Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
This is where I get confused. We've clearly shifted over the past month into accererating businesses that are taking it seriously. We are kept in the dark about how a majority of these new Florida cases are spreading but we can safely assume that it has a lot to do with gatherings and prolonged contact. Even if someone happens to be infected at the mouse house, it would be almost certainly asymptomatic. People will be screened at the literal entrance. The odds of a sick person even wanting to go to a hot theme park is dramatically lowered and the masks are there to catch any outlier that might be there. Most of my research shows that asymptomatic people are less contagious in a community setting. That is without wearing a mask btw. It sounds like these asymptomatic phenomenons are happening at households or workplaces where your guard is down and interacting closely with people for hours on end.
The latest data I've seen on when a person is most contagious indicated the opposite. In a study population who had screened positive, but were asymptomatic, their viral burden (measured by viral culture) actually peaked before the onset of symptoms, and steadily declined thereafter, reaching undetectable levels 7-10 days later, if I remember the details correctly.

This is why I don't have faith that temperature screens at Disney World will do anything useful.

I'm working out right now, but I can link the studies (done by the CDC and NIH) after I'm done.
 

Dizneykid

Active Member
The latest data I've seen on when a person is most contagious indicated the opposite. In a study population who had screened positive, but were asymptomatic, their viral burden (measured by viral culture) actually peaked before the onset of symptoms, and steadily declined thereafter, reaching undetectable levels 7-10 days later, if I remember the details correctly.

This is why I don't have faith that temperature screens at Disney World will do anything useful.

I'm working out right now, but I can link the studies (done by the CDC and NIH) after I'm done.
That would be great to see the link thanks. I don't doubt it but I was actually pointing out that asymptomatic spread has been studied as more likely in households and dramatically less in the community . I'll look for that link too 😉 It holds true with most infectious disease and I'd say they have even less ability to spread with a mask on and distancing etc.

I agree that temp checks won't provide any guaranteed measure of anything but it would at least catch people with obvious illness. It's important.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
That would be great to see the link thanks. I don't doubt it but I was actually pointing out that asymptomatic spread has been studied as more likely in households and dramatically less in the community . I'll look for that link too 😉 It holds true with most infectious disease and I'd say they have even less ability to spread with a mask on and distancing etc.

I agree that temp checks won't provide any guaranteed measure of anything but it would at least catch people with obvious illness. It's important.
Here's the link:


The intention of the paper was to summarize recommendations for quarantine in cases where testing is not readily available, but it includes some very enlightening data they used in compiling those recommendations. Two caveats are that the paper is almost two months old, so there might be newer, superseding information by now, and the sample population they studied was relatively small.

EDIT: I'm not sure why, but the hyperlink displayed on this screen is not for the same article that I linked, but clicking on it does send you to the correct paper that I'm referencing.
 

Juliekat

New Member
Do you think that they will delay the opening date?

I understand that Disney may be one of the largest employers in Florida. And economy needs to move forward so people can earn a living. But Honestly in my opinion they should not re-open yet. Take the extra time to make sure it's safe and then double and triple check. Can you imagine an outbreak related to a Disney vacation. Masks or no masks, that would be a whole lot of contact tracing.
Besides your not going to experience Disney as it should be, with fireworks, parades, hugs and meet and greets from charters.
I know lots of people are divided and have opinions. But this comment is just that! My opinion..
 

Dizneykid

Active Member
Here's the link:


The intention of the paper was to summarize recommendations for quarantine in cases where testing is not readily available, but it includes some very enlightening data they used in compiling those recommendations. Two caveats are that the paper is almost two months old, so there might be newer, superseding information by now, and the sample population they studied was relatively small.

EDIT: I'm not sure why, but the hyperlink displayed on this screen is not for the same article that I linked, but clicking on it does send you to the correct paper that I'm referencing.

Thanks 😊. It's a lot to read and it will take a sec. Does it happen to mention differences between household and community? This is one thing that I feel has been dodged a lot in discussions from the health officials. We manage communicable disease in part by differentiating between close contact and casual.
 

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Thanks 😊. It's a lot to read and it will take a sec. Does it happen to mention differences between household and community? This is one thing that I feel has been dodged a lot in discussions from the health officials. We manage communicable disease in part by differentiating between close contact and casual.
No. That wasn't within the scope of the paper. It is more concerned with measuring culturable viral loads and detectable viral RNA at various stages of the illness.
 

nokahoma

Active Member
Why? If the procedures they are putting in place were determined to be safe with 1,000 new cases per day in the state then why don't they work with 9,000 new cases?

It was pretty much guaranteed that there would be some people who had the virus at WDW. Why does it matter that there might be more? With the level of contagiousness of this virus, if the procedures aren't going to work, it would have led to a major increase in cases within a few days starting at the lower level.

This spike is clearly related to people not social distancing. They wouldn't have closed bars if they didn't have data showing bars to be an issue. They wouldn't be begging people not to have private gatherings if they didn't have data showing there is spread happening at gatherings.

At WDW there will be social distancing in place, there will be a requirement to wear a mask and there will be temperature screenings to screen for symptomatic people who are going to be the most contagious. With respect to the way WDW will operate, it doesn't matter if 100,000 people per day are getting infected at bars.

How well will they be able to actually enforce social distancing inside the park? If somebody slides their mask down below their chin, or lets it dangle from one ear, will Disney employees actually stop them and make them put it back on the right way? Will they have employees monitoring the queues to make sure guests abide by the six feet markers on the ground? Will they actually kick somebody out of the parks for not following the rules? I realize Disney is better across the board at guest experience than other theme parks, but I've been to a park that had social distancing and mandatory mask precautions in place, and once people were past the front gate those went out the window. There was no enforcement whatsoever. People were piling right on top of each other in line, despite the floor markers, and removing their masks to talk--as if somehow waiting for a ride made you immune to the virus. I'd like to think Disney will be much better at enforcing its policies than a Six Flags, but given how this whole thing has become absurdly politicized, and the extreme resistance some put forth towards masks and distancing, it'll be a challenge for Disney to adequately enforce that stuff all of the time, throughout all of the parks. And with cases exploding in Florida and throughout the South, the smart and moral decision at this point is to not open just yet.
 

JohnD

Well-Known Member
No. I wouldn't want to go during the summer anyway, COVID or no COVID. Too hot. Which is why I have the Silver Pass. I'm looking forward to going in October instead. Just waiting. . . on my pass to be extended so I can make park reservations.
 

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