Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[havoc315]

Your sources say there are 15k covid hospitalizations in Florida, only 500 of which are in the Orlando areas. Do you know the number in Miami? You should probably know that before declaring everything I said not true "at all".

It's not a question of raw total numbers. Your statement was that almost the entire growth was in Miami. In fact, there has been significant growth in hospitalizations many regions of the state, including in Orange County. The question is how close are the hospitals to capacity (regular hospital capacity, ICU capacity, and "surge" capacity). By this measure, Orange County isn't quite in a critical danger zone, but warning lights should be starting to flash.

 

[Sparksfly]

Regarding death tolls....

Interesting read indeed...

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'a substantial undercount' of actual tally, Yale study finds

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were nearly 19% higher than what would normally be expected, the study said.

www.cnbc.com

 

[havoc315]

The 7 day rolling average of daily new hospitalizations for the entire state are up about 12.5% from where they were throughout April and May. However, the 7 day rolling average of cases is 3-6 times higher than it was during that time period for over a week now. This indicates a MUCH higher percentage of cases that don't require hospitalizations.

The 7 day rolling average of daily fatalities has not gone up in any perceptible manner and is lower than it was in April. The daily case rolling average doubled from the steady state over two weeks ago. I would expect to see some noticeable increase in fatalities by now.

It could be due to the virus becoming less virulent or the age breakdown of those becoming infected.

There are often more unknowns than knowns. Which is why I gave such a large range for potential deaths.
But it's incorrect to say the 7-day rolling average has not gone up in a perceptible manner. It's gone up 30% in the last month. From 30 per day at the end of May to 39 per day end of June.

The simplest explanation: We know testing only captures a portion of the positive cases. In March/April, there was much higher infection than reflected in the testing. April/May saw a legitimate decrease in infections. The real spike in cases started in mid-June... There is significant lag time in deaths. (a lag between the infection causing death... then another lag in the reporting of the death as a Covid death)... Thus, if the big spike started in mid-June, we would be just starting to see an increase in death now.

Again, this is just one hypothesis based on the available data. There can be other contributing factors as well: the age distribution, the virus becoming less virulent, better and more educated treatment being offered.

Let's take a look again in another 2-3 weeks. It would be very surprising (but not impossible) if the numbers of deaths did not increase significantly in July. Even if it's no more deadly than the flu, you should then still be looking at 100 deaths per day based on current infection rates.

 

[Abbs]

There are often more unknowns than knowns. Which is why I gave such a large range for potential deaths.
But it's incorrect to say the 7-day rolling average has not gone up in a perceptible manner. It's gone up 30% in the last month. From 30 per day at the end of May to 39 per day end of June.

The simplest explanation: We know testing only captures a portion of the positive cases. In March/April, there was much higher infection than reflected in the testing. April/May saw a legitimate decrease in infections. The real spike in cases started in mid-June... There is significant lag time in deaths. (a lag between the infection causing death... then another lag in the reporting of the death as a Covid death)... Thus, if the big spike started in mid-June, we would be just starting to see an increase in death now.

Again, this is just one hypothesis based on the available data. There can be other contributing factors as well: the age distribution, the virus becoming less virulent, better and more educated treatment being offered.

Let's take a look again in another 2-3 weeks. It would be very surprising (but not impossible) if the numbers of deaths did not increase significantly in July. Even if it's no more deadly than the flu, you should then still be looking at 100 deaths per day based on current infection rates.



You can find it. Last report I saw had about 500 current hospitalizations for Covid in Orange County, a bit over 1,000 in Miami-Dade.... factoring in population, on a per capita basis, about the same level of hospitalization.

Read the dashboard. https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

 

[Horizons '83]

Regarding death tolls....

Interesting read indeed...

Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is 'a substantial undercount' of actual tally, Yale study finds

The 781,000 total deaths in the United States in the three months through May 30 were nearly 19% higher than what would normally be expected, the study said.

www.cnbc.com

Funny, I feel like it would be the opposite based off a few friends opinions that are in the industry.

 

[seascape]

I hate to say it but Disney needs to delay their opening. It is crazy for any Orlando park to be open when the number of cases is skyrocketing in Orlando.

 

[Abbs]

I hate to say it but Disney needs to delay their opening. It is crazy for any Orlando park to be open when the number of cases is skyrocketing in Orlando.

Universal has been open over a month, no contact tracing has shown any relation to the park opening..Sea World has been open, Busch Gardens....and Disney's rules are way more strict than what any of those places have in place.

 

[Sparksfly]

Funny, I feel like it would be the opposite based off a few friends opinions that are in the industry.

As someone who has many family members who are drs. As well as those who work in positions in government who receive information on a continual basis I assure you this has been a matter of discussion and suspicion for a while now. Reports of people having strokes and heart attacks after "recovery" started surfacing a couple months ago. The fact that this attacks and thickens the blood is a serious issue and its causing prolonged illness and death after a patient is deemed "recovered". We are still trying to wrap our heads around this..and find treatment of this... which leads back to the importance of delaying reopenings within the magnitude of Disney World right now until we have a better grasp on and idea of exactly what were dealing with.

 

[Sparksfly]

Universal has been open over a month, no contact tracing has shown any relation to the park opening..Sea World has been open, Busch Gardens....and Disney's rules are way more strict than what any of those places have in place.

As the state hits nearly 10,000 cases per day.

I'm not laughing at the situation by any means, but some of the "information" being spat around in here is hilarious...horrifically so.

 

[Abbs]

As the state hits nearly 10,000 cases per day.

I'm not laughing at the situation by any means, but some of the "information" being spat around in here is hilarious...horrifically so.

but why is your information correct but any information that talks about state opening is all incorrect and horrific? What makes YOUR information any more credible or better than anyone else's and only your opinion on what should happen can possibly be correct?

 

[seascape]

Universal has been open over a month, no contact tracing has shown any relation to the park opening..Sea World has been open, Busch Gardens....and Disney's rules are way more strict than what any of those places have in place.

Just remember this, Universal has no unions and so no independent source of information on team members health. I think Disney should delay opening and if Universal and Seaworld want to risk the health of their employees and paying customers let them.

 

[milordsloth]

Just remember this, Universal has no unions and so no independent source of information on team members health. I think Disney should delay opening and if Universal and Seaworld want to risk the health of their employees and paying customers let them.

This makes no sense. If Universal and Seaworld are able to be open, so should Disney.

 

[Abbs]

This makes no sense. If Universal and Seaworld are able to be open, so should Disney.

And you can easily follow Disney's unions on facebook, they have done a lot for CMs to go back and feel safe. NOT ALL CMs are against this opening. But out of 70,000 employees you are bound to have differing opinions.

 

[Sparksfly]

but why is your information correct but any information that talks about state opening is all incorrect and horrific? What makes YOUR information any more credible or better than anyone else's and only your opinion on what should happen can possibly be correct?

Id appreciate you not put words in my mouth because that is not what I said.

However to conclude that Universal/SeaWorld's reopening has played no part in the spread of a virus that is now in records numbers in the state in which they reside is on its face ridiculous. Itd be interesting to see where you're getting this information from.

 

[milordsloth]

Id appreciate you not put words in my mouth because that is not what I said.

However to conclude that Universal/SeaWorld's reopening has played no part in the spread of a virus that is now in records numbers in the state in which they reside is on its face ridiculous. Itd be interesting to see where you're getting this information from.

I mean, you said "approaching 10,000" which was true on 6/26... and you are saying it as fact that the theme parks are playing a part in the spread. I'd be interested where you got that information.

 

[Abbs]

Id appreciate you not put words in my mouth because that is not what I said.

However to conclude that Universal/SeaWorld's reopening has played no part in the spread of a virus that is now in records numbers in the state in which they reside is on its face ridiculous. Itd be interesting to see where you're getting this information from.

a crystal ball........there was a news report on it, where do you think I got it? I am sure you can easily find it.

 

[techgeek]

States and cities across the country are rapidly rolling back or delaying the opening of inside dining rooms, because it’s becoming increasingly clear that community spread is coming from situations in which people are indoors and without masks... mainly while eating or drinking. As always the situation is rapidly evolving, but this has been a pretty significant and consistent recent change in public health guidance.

Can Disney operate without ANY indoor dining spaces being open, across parks and resorts? In some ways, probably... around World Showcase lagoon relying on festival kiosks for capacity, for instance. At MK or Studios? Not without some major adaptations. Can an acceptable guest experience be provided when guests are sent back to their hotels at night and only have ‘grab and go’ options for food?

I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility that you’ll see Florida or Orange County close dining rooms in the near future.

 

[milordsloth]

I haven't seen this statement from DeSantis yesterday on this thread. Makes me hopeful of no push to the opening on 7/11:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Tuesday that his state is “not going back” on reopening as thousands of new COVID-19 cases continue to be reported every day.

DeSantis told reporters that the state will not follow Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) move to pause reopening, according to Axios.

“We're not going back, closing things,” he said. “I don't think that that's really what's driving it. People going to a business is not what's driving it. I think when you see the younger folks — I think a lot of it is more just social interactions, so that's natural.”

 

[Abbs]

I haven't seen this statement from DeSantis yesterday on this thread. Makes me hopeful of no push to the opening on 7/11:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Tuesday that his state is “not going back” on reopening as thousands of new COVID-19 cases continue to be reported every day.

DeSantis told reporters that the state will not follow Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) move to pause reopening, according to Axios.

“We're not going back, closing things,” he said. “I don't think that that's really what's driving it. People going to a business is not what's driving it. I think when you see the younger folks — I think a lot of it is more just social interactions, so that's natural.”

And if anyone thinks he will follow democratic Governor Newsome on what hes currently doing...HA!

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

I haven't seen this statement from DeSantis yesterday on this thread. Makes me hopeful of no push to the opening on 7/11:

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) said Tuesday that his state is “not going back” on reopening as thousands of new COVID-19 cases continue to be reported every day.

DeSantis told reporters that the state will not follow Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) move to pause reopening, according to Axios.

“We're not going back, closing things,” he said. “I don't think that that's really what's driving it. People going to a business is not what's driving it. I think when you see the younger folks — I think a lot of it is more just social interactions, so that's natural.”

Didn't they close bars? I'm confused.