Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Two points of disagreement here. First is somewhat anecdotal but it does come from my primary care doctor. His claim from the research he has seen from the antibody test is that the test is about 50% accurate either way. Meaning it is just as likely to give a false positive as it is a false negative and these both come up about 50% of the time. Thus there is no way in knowing if your results are accurate as the test is essentially a coin toss. Sorry for anyone who got one and think they have some level of immunity.

Second, as a mathematician myself, I see no way that any of the data can be at all useful if someone who had the common cold could result in a positive test. This completely corrupts the data set as there is no way to then determine the "trends, differences between populations, changes from baseline or tracking the titer levels" as these could be caused by differences attributable to the common cold or any other coronavirus. Taking into account the first point with these being as accurate as a coin toss and any research being conducted here is for one thing and one thing only that I happen to understand very well. Grant money and total number of publications.
That's why it is only one tool among many being used. They are mostly looking for differences from known baselines.

And it is not being used by clinicians to make any informed decisions for individual patient care (or at least, it shouldn't). From the limited data I've seen, elevated antibody levels post-recovery for known positive COVID-19 cases seem like a pretty sensitive marker, but the specificity is too poor to be of use for anything but research purposes. Once again, making inferences based on departures from known baselines.
 

marni1971

Park History nut
Premium Member

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
5C57B9D5-B8AF-4CA0-A977-4CEE507E295E.jpeg
 

donsullivan

Premium Member
It would be great if Disney announced tomorrow that they changed their decision on Splash Mountain. I wonder what the return policy is on several trash bags full of crap.;)
There are absolutely no indications the actual closure is imminent anyway. There is a high likelihood this will be open for another year or more before construction actually starts.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Agreed, but good luck figuring that out. All we know is they represent Covid deaths, likely occurring sometime in the last few days or weeks.

But it's why we don't focus on any single day... we look at the trend and the averages. Both of which have been rising.

But we do know, this is how the 120 reported deaths today breakdown of when they actually died. All data from the DOH website and the line data

April - 1 death age 32
May - 3 deaths avg age 79
June 1-10 - 12 deaths avg age 75
June 11-20 - 17 deaths avg age 76
June 20-30 - 46 deaths avg age 78
July 1-8 - 31 deaths avg age 71

10 deaths unidentified

And yes the July 1-8 numbers will go up and be added to counts later this week and next week. Hopefully not by much by that is unknown. There are deaths that happen today that won't be counted for weeks, then again hopefully that will go down with better treatments and younger age but to early to tell for sure.
 
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DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
But we do know, this is how the 120 reported deaths today breakdown of when they actually died. All data from the DOH website and the line data

April - 1 death age 32
May - 3 deaths avg age 79
June 1-10 - 12 deaths avg age 75
June 11-20 - 17 deaths avg age 76
June 20-30 - 46 deaths avg age 78
July 1-8 - 31 deaths avg age 71

10 deaths unidentified

And yes the July 1-8 numbers will go up and be added to counts later this week and next week. Hopefully not by much by that is unknown. There are deaths that happen today that won't be counted for weeks, then again hopefully that will go down with better treatments and younger age but to early to tell for sure.
There has to be a better way.
 

Kman101

Well-Known Member
There are absolutely no indications the actual closure is imminent anyway. There is a high likelihood this will be open for another year or more before construction actually starts.

Exactly. I've been hearing 2023. Not sure if it means 'done by then' or 'going down' then. But it will likely be a while.

Disney needs to crack down on eBay resellers but they won't because they have their money so what do they care?

It's obnoxious though to see bags and bags and bags of merch. It's blatantly obvious what they're doing.
 

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