Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
DisneyOutsider said:
They're not obligated to report covid-positive employees, and you can bet that they won't. With the sheer volume of cast members at Disney and the lack of testing going on (combined with the high positivity rate currently in central FL), you can take it to the bank that there are CM's working in the parks right now who are Covid-positive. Universal as well.

If that is something that makes you uneasy, it's probably best not to visit right now. Doesn't mean that they contracted it at the parks, but its very naive to think that none of these employees have Covid.
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Small correction. You can guarantee there are people who are SARS-CoV-2 positive. COVID-19 is a disease that is caused in some percentage of people with that contract the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Somebody who is completely asymptomatic does not have COVID-19 although they seem to be able to spread the virus to others.

Similar to how somebody can be HIV+ and spread it but not have AIDS. The difference being that a much, much higher percentage of people that are HIV+ will develop AIDS than are SARS-CoV-2 positive and develop COVID-19.

In reality, the daily new "case" count should really be number of new virus carriers identified.
 
carolina_yankee

carolina_yankee

Well-Known Member
I don't think it's possible to except there will be no cases of COVID among CMs or guests. There are no free passes and no way to guarantee infections won't occur unless people completely stay away from other people. A Disney CM will get COVID. A Disney guest will get COVID. It may be traceable to the park. It may not be. The question isn't whether not COVID will happen, the question is whether or not the spread of COVID from that occurrence will be mitigated or absent altogether. If people observe precautions, that should be possible.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Orange County's daily case number seems to have come down quite a bit and the positive percentage (which they don't break out new cases at the county level) has come down a bit. If Universal being open was causing a problem, I would not expect this trend towards lower numbers in the county.

Skimming through the county report, Miami-Dade is, by far, the worst outbreak. The county makes up about 12.5% of the population of Florida but had 22% of new cases yesterday. Broward is also a problem but not to the same degree.

I do find it interesting that two of the counties that had the most restrictions, were slowest to reopen and have had mask requirements for a long time are having the worst outbreaks.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Exactly...

Only 61000...Is far more than any US studies underway.
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Through 7/2, Florida tested 271,978 people for antibodies. 3.98% were positive which is probably a high estimate for the population because a lot of those are targeted towards first responders and health care providers who are most likely to have been exposed.

Nowhere near the level for herd immunity at this time, that we agree on for sure.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Orange County's daily case number seems to have come down quite a bit and the positive percentage (which they don't break out new cases at the county level) has come down a bit. If Universal being open was causing a problem, I would not expect this trend towards lower numbers in the county.
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Yeah that's because as much as people want to bash the theme parks being open, it's one of the safest and most regulated places to be in Florida that's not your couch.
 
beertiki

beertiki

Well-Known Member
figmentfan423 said:
***FYI*** Shades of Green closed until August 12th
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This might also be due to active duty military might be prohibited from traveling to Florida. Here in Key West, all active duty are prohibited from going to restaurants, bars, gyms, salons ECT. All non essential businesses off base basically. Their families, who do not have to follow orders are strongly encouraged. There are also some bases that will not allow travel to certain hot spots. The military does not want a Covid outbreak on a base, you need to get permission to travel a certain distance away from your base. I think more than a few have been denied travel requests to Florida.
 
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havoc315

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
How many people do you "know" that languished for 6+ weeks before dying of covid? For those, how many days was it before they were hospitalized?

I understand there is a lag to death. The best data I could find said that the median time from symptom onset to death is 18.5 days. That means half die quicker than that. The daily number of cases in Florida had at least tripled from the prior baseline by 6/18. It has been 20 days since then which means that at least half of the patients that are going to die from the 6/18 time frame should have died already.

The increase to over seven times the baseline happened by 6/25. While the current data is only through 12 days since then, a significant number of people who are going to die from that date should have died by now.

Of course there will be some more deaths than there were. There are more people in the 65+ age group getting infected (at least testing positive) than there were in May. However, the majority of the spike infections are in the not really vulnerable age group.

In Florida, the case fatality rate for age 54 and under is 0.16%. That doesn't account for any of the widely agreed significant number of asymptomatic or mild cases that were never tested. Even in the worst of these age groups, 45-54, the rate is 0.47%. Again, not accounting at all for undetected cases.

Now lets really put this into perspective. This page has the odds of dying within a given time period for any given age using 2014 data from the social security administration. You know what the odds of a 45 year old man dying from any cause within a year is? It is 0.31%. For a 54 year old male it is 0.72%.

Even if you take a very low estimate of there being twice the actual number of cases, a 45 year old male is 32% more likely to die from any other cause then they are to die IF THEY CONTRACT COVID-19. The chance of contracting it is not anywhere near 100%. It can be unequivocally stated that for somebody under 55 years old, you are FAR more likely to die of some random cause within the next year than you are to contract AND die from COVID-19.

Now can we step off of the doom and gloom ledge just a little bit?
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And like clockwork... Florida reports a record number of deaths today. 119, shattering the prior record of 83.
The last 3 days have have 200 deaths.... as bad a stretch in Florida as the whole pandemic. This is deaths from the June infections, really just starting to show up in the stats.
I won't pretend to know anything with certainty, but I suspect there will be lots of 100+ days over the rest of the month.
 
O

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
havoc315 said:
And like clockwork... Florida reports a record number of deaths today. 119, shattering the prior record of 83.
The last 3 days have have 200 deaths.... as bad a stretch in Florida as the whole pandemic. This is deaths from the June infections, really just starting to show up in the stats.
I won't pretend to know anything with certainty, but I suspect there will be lots of 100+ days over the rest of the month.
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it would be better to know WHEN these deaths came from
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
Through 7/2, Florida tested 271,978 people for antibodies. 3.98% were positive which is probably a high estimate for the population because a lot of those are targeted towards first responders and health care providers who are most likely to have been exposed.

Nowhere near the level for herd immunity at this time, that we agree on for sure.
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The accuracy rates on antibody tests are horrendous - Unless something crazy happened this week to change that?

That’s what happens when it’s rushed, run by fools and left to pharma.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
oceanbreeze77 said:
9000 cases today...HORRID positivity rate, and they switched around the ay you view the data
View attachment 482350
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ugh...
WDW Pro said:
New York deaths per 100,000: 118
Florida deaths per 100,000: 16
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New York infections now: not many (not so in March)
Florida infections now: many (not so in March)

The hoaxers are starting to remind me of Flyer fans: lose 5-2 and talk about the scrub fight In the third period.

Ugh...not good. I’ll actually go back to working now to cheer myself up.
 
Figgy1

Figgy1

Well-Known Member
beertiki said:
This might also be due to active duty military might be prohibited from traveling to Florida. Here in Key West, all active duty are prohibited from going to restaurants, bars, gyms, salons ECT. All non essential businesses off base basically. Their families, who do not have to follow orders are strongly encouraged. There are also some bases that will not allow travel to certain hot spots. The military does not want a Covid outbreak on a base, you need to get permission to travel a certain distance away from your base. I think more than a few have been denied travel requests to Florida.
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Florida is excluded from travel in Bolded letters. SOG's page says due to pandemic in Florida. I miss Target:(:(:(
 
Heppenheimer

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
The accuracy rates on antibody tests are horrendous - Unless something crazy happened this week to change that?

That’s what happens when it’s rushed, run by fools and left to pharma.
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The reason for antibody testing is more for epidemiology purposes than for individual clinical decision-making. It has some role in the former, almost no role in the latter at this time.
 

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