Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disstevefan1 said:
This thread is moot. WDW is reopening as scheduled.
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Wisdom isn’t a given in decisions cause they’re made.

I think it’s a complex ball of issues that has no real good consensus.

The best move is probably to slide it back to Labor Day to see how the trends level out...it’s not that far off...
But that doesn’t appear to be the play. It is what it is.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
donsullivan said:
Very interesting and reasonably balanced perspective on the importance of WDW re-opening.

www.cnn.com

'It's the heart of the brand': Disney World reopens as coronavirus cases spike in Florida

Cinderella Castle has sat silent for 116 days.
www.cnn.com www.cnn.com
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There’s been a balancing act the whole time.

I think anyone who doesn’t look at this as extremely complicated from the start is not looking at it correctly.

I don’t know if the argument “heart of the brand” can be made though...increasing and increasing numbers of Disney “customers” won’t set foot near a Disney park as time moves on. They want it that way. Especially in the US.

Not easy...for sure. They like control and this gives them as little as they could have imagined.
 
Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Wisdom isn’t a given in decisions cause they’re made.

I think it’s a complex ball of issues that has no real good consensus.

The best move is probably to slide it back to Labor Day to see how the trends level out...it’s not that far off...
But that doesn’t appear to be the play. It is what it is.
Click to expand...

We all agree this is all guess work, and Disney made its best guess.

I doubt the numbers by Labor Day will be anything significantly different, that’s just a guess on my part.

In every decision Disney makes, besides the shareholder, the priority is to be PC. Disney surely weighed both the shareholder concerns and their PC concerns when they made this decision.

Instead of hiding from COVID, WDW is dealing with it head on, just like Universal and Seaworld.

In looking at the vlogs WDW spent real money and manpower with all the partitions everywhere, not just stickers on the ground. Looking good.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
There’s been a balancing act the whole time.

I think anyone who doesn’t look at this as extremely complicated from the start is not looking at it correctly.

I don’t know if the argument “heart of the brand” can be made though...increasing and increasing numbers of Disney “customers” won’t set foot near a Disney park as time moves on. They want it that way. Especially in the US.

Not easy...for sure. They like control and this gives them as little as they could have imagined.
Click to expand...
Judging from them releasing 2020 tickets already and offering a big discount for AP holders on resort rooms they aren't getting as many people as they hoped.
 
H

havoc315

Well-Known Member
WDW Pro said:
New York deaths per 100,000: 118
Florida deaths per 100,000: 16
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1. That's like saying the 2019 Mets lost more games than the 2020 Marlins. New York already had it's peak... Florida is just starting.
2. That's like saying someone with $100 million isn't wealthy because they have a lot less money than Bill Gates
3. Both Florida and New York became aware of the pandemic hitting the United States at the same time, so they both had the same opportunity to take steps that would eventually improve the situation. Yet, New York had about 500 infections reported today, Florida had 9,000. So while NY was taking steps to reduce infection, Florida was taking steps that allows infection to rage out of control.
4. So what? Is this a contest? Is there a prize for having fewer deaths than someone else? If that's the case, our whole country is losing majorly. When this is all over, Florida will have FAR more than 16 deaths per 100,000. It's unlikely to get as bad as NY, considering how early NY got hit. But so what? If Florida ultimately suffers 20,000 deaths, as opposed to NY's 30,000 deaths, is that supposed to give comfort to all the mourning families?
 
T

techgeek

Well-Known Member
SoFloMagic said:
Can we shift to re-closure speculation?
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I keep trying to figure out what development, number, negative news story, incident, etc.. would even trigger re-closure at this point. Aside from extremely low attendance / bookings being a fraction of what they expect, I got nothing.

The state is not going to shut them down. Orange County isn’t going to shut them down. They aren’t going to shut themselves down. Pretty much the only option left is for their customers to effectively shut them down, and even that I see as a rollback rather then a hard close. Limit resort reopenings. Close some parks 2 days a week or more. Mothball Epcot for a few months as an extreme move. Things like that.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
Jrb1979 said:
Judging from them releasing 2020 tickets already and offering a big discount for AP holders on resort rooms they aren't getting as many people as they hoped.
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They need to lower their expectations for resort guests. Demand isn't there, it's not going to be there for a while. If they want to fill the parks as much as they can within their capacity limits they just need to shift more AP reservations.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disstevefan1 said:
We all agree this is all guess work, and Disney made its best guess.

I doubt the numbers by Labor Day will be anything significantly different, that’s just a guess on my part.

In every decision Disney makes, besides the shareholder, the priority is to be PC. Disney surely weighed both the shareholder concerns and their PC concerns when they made this decision.

Instead of hiding from COVID, WDW is dealing with it head on, just like Universal and Seaworld.

In looking at the vlogs WDW spent real money and manpower with all the partitions everywhere, not just stickers on the ground. Looking good.
Click to expand...
There are travelers all across the US jumping off the Florida travel train everyday the spike in Florida and the booboo faces from Tallahassee is blasted everywhere. It’s even on Fox 😂

It’s not about public policy...travel is non-essential and disposable income. People have to WANT To go there.

I think there’s this illusion that there’s an army of APs and DVC to make Disney money if they want it. That isn’t close to reality. You can’t take 50,000,000 gate clicks down to 20,000,000 and clean profits. That’s insane.

But I don’t have to preach this. Disney knows...that’s the only “opinion” that will matter.
 
W

WDWTrojan

Well-Known Member
techgeek said:
I keep trying to figure out what development, number, negative news story, incident, etc.. would even trigger re-closure at this point. Aside from extremely low attendance / bookings being a fraction of what they expect, I got nothing.

The state is not going to shut them down. Orange County isn’t going to shut them down. They aren’t going to shut themselves down. Pretty much the only option left is for their customers to effectively shut them down, and even that I see as a rollback rather then a hard close. Limit resort reopenings. Close some parks 2 days a week or more. Mothball Epcot for a few months as an extreme move. Things like that.
Click to expand...

I think the only thing that would create another shut down is hospitals truly at capacity across Orange County. Miami-Date shut down again, and I think Orange Country would too if they had to.
 
O

oceanbreeze77

Well-Known Member
techgeek said:
I keep trying to figure out what development, number, negative news story, incident, etc.. would even trigger re-closure at this point. Aside from extremely low attendance / bookings being a fraction of what they expect, I got nothing.
Click to expand...
Id say once Florida hits the official surge state. And they're not far from it. Surge in hospitals, morgue space, things like that.
 
Heppenheimer

Heppenheimer

Well-Known Member
dpla5762 said:
Really though, is it at all useful for epidemiology purposes if all a positive result could mean is that you may have at one time had the common cold? Read this quote directly from the CDC's page that describes what a positive antibody test means.

"A positive test result shows you may have antibodies from an infection with the virus that causes COVID-19. However, there is a chance a positive result means that you have antibodies from an infection with a virus from the same family of viruses (called coronaviruses), such as the one that causes the common cold."
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It can give researchers rough estimates on numbers of people that have recovered or how long post-infection immunity lasts. They're not looking to confirm or refute individual cases, but rather trends, differences between populations, changes from baseline or tracking the titer levels. More for research purposes than anything else, and its only one auxiliary tool among many
 
mickeymiss

mickeymiss

Well-Known Member
Are they mentioning what drives the numbers? How do we interpret data and make business decisions if we don't know what the transmission sources even are? It matters a lot. We walked around our outlet shopping area today and almost eveyrthing went out of business. It crushed me. Popular restaurants that had been there for years. All of it had been thriving before....gone. I feel like Universal going full steam ahead without any apparent problem is a good sign of theme park success. What am I missing? Nursing homes drive most cases in my state, for example. What is it for Florida? We deserve to know.
 

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