Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

Disstevefan1

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
legwand77 said:
Overall state positivity rose today to 14.4% from the trend down in the 11 range. Of course concerning, lets investigate why that might be the case. Looking back Florida historically had the same behavior last week 4 days of decline and then a big jump up and then fell back and continued to trend down. While the jump did not occur on the same day last week, one could suspect it is a data dump. Something to watch.

Also looked at where the positivity was high to bring the state rate up. It is all South Florida, Dade county etc. In fact Orange County reported a positivity rate of only 7.4% lowest it has been for a long time, might have to go back to May for that, took a quick look so not sure but it has been at least a month for sure. At the rate it is declining next week it could be 2-3%. I don't think it will but that is the trend .

Orange County has had theme parks open for almost two months, Disney for 2-3 weeks, positivity rate below the target rate of 10%. Hospitalizations and capacity is pretty much the same today as it was back in June.

There really isn't reason at all to reclose the parks. Masks might be working , mitigation/physical distancing might be working, virus might me mutating to a less dangerous one, might be all of the above, but the trends in the Orlando area are looking better.
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You bring up all good points. Even if you trust the numbers (there have been reporting problems, and as you say "data dumps" could be seen as a spike when there is no spike) , also as you say south Florida is skewing the states overall numbers, South Florida is a LONG WAY from the theme parks! The two populations do not mingle all that much.
 
Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
Tony the Tigger said:
So sick of hearing people saying other metrics are down. Logically and obviously, that’s temporary. You don’t die the day after you get the virus. There is time from infection to symptoms, symptoms to diagnosis, diagnosis to hospitalization, and hospitalization to death.

So if the numbers had previously been trending down, and then cases shoot up, the rest are coming, that’s irrefutable, and there is no point citing later stages being lower for a minute.

The only possible variable is they are learning how to treat it better, so you may end up with a lower death percentage.

The downside is even asymptomatic people are showing lung damage and other issues.
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Objectively, the virus isn’t killing at the same rates as before. I mean it’s RECORD CASES news basically every day for a month, yet deaths aren’t even close to records. The media switched to pounding cases because deaths slowed so much and they needed another way to fear monger.

Yeah, you don’t die the day after...you most probably don’t die at all and particularly if you are generally healthy, which more people are the more who get infected. Early on, weakest died first. Death rates will continue to fall with more cases confirmed. The amount of unreported cases is likely significantly higher, making any reported death rate basically useless.

Give me a break with the lung damage and other issues for asymptomatic people. Don’t show me 5 articles on it either...it’s not a thing just because a few reported it and not enough information can be known so early.

You’re an alarmist for sure because you’re not even sticking to the facts now. You’re bringing up asymptomatic lung damage..I mean, just stop.

Also, don’t tell me I’m callous. This sucks. It sucks people died from this. It sucks some people can’t follow simple instructions and yes, some deaths were preventable just like the 61,000 flu deaths a few years ago. This is definitely worse for this year. We will see if it continues. Judging by death rates and unreported cases being likely huge, I’m not worried in the long term anymore than I am about other viruses.
 
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schuelma

schuelma

Well-Known Member
Chef Mickey said:
Objectively, the virus isn’t killing at the same rates as before. I mean it’s RECORD CASES news basically every day for a month, yet deaths aren’t even close to records. The media switched to pounding cases because deaths slowed so much and they needed another way to fear monger.
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Yes, it appears true that treatments, etc. have improved and the death rate will not be as high as it was in April.

And yet deaths are increasing week over week and they will continue to increase for at least the next 3-4 weeks in all likelihood.

I would add one more point- a 1 to 1 comparison of cases to deaths from April to now is not valid because testing has greatly expanded. If testing was what it is now back in April, cases would have been much much higher.
 
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legwand77

Well-Known Member
Chef Mickey said:
Objectively, the virus isn’t killing at the same rates as before.

Yeah, you don’t die the day after...you most probably don’t die at all and particularly if you are generally healthy, which more people are the more who get infected. Early on, weakest died first. Death rates will continue to fall with more cases confirmed. The amount of unreported cases is likely significantly higher, making any reported death rate basically useless.

Give me a break with the lung damage and other issues for asymptomatic people. Don’t show me 5 articles on it either...it’s not a thing just because a few reported it and not enough information can be known so early.

You’re an alarmist for sure because you’re not even sticking to the facts now. You’re bringing up asymptomatic lung damage..I mean, just stop.
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Probably don't die, is an understatement, since it is a Disney board, let's look at Orange County. Using Orange County numbers first you would have to get infected, which chances are already very low on that and then only if you were infected chances of dying is only .5%. That is for all ages. Less than 50-60 yrs old it is much lower. For kids it is nonexistent.
 
Jrb1979

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
legwand77 said:
Probably don't die, is an understatement, since it is a Disney board, let's look at Orange County. In Orange County first you would have to get infected, which chances are already very low on that and then only if you were infected chances of dying is only .5%. That is for all ages. Less than 50-60 it is much lower.
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What about the other issues that this virus causes from lung damage or is that no important as long as the Rat and his friends stay open. Ya'll would be losing your minds where I live as parks can't open this there is a vaccine or better treatment options
 
Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
schuelma said:
Yes, it appears true that treatments, etc. have improved and the death rate will not be as high as it was in April.

And yet deaths are increasing week over week and they will continue to increase for at least the next 3-4 weeks in all likelihood.

I would add one more point- a 1 to 1 comparison of cases to deaths from April to now is not valid because testing has greatly expanded. If testing was what it is now back in April, cases would have been much much higher.
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Post the US daily deaths chart.

My point is, cases are harder to care about because as you point out, no one really knows the number of cases...which is good, because it means many people got infected, survived, and were never tested.
 
schuelma

schuelma

Well-Known Member
Chef Mickey said:
Post the US daily deaths chart.

My point is, cases are harder to care about because as you point out, no one really knows the number of cases...which is good, because it means many people got infected, survived, and were never tested.
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The week of 6/29-7/5 was the lowest weekly death number since I believe April- 3,609.

The week of 7/6-7/12 was 5,151

The week of 7/13-7/19 was 5,537.
 
October82

October82

Well-Known Member
SamusAranX said:
Well I didn’t want to but Disney World refuses to refund my pass partially even though their website says otherwise.

Therefore so as not to waste $500.00 I will be going to AK in August. Hoping Florida has shown some improvement by then but I’m not betting on it. I don’t think they will reclose if they haven’t already with the huge caseload day to day

Ps: if anyone knows inner workings of Disney PM me, because I have run out of recourse on refunding my pass
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People often have luck with the social media teams about these sorts of issues. Companies don't like bad PR on twitter.
 
Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
October82 said:
Asymptomatic as in "positive test result without symptoms like coughing or fever". @Tony the Tigger is right - there have been a series of scientific papers that have found lung damage in these patients.
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And? You still have to ask yourself, how common is that, what does it mean, is it permanent (clearly unknown bc how new this is), does it “matter” and do things like bronchitis and other respiratory infections also cause similar lung damage, meaning this is nothing new.

Just throwing it out there is the definition of alarmist. It’s a headline:

LUNG DAMAGE FROM COVID19 WITH NO SYMPTOMS. CLICK ME!!!!
 
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October82

October82

Well-Known Member
Chef Mickey said:
And?
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I was clarifying for the person I responded to what @Tony the Tigger was referring to.

You still have to ask yourself, how common is that, what does it mean, is it permanent (clearly unknown bc how new this is), does it “matter” and do things like bronchitis and other respiratory infections also cause similar lung damage, meaning this is nothing new.

Just throwing it out there is the definition of alarmist. It’s a headline:

LUNG DAMAGE FROM COVID19 WITH NO STMPTOMS. CLICK ME!!!!
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I can't speak for anyone else, but I was referring to published scientific papers looking at all of these questions, not media reports. If anything, I've seen very little media coverage about these research results. The reason for this is that we don't know enough and journalists generally try to be responsible about not repeating information that is uncertain in their reporting. I'll just add that we shouldn't discount things that are alarming just because they are alarming, but we also shouldn't give them more weight than the evidence warrants.
 
Chef Mickey

Chef Mickey

Well-Known Member
October82 said:
I was clarifying for the person I responded to what @Tony the Tigger was referring to.



I can't speak for anyone else, but I was referring to published scientific papers looking at all of these questions, not media reports. If anything, I've seen very little media coverage about these research results. The reason for this is that we don't know enough and journalists generally try to be responsible about not repeating information that is uncertain in their reporting. I'll just add that we shouldn't discount things that are alarming just because they are alarming, but we also shouldn't give them more weight than the evidence warrants.
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Agree...I’d like to ask more questions when seeing this kind of report and read it thoroughly. I would wager you might be able to see temporary lung ”damage” from a bad pneumonia, bronchitis, or even regular respiratory infection. The question is, is it harmless, permanent, or even meaningful? Or is the damage like a scar on your skin...who cares.

I only brought up the media because they love this stories for headlines. They did it with specific young ages that supposedly died from Covid, only to read in the article they had many underlying health issues.
 
disneygeek90

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
legwand77 said:
and that is more likely due to demand than any virus concerns
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I was speaking to a bartender at Springs on Friday. Previously WDW has told the locations what percentage of the resorts are filled every day so they have an estimate for potential traffic. They haven't been given any figures during the reopen, assuming it's so bad they don't even want to tell them.
 
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legwand77

Well-Known Member
disneygeek90 said:
I was speaking to a bartender at Springs on Friday. Previously WDW has told the locations what percentage of the resorts are filled every day so they have an estimate for potential traffic. They haven't been given any figures during the reopen, assuming it's so bad they don't even want to tell them.
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True, really no need to because they are not anywhere near any capacity concerns. Once the local APs are allowed that is going to bump traffic parks, for resorts it will be a while.
 

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