Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

EricsBiscuit

Well-Known Member
I think the growth of new cases is not as concerning as most are making it out to be. We should be seeing an exponential increase in new cases each day and a commensurate increase in deaths, but we’re not. Deaths are decreasing. New cases are certainly increasing, but they’re not nearly as much growth in new cases as I’d expect.
 

Calmdownnow

Well-Known Member
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It is comparable, the point is Disney guidelines and infrastructure coming together to mitigate spread. I agree the people in Shanghai are more compliant than us (cough yokels).
I don't think so. The core element of the Shanghai opening was the contract tracing/clean bill of health app that meant you couldn't get a park entry unless you could show "green" on the no contact with COVID screening. WDW (and the U.S.) doesn't have anything like that and is not likely to have such a level of contract tracing in 2020.
 

Doberge

Active Member
If UO was having problems I would hope that contact tracing patterns would show up by now. If contact tracing did show a problem then I'd hope UO would choose to close or the state would force closed (like bars). While acknowledging I could be misplacing faith (especially in Florida officials), fact that we have not seen UO close gives me enough confidence that UO is not a significant spreader. And if *that* is true then Disney will likely push forward with well laid plans.
 

Mem11

Active Member
Shanghai isn't a valid comparison. They've done an infinitely better job at controlling the virus than us thanks to robust contact tracing.

Maybe they have, but we'll never know as the official numbers from China are a cynical deception coming from a corrupt communist dictatorship, that nobody in there right mind believes.

No, again they do not have anywhere near the community spread that Florida has. So it is not a valid comparison.

No again, the numbers coming out of China are a steaming pile of BS, so we'll never know the truth.
 

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
I don't think so. The core element of the Shanghai opening was the contract tracing/clean bill of health app that meant you couldn't get a park entry unless you could show "green" on the no contact with COVID screening. WDW (and the U.S.) doesn't have anything like that and is not likely to have such a level of contract tracing in 2020.

*contact tracing. Such a common misspelling on this board. Anyways, that app would not fly at all in the US. No way would I want a mandatory app that tracks my movement, has access to my medical records, and can call the police to my location.

And again, not trying to be too conspiracy theory but thats just what the Chinese government has told us. I do think the opening there has gone well and gives weight to Disney opening successfully here in Florida. At least with the data given to us.
 

techgeek

Well-Known Member
Hard to say because of how varied the opinions are. Right now the biggest issues are cast member concerns and being able to fulfill expectations for guests. That's very close to not being viable.

The situation is looking to me very similar to mid-March, where we are on a trajectory towards a tipping point in public opinion. We're not there yet, but it's just going to take a couple of days of bad numbers on top of the persistent messaging from health officials and we're going to get there. If Florida starts posting 10k/day numbers going into the holiday, that could be it.

This forum has debated the finer points to death and back again, and I personally see valid points of both sides. I think there is a path towards Disney being safely open in some fashion. Team #openitup has made a very vocal and valid argument, but it seems to me that they are rapidly losing ground in the court of public opinion and official guidance to team #shutitbackdown. If someone can show me a path in the current 'numbers' reality to have it both ways, that would be awesome... but as I see it now things are not going the right direction and it's hard to see that line changing for the better in the near future. My gut feeling is that if Disney does open, the opening will not be able to be sustained.

So you have to ask yourself which is worse... pulling it before everyone shows up, or... rolling the dice and dealing with the fallout if it goes south?
 

Aries1975

Well-Known Member
I've had the chicken pox three times---once mildly by myself when I was 5, again when I was 7 when my brother got it, and when I was a freshman in college (18 years old)--bad case and left with pox scarring. So, your assertion is possible.

My story is very similar. Everyone looks at me like I am crazy saying, "That's not possible." But trust me it is. When the school nurse sent me home with my third round of chicken pox, my mother took me directly to the doctor who verified it. Fortunately, I must have developed some defenses, because the last time was only 3 days, much shorter than typical.

I understand this is a completely different type of virus, but I am hopeful as we have learned so much about viruses and immunity. My husband and brother were both able to get vaccines for chicken pox - neither actually had it as kids. Then, when my dad had shingles, there were anti-viral drugs to shorten its duration.
 

Calmdownnow

Well-Known Member
If UO was having problems I would hope that contact tracing patterns would show up by now.
But how is this going to show up in contract tracing outside of Florida? If you are diagnosed in Texas as being positive, how are public health officials in that state going to contact-trace everyone you came into contact with at UO when they could have been unknown visitors from multiple states? Are they even bothering to notify UO when their primary concern is their local community spread? Does anyone know how robust Florida's contract tracing system is in the Orlando area? There is no data to suggest that UO is/or isn't subject to the spread of infection both within Florida and within neighboring states. It is the absence of such data that makes theme park opening such a gamble.
 

MansionButler84

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
The situation is looking to me very similar to mid-March, where we are on a trajectory towards a tipping point in public opinion. We're not there yet, but it's just going to take a couple of days of bad numbers on top of the persistent messaging from health officials and we're going to get there. If Florida starts posting 10k/day numbers going into the holiday, that could be it.

This forum has debated the finer points to death and back again, and I personally see valid points of both sides. I think there is a path towards Disney being safely open in some fashion. Team #openitup has made a very vocal and valid argument, but it seems to me that they are rapidly losing ground in the court of public opinion and official guidance to team #shutitbackdown. If someone can show me a path in the current 'numbers' reality to have it both ways, that would be awesome... but as I see it now things are not going the right direction and it's hard to see that line changing for the better in the near future. My gut feeling is that if Disney does open, the opening will not be able to be sustained.

So you have to ask yourself which is worse... pulling it before everyone shows up, or... rolling the dice and dealing with the fallout if it goes south?
Ya think? I see people getting more complacent. More masks off noses. More parties. More out-of-state plates. And somehow, celebrities stopped dying of COVID.
 

RC@77429

New Member
I love each and all points each have made. I just hope DW make the decision ASAP. Our 75th Trip is just around the corner, August 8th. This Trip has been pushed 2x. If does not happen this August, we will just wait until 2021. Base on my last Chat with a Disney Agent (on June26th), he made it seem that DW is back to the Drawing Board on the Opening Date. 🧐
 

techgeek

Well-Known Member
Ya think? I see people getting more complacent. More masks off noses. More parties. More out-of-state plates. And somehow, celebrities stopped dying of COVID.

On the ground in Central Florida, mask use is way up just within the past week... even outside of the 'mandated' counties. Skimming social media, more people seem against Disney opening locally than are for it. I know several people that were supposed to go back to the office this week or next that have been pushed back and are still WFH. Granted this is all pretty anecdotal... but again it feels eerily similar to me to the pull back we had in early March.

I mean who knows, people have short attention spans. With the numbers being 'down' in the last few days the urgency has fallen off a little, but it won't take much to stoke it back up again.
 

Doberge

Active Member
But how is this going to show up in contract tracing outside of Florida? If you are diagnosed in Texas as being positive, how are public health officials in that state going to contact-trace everyone you came into contact with at UO when they could have been unknown visitors from multiple states? Are they even bothering to notify UO when their primary concern is their local community spread? Does anyone know how robust Florida's contract tracing system is in the Orlando area? There is no data to suggest that UO is/or isn't subject to the spread of infection both within Florida and within neighboring states. It is the absence of such data that makes theme park opening such a gamble.

I'm with you about out of state people and doubting efforts of local tracers in Arizona or wherever contacting Florida or UO, but
there are enough Floridians going to UO that contact tracing as simple as listing places traveled in previous two weeks would eventually catch UO. If it's not then there's no point to contact tracing.

Florida has enough data to know that bars have been a hot spot and they've at least reacted to that.
 

milordsloth

Well-Known Member
I love each and all points each have made. I just hope DW make the decision ASAP. Our 75th Trip is just around the corner, August 8th. This Trip has been pushed 2x. If does not happen this August, we will just wait until 2021. Base on my last Chat with a Disney Agent (on June26th), he made it seem that DW is back to the Drawing Board on the Opening Date. 🧐

I'm right there with you. I've been slowly planning my best friends 30th bday trip to WDW for nearly a year at this point. Rescheduled 3 times and we are now arriving on 7/11. Disney has proven they are able to go above and beyond, let them open.
 

Minthorne

Well-Known Member
Disney world rolled everything out. They likely started ordering food and supplies already. Workers are preparing and many of them are eager to make a living again. Guests have been shuffled around since March and went through the process of reserving parks. They've gone to every extreme to make the park function with these rules. Obviously public health is critical but there simply is nothing to indicate a need for a business with strict policies to close. You could close but they committed to this and who is to say that cases won't ebb and flow like this for the foreseeable future? It can't be stop and go. This is the time to do it. UO was successful.

Your avatar has a smile just about where I live ;)
 

Calmdownnow

Well-Known Member
I'm with you about out of state people and doubting efforts of local tracers in Arizona or wherever contacting Florida or UO, but
there are enough Floridians going to UO that contact tracing as simple as listing places traveled in previous two weeks would eventually catch UO. If it's not then there's no point to contact tracing.

Florida has enough data to know that bars have been a hot spot and they've at least reacted to that.
I don't know enough about the State-wide effort on contact tracing. Some parts of Florida have localized tracing that may have identified particular bars or venues as spreading infection. I don't know if Orlando has (or wants) a contact tracing capacity that matches best practice elsewhere in the state. That is one of the problems with every area doing their own thing: if your county is pretty good at this, you assume everywhere else is too, and conversely if your area is not up to scratch you assume everywhere else is doing poorly. The consequence is that generally, people don't have a lot of faith in the data being put out.
 

Sparksfly

Member
I think the growth of new cases is not as concerning as most are making it out to be. We should be seeing an exponential increase in new cases each day and a commensurate increase in deaths, but we’re not. Deaths are decreasing. New cases are certainly increasing, but they’re not nearly as much growth in new cases as I’d expect.

Two issues with this...

1) We aren't going to see deaths related to this spike for at least another couple weeks. First someone has to feel sick enough to get tested which can take up to 2 weeks. Then they have to wait for results which can take approximately 5 days. Then they have to get sick enough to be hospitalized which can take another 1-3 weeks...give or take. Then they have to become Ill enough to result in a death which can take another week or two. Granted some cases result in death much faster than this... some slower...so I'm speaking on what's been common as far as time period from point of testing to an unfortunate resulting death. Keep in mind..there are many of those dying after "recovery" of stroke and heart attack due to the thickening effects this has on the blood.

2) It's not just the deaths that are serious..it's the long term, and possibly permanent illness/damage this can create on the human body. There are many reporting kidney damage, neurological damage, heart damage, lung damage among many other serious issues after "recovery". The majority of these people were healthy up until that point and now suffer from potentially life long illness or injury. To me that's just as serious as death. It's a loss of quality of life... as well as a huge financial change for them as well.
 
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