Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[havoc315]

I know the difference, but one isn’t riskier than the other. There are still many non essential businesses open in Houston.

Yes there are.

But many are closed. And many customers are staying at home.

There seems to be this odd attitude from people of, “if it’s not 100%, why bother? If cloth masks don’t filter out 100% of the virus, why wear a mask at all? If 50% of people ignore stay-home recommendations, why have stay-home recommendations?”

Each preventative step reduces Viral transmission. The R0 number. If it’s above 1.0, things are bad. If it’s below, 1.0, things are good.

So imagine Houston, hypothetically: May— people were mostly not wearing masks. Most businesses were re-opening with some social distancing. The R0 jumped to 1.5 or 2.0.

As cases increased, people started getting more cautious on their own.R0 drops to 1.4.

Houston strongly urges people to voluntarily stay home. Enough people follow the advice, R0 drops to 1.2.

Governor mandates masks and other restrictions... R0 drops to 1.0.

The numbers are for demonstration only. But 1.0 is about where Houston is now.. after being much higher a month ago.

The more they reduce it, the faster cases will start to drop.

 

[havoc315]

Me too. You look at things from a non essential/ essential point of view. I can’t differentiate the two in terms of risk. We will never agree. Until someone can prove to me without a shadow of a doubt that theme parks are a major factor in increasing Covid I’m not going to change my mind.

A person in my town went to Florida for the theme parks. They came back, with Covid, and spread it to 29 other people.

If not for theme parks being open, they wouldn’t have travelled to Florida and brought back Covid.

That proves it to me, beyond any doubt.

It’s not that essential businesses are lower risk. It’s that they are essential. We need groceries. We understand that there will be some viral spread attributable to grocery stores. It’s a necessary trade off.

We’d have fewer Covid deaths if all supermarkets were shut down — but you’d have starvation and malnutrition.
On the other hand, you’re not going to starve if you can’t ride Splash Mountain.

 

[legwand77]

Thank you!!! Yes!!!! See the evidence that Disney World should close, that you just posted!!!

Houston went to a "Stay Home" advisory in early July -- As a result, the hospitalization rate started to flatten in mid/late July!!!
Notice the massive increase before the effect of the Stay-Home recommendations!

So yes -- if a Stay Home order is issued, or a Stay Home recommendation is made that actually gets followed (non-essential businesses actually follow the recommendation and shut down) -- then hospitalizations flatten!!!

Thank you!!

So you agree the hospitalization is not rising?

 

[legwand77]

Where are you getting your hospitalization in texas numbers , that graph you keep posting, covid project?

Texas health officials report drop in statewide COVID-19 hospitalization rates

There is positive news to report from the state on hospitalizations. They dropped by about 100 from Tuesday to Wednesday.

www.fox4news.com

 

[legwand77]

A person in my town went to Florida for the theme parks. They came back, with Covid, and spread it to 29 other people.

If not for theme parks being open, they wouldn’t have travelled to Florida and brought back Covid.

That proves it to me, beyond any doubt.

It’s not that essential businesses are lower risk. It’s that they are essential. We need groceries. We understand that there will be some viral spread attributable to grocery stores. It’s a necessary trade off.

We’d have fewer Covid deaths if all supermarkets were shut down — but you’d have starvation and malnutrition.
On the other hand, you’re not going to starve if you can’t ride Splash Mountain.

an anecdote proves it to you beyond any doubt?

 

[Miss Bella]

A person in my town went to Florida for the theme parks. They came back, with Covid, and spread it to 29 other people.

If not for theme parks being open, they wouldn’t have travelled to Florida and brought back Covid.

That proves it to me, beyond any doubt.

It’s not that essential businesses are lower risk. It’s that they are essential. We need groceries. We understand that there will be some viral spread attributable to grocery stores. It’s a necessary trade off.

We’d have fewer Covid deaths if all supermarkets were shut down — but you’d have starvation and malnutrition.
On the other hand, you’re not going to starve if you can’t ride Splash Mountain.

What about all the people that are being laid off in the tourism industry. Are they going to starve? Are they going to lose their homes? How many of them will lose their health insurance?

How do you know that your friend got it at the theme park and how do you know he spread it to 29 people? He could have gotten it anywhere. He could have gotten it before he left home. That proves nothing.

 

[Miss Bella]

Yes there are.

But many are closed. And many customers are staying at home.

There seems to be this odd attitude from people of, “if it’s not 100%, why bother? If cloth masks don’t filter out 100% of the virus, why wear a mask at all? If 50% of people ignore stay-home recommendations, why have stay-home recommendations?”

Each preventative step reduces Viral transmission. The R0 number. If it’s above 1.0, things are bad. If it’s below, 1.0, things are good.

So imagine Houston, hypothetically: May— people were mostly not wearing masks. Most businesses were re-opening with some social distancing. The R0 jumped to 1.5 or 2.0.

As cases increased, people started getting more cautious on their own.R0 drops to 1.4.

Houston strongly urges people to voluntarily stay home. Enough people follow the advice, R0 drops to 1.2.

Governor mandates masks and other restrictions... R0 drops to 1.0.

The numbers are for demonstration only. But 1.0 is about where Houston is now.. after being much higher a month ago.

The more they reduce it, the faster cases will start to drop.

How do you know people are staying at home? I know the bars closed. Masks help. Disney requires masks and social distancing. I'm not sure what the issue is.

 

[legwand77]

I’ve been watching the Kinsa map for a couple months. I’m iffy on how much it’s actually capturing, but it does appear to have some predictive value.

Well if that is the case (using the Kinsa data) Florida and Texas are looking good with a RT of < 1 for the Orlando and Orange county area. Texas looking really good at below normal.

 

[chrisvee]

Well if that is the case (using the Kinsa data) Florida and Texas are looking good with a RT of < 1 for the Orlando and Orange county area. Texas looking really good at below normal.

https://www.kinsahealth.co/the-worst-is-likely-yet-to-come-for-texas/

“Looking at Kinsa’s recent Rt data, we see an incredibly concerning picture for Texas. While the rate of illness spread has exceeded 1 at times over the past month in many states, Texas’ rate of illness spread has significantly exceeded 1 for the entirety of the past 30 days. This level of sustained, rampant disease transmission suggests that there is likely a lot more illness in the community than what has been reflected in the case numbers to date. In other words, there is no relief in store for Texas over the next few weeks, and we fear that the situation there may get much worse in the near-term.”

 

[havoc315]

Well if that is the case (using the Kinsa data) Florida and Texas are looking good with a RT of < 1 for the Orlando and Orange county area. Texas looking really good at below normal.

Like I said, limited predictive value. “Looking good” is a great exaggeration. Looking more like, “after a truly horrible stretch, starting to show a tiny improvement.”

It’s all consistent —- numbers don’t randomly go up and down. All related to behavior.

Numbers get terrible — even without any official government mandates, people start to get more careful on their own. Numbers start to improve.
The more careful we are — wear masks, avoid inessential travel and business, etc— the more numbers improve.
As we become less cautious — gather without masks, travel for theme parks, etc — the more numbers rise.

 

[havoc315]

How do you know people are staying at home? I know the bars closed. Masks help. Disney requires masks and social distancing. I'm not sure what the issue is.

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

 

[havoc315]

So you agree the hospitalization is not rising?

???? it’s rising extremely quickly through Florida and Texas. Already posted the graphs.

How’s this — we both agree to the actudk facts:
Over the last several weeks, the hospitalization rate is dangerously skyrocketing in Florida and Texas.
The city of Houston, which already skyrocketed to a dangerously high level, has gone a few days with even more increases.

So can we both agree on this factual statement?

 

[disney fan 13]

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

Adding onto this, people are traveling in from all over the southeast to visit, while the parks themselves could theoretically be safe, the act of coming into Florida and using our hotels, gas stations, restaurants etc will spread the virus.

 

[havoc315]

Adding onto this, people are traveling in from all over the southeast to visit, while the parks themselves could theoretically be safe, the act of coming into Florida and using our hotels, gas stations, restaurants etc will spread the virus.

+1
Exactly my point.

 

[Miss Bella]

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

 

[October82]

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

Sorry, but I have to ask what your point is here. @havoc315 is absolutely correct that more people travel when they have a reason to travel. That shouldn't be a complicated or controversial point.

 

[October82]

What about all the people that are being laid off in the tourism industry. Are they going to starve? Are they going to lose their homes? How many of them will lose their health insurance?

This is what the Paycheck Protection Program and other forms of fiscal stimulus were intended to solve. It has historically been the role of the federal government to provide stimulus during recessions. While the cause of this recession is unusual (and the economy will remain in recession without an end to the pandemic), the principles are the same.

If we can achieve low transmission rates with a reopened economy through other preventative measures (mask wearing, adequate testing and contact tracing), then we can talk about letting the tourism industry reopen. But it is an if-then statement, where the if has to be satisfied before the then. Without that, we just end up back where we started with a shut down economy and the cycle continues.

 

[Old Mouseketeer]

This is what the Paycheck Protection Program and other forms of fiscal stimulus were intended to solve. It has historically been the role of the federal government to provide stimulus during recessions. While the cause of this recession is unusual (and the economy will remain in recession without an end to the pandemic), the principles are the same.

If we can achieve low transmission rates with a reopened economy through other preventative measures (mask wearing, adequate testing and contact tracing), then we can talk about letting the tourism industry reopen. But it is an if-then statement, where the if has to be satisfied before the then. Without that, we just end up back where we started with a shut down economy and the cycle continues.

I completely agree.

There's nothing political about this. It's proven, established public health practice. The virus doesn't care about your politics. It only cares that you are a warm body in which it can replicate. I miss Disneyland being open as much as anyone. I was a Disney geek of the highest order before most of you were born. If it will save lives (and by any known metric, it will), I can wait. I know DL CMs. I don't want them to get sick and possibly have lifelong health impairments or die.

Other countries are beating this. We can too if we will just do the work necessary. Unfortunately, that's a big "IF".

 

[havoc315]

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

Here we go again. “Why should we reduce unessential travel if some people will travel anyway!!”

Let’s be clear — more unessential activities = more virus.
Thus, ENCOURAGING unessential travel is bad.

 

[bdearl41]

I completely agree.

There's nothing political about this. It's proven, established public health practice. The virus doesn't care about your politics. It only cares that you are a warm body in which it can replicate. I miss Disneyland being open as much as anyone. I was a Disney geek of the highest order before most of you were born. If it will save lives (and by any known metric, it will), I can wait. I know DL CMs. I don't want them to get sick and possibly have lifelong health impairments or die.

Other countries are beating this. We can too if we will just do the work necessary. Unfortunately, that's a big "IF".

The only country that you can closely relate the US to is Brazil. We are far too large and far too diverse to compare to anywhere else. In combination with that an interesting statistic not well known is that the US beat every European country except one (Germany) on a death per capita basis. My point is you can’t compare us to New Zealand or the U.K. maybe the entirety of Europe. Maybe Brazil, but geographically and based on population saying a Denmark did better is like saying Ice Cream is better than a Ford F-150. They are just too different to compare. To add in I think masks are the key to beating this thing so I’m not trying to push a certain agenda.