Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
People shop at home don’t they? I just hit up Costco, Kohl’s and target this morning. All were very busy.
I shop at home. Amazon way to much. I’m not a mall or Walmart or kohl’s kind of guy. But that’s not what I meant. The poster was naming places in Disney that could be crowded while trying to keep distance. I mentioned shopping which he left out. That’s all.
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
I shop at home. Amazon way to much. I’m not a mall or Walmart or kohl’s kind of guy. But that’s not what I meant. The poster was naming places in Disney that could be crowded while trying to keep distance. I mentioned shopping which he left out. That’s all.
You may not be a shopper, but every store is crowded and people shop. If they can’t shop at Disney Springs they’ll just shop somewhere else. I’m not sure why shopping at Disney is so lethal in everyone’s mind...again back to the selective outrage.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
You may not be a shopper, but every store is crowded and people shop. If they can’t shop at Disney Springs they’ll just shop somewhere else. I’m not sure why shopping at Disney is so lethal in everyone’s mind...again back to the selective outrage.
Again, I don’t know where your comments are coming from. I was responding to another poster on what he forgot in his list. I never said anything about lethal or am I showing selective outrage. You don’t have to respond to every post here, especially ones that weren’t even directed your way. You can but don’t have to.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Curious about your opinion of the predictive value of the Kinsa data. They are grim about TX, concerned about FL, and more positive about AZ in terms of Rt and time to peak.

I’ve been watching the Kinsa map for a couple months. I’m iffy on how much it’s actually capturing, but it does appear to have some predictive value.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I know the difference, but one isn’t riskier than the other. There are still many non essential businesses open in Houston.

Yes there are.

But many are closed. And many customers are staying at home.

There seems to be this odd attitude from people of, “if it’s not 100%, why bother? If cloth masks don’t filter out 100% of the virus, why wear a mask at all? If 50% of people ignore stay-home recommendations, why have stay-home recommendations?”

Each preventative step reduces Viral transmission. The R0 number. If it’s above 1.0, things are bad. If it’s below, 1.0, things are good.

So imagine Houston, hypothetically: May— people were mostly not wearing masks. Most businesses were re-opening with some social distancing. The R0 jumped to 1.5 or 2.0.

As cases increased, people started getting more cautious on their own.R0 drops to 1.4.

Houston strongly urges people to voluntarily stay home. Enough people follow the advice, R0 drops to 1.2.

Governor mandates masks and other restrictions... R0 drops to 1.0.

The numbers are for demonstration only. But 1.0 is about where Houston is now.. after being much higher a month ago.

The more they reduce it, the faster cases will start to drop.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Me too. You look at things from a non essential/ essential point of view. I can’t differentiate the two in terms of risk. We will never agree. Until someone can prove to me without a shadow of a doubt that theme parks are a major factor in increasing Covid I’m not going to change my mind.

A person in my town went to Florida for the theme parks. They came back, with Covid, and spread it to 29 other people.

If not for theme parks being open, they wouldn’t have travelled to Florida and brought back Covid.

That proves it to me, beyond any doubt.

It’s not that essential businesses are lower risk. It’s that they are essential. We need groceries. We understand that there will be some viral spread attributable to grocery stores. It’s a necessary trade off.

We’d have fewer Covid deaths if all supermarkets were shut down — but you’d have starvation and malnutrition.
On the other hand, you’re not going to starve if you can’t ride Splash Mountain.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Thank you!!! Yes!!!! See the evidence that Disney World should close, that you just posted!!!

Houston went to a "Stay Home" advisory in early July -- As a result, the hospitalization rate started to flatten in mid/late July!!!
Notice the massive increase before the effect of the Stay-Home recommendations!

So yes -- if a Stay Home order is issued, or a Stay Home recommendation is made that actually gets followed (non-essential businesses actually follow the recommendation and shut down) -- then hospitalizations flatten!!!

Thank you!!
So you agree the hospitalization is not rising?
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
A person in my town went to Florida for the theme parks. They came back, with Covid, and spread it to 29 other people.

If not for theme parks being open, they wouldn’t have travelled to Florida and brought back Covid.

That proves it to me, beyond any doubt.

It’s not that essential businesses are lower risk. It’s that they are essential. We need groceries. We understand that there will be some viral spread attributable to grocery stores. It’s a necessary trade off.

We’d have fewer Covid deaths if all supermarkets were shut down — but you’d have starvation and malnutrition.
On the other hand, you’re not going to starve if you can’t ride Splash Mountain.
an anecdote proves it to you beyond any doubt?
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
A person in my town went to Florida for the theme parks. They came back, with Covid, and spread it to 29 other people.

If not for theme parks being open, they wouldn’t have travelled to Florida and brought back Covid.

That proves it to me, beyond any doubt.

It’s not that essential businesses are lower risk. It’s that they are essential. We need groceries. We understand that there will be some viral spread attributable to grocery stores. It’s a necessary trade off.

We’d have fewer Covid deaths if all supermarkets were shut down — but you’d have starvation and malnutrition.
On the other hand, you’re not going to starve if you can’t ride Splash Mountain.
What about all the people that are being laid off in the tourism industry. Are they going to starve? Are they going to lose their homes? How many of them will lose their health insurance?

How do you know that your friend got it at the theme park and how do you know he spread it to 29 people? He could have gotten it anywhere. He could have gotten it before he left home. That proves nothing.
 

Miss Bella

Well-Known Member
Yes there are.

But many are closed. And many customers are staying at home.

There seems to be this odd attitude from people of, “if it’s not 100%, why bother? If cloth masks don’t filter out 100% of the virus, why wear a mask at all? If 50% of people ignore stay-home recommendations, why have stay-home recommendations?”

Each preventative step reduces Viral transmission. The R0 number. If it’s above 1.0, things are bad. If it’s below, 1.0, things are good.

So imagine Houston, hypothetically: May— people were mostly not wearing masks. Most businesses were re-opening with some social distancing. The R0 jumped to 1.5 or 2.0.

As cases increased, people started getting more cautious on their own.R0 drops to 1.4.

Houston strongly urges people to voluntarily stay home. Enough people follow the advice, R0 drops to 1.2.

Governor mandates masks and other restrictions... R0 drops to 1.0.

The numbers are for demonstration only. But 1.0 is about where Houston is now.. after being much higher a month ago.

The more they reduce it, the faster cases will start to drop.
How do you know people are staying at home? I know the bars closed. Masks help. Disney requires masks and social distancing. I'm not sure what the issue is.
 

chrisvee

Well-Known Member
Well if that is the case (using the Kinsa data) Florida and Texas are looking good with a RT of < 1 for the Orlando and Orange county area. Texas looking really good at below normal.
https://www.kinsahealth.co/the-worst-is-likely-yet-to-come-for-texas/

“Looking at Kinsa’s recent Rt data, we see an incredibly concerning picture for Texas. While the rate of illness spread has exceeded 1 at times over the past month in many states, Texas’ rate of illness spread has significantly exceeded 1 for the entirety of the past 30 days. This level of sustained, rampant disease transmission suggests that there is likely a lot more illness in the community than what has been reflected in the case numbers to date. In other words, there is no relief in store for Texas over the next few weeks, and we fear that the situation there may get much worse in the near-term.”
 

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