Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[techgeek]

A coronavirus surge is hitting Tampa Bay hospitals

Extra nurses and added morgue equipment have been brought in. “I don’t know how long we can sustain these high numbers,” one doctor said.

www.tampabay.com

 

[disdonald]

So you agree the hospitalization is not rising?

Seems alot of talk about hospitalizations increasing and it would be nice to see some additional detail from state health departments.
Total Hospitalizations by day
% Non-Covid
% Covid primary reason
% Covid - not the primary reason and mild or asymtompatic
Total of above 3 = 100%

The same with ICU since now ICUs are operating at full capacity since all surgeries are a go.
I think this would go a long way to clarifying some things and end some of the debate since we get a clearer picture of the actual extent and seriousness.

Also, with Florida, 65% of the cases seem to be concentrated in 6 counties.
If you target those counties and really focus on the causes such as demographics, non-mask wearing, age, health, etc. and put together a plan, that could really help those counties and the entire state of Florida, but it does not seem to be the case.

I have looked at the latest report from Florida and they do have some breakdowns that could enable better targeted mitigation plans instead of just blanket plans across entire state.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

You could, hope your going to quarantine though. Need 5 total weeks to have a week vacation if your visiting a lot of states now.

 

[legwand77]

???? it’s rising extremely quickly through Florida and Texas. Already posted the graphs.

How’s this — we both agree to the actudk facts:
Over the last several weeks, the hospitalization rate is dangerously skyrocketing in Florida and Texas.
The city of Houston, which already skyrocketed to a dangerously high level, has gone a few days with even more increases.

So can we both agree on this factual statement?

well since it is not factual , no.

So I provide data showing it is not increasing fast and in some cases declining, multiple graphs All sourced down to a hospital and up to the state level. You provided one graph or series of graphs, I asked for source , thinking it might be Covid project, no answer and you still make claims to the contrary that. It is skyrocketing even with all that evidence that shows it is currently not?

 

[legwand77]

Seems alot of talk about hospitalizations increasing and it would be nice to see some additional detail from state health departments.
Total Hospitalizations by day
% Non-Covid
% Covid primary reason
% Covid - not the primary reason and mild or asymtompatic
Total of above 3 = 100%

The same with ICU since now ICUs are operating at full capacity since all surgeries are a go.
I think this would go a long way to clarifying some things and end some of the debate since we get a clearer picture of the actual extent and seriousness.

Also, with Florida, 65% of the cases seem to be concentrated in 6 counties.
If you target those counties and really focus on the causes such as demographics, non-mask wearing, age, health, etc. and put together a plan, that could really help those counties and the entire state of Florida, but it does not seem to be the case.

I have looked at the latest report from Florida and they do have some breakdowns that could enable better targeted mitigation plans instead of just blanket plans across entire state.

They are doing that, targeting those counties, that is why south Florida is under much tighter restrictions etc. You can put together that info for a lot of the states including Florida if you want to.

Here is one for Arizona another hotspot.

 

[legwand77]

A coronavirus surge is hitting Tampa Bay hospitals

Extra nurses and added morgue equipment have been brought in. “I don’t know how long we can sustain these high numbers,” one doctor said.

www.tampabay.com

As the article states hospitals are busy, some very busy, and getting prepared but keep in mind that article could just have easily have been written a couple of years ago during flu outbreak exactly the same way. Capacity in Hillsborough county has also improved the past few days as well, as it also has statewide.

 

[legwand77]

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

lots of unproven assumptions in your scenario

In fact most transmission occur at home and in close environments, bars , indoor spaces. It is not the traveling. Sure some cases spread some with traveling but by far most transfer occurs in the home. Traveling at this point in the pandemic is not really a factor. People transfer it by visiting a group/family/bar in the neighborhood.

 

[legwand77]

You could, hope your going to quarantine though. Need 5 total weeks to have a week vacation if your visiting a lot of states now.

not if you are an essential worker

 

[chrisvee]

It’s only one example, but yesterday there was a family from Houston in line near me at HS. It doesn’t seem to be keeping people from Houston from traveling to Florida any more than the stay at home order kept NY, and NJ from traveling to Florida while they were considered hot spots.

people traveling between Houston and WDW sounds pretty undesirable to me frankly

 

[havoc315]

I apologize — didn’t seem you ask for the source. Yes, it’s the Covid Tracking project.

All the evidence supports everything I’ve said. Hospitalizations, nationwide, have almost returned to our April peak.

You choose to ignore facts that are inconvenient to your theory of “nothing to see here” by cherry-picking 1 week in 1 city, etc.


The data is there for all to see. Red flashing lights are blinking in multiple regions. You’re whole, “nothing to see here” becomes harder and harder to countenance.

 

[legwand77]

I apologize — didn’t seem you ask for the source. Yes, it’s the Covid Tracking project.

All the evidence supports everything I’ve said. Hospitalizations, nationwide, have almost returned to our April peak.

You choose to ignore facts that are inconvenient to your theory of “nothing to see here” by cherry-picking 1 week in 1 city, etc.


The data is there for all to see. Red flashing lights are blinking in multiple regions. You’re whole, “nothing to see here” becomes harder and harder to countenance.

You did not say that things are at the April peak, that wasn't the point you made.

You stated the hospitalizations in Texas are increasing fast, they are not now and haven't been in the past week 7 day trend , both covid and general. Not ignoring anything. You choose to ignore all the data form the actual hospitals and state dashboards and regional dashboards I have shown and keep hanging on your one graph. That is your choice. Like you said data is obvious.

I also have never said nothing to see here, nor just picked one city, hence the the state and regional reports. Highlighted one city because it is the hotspot and would show the worst case of hospitlizations increasing fast if that was true.

As I stated before lets move, on as I will.

 

[havoc315]

You did not say that things are at the April peak, that wasn't the point you made.

You stated the hospitalizations in Texas are increasing fast, they are not now and haven't been in the past week 7 day trend , both covid and general. Not ignoring anything. You choose to ignore all the data form the actual hospitals and state dashboards and regional dashboards I have shown and keep hanging on your one graph. That is your choice. Like you said data is obvious.

I also have never said nothing to see here, nor just picked one city, hence the the state and regional reports. Highlighted one city because it is the hotspot and would show the worst case of hospitlizations increasing fast if that was true.

As I stated before lets move, on as I will.

??????

You are cherry-picking 1 week here, 1 city there.

Here are the facts:

Florida -- 31% increase in hospitalizations in just the last 6 days!!!! Yes -- that's SKY ROCKETING
Texas -- 51% increase in hospitalizations thus far, in July -- so 51% in just 16 days. That's SKY ROCKETING. Yes, it has been slightly flatter for the last 4-5 days. Whether that's just noise, or a real flattening, we don't know. We do know, it's not a level you want to be flat at -- Over 10,000 Covid hospitalizations.

So yes, 31% in the last week is SKY ROCKETING. 51% in the last 16 days -- that's SKY ROCKETING.

 

[legwand77]

And about that death data, dying with Covid. Just shows the amount of errors that occur with that much data.

best quote

"But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don’t know the conclusion of that one.”

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

 

[FutureCEO]

I doubt anybody with half a brain is going to blame Disney for something that was their choice to do.

you have more faith in Americans than I do

 

[legwand77]

you have more faith in Americans than I do

@LUVMCO did qualify that claim

 

[danlb_2000]

And about that death data, dying with Covid. Just shows the amount of errors that occur with that much data.

best quote

"But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don’t know the conclusion of that one.”

FOX 35 INVESTIGATES: Questions raised after fatal motorcycle crash listed as COVID-19 death

A person who died in a motorcycle accident was added to Florida’s COVID-19 death count, according to a state health official.

www.fox35orlando.com

Can you point to a source that shows that there has been wide spread, systematic, mis-reporting of COVID-related deaths? There are always going to be data errors, the question is, are there enough errors to change our conclusions on the severity of the virus?

 

[Willow_Sapphire]

Hasn’t it been discovered that Covid-19 can cause severe issues with the cardiovascular system and blood clots? Did the autopsy note any indications of a heart attack or stroke? Those are both medical events that can cause people to crash a vehicle, and both can be attributed to Covid-19, particularly in younger patients. If that were the case, then I can see it being justly classified as a death due to the virus.

 

[legwand77]

Can you point to a source that shows that there has been wide spread, systematic, mis-reporting of COVID-related deaths? There are always going to be data errors, the question is, are there enough errors to change our conclusions on the severity of the virus?

No, because I am not claiming that.

 

[havoc315]

Can you point to a source that shows that there has been wide spread, systematic, mis-reporting of COVID-related deaths? There are always going to be data errors, the question is, are there enough errors to change our conclusions on the severity of the virus?

We know, that there has been large scale under-reporting of deaths.
Certainly, data collection is never perfect. You get false-positives AND false-negatives.
There will be some deaths reported as Covid, that really aren't truly Covid. It's likely a very very small number.
There will be some deaths that aren't reported as Covid, that truly were Covid -- This is likely a very very large number.

But some people like to seize on isolated incidents as proof of some major conspiracy.

 

[Nmoody1]

It's true that people don't need to ride Space Mountain. They don't need to eat in restaurants, stay in hotels, or to travel.

Except for the people whose jobs rely on theme parks, restaurants, hotels, and the travel industry. That's roughly 25MM of the 155MM jobs in the U.S. (about 16%). And, of course, the people employed in those industries spend money on everything else in the economy, like food, services, electronics, cars, and homes.

I think the vast majority of people's "Plan A" would've been to stay at home until we developed a vaccine. The U.S. doesn't have social programs to accomplish that. So a substantial part of the U.S. economy needed a Plan B.

Plan B The U.S. implemented additional unemployment insurance. That ends in 16 days and hasn't been extended. But let's assume that every person who needed it, got it, it all worked perfectly, and it was enough to cover everyone's expenses.

Employers got up to 2.5 months of payroll expenses through the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP). Let's say that all of that worked perfectly too, that companies didn't have other expenses besides payroll, and that everyone who needed the PPP, got it. Assuming that started in April, that would've lasted until mid-June. Emergency (EIDL) loans are available for up to $150K. Let's say that gets 2.5 months too, through the end of August, and that EIDL worked perfectly.

Plan C Thus, at the end of July (workers) or August (companies), lots of people need a Plan C. Let's assume that Plan C is that everyone perfectly followed what financial advisors said, and had 3 to 6 months of emergency money sitting around. That gets us to November to January.

Plan D Assuming everything went exactly to plan at every step along the way, workers and companies will run out of their own emergency savings and all existing government assistance programs starting in a little over 100 days from now.

The economy will not be fixed 100 days from now.

It's worth pointing out that 46 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia have laws that mandate balanced budgets - they can't run deficits, even if they wanted to implement their own emergency social programs. (They could change those laws, of course. As far as I can tell, no state is considering doing so.)

If you're trying to plan ahead, then, the two most likely options for Plan D are "hope the federal government helps" or "figure it out for yourself."

Again, the right thing to do would be for everyone to re-isolate until a vaccine is available. To do that without destroying the lives and livelihoods of 1/6th of the U.S. economy for the next decade, the federal government would need to indicate now that it's going to do whatever it takes to support the economy.

The federal government isn't doing that.

That's why businesses like theme parks are re-opening.

As usual, I could be wrong.

I agree. And the same is starting to happen in other markets with governments insisting on a return to normal - of course they almost all insist thier health care system cant deal with a 2nd wave in the winter months.

Sadly for the the people who work in theme parks, they are being subjected to this virus - which also isn't fair.

Unfortunately there is no right or wrong response - because this is all so unprecedented