Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[havoc315]

This is Covid admissions from Baylor St. Luke in Houston, one of the large hospitals in Houston hotpsot in Texas. Not exactly increasing "fast" in the past week.

View attachment 484148

Are you joking? It’s 1 hospital which is having a somewhat flat week.... but still showing tremendous growth over the last month.

Houston added a bunch of restrictions over the last couple weeks... so it would make sense to see Houston starting to flatten.

so yes... the lesson is, restrictions bring down the numbers.

 

[legwand77]

Thank goodness they are still keeping New Yorkers out of Florida...

Perhaps those asking, “what should Florida do?” should instead ask, “what did New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey do?”

We wore masks. Here in CT, we’ve been wearing masks since April 20. We started reopening a month later. We’ve kept the bars closed.

View attachment 484158
View attachment 484159
Hmmm. Wonder what happened. Glad we didn’t “just wait and see.”

Where is anyone saying "just wait and see" is the only plan?

 

[hopemax]

There is a professor on Twitter, who is "very concerned" about data, in the same way some people here are concerned about data. He was posting a lot about the missing Florida negatives, for example. This week he's been doing his own plotting of FL's deaths. Color coded to demonstrate the day of actual death vs the date recorded. This is his plot from today. I interpret this as most of the deaths are recorded within a 7-10 day period following actual death. There are outliers where dates that happened weeks earlier, but they are outliers. There is no reason to think that the majority of today's 100+ deaths occurred prior to the past week. Today's deaths for example are the brown ones on the top, the biggest chunks of brown appear over the previous 7 days. Also, we can see that there were 30-40 deaths per day at the beginning of June, and now FL is over 50 regularly with a high point of almost 90.

 

[legwand77]

Are you joking? It’s 1 hospital which is having a somewhat flat week.... but still showing tremendous growth over the last month.

Houston added a bunch of restrictions over the last couple weeks... so it would make sense to see Houston starting to flatten.

so yes... the lesson is, restrictions bring down the numbers.

So now you are saying it makes sense Houston is flattening as opposed to increasing fast. I agree with that.

 

[legwand77]

There is a professor on Twitter, who is "very concerned" about data, in the same way some people here are concerned about data. He was posting a lot about the missing Florida negatives, for example. This week he's been doing his own plotting of FL's deaths. Color coded to demonstrate the day of actual death vs the date recorded. This is his plot from today. I interpret this as most of the deaths are recorded within a 7-10 day period following actual death. There are outliers where dates that happened weeks earlier, but they are outliers. There is no reason to think that the majority of today's 100+ deaths occurred prior to the past week. Today's deaths for example are the brown ones on the top, the biggest chunks of brown appear over the previous 7 days. Also, we can see that there were 30-40 deaths per day at the beginning of June, and now FL is over 50 regularly with a high point of almost 90.

View attachment 484161

Ha now people are going to start posting we are the same person, already happed before on here

 

[hopemax]

Ha now people are going to start posting we are the same person, already happed before on here

You are the one who told me, several times the last week of June that "deaths are decreasing" and got on me about lag and just "two more weeks." So no, I don't think that people are going to confuse us.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Where is anyone saying "just wait and see" is the only plan?

It could also flatten out and decrease quickly. We just have to wait and see. It was just a week or so ago when the drama queens on here were saying we were going to ration care in Arizona and health care providers would be choosing who lives and who dies....well that never happened.

 

[legwand77]

It is obvious @LUVMCO was saying about the data, not as a plan.

 

[legwand77]

You are the one who told me, several times the last week of June that "deaths are decreasing" and got on me about lag and just "two more weeks." So no, I don't think that people are going to confuse us.

Ha true, where did I say deaths were decreasing, I guess when they were?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

It's an issue we've had for the 20 years I've been in healthcare. One thing we're used to is being short-staffed, but we manage to get through it. One thing I've never seen is the amount of money nurses can make right now. NYC was paying 10k a week, Texas and California are paying 5-6k a week for crisis nurses. Florida needs to step it up. Nurses are no different than anyone else they are going to follow the money.

I’m all for nurses getting bigger pay checks. But since it’s fine in Florida, I guess if it ever gets bad maybe they will see a increase.

 

[legwand77]

I’m all for nurses getting bigger pay checks. But since it’s fine in Florida, I guess if it ever gets bad maybe they will see a increase.

The"spin" that some posts are saying that 'everything is fine' when no one is saying that is getting old.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

The"spin" that some posts are saying that 'everything is fine' when no one is saying that is getting old.

I’m glad you finally agree. Welcome to the dark side.

 

[havoc315]

So now you are saying it makes sense Houston is flattening as opposed to increasing fast. I agree with that.

Psst... I said TEXAS is increasing fast.
You do realize that Houston is just a portion of Texas?

It's too early to say whether Houston is flattening or declining, but there is indeed some reason to believe it is starting to flatten.

A couple weeks ago, Houston started strongly urging people to stay home. IOW...

Ready Harris

www.readyharris.org

They went to level 1, "stay home" recommendation.

if Disney World was in Houston, they would have been telling Disney World employees to stay home, not go to work.

Yes -- stay home orders flatten the curve.

So yes, you're absolutely right, if Florida closes unnecessary businesses like Disney World, then their hospitalization might start to bend in the right direction, just like Houston!

 

[havoc315]

There is a professor on Twitter, who is "very concerned" about data, in the same way some people here are concerned about data. He was posting a lot about the missing Florida negatives, for example. This week he's been doing his own plotting of FL's deaths. Color coded to demonstrate the day of actual death vs the date recorded. This is his plot from today. I interpret this as most of the deaths are recorded within a 7-10 day period following actual death. There are outliers where dates that happened weeks earlier, but they are outliers. There is no reason to think that the majority of today's 100+ deaths occurred prior to the past week. Today's deaths for example are the brown ones on the top, the biggest chunks of brown appear over the previous 7 days. Also, we can see that there were 30-40 deaths per day at the beginning of June, and now FL is over 50 regularly with a high point of almost 90.

View attachment 484161

What that is telling you, is there is a large and inconsistent amount of lag in reporting of deaths.
Thus, you'd say most of the reporting from before June 30th is probably *almost totally complete.*
Reporting 7/1-7/7: Are probably mostly complete
From about 7/8-7/12: Probably more than half complete, but still missing up to half of deaths
7/13-present: Mostly incomplete

When it's all done, we will see a very steady rise from late June.... Potentially increasing for a long time.

Here are the IMHE updated projections on daily deaths in Florida --- Feel free to compare it to the above:

So based on current cases, hospitalizations and trends -- IHME expects daily deaths to continue to rise significantly, peaking sometime in August.
And without proper mitigation, actually not peaking... flattening slightly, and then continuing to increase through the end of the year.

 

[legwand77]

I’m glad you finally agree. Welcome to the dark side.

finally? I have never said everything is fine.

 

[Miss Bella]

I’m all for nurses getting bigger pay checks. But since it’s fine in Florida, I guess if it ever gets bad maybe they will see a increase.

Flu and other pandemics are never fine, but they are something we will always have. Isn’t it important for a healthcare system to be able to handle these surges or should we just shut everything down and put millions out of work every-time there is a new virus.

As far as travel jobs go they are almost always plentiful in Florida especially in the Winter, but they are not as high paying as California or the Northeast. Florida’s motto is they pay you with Sunshine. Well sunshine may be a hard sell in July.

 

[legwand77]

Psst... I said TEXAS is increasing fast.
You do realize that Houston is just a portion of Texas?

It's too early to say whether Houston is flattening or declining, but there is indeed some reason to believe it is starting to flatten.

A couple weeks ago, Houston started strongly urging people to stay home. IOW...

Ready Harris

www.readyharris.org

They went to level 1, "stay home" recommendation.

if Disney World was in Houston, they would have been telling Disney World employees to stay home, not go to work.

Yes -- stay home orders flatten the curve.

So yes, you're absolutely right, if Florida closes unnecessary businesses like Disney World, then their hospitalization might start to bend in the right direction, just like Houston!

ok , here is southeast (not just houston) texas hospitals dashboard (the hotspot in texas) from today, not just one hospital, looks pretty flat. Where is it "increasing fast"? If I add in the whole of the numbers looks even better.

The mayor advised stay at home, like you said was not an order, she doesn't have that power. After she made that order hospital admins in Houston said that they have plenty of capacity and that was over two weeks ago and they still have capacity.

 

[Miss Bella]

It is obvious @LUVMCO was saying about the data, not as a plan.

Exactly. As per usual for this thread it was taken out of context. I’m pretty sure plans are in place and have been for a long time.

 

[legwand77]

Also to add some more data points from TMC the largest medical complex in the world located in Houston. Note the seven day growth rate is -0.2% not quite rising fast.

 

[Jrb1979]

finally? I have never said everything is fine.

You're just saying it's not bad enough be to close the parks again. I would tell you what so think but every time I bring up what is being done in whee I live so get mocked. So I will just continue to shake my head.