Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

[havoc315]

Well if that is the case (using the Kinsa data) Florida and Texas are looking good with a RT of < 1 for the Orlando and Orange county area. Texas looking really good at below normal.

Like I said, limited predictive value. “Looking good” is a great exaggeration. Looking more like, “after a truly horrible stretch, starting to show a tiny improvement.”

It’s all consistent —- numbers don’t randomly go up and down. All related to behavior.

Numbers get terrible — even without any official government mandates, people start to get more careful on their own. Numbers start to improve.
The more careful we are — wear masks, avoid inessential travel and business, etc— the more numbers improve.
As we become less cautious — gather without masks, travel for theme parks, etc — the more numbers rise.

 

[havoc315]

How do you know people are staying at home? I know the bars closed. Masks help. Disney requires masks and social distancing. I'm not sure what the issue is.

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

 

[havoc315]

So you agree the hospitalization is not rising?

???? it’s rising extremely quickly through Florida and Texas. Already posted the graphs.

How’s this — we both agree to the actudk facts:
Over the last several weeks, the hospitalization rate is dangerously skyrocketing in Florida and Texas.
The city of Houston, which already skyrocketed to a dangerously high level, has gone a few days with even more increases.

So can we both agree on this factual statement?

 

[disney fan 13]

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

Adding onto this, people are traveling in from all over the southeast to visit, while the parks themselves could theoretically be safe, the act of coming into Florida and using our hotels, gas stations, restaurants etc will spread the virus.

 

[havoc315]

Adding onto this, people are traveling in from all over the southeast to visit, while the parks themselves could theoretically be safe, the act of coming into Florida and using our hotels, gas stations, restaurants etc will spread the virus.

+1
Exactly my point.

 

[Miss Bella]

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

 

[October82]

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

Sorry, but I have to ask what your point is here. @havoc315 is absolutely correct that more people travel when they have a reason to travel. That shouldn't be a complicated or controversial point.

 

[October82]

What about all the people that are being laid off in the tourism industry. Are they going to starve? Are they going to lose their homes? How many of them will lose their health insurance?

This is what the Paycheck Protection Program and other forms of fiscal stimulus were intended to solve. It has historically been the role of the federal government to provide stimulus during recessions. While the cause of this recession is unusual (and the economy will remain in recession without an end to the pandemic), the principles are the same.

If we can achieve low transmission rates with a reopened economy through other preventative measures (mask wearing, adequate testing and contact tracing), then we can talk about letting the tourism industry reopen. But it is an if-then statement, where the if has to be satisfied before the then. Without that, we just end up back where we started with a shut down economy and the cycle continues.

 

[Old Mouseketeer]

This is what the Paycheck Protection Program and other forms of fiscal stimulus were intended to solve. It has historically been the role of the federal government to provide stimulus during recessions. While the cause of this recession is unusual (and the economy will remain in recession without an end to the pandemic), the principles are the same.

If we can achieve low transmission rates with a reopened economy through other preventative measures (mask wearing, adequate testing and contact tracing), then we can talk about letting the tourism industry reopen. But it is an if-then statement, where the if has to be satisfied before the then. Without that, we just end up back where we started with a shut down economy and the cycle continues.

I completely agree.

There's nothing political about this. It's proven, established public health practice. The virus doesn't care about your politics. It only cares that you are a warm body in which it can replicate. I miss Disneyland being open as much as anyone. I was a Disney geek of the highest order before most of you were born. If it will save lives (and by any known metric, it will), I can wait. I know DL CMs. I don't want them to get sick and possibly have lifelong health impairments or die.

Other countries are beating this. We can too if we will just do the work necessary. Unfortunately, that's a big "IF".

 

[havoc315]

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

Here we go again. “Why should we reduce unessential travel if some people will travel anyway!!”

Let’s be clear — more unessential activities = more virus.
Thus, ENCOURAGING unessential travel is bad.

 

[bdearl41]

I completely agree.

There's nothing political about this. It's proven, established public health practice. The virus doesn't care about your politics. It only cares that you are a warm body in which it can replicate. I miss Disneyland being open as much as anyone. I was a Disney geek of the highest order before most of you were born. If it will save lives (and by any known metric, it will), I can wait. I know DL CMs. I don't want them to get sick and possibly have lifelong health impairments or die.

Other countries are beating this. We can too if we will just do the work necessary. Unfortunately, that's a big "IF".

The only country that you can closely relate the US to is Brazil. We are far too large and far too diverse to compare to anywhere else. In combination with that an interesting statistic not well known is that the US beat every European country except one (Germany) on a death per capita basis. My point is you can’t compare us to New Zealand or the U.K. maybe the entirety of Europe. Maybe Brazil, but geographically and based on population saying a Denmark did better is like saying Ice Cream is better than a Ford F-150. They are just too different to compare. To add in I think masks are the key to beating this thing so I’m not trying to push a certain agenda.

 

[techgeek]

A coronavirus surge is hitting Tampa Bay hospitals

Extra nurses and added morgue equipment have been brought in. “I don’t know how long we can sustain these high numbers,” one doctor said.

www.tampabay.com

 

[disdonald]

So you agree the hospitalization is not rising?

Seems alot of talk about hospitalizations increasing and it would be nice to see some additional detail from state health departments.
Total Hospitalizations by day
% Non-Covid
% Covid primary reason
% Covid - not the primary reason and mild or asymtompatic
Total of above 3 = 100%

The same with ICU since now ICUs are operating at full capacity since all surgeries are a go.
I think this would go a long way to clarifying some things and end some of the debate since we get a clearer picture of the actual extent and seriousness.

Also, with Florida, 65% of the cases seem to be concentrated in 6 counties.
If you target those counties and really focus on the causes such as demographics, non-mask wearing, age, health, etc. and put together a plan, that could really help those counties and the entire state of Florida, but it does not seem to be the case.

I have looked at the latest report from Florida and they do have some breakdowns that could enable better targeted mitigation plans instead of just blanket plans across entire state.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I could fly to any city in the U.S and use an Uber, stay in a condo, visit extended family without social distancing, go to a theme park, visit a museum, carpool without a mask....so your point again.

You could, hope your going to quarantine though. Need 5 total weeks to have a week vacation if your visiting a lot of states now.

 

[legwand77]

???? it’s rising extremely quickly through Florida and Texas. Already posted the graphs.

How’s this — we both agree to the actudk facts:
Over the last several weeks, the hospitalization rate is dangerously skyrocketing in Florida and Texas.
The city of Houston, which already skyrocketed to a dangerously high level, has gone a few days with even more increases.

So can we both agree on this factual statement?

well since it is not factual , no.

So I provide data showing it is not increasing fast and in some cases declining, multiple graphs All sourced down to a hospital and up to the state level. You provided one graph or series of graphs, I asked for source , thinking it might be Covid project, no answer and you still make claims to the contrary that. It is skyrocketing even with all that evidence that shows it is currently not?

 

[legwand77]

Seems alot of talk about hospitalizations increasing and it would be nice to see some additional detail from state health departments.
Total Hospitalizations by day
% Non-Covid
% Covid primary reason
% Covid - not the primary reason and mild or asymtompatic
Total of above 3 = 100%

The same with ICU since now ICUs are operating at full capacity since all surgeries are a go.
I think this would go a long way to clarifying some things and end some of the debate since we get a clearer picture of the actual extent and seriousness.

Also, with Florida, 65% of the cases seem to be concentrated in 6 counties.
If you target those counties and really focus on the causes such as demographics, non-mask wearing, age, health, etc. and put together a plan, that could really help those counties and the entire state of Florida, but it does not seem to be the case.

I have looked at the latest report from Florida and they do have some breakdowns that could enable better targeted mitigation plans instead of just blanket plans across entire state.

They are doing that, targeting those counties, that is why south Florida is under much tighter restrictions etc. You can put together that info for a lot of the states including Florida if you want to.

Here is one for Arizona another hotspot.

 

[legwand77]

A coronavirus surge is hitting Tampa Bay hospitals

Extra nurses and added morgue equipment have been brought in. “I don’t know how long we can sustain these high numbers,” one doctor said.

www.tampabay.com

As the article states hospitals are busy, some very busy, and getting prepared but keep in mind that article could just have easily have been written a couple of years ago during flu outbreak exactly the same way. Capacity in Hillsborough county has also improved the past few days as well, as it also has statewide.

 

[legwand77]

Really— so Disney requires people wear masks in the Ubers on the way to the park?
And Disney prohibits guests from renting condos off property and gathering extended family without social distancing? And Disney enforces a prohibition against co-workers carpooling to work without masks? And Disney insures that nobody is flying to Orlando with Covid and Etc etc.

The issue isn’t necessarily spread occurring while on line at Splash Mountain.
The issue is all the unessential activity spreading Covid, that surrounds the theme parks being open.

If there is any theme we are seeing over the last 3 months of data — as activity increases, disease transmission increases. There are no “safe” activities where people gather. There are simply some activities that are more essential and safer than others.

lots of unproven assumptions in your scenario

In fact most transmission occur at home and in close environments, bars , indoor spaces. It is not the traveling. Sure some cases spread some with traveling but by far most transfer occurs in the home. Traveling at this point in the pandemic is not really a factor. People transfer it by visiting a group/family/bar in the neighborhood.

 

[legwand77]

You could, hope your going to quarantine though. Need 5 total weeks to have a week vacation if your visiting a lot of states now.

not if you are an essential worker

 

[chrisvee]

It’s only one example, but yesterday there was a family from Houston in line near me at HS. It doesn’t seem to be keeping people from Houston from traveling to Florida any more than the stay at home order kept NY, and NJ from traveling to Florida while they were considered hot spots.

people traveling between Houston and WDW sounds pretty undesirable to me frankly