Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Advertisement
The epidemiologist I referenced works for the hospital and is part of the county planning team. :rolleyes:
Good for him, good to have an epidemiologist on the team
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Hi again. I'd like to chime in because, as I've mentioned before, my day job is reporting on health misinformation.

This thread is repeating a number of the same tropes about the COVID-19 case numbers that I've seen on far-right or conspiracy theory websites.

A few points:
-There is no evidence that there is any systematic overreporting, inflation, or manipulation of the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, or deaths.

-There is no evidence that asymptomatic spread has exposed anywhere close to enough people to achieve herd immunity. Serological studies are estimates at best and many of the most well-publicized ones had obviously biased sample populations (one in California, for instance, advertised the study on Facebook, which would likely drawn in more people that had reason to believe they had been exposed, rather than a random sample).

-Beyond the likely death toll from a "natural herd immunity" strategy -- not only from COVID-19, but from overloading hospitals -- we don't know enough about the long-term effects of COVID-19 or how long immunity lasts to make that a viable strategy.

-There are many possible reasons the death toll is lower at this moment. Have hospitals gotten better at treating severe COVID-19 cases? Do people recognize the symptoms faster and seek medical help earlier? Are the people getting infected getting a smaller viral load than those in New York in March and April? Death is also a lagging indicator, so of course cases are going go up first before deaths.



This is misleading.

People try to draw this distinction between "death by COVID" and "death with COVID," but that's not really how determining a cause of death works. If you look at a death certificate, there's two sections: Part I explains the exact sequence of conditions that led to the death, Part II includes conditions that contributed to the death but was not involved in that Part I sequence. Many underlying conditions -- which most Americans have, by the way -- would be listed on a death certificate in some fashion and that was the case long before the pandemic. That does not mean the person died of that underlying condition and their COVID infection was either imagined or unrelated to their death.

While different states have different standards for what's a "probable" COVID case in the absence of a positive test, implying that medical professionals are making that determination "to play it safe" or to boost their Medicare payments is, frankly, an insult to people who are risking their lives for yours right now.

Medicare payments NEVER entered into my mind, I never even considered money in this, I have no idea how that stuff works. "to play it safe" I meant so that they do this so as not to under report COVID deaths for data purposes.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
How about UNDERreporting of the bolded? It happened in NY, I'm sure its happening elsewhere. Its been months since that FL woman came out speaking about it and was quickly removed from her job.

The "FL woman" who was removed from her job was complaining about the way the information was presented on the dashboard. Nothing was under reported. The data was still published and the raw data was available. She even made her own dashboard with the same source data.

Her biggest issue is that the dashboard was presenting only Florida resident cases and deaths on the daily charts (although the numbers including non-residents were still there). She also claimed that the test data on the dashboard was number of tests and not number of people tested like it says.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
?????? No, the utilized capacity is NOT the same now.
Unfortunately, Florida didn't start publishing current hospitalization numbers till this week. We know, hospitalizations have increased by 20% in just the past week!!!
No... nobody would have said in mid June that hospitals were about to be overwhelmed.

On June 19th, when the article was written, the 7-day daily average cases for Florida was 2,682. Now, the average cases is 11,147.
So there has been a 400% increase in cases since the article was written.
We know there has been a 20% increase in hospitalization in just the last week. (we don't have numbers for mid June)
Over the month, there has been about a 100% increase in testing -- But a 100% increase in testing with a 400% increase in cases -- Is indicative of massive increase in actual cases.

So you're taking an article from mid June when maybe there were 2,000-3,000 people actually hospitalized with Covid, quoting people saying, "we aren't worried, we have plenty of capacity" -- And you're just assuming the same holds true now a month later, with a massive increase in cases, with 9,000 Covid patients hospitalized, and that number constantly increasing.

I can imagine 1 million people in the hospital with Covid, patients stretched out on lawn chairs in the parking lot, and you'd be, "this old article says they have plenty of capacity!"


Your hyperbolic accusatons of what I would say (note - which I would not) are not helpful here.
 

bartholomr4

Well-Known Member
And deaths! Deaths are a great way to clear those hospital beds!

Fact is, admissions are far outpacing discharges. Hospitalization for Covid has increased by 20% in just the last week.

It may happen tomorrow, but hasn't happened yet, Florida isn't averaging 500 new admissions a day. The 7 day average is 375, vs 302 last Thursday and 258 two Thursday's ago.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
And deaths! Deaths are a great way to clear those hospital beds!

Fact is, admissions are far outpacing discharges. Hospitalization for Covid has increased by 20% in just the last week.
True, note they have only been reporting that Covid hospitaliztion number for around a week.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
It may happen tomorrow, but hasn't happened yet, Florida isn't averaging 500 new admissions a day. The 7 day average is 375, vs 302 last Thursday and 258 two Thursday's ago.

Pst... that’s a TRAILING average. Been over 400 for the last few days. And continues to increase at a rate of 20%+ a week.

Actually — you just documented a 140% increase in admissions in just 2 weeks!!!
 

techgeek

Well-Known Member
Regardless if hospital admissions are up / down / or sideways on today’s numbers, ICU beds are surged or not, or the ER wait time billboard on I4 posts a longer standby wait then Slinky... is it a good idea to sit around, keep doing the same things we’re doing and hope that hospitals *don’t* get overrun? The underlying concerns related to the virus have not substantially changed since February.

Is there something magical about Florida that prevents what happened in New York, Italy, or Wuhan from happening here?

Common sense and math agrees that trend line down is good, trend line up is warning, trend line taking off exponentially is already too late. Show me a Florida trend from the last month getting consistently ‘better’, and I’ll dial back the ‘rhetoric’ about the sky falling... but right now, the sky is falling.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member

Your hyperbolic accusatons of what I would say (note - which I would not) are not helpful here.

No clue what you’re trying to demonstrate.
The fact that there were some concerns about hospital capacity in Mid June, means there shouldn’t be concerns in mid July???
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Regardless if hospital admissions are up / down / or sideways on today’s numbers, ICU beds are surged or not, or the ER wait time billboard on I4 posts a longer standby wait then Slinky... is it a good idea to sit around, keep doing the same things we’re doing and hope that hospitals *don’t* get overrun? The underlying concerns related to the virus have not substantially changed since February.

Is there something magical about Florida that prevents what happened in New York, Italy, or Wuhan from happening here?

Common sense and math agrees that trend line down is good, trend line up is warning, trend line taking off exponentially is already too late. Show me a Florida trend from the last month getting consistently ‘better’, and I’ll dial back the ‘rhetoric’ about the sky falling... but right now, the sky is falling.

Great post.
In just the last week or 2... someone on this board suggested no reason to change course, deaths weren’t increasing much.
At the time, the average deaths in Florida was still about 40.

I pointed out that I expected deaths to very quickly become 100+ per day, potentially even 200-300+ per day. (

Nothing magical about Florida. With that many cases, there were going to be lots of deaths.

If we don’t act BEFORE deaths climb, then we are acting too late. If we don’t act BEFORE ICUs reach capacity, then we are acting too late. If we don’t act BEFORE cases surge, then we are acting too late.
 
Top Bottom