Do you think that Disney world will reclose its gates due to the rising number of COVID cases in Florida and around the country?

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
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Not really errors per se but the way the data is presented. While the positive results were accurate, dumping them all on one day to create a "all time world record" number of cases in a day does not present an accurate picture and leads to panic/scaremongering news headlines.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Uh, no.
There is absolutely no proof that people who didn’t get tests were then told they tested positive.

It’s part of a larger conspiracy narrative to discredit the very real rise in COVID-19 cases. You should be absolutely called out and shamed for spreading that kind of harmful garbage.

There is a rise in "cases" for sure. It isn't really known how much the rise in infections actually is. It is definitely higher but how much higher isn't really known because the asymptomatic cases weren't being tested at all back in April and May.

There is also some false positive percentage to consider. When somebody tests positive, there is no additional test to confirm the result.

My opinion is that they should go back to only testing people with symptoms. After that, test asymptomatic people where it really matters like nursing home staff (as they are doing).

Then, they should use the remaining test capacity to do true random sample testing in every county with statistically significant sample sizes each week. Those studies could be used to accurately track the infection trends.

Testing asymptomatic people that just decide to get tested doesn't really provide any value. They could have been infected two weeks before and there is a delay for the result. By the time they know to isolate there could be no reason to isolate anymore.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
My opinion is that they should go back to only testing people with symptoms. After that, test asymptomatic people where it really matters like nursing home staff (as they are doing).

No, we need to test every person that will be admitted to a nursing home/rehab so that we don’t introduce Covid into those places; we also need to test anyone about to have a surgical procedure to protect healthcare workers and preserve PPE. Throughout the country these are the vast majority of asymptomatic (w/o clear exposure) people being tested.
 

Disstevefan1

Well-Known Member
Not really errors per se but the way the data is presented. While the positive results were accurate, dumping them all on one day to create a "all time world record" number of cases in a day does not present an accurate picture and leads to panic/scaremongering news headlines.

This is for sure an error, and you put it perfectly, "dumping them all on one day to create a "all time world record" number of cases in a day does not present an accurate picture and leads to panic/scaremongering news headlines."

All of us want to use the data presented to us to daily see how we are doing over time! Errors like this makes that impossible.
 

LUVMCO

Well-Known Member
No, we need to test every person that will be admitted to a nursing home/rehab so that we don’t introduce Covid into those places; we also need to test anyone about to have a surgical procedure to protect healthcare workers and preserve PPE. Throughout the country these are the vast majority of asymptomatic (w/o clear exposure) people being tested.
We already do both of those.
 

beertiki

Well-Known Member
We can discuss all day if the numbers are real, fake, or have a margin of error. I can only speak for my area of Florida, the Keys. What is real, is restaurants making posts on Facebook saying that an employee has tested positive and they will be closing for cleaning and testing. There have been a lot of them, so many that it's not surprising anymore.

I used to think that Disney would close when the state closed all restaurants. My guess was this week or next. It's looking like that is not going to happen any time soon. Now my guess is, Disney is going to stay open until there is an outbreak among CMs.

Many times Florida and Florida Man have been portrayed as a joke or stupid. People shake their heads and laugh at us. If things continue the way they are, there will not be any laughing at Florida, it will be pity.
 

robhedin

Well-Known Member
Where are you getting this number. All media sources are saying otherwise.
Where is your source.........
When there's a question, go to the source: https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsCounty

As of 10:45 today-
13,000 Beds available
1,004 ICU beds available
Miami-Dade and Orange Counties have 14-20% ICU Capacity available.
There are some hospitals at ICU Capacity, but on a quick glance, it looks like they are primarily smaller hospitals
Currently there are 8,763 hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of COVID, most in South Florida.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
When there's a question, go to the source: https://bi.ahca.myflorida.com/t/ABICC/views/Public/HospitalBedsCounty

As of 10:45 today-
13,000 Beds available
1,004 ICU beds available
Miami-Dade and Orange Counties have 14-20% ICU Capacity available.
There are some hospitals at ICU Capacity, but on a quick glance, it looks like they are primarily smaller hospitals
Currently there are 8,763 hospitalizations with a primary diagnosis of COVID, most in South Florida.
And that is the same place the media is getting their information, as they link it in their articles. Also note those numbers do not include the surge capacity at the hospitals, so surge capacity is even higher. The usually have less capacity Tue-Thur and then reduce over the weekend, that has been the pulse for the past month or so.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
We can discuss all day if the numbers are real, fake, or have a margin of error. I can only speak for my area of Florida, the Keys. What is real, is restaurants making posts on Facebook saying that an employee has tested positive and they will be closing for cleaning and testing. There have been a lot of them, so many that it's not surprising anymore.

I used to think that Disney would close when the state closed all restaurants. My guess was this week or next. It's looking like that is not going to happen any time soon. Now my guess is, Disney is going to stay open until there is an outbreak among CMs.

Many times Florida and Florida Man have been portrayed as a joke or stupid. People shake their heads and laugh at us. If things continue the way they are, there will not be any laughing at Florida, it will be pity.
Yes but remember a vast majority positives cases has a low chance of hospitalization and even much lower chance of death.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
And that is the same place the media is getting their information, as they link it in their articles. Also note those numbers do not include the surge capacity at the hospitals, so surge capacity is even higher.

Surge capacity is a bit of a fiction.
yes, you can set up hundreds of cots in a gymnasium.

But ICUs aren’t designed to operate even at 90% for any sustained period. You quickly run out of doctors and nurses at ratios that provide optimal coverage.

Basically... once you hit more than approximately 80% capacity.. (variable with other factors), patients are no longer able to get optimal care.
 

bartholomr4

Well-Known Member
And that is the same place the media is getting their information, as they link it in their articles. Also note those numbers do not include the surge capacity at the hospitals, so surge capacity is even higher.

Some facts from the raw data reported today. I know there are 156 Deaths reported, but in the actual data file there are only 126 listed

Of the 126 souls who died, 1 was initially reported with Covid in April, 4 were reported in May, 43 were reported in June and 78 were reported with the virus in July. Of the 78 who were reported in July, 31 were reported with Covid on the same day as their death.

Ages of those who died:


20 to 29 years: 1 death
30 to 39 Years: 5
40 to 49 years: no deaths
50 to 59 years: 8
60 to 69 years: 20
70 to 79 years: 31
80 to 89 years: 54
90 to 99 years: 15
100+ years: 1
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Some facts from the raw data reported today. I know there are 156 Deaths reported, but in the actual data file there are only 126 listed

Of the 126 souls who died, 1 was initially reported with Covid in April, 4 were reported in May, 43 were reported in June and 78 were reported with the virus in July. Of the 78 who were reported in July, 31 were reported with Covid on the same day as their death.

Ages of those who died:


20 to 29 years: 1 death
30 to 39 Years: 5
40 to 49 years: no deaths
50 to 59 years: 8
60 to 69 years: 20
70 to 79 years: 31
80 to 89 years: 54
90 to 99 years: 15
100+ years: 1

Now, let's dig deeper... the point of rolling averages. Most deaths are not reported on the day of their death -- As you indicated, nearly half were delayed by at least several weeks.
Meaning, the majority of the deaths from the last week, haven't even been reported yet.

So we don't know how many actually died "yesterday." Could be a bit lower than actually being 156 -- could be much much higher than 156.
But by looking at the rolling average, we know we are going in a very bad direction.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
Surge capacity is a bit of a fiction.
yes, you can set up hundreds of cots in a gymnasium.

But ICUs aren’t designed to operate even at 90% for any sustained period. You quickly run out of doctors and nurses at ratios that provide optimal coverage.

Basically... once you hit more than approximately 80% capacity.. (variable with other factors), patients are no longer able to get optimal care.

Just one of the many articles reporting that is not the case. Article is from June but capacity are the same now as they were then some cases even better.

 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
There is a rise in "cases" for sure. It isn't really known how much the rise in infections actually is. It is definitely higher but how much higher isn't really known because the asymptomatic cases weren't being tested at all back in April and May.

There is also some false positive percentage to consider. When somebody tests positive, there is no additional test to confirm the result.

My opinion is that they should go back to only testing people with symptoms. After that, test asymptomatic people where it really matters like nursing home staff (as they are doing).

Then, they should use the remaining test capacity to do true random sample testing in every county with statistically significant sample sizes each week. Those studies could be used to accurately track the infection trends.

Testing asymptomatic people that just decide to get tested doesn't really provide any value. They could have been infected two weeks before and there is a delay for the result. By the time they know to isolate there could be no reason to isolate anymore.

So unless you favor a government mandate where the government can randomly pick people, show up at their homes, and force them to take a test -- Then the current testing model is HOW you randomly test asymptomatic people. By letting people voluntarily get tested.

I can tell you, the vast majority of people getting tested aren't exactly "asymptomatic" -- They are having symptoms that could be consistent with Covid (a cough, a fever), or they have concerns because they were in contact with a Covid-positive individual (potentially PRE-symptomatic), or they have a reason they need to be tested (upcoming travel, upcoming surgery).
Very few people are saying, "I feel totally fine, I don't know anybody with Covid, but I'm going to sit in my car in a 3 hour line to get a Covid test anyway." -- I'm sure there are some people doing that, but the majority are getting tested for a reason.

And huge voluntary testing is HOW you spot outbreaks early. Instead of waiting for hundreds of symptomatic cases to show up in a town, you catch the handful of pre-symptomatic people, before they spread it to hundreds.
 

rowrbazzle

Well-Known Member
Surge capacity is a bit of a fiction.
yes, you can set up hundreds of cots in a gymnasium.

But ICUs aren’t designed to operate even at 90% for any sustained period. You quickly run out of doctors and nurses at ratios that provide optimal coverage.

Basically... once you hit more than approximately 80% capacity.. (variable with other factors), patients are no longer able to get optimal care.

This is what some of the local epidemiologists were saying. The hospitals can expand capacity by quite a lot. The problem is that you can't staff appropriately at those levels.
 

legwand77

Well-Known Member
So unless you favor a government mandate where the government can randomly pick people, show up at their homes, and force them to take a test -- Then the current testing model is HOW you randomly test asymptomatic people. By letting people voluntarily get tested.

I can tell you, the vast majority of people getting tested aren't exactly "asymptomatic" -- They are having symptoms that could be consistent with Covid (a cough, a fever), or they have concerns because they were in contact with a Covid-positive individual (potentially PRE-symptomatic), or they have a reason they need to be tested (upcoming travel, upcoming surgery).
Very few people are saying, "I feel totally fine, I don't know anybody with Covid, but I'm going to sit in my car in a 3 hour line to get a Covid test anyway." -- I'm sure there are some people doing that, but the majority are getting tested for a reason.

And huge voluntary testing is HOW you spot outbreaks early. Instead of waiting for hundreds of symptomatic cases to show up in a town, you catch the handful of pre-symptomatic people, before they spread it to hundreds.
In your own breakdown over 2/3 would be for asymptomatic reasons. Only the first group might have a cough or fever. The rest are getting test for other reasons per your scenerio
 
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