Agreed. But even if Star Wars Land is greenlit today... 2019 is probably the earliest we'd see its grand opening. That's plenty of time for both Universal parks to soar past DHS. AK and Epcot might take a little longer to equal, but around 2021-2024, I could definitely see both Universal parks drawing 11.5-12 mililon a piece. 5 years is enough time for both to reach top 5 in Central Florida. Star Wars should have been opening alongside Episode VII... and if you take Spirit's info that certain TDO execs aren't sure about adding two genre-themed expansions so close together, it could be a little while.
And Avatar just doesn't have the hype when you consider New Fantasyland and both Potter areas... it'll give AK a much needed boost, but the park is still 5-7 attractions away from being a full-day affair. USF and IOA will both be full day by 2017. And the waterpark could change the narrative when you consider it'd likely add another day to a UNI vacation.
Attendance doesn't make something great. Wal-Mart and McDonalds aren't the absolute highest-quality in shopping and dining. And WDW isn't exactly the highest quality in theme parks these days. DisneySea is still untouchable for the most part.
It's hard to equal AK and Epcot's attendance after Pandora... but DHS is a piece of cake.
I agree with everything you are saying.
Universal has time to go past Disney's weaker parks but the reality is it will be very very tough and it would be for a limited time.
Remember, no matter what DHS or AK's weaknesses may be...they still bring in 9.95 million people every year for the last 3 years. That's basically 10 million people going to each park that is considered the weakest parks by many on this board.
People on this board have called these parks weak since I started posting here and they still bring in 10 million people.
What will change those numbers to the downside?
Nothing new has been built at those parks for at least 5 years and it's still 10 million visitors a year!
I think it's a hypothetical assumption to expect a huge increase at Universal that blows past DHS and AK. I just don't see it in my number crunching. I can put together some hypotheticals but I can also do that with Disney.
You are right, numbers don't make a part better. Everything is subjective.
Looking at numbers, Disney's mouse trap they have created at WDW plus their amazing marketing is hard to beat. You can't underestimate that. It's very hard to avoid the marketing hand of Disney and it's very hard to leave WDW once you are staying on campus.
Magic Kingdom increased by 1 million visitor with new fantasyland. Very impressive for a park that was already bringing in over 17 million people. That is really impressive! Should show Disney that new attractions can and do bring people.
So, how many of those people stay on campus at WDW?
How many of those 18 million will head over to Animal Kingdom once Avatar is created, the new night show and new hours?
All the advertising across WDW, the shuttle buses picking you up at your hotel and dropping you off at AK. There is no advertised shuttle bus to universal if you are staying on campus at Disney. That's the hard part, Disney's mouse trap. If customers haven't pre-planned to go to Universal...then they won't go.
That's why Disney has created the "created your own vacation thing before you leave the house". They have you.
I think it would be cool to watch Universal pass one of Disney's parks in attendance. Watching what Disney's response would be.
But like you said. Recently the better rides created are at Universal. No one can dispute that. That is a fact.
I think it's more realistic for national media to review Universals parks as better then Disney's. That might wake Disney up.
Disney reminds me of the best all star team ever assembled yet they are keeping their best players on the bench. Star Wars, Indiana Jones, Pixar (incredibles, Monster Inc, Ratatouille), Frozen, Tangled, Pirates of the Carribean,new rides based on Imagineers Imagination. This is all sitting on the bench waiting to be called into action.
Meanwhile at Universal. Transformers is a hit film...quick make a ride. Despicable Me was a hit...quick make a ride. Potter...wow, people seem to enjoy this franchise. Quick..make a world. They are putting their best players on the field for battle.
Very interesting.