Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[erasure fan1]

Why?. The Lion King (animated) made almost a billion, and more recent Lion King “live action” film made over $1.6B. That’s a ton of franchise awareness

The original lion King is beloved. The remake? Well not so much. It might have done 1.6bil but the only awareness it got was how bad and lazy the film was. And that isn't helping this film. I can only speak for me, but if this was released instead of the remake, I'm interested. But after how bad the remake was, I'll wait for streaming.

Sonic has been on an upward trend. It's a great example of why you should listen to your fan base. I truly believe that the first Sonic fails if they don't change the design. They did and it has gone nowhere but up. They've done a great job adapting the ip and each instalment has improved. That can't be said about the lion king. And lion king is my number one all time favorite Disney movie.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

a lot of families won’t

Says who? It's several weeks across "the holidays" in which to do something. Get one refillable popcorn bucket and share.

 

[Disney Irish]

The original lion King is beloved. The remake? Well not so much. It might have done 1.6bil but the only awareness it got was how bad and lazy the film was. And that isn't helping this film. I can only speak for me, but if this was released instead of the remake, I'm interested. But after how bad the remake was, I'll wait for streaming.

Sonic has been on an upward trend. It's a great example of why you should listen to your fan base. I truly believe that the first Sonic fails if they don't change the design. They did and it has gone nowhere but up. They've done a great job adapting the ip and each instalment has improved. That can't be said about the lion king. And lion king is my number one all time favorite Disney movie.

Sonic 3 opened $12M less than the second did just 2 years ago (and 3 cost $32M more to make), that doesn't appear to be an upward trend to me. We'll see what its final numbers are but if that trend continues it won't make near as much WW as the second, coming in around the mid-$300M's instead. So again that doesn't seem like an upward trend to me, but rather franchise fatigue, which many claim that many of Disney franchises also have including the live-action remakes.

 

[DKampy]

Sonic 3 opened $12M less than the second did just 2 years ago (and 3 cost $32M more to make), that doesn't appear to be an upward trend to me. We'll see what its final numbers are but if that trend continues it won't make near as much WW as the second, coming in around the mid-$300M's instead. So again that doesn't seem like an upward trend to me, but rather franchise fatigue, which many claim that many of Disney franchises also have including the live-action remakes.

IMO… Sonic will probably land where the last one did…. I think there is a limited ceiling in the appeal… I believe part of the reason is some waiting till after Christmas… however Sonic is also typically front loaded…. It’s film that getS the fan boys out for Thursday previews over other films currently out… which Is why projections were off… there was a bigger drop then originally thought…. Sony most likely knows this as the 4th one was announced for Super Mario’s date in April 2027….which struck gold

I would also like to state this is all opinion… unlike some declare their thoughts as facts

 

[Disney Irish]

IMO… Sonic will probably land where the last one did…. I think there is a limited ceiling in the appeal… I believe part of the reason is some waiting till after Christmas… however Sonic is also typically front loaded…. It’s film that getS the fan boys out for Thursday previews over other films currently out… which Is why projections were off… there was a bigger drop then originally thought…. Sony most likely knows this as the 4th one was announced for Super Mario’s date in April 2027….which struck gold

I would also like to state this is all opinion… unlike some declare their thoughts as facts

I agree I think it also has a limited ceiling. And if it is front-loaded, well, that doesn't bode well for its finally tally. But we'll see what happens over the next couple weeks as we go into the new year.

 

[DarkMetroid567]

Heartbroken at how much I disliked Sonic 3. Genuinely do not understand how this got an 86% RT.

 

[brideck]

Heartbroken at how much I disliked Sonic 3. Genuinely do not understand how this got an 86% RT.

Yeah, it's an interesting split. It's Metascore is only 59, so it's like a plurality of critics gave it 3 stars out of 5 -- just good enough to be considered fresh.

 

[erasure fan1]

Sonic 3 opened $12M less than the second did just 2 years ago (and 3 cost $32M more to make), that doesn't appear to be an upward trend to me.

It's the highest rated of the three with fans and critics. It's got great word of mouth. It's an upward trend to me. We'll see what the final numbers are going to be but as of this moment, the arrow is pointing more north than South in my opinion. The difference with me, is I can adjust, even when it's a property close to my heart. I've been a Sonic fan for 33 years. Bought it when it released for the Genesis, sonic cd is still hooked up on my tv using original hardware. If this movie does significantly less than the last, sure, then it's on a downturn. It only needs 350 to 360 mil to break even at worst. So we'll see how it ends up.

 

[coffeefan]

On the subject of Moana 2 and Mufasa being released too close together, next year Disney has:

May 23: Lilo and Stitch remake
June 13: Elio

The “original non-IP stories bomb” are already being written.

And after releasing one Marvel film this year:

Feb: Captain America
May: Thunderbolts
July: Fantastic Four

There’s gonna be MCU oversaturation at some point. Only question is how much and when.

Elio is the only Disney original and non-remake/ non-IP/sequel releasing next year I believe. So I sure hope all the people that complain about remakes and IP sequels are the first in line to see it.

 

[Disney Irish]

It only needs 350 to 360 mil to break even at worst.

That might be where it ends up based on this opening. But yes we'll see where it ends up in the final tally.

And just note I'm not rooting for it to do badly, I don't do that with any film no matter the franchise or studio unlike some posters around here. I want all films to do good as that is what leads to a better box office overall. So I got no skin in the game as it were.

 

[Ghost93]

Elio is the only Disney original and non-remake/ non-IP/sequel releasing next year I believe. So I sure hope all the people that complain about remakes and IP sequels are the first in line to see it.

I'll see it. I saw Raya, Encanto, Strange World, Wish and Elemental in theaters, so I've done my part to support original animation from Disney/Pixar, even if the movies themselves haven't always been great.

Would have seen Soul/Luca/Turning Red in theaters is they hadn't been sent straight to streaming.

And just note I'm not rooting for it to do badly, I don't do that with any film no matter the franchise or studio unlike some posters around here. I want all films to do good as that is what leads to a better box office overall. So I got no skin in the game as it were.

I want good movies to do well and bad movies to flop. Mufasa is kind of a mixed bag, so I don't care too much either way how it financially performs. I'm just glad it was much more enjoyable than the 2019 Lion King.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Elio is the only Disney original and non-remake/ non-IP/sequel releasing next year I believe. So I sure hope all the people that complain about remakes and IP sequels are the first in line to see it.

I’ll be there to show up for Elio.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Moana 2 is now past $800M worldwide with $804M WW, just $196M away from making a billion worldwide.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Moana 2 now sits at $790M WW before final weekend numbers, likely crossing over $800M before Christmas Eve. International continues to have legs even if domestic has been flat.

We'll see by the end of next weekend if it has the juice to make it close to $1B or come just shy, either way Disney is exclaiming "Cheehoo!" with this movie.

Nope…carry on

 

[Disney Irish]

Nope…carry on

Nope what? Nope it won’t cross $800M before Christmas Eve, well it did. Nope that Disney isn’t extremely happy with its performance, well they are. Nope that it won’t cross a Billion, well that remains to be seen, it’ll likely be close by the end of its run if it doesn’t. International remains strong with this one.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Nope what? Nope it won’t cross $800M before Christmas Eve, well it did. Nope that Disney isn’t extremely happy with its performance, well they are. Nope that it won’t cross a Billion, well that remains to be seen, it’ll likely be close by the end of its run if it doesn’t. International remains strong with this one.

No the billion

It may get there…BO is weird this time of year

A solid intentional hit…not so much domestic

Mufasa was predictable

The crossover with the little mermaid looks like a longshot now

 

[BrianLo]

My convictions on the end point over 1B hasn't really changed, I think that's going to look a little more clearly with where we're landing in the 900 spectrum post holidays. It seems to be limping, versus sprinting over 1B though.

What is clear to me is that every DIS movie the last 2 years has been under-called by 10-15% as people really don't seem to get how things slowly chug along for months. Stop writing post mortem's on movies still adding 100M WW per week...

 

[Disney Irish]

No the billion

It may get there…BO is weird this time of year

A solid intentional hit…not so much domestic

Mufasa was predictable

The crossover with the little mermaid looks like a longshot now

As I said we'll see, its possible to still get there. As even you acknowledge international its a hit and box office is weird this time of year.

Since my post wasn't about Mufasa not sure why bring that up now. But yes its fairly predictable that it won't be a success overall. Don't know what crossover you're talking about, but whatever.

This is still a good year for Disney with almost every single release minus Mufasa being a hit. So no matter what happens in the final numbers for Moana 2 they are extremely happy with its results even if it doesn't cross a Billion.

 

[Disney Irish]

My convictions on the end point over 1B hasn't really changed, I think that's going to look a little more clearly with where we're landing in the 900 spectrum post holidays. It seems to be limping, versus sprinting over 1B though.

What is clear to me is that every DIS movie the last 2 years has been under-called by 10-15% as people really don't seem to get how things slowly chug along for months. Stop writing post mortem's on movies still adding 100M WW per week...

If I was to guess (if it doesn't cross $1B), Moana 2 will end up in the $960-$975M range. Would still be a great run for a $150M movie that started life as a series.

 

[BrianLo]

If I was to guess (if it doesn't cross $1B), Moana 2 will end up in the $960-$975M range. Would still be a great run for a $150M movie that started life as a series.

I’d be pretty surprised if it only posts a 2.25-2.5X multiple of what it did last week with a 10 day holiday window thrown into the mix to juice things.