Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TalkingHead]

With all due respect, and because I always enjoy your perspective, using the word "modest" correctly in a sentence within the proper context of that sentence and subject does not equate to "trolling".

The data doesn't seem to show Moana 2 as a "major success" at the box office. It seems to be a "modest success", and it's trendline is heading towards flatlining rather quickly. Moana 2 has had weak legs domestically and globally since the end of Thanksgiving weekend.

Luckily, it had a very low (for Burbank) production budget because it was only supposed to be a TV show, not a big tentpole movie for Thanksgiving. So it got to profitability by its third week in theaters, even with its weak legs.

As of the box office for Wednesday, December 19th, here's what its profit looks like....

Moana 2: Production $150, Marketing $75, Domestic Take $206, Overseas Take $152 = $133 Million and counting

On its current trajectory, Moana 2 will likely pull in between $165 and $185 Million in profit for Disney. Compared to the $400 to $600 Million in profit some of Disney's other 21st century Princess movies have done, a profit of $175 Million owing to a low production budget seems like a modest success to me.

Do you know what it costs to keep the Burbank studio complex running every year with 2,500 employees with upper-middle class SoCal salaries and full medical/dental benefits and subsidized dining and free Tesla charging? Me either. But it's got to be a LOT. The Burbank studio employees can vaporize that modest profit from Moana 2 in a matter of weeks.

View attachment 831683

Moana 2 (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Moana 2 (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

thenumbers.com

It’s currently the fourth highest grossing film of the year with the worldwide gross. Isn’t that better than modest?

 

[TP2000]

It’s currently the fourth highest grossing film of the year with the worldwide gross. Isn’t that better than modest?

If that nets you only $133 Million in profit and counting and you are Disney, then the box office success for that movie seems modest to me. Perhaps the confusion comes from the fact I'm so focused on Disney, and I don't consider small indy studio movies? Comparing it to Poor Things, then Moana 2 is a huge hit, for example. But compared to other Princess movies...

When Frozen II pulled in $540 Million in profit for Burbank, $133 Million heading towards $175 Million seems modest.

To your very valid point, for the calendar year thus far, Moana 2 is in the top 5 of global movies for their box office haul. But compared to the top two movies on that list, that were both from The Walt Disney Company and its stable of flagship studios, Moana 2 is a modest success compared to the other two's bigger success. Thank goodness they only spent $150 Million on Moana 2, or else it wouldn't crack $100 Million in profit.

Moana 2 is on track to do less than half the global box office of Inside Out 2. That seems the definition of "modest" to me.

 

[TalkingHead]

If that nets you only $133 Million in profit and counting and you are Disney, then the box office success for that movie seems modest to me. Perhaps the confusion comes from the fact I'm so focused on Disney, and I don't consider small indy studio movies? Comparing it to Poor Things, then Moana 2 is a huge hit, for example. But compared to other Princess movies...

When Frozen II pulled in $540 Million in profit for Burbank, $133 Million heading towards $175 Million seems modest.

To your very valid point, for the calendar year thus far, Moana 2 is in the top 5 of global movies for their box office haul. But compared to the top two movies on that list, that were both from The Walt Disney Company and its stable of flagship studios, Moana 2 is a modest success compared to the other two's bigger success. Thank goodness they only spent $150 Million on Moana 2, or else it wouldn't crack $100 Million in profit.

Moana 2 is on track to do less than half the global box office of Inside Out 2. That seems the definition of "modest" to me.

View attachment 831687

Assuming your number is correct, how many other movies this year have netted $133 million profit?

 

[Disney Irish]

If that nets you only $133 Million in profit and counting and you are Disney, then the box office success for that movie seems modest to me. Perhaps the confusion comes from the fact I'm so focused on Disney, and I don't consider small indy studio movies? Comparing it to Poor Things, then Moana 2 is a huge hit, for example. But compared to other Princess movies...

When Frozen II pulled in $540 Million in profit for Burbank, $133 Million heading towards $175 Million seems modest.

To your very valid point, for the calendar year thus far, Moana 2 is in the top 5 of global movies for their box office haul. But compared to the top two movies on that list, that were both from The Walt Disney Company and its stable of flagship studios, Moana 2 is a modest success compared to the other two's bigger success. Thank goodness they only spent $150 Million on Moana 2, or else it wouldn't crack $100 Million in profit.

Moana 2 is on track to do less than half the global box office of Inside Out 2. That seems the definition of "modest" to me.

View attachment 831687

And this shows why things continue to be so messed up in terms of expectations. The moment that making over $100M profit on a movie is considered "modest" we know that we need a major reset again. I thought we had this reset after the pandemic, but guess not.

Also who else is calling Moana's box office "modest" besides you? Anyone in the trades? Any reviewer? Any one anywhere?

And for the record I don't think Disney is upset and calling it "modest" that Moana 2 has made over $100M in profit, NOT. ONE. BIT.

 

[TP2000]

And this shows why things continue to be so messed up in terms of expectations. The moment that making over $100M profit on a movie is considered "modest" we know that we need a major reset again. I thought we had this reset after the pandemic, but guess not.

Also who else is calling Moana's box office "modest" besides you? Anyone in the trades? Any reviewer? Any one anywhere?

I have no idea if anyone else has used my forbidden and very naughty phrase "modest success" to describe Moana 2's $133 Million and counting profit.

Instead, I just went and Googled Moana 2 news items and found this exciting prediction from a month ago... Moana 2 will surprass Inside Out 2 at the box office. (Spoiler Alert: Moana 2 will barely get half the box office of Inside Out 2)

"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.

Moana 2 Might Pull An Inside Out 2 At The Box Office - SlashFilm

Not only will Moana 2 deliver the goods at the box office, but it may also follow Inside Out 2 in becoming a smash-hit for Disney.

www.slashfilm.com

 

[TalkingHead]

"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.

Well, he’s an egregious huckster who you shouldn’t trust to tell you the color of the sky.

 

[Disney Irish]

I have no idea if anyone has used the forbidden phrase "modest success" to describe Moana 2's $133 Million and counting profit.

I just went and Googled Moana 2 news items and found this exciting prediction from a month ago... Moana 2 will surprass Inside Out 2 at the box office. (Spoiler Alert: Moana 2 will barely get half the box office of Inside Out 2)

"Some people in the know are telling me that 'Moana 2' could eclipse and outshine even the success of 'Inside Out 2,'" AMC CEO Adam Aron recently said during a quarterly earnings call.

Moana 2 Might Pull An Inside Out 2 At The Box Office - SlashFilm

Not only will Moana 2 deliver the goods at the box office, but it may also follow Inside Out 2 in becoming a smash-hit for Disney.

www.slashfilm.com

And? Just because that was what some exhibitor expected over a month ago doesn't make it "modest" now.

Also the term is not forbidden when used correctly, but there is no way someone would consider a movie making over $100M profit as being modest on a $150M budget. Every Studio on the planet would LOVE that kind of return.

 

[TP2000]

Well, he’s an egregious huckster who you shouldn’t trust to tell you the color of the sky.

I have no idea who he is, other than knowing where my local AMC theater is, but I'll trust you.

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, he’s an egregious huckster who you shouldn’t trust to tell you the color of the sky.

Well I wouldn't call him a huckster, but he sure is out there in terms of how he runs AMC.

 

[TP2000]

While we mourn the loss of proper vocabulary by daring to use the phrase "modest success" for Princess movies, here's a fun new topic to cheer us up again...

The production budgets for Sonic vs. Mufasa. Apparently Disney spent $200 Million on Mufasa, which seems par for the course for them. Paramount spent notably less on Sonic 3, at $122 Million. In Thursday previews, Sonic 3 did $6.5 Million domestically, and Mufasa did about half that even though Mufasa has 350 more theaters nationwide.

Which one gets to profitability first? Or, better question, does Mufasa stand a chance to break even?

 

[brideck]

re: Mufasa -- It's all going to depend on audience reception/word of mouth. If it manages to be this season's Wonka (which I wouldn't count on given the number of prominent animated/musical movies out right now) it could end up in similar $200m/$600m territory even with its projected opening.

Previous Sonic movies have been pretty front-loaded at the box office, so even with a stronger opening they could very well end up in similar places.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Not to re-open a can of worms but I thought the general consensus was a 2.5 times multiplayer to break even… wouldn’t that currently put Moana 2 at a $350 million profit?

To me the semantics of “moderate” success really depends on expectations, if a movie was expected to make a billion in profit and “only” made $250 million I’d call it a moderate success despite being wildly profitable, if it was expected to lose $200 million and “only” lost $25 million I’d also call it a moderate success based on expectations, even though it lost money.

I could see the argument for both sides with Moana 2, I don’t think anyone will argue it’s not a success, it’s just a matter of if you think it met expectations.

 

[Disney Irish]

Not to re-open a can of worms but I thought the general consensus was a 2.5 times multiplayer to break even… wouldn’t that currently put Moana 2 at a $350 million profit?

I got tired of correcting that over and over, and only bring it up when someone tries to label something as losing money when its clearly already in profit town.

To me the semantics of “moderate” success really depends on expectations, if a movie was expected to make a billion in profit and “only” made $250 million I’d call it a moderate success despite being wildly profitable, if it was expected to lose $200 million and “only” lost $25 million I’d also call it a moderate success based on expectations, even though it lost money.

I could see the argument for both sides with Moana 2, I don’t think anyone will argue it’s not a success, it’s just a matter of if you think it met expectations.

Its why putting this whole think into perspective is important. And why labeling something before its done is silly.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Current prediction for the domestic weekend is $70 million for Sonic, $35 million for Mufasa

 

[Serpico Jones]

Mufasa looking like a big time flop.

 

[TP2000]

Okay gang, here's the Thursday box office with Preview showings for Mufasa and Sonic factored in. I'm afraid the king of the jungle is going to leave a photorealistic lump of coal in Bob Iger's stocking this year.

Christmas vacation is now upon us, and I've got a trip down to SoCal through New Year's planned, plus I gave Mr. Johnson and Connie (our pretty pre-show hostess in the polyester jumpsuit) the two weeks off so they could also be with their families. So I'm afraid updates from the TP2000 Global Command Center will be spotty at best as we track the first two weeks of Mufasa and the slow, arduous climb left to get Moana 2 to something shy of a Billion. I just worry that you'll worry if the updates and Deep Thoughts from me on box office don't come regularly the next two weeks.

But a very Merry Christmas to everyone here, and wishing you all a Boffo Box Office in 2025!

 

[Disney Irish]

Mufasa looking like a big time flop.

If it does it'll be one of the few for Disney this year. So I think all things considered with $5B in global box office Disney will consider that a win.

 

[BrianLo]

On its current trajectory, Moana 2 will likely pull in between $165 and $185 Million in profit for Disney. Compared to the $400 to $600 Million in profit some of Disney's other 21st century Princess movies have done, a profit of $175 Million owing to a low production budget seems like a modest success to me.

Thank you for indirectly answering my question, even if you sort of bounced away from it. So Despicable Me 4 isn’t modest. Moana 2 is at half the projected earnings (in your projections).

I’ll even go out of my way to agree with you. I wouldn’t be outrageously upset if we land where you think we are headed and continue to use the word modest. Looks like you have the global take petering out around 800M now.

Do you know what it costs to keep the Burbank studio complex running every year with 2,500 employees with upper-middle class SoCal salaries and full medical/dental benefits and subsidized dining and free Tesla charging? Me either. But it's got to be a LOT. The Burbank studio employees can vaporize that modest profit from Moana 2 in a matter of weeks.

Studio costs are the reason these movies have bloated budgets. This isn’t a double dipping scenario. It probably costs them 75-100M keeping everyone employed and working on the one movie release annually. Which is why a production outfit like WDAS can’t keep their annual films budgets below 200M these days.

As we stand Moana 2 is really just covering up last years loss. Though Frozen 2 was certainly good for many years. But there isn’t an additional loss, WDAS recouped their money to keep the lights on this year by merely breaking even. It’s the reason there’s some criticism of Illumination budgetary reporting practices.

 

[BrianLo]

re: Mufasa -- It's all going to depend on audience reception/word of mouth. If it manages to be this season's Wonka (which I wouldn't count on given the number of prominent animated/musical movies out right now) it could end up in similar $200m/$600m territory even with its projected opening.

Previous Sonic movies have been pretty front-loaded at the box office, so even with a stronger opening they could very well end up in similar places.

There’s also a lot more international strength expected from Mufasa, but that’s probably counteracted with Sonics budget. It might actually be a slightly close race.

 

[BrianLo]

But a very Merry Christmas to everyone here, and wishing you all a Boffo Box Office in 2025!

You too, safe travels and Merry Christmas.