I wish I had half a billion dollars so that I could live a modest life.
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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
TP2000
Well-Known Member
For a lifetime income for one person, $500 Million would be a bonanza.
For a movie that cost $225 Million to produce and get to market, $500 Million would be a modest box office take for a studio.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I still know exactly what the word modest means. Compared to other recent Disney films, Moana 2 is a modest success.
CinematicFusion
Well-Known Member
To be fair, if Wicked hits 900 million globally it’s more than a modest success. I mean.. $900 million globally on a $250 million budget would be considered a major success, not a modest one.
Maybe not greatest of all time type numbers and maybe studio was hoping for more but the studio should be happy if it hit 900 million mark by end of run.
Now compare Moana 2 to the first Moana
Also what was the budget inflation for Frozen 2?
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
While Moana 2 is undeniably a financial success, I believe if it were actually a good movie with great songs that people would want to sing and re-listen to, it could have made around $1.5 billion. Between this and the unnecessary remake coming out next year, I think the Moana brand will be somewhat tarnished by the time Moana 3 comes around.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
We’ve moved from modest to dismal. I give you a gold star for being highly inflammatory!
if only this movie was still in theatres with a major holiday earning window or something…
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Here’s the actual relevant WDAS chart that the Global command center is withholding.
Inflationary adjustment is moot when Moana 2 already has the low production budget. Inflating the earnings just inflates every other films production budget… and boy was I reassured for all of 2023 that we only normalize earnings against budgets.
Inflationary adjustment is moot when Moana 2 already has the low production budget. Inflating the earnings just inflates every other films production budget… and boy was I reassured for all of 2023 that we only normalize earnings against budgets.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Sorry, I may have phrased that wrong. I was talking about Moana 2 that appears to be on a trajectory to $900-ish Million.
I haven't really looked at where Wicked may end up globally by January. But I doubt it's going to get close to $900 Million with its weak overseas box office.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Even $900M for Moana2 on a $150M budget isn't modest, that is a huge success financially even if it didn't cross $1B.
Your usage of "modest" here is flawed in my opinion.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Happy to do that. Interestingly, the budget for Frozen II in 2019 had no inflation from Frozen in 2012. They both had budgets of $150 Million in their respective years, but that was a $22 Million budget deflation for Frozen II in 2019.
I don't power up and turn on the blinky lights in the TP2000 Global Command Center until after I've had lunch. And trust me when I say that Mr. Johnson is not a morning person either, and he won't even put on his white lab coat until Noon at the earliest.
But I'm here now in the Command Center and I've turned on the blinky lights and Mr. Johnson is in full costume. So here's how the inflation adjusted chart looks like for those movies. This is a fun one, because I had forgotten how much Strange World absolutely bombed two years ago! Phew, that one was brutal.
I don't know why we wouldn't adjust historic box office for inflation? I don't think there's a need to do that for films from only a year or two ago, but there's definitely a need to factor in the 20% or more rise in costs from pre-Covid and any movie released in 2019 or earlier. There's a reason The Numbers site offers a prominent "Inflation Adjusted" switch on charts.
If you don't adjust for inflation, you get charts that can look like this showing Moana 2 on track to beat Star Wars at the global box office. (Extreme and witty example, but I think you get my point that inflation matters to budgets and profits)
TP2000
Well-Known Member
My usage of "modest success" is in the context of the other very successful Princess movies Disney has released that easily went to $1.5 Billion or above (inflation adjusted for movies from the 1990's-2010's) at the global box office.
If Moana 2 had come from some small indy animation studio out of Portland, Oregon who had a tiny budget and an old cappuccino machine in the break room to work with and no previous track record for blockbusters, then the Moana 2 box office from a studio like that would be massive and mind blowingly huge.
But for the The Walt Disney Company and its annual Thanksgiving release window? Moana 2 is a modest success globally. And owing to its comparatively small Made For TV production budget, it's already profitable for Burbank. Which is probably all they care about.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
If you're just comparing it to other Disney releases, why not End Game or Avatar then too. Because in that context Moana 2 is a huge failure because it didn't make $2B or more.My usage of "modest success" is in the context of the other very successful Princess movies Disney has released that easily went to $1.5 Billion or above (inflation adjusted for movies from the 1990's-2010's) at the global box office.
If Moana 2 had come from some small indy animation studio out of Portland, Oregon who had a tiny budget and an old cappuccino machine in the break room to work with and no previous track record for blockbusters, then the Moana 2 box office from a studio like that would be massive and mind blowingly huge.
But for the The Walt Disney Company and its annual Thanksgiving release window? Moana 2 is a modest success globally. And owing to its comparatively small Made For TV production budget, it's already profitable for Burbank. Which is probably all they care about.
This is why context matters, its a huge financial success for its franchise compared to the first movie. Its also a huge financial success based on its budget. This "modest success" usage is not really putting things into perspective.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Because those are PG-13 action movies aimed at a different audience than a G/PG rated Princess cartoon.
See my comparison of the inflation non-adjusted comparison of Moana 2 and Star Wars as an example of how silly that becomes. Moana 2 should mainly be compared to other Disney Princess cartoons, not Gone With The Wind or Titanic.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
This is why this whole thing needs to be put into perspective. Comparing to other movies is fine again if put into perspective. Because compared to its budget its a huge financial success even if it hasn't hit $1B yet, and saying otherwise is not being honest and just looking to pick fights.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Happy to do that. Interestingly, the budget for Frozen II in 2019 had no inflation from Frozen in 2012. They both had budgets of $150 Million in their respective years, but that was a $22 Million budget deflation for Frozen II in 2019.
I don't power up and turn on the blinky lights in the TP2000 Global Command Center until after I've had lunch. And trust me when I say that Mr. Johnson is not a morning person either, and he won't even put on his white lab coat until Noon at the earliest.
But I'm here now in the Command Center and I've turned on the blinky lights and Mr. Johnson is in full costume. So here's how the inflation adjusted chart looks like for those movies. This is a fun one, because I had forgotten how much Strange World absolutely bombed two years ago! Phew, that one was brutal.
View attachment 831572
I don't know why we wouldn't adjust historic box office for inflation? I don't think there's a need to do that for films from only a year or two ago, but there's definitely a need to factor in the 20% or more rise in costs from pre-Covid and any movie released in 2019 or earlier. There's a reason The Numbers site offers a prominent "Inflation Adjusted" switch on charts.
If you don't adjust for inflation, you get charts that can look like this showing Moana 2 on track to beat Star Wars at the global box office. (Extreme and witty example, but I think you get my point that inflation matters to budgets and profits)
View attachment 831570
You may certainly do so, but then you need to caveat that Moana 2 has the lowest budget of any film from WDAS. The two essentially cancel one another out, but that visually isn’t as easy to spot on the fancy chart.
I think you are smart enough to realize you are constantly playing with films on your charts and present us the ones that best sell your chosen narrative. Some of your comps are completely wild, or you wouldn’t bring up Barbie every few days.
Of course we all know how to engage in TP charting, just play with enough toggles and random comps and you can pretty much say whatever you want about any film. Then say Oof!
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Wait, Moana 2 is only a modest success?
Try extricating yourself from the thread and then reading this stuff cold.
With a hint of dismal. Wicked is a total flop I fear.
But buckle up because I actually think we’re all about to have a total heyday with Mufasa, Moana 2 is modestly boring; so I appreciate the funny repartee TP is actually quite good at driving!
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
Yeah I don't get where TP2000 is coming from, besides possibly trolling. I REALLY don't like Moana 2 and what its success means for the future of Disney animation, but even I can't deny it's a major success from a financial perspective.
Chi84
Premium Member
