Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Ghost93]

While Moana 2 is undeniably a financial success, I believe if it were actually a good movie with great songs that people would want to sing and re-listen to, it could have made around $1.5 billion. Between this and the unnecessary remake coming out next year, I think the Moana brand will be somewhat tarnished by the time Moana 3 comes around.

 

[BrianLo]

Especially the rather dismal overseas box office for Moana 2. Oof!

We’ve moved from modest to dismal. I give you a gold star for being highly inflammatory!

if only this movie was still in theatres with a major holiday earning window or something…

 

[BrianLo]

Here’s the actual relevant WDAS chart that the Global command center is withholding.

Inflationary adjustment is moot when Moana 2 already has the low production budget. Inflating the earnings just inflates every other films production budget… and boy was I reassured for all of 2023 that we only normalize earnings against budgets.

 

[TP2000]

To be fair, if Wicked hits 900 million globally it’s more than a modest success. I mean.. $900 million globally on a $250 million budget would be considered a major success, not a modest one.
Maybe not greatest of all time type numbers and maybe studio was hoping for more but the studio should be happy if it hit 900 million mark by end of run.

Sorry, I may have phrased that wrong. I was talking about Moana 2 that appears to be on a trajectory to $900-ish Million.

I haven't really looked at where Wicked may end up globally by January. But I doubt it's going to get close to $900 Million with its weak overseas box office.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sorry, I may have phrased that wrong. I was talking about Moana 2 that appears to be on a trajectory to $900-ish Million.

I haven't really looked at where Wicked may end up globally by January. But I doubt it's going to get close to $900 Million with its weak overseas box office.

Even $900M for Moana2 on a $150M budget isn't modest, that is a huge success financially even if it didn't cross $1B.

Your usage of "modest" here is flawed in my opinion.

 

[TP2000]

Now compare Moana 2 to the first Moana

Also what was the budget inflation for Frozen 2?

Happy to do that. Interestingly, the budget for Frozen II in 2019 had no inflation from Frozen in 2012. They both had budgets of $150 Million in their respective years, but that was a $22 Million budget deflation for Frozen II in 2019.

Here’s the actual relevant WDAS chart that the Global command center is withholding.

View attachment 831488

I don't power up and turn on the blinky lights in the TP2000 Global Command Center until after I've had lunch. And trust me when I say that Mr. Johnson is not a morning person either, and he won't even put on his white lab coat until Noon at the earliest.

But I'm here now in the Command Center and I've turned on the blinky lights and Mr. Johnson is in full costume. So here's how the inflation adjusted chart looks like for those movies. This is a fun one, because I had forgotten how much Strange World absolutely bombed two years ago! Phew, that one was brutal.

Inflationary adjustment is moot when Moana 2 already has the low production budget. Inflating the earnings just inflates every other films production budget… and boy was I reassured for all of 2023 that we only normalize earnings against budgets.

I don't know why we wouldn't adjust historic box office for inflation? I don't think there's a need to do that for films from only a year or two ago, but there's definitely a need to factor in the 20% or more rise in costs from pre-Covid and any movie released in 2019 or earlier. There's a reason The Numbers site offers a prominent "Inflation Adjusted" switch on charts.

If you don't adjust for inflation, you get charts that can look like this showing Moana 2 on track to beat Star Wars at the global box office. (Extreme and witty example, but I think you get my point that inflation matters to budgets and profits)

 

[TP2000]

Even $900M for Moana2 on a $150M budget isn't modest, that is a huge success financially even if it didn't cross $1B.

Your usage of "modest" here is flawed in my opinion.

My usage of "modest success" is in the context of the other very successful Princess movies Disney has released that easily went to $1.5 Billion or above (inflation adjusted for movies from the 1990's-2010's) at the global box office.

If Moana 2 had come from some small indy animation studio out of Portland, Oregon who had a tiny budget and an old cappuccino machine in the break room to work with and no previous track record for blockbusters, then the Moana 2 box office from a studio like that would be massive and mind blowingly huge.

But for the The Walt Disney Company and its annual Thanksgiving release window? Moana 2 is a modest success globally. And owing to its comparatively small Made For TV production budget, it's already profitable for Burbank. Which is probably all they care about.

 

[Disney Irish]

My usage of "modest success" is in the context of the other very successful Princess movies Disney has released that easily went to $1.5 Billion or above (inflation adjusted for movies from the 1990's-2010's) at the global box office.

If Moana 2 had come from some small indy animation studio out of Portland, Oregon who had a tiny budget and an old cappuccino machine in the break room to work with and no previous track record for blockbusters, then the Moana 2 box office from a studio like that would be massive and mind blowingly huge.

But for the The Walt Disney Company and its annual Thanksgiving release window? Moana 2 is a modest success globally. And owing to its comparatively small Made For TV production budget, it's already profitable for Burbank. Which is probably all they care about.

If you're just comparing it to other Disney releases, why not End Game or Avatar then too. Because in that context Moana 2 is a huge failure because it didn't make $2B or more.

This is why context matters, its a huge financial success for its franchise compared to the first movie. Its also a huge financial success based on its budget. This "modest success" usage is not really putting things into perspective.

 

[TP2000]

If you're just comparing it to other Disney releases, why not End Game or Avatar then too.

Because those are PG-13 action movies aimed at a different audience than a G/PG rated Princess cartoon.

See my comparison of the inflation non-adjusted comparison of Moana 2 and Star Wars as an example of how silly that becomes. Moana 2 should mainly be compared to other Disney Princess cartoons, not Gone With The Wind or Titanic.

 

[Chi84]

Wait, Moana 2 is only a modest success?

Try extricating yourself from the thread and then reading this stuff cold.

 

[Disney Irish]

Because those are PG-13 action movies aimed at a different audience than a G/PG rated Princess cartoon.

See my comparison of the inflation non-adjusted comparison of Moana 2 and Star Wars as an example of how silly that becomes. Moana 2 should mainly be compared to other Disney Princess cartoons, not Gone With The Wind or Titanic.

This is why this whole thing needs to be put into perspective. Comparing to other movies is fine again if put into perspective. Because compared to its budget its a huge financial success even if it hasn't hit $1B yet, and saying otherwise is not being honest and just looking to pick fights.

 

[BrianLo]

Happy to do that. Interestingly, the budget for Frozen II in 2019 had no inflation from Frozen in 2012. They both had budgets of $150 Million in their respective years, but that was a $22 Million budget deflation for Frozen II in 2019.



I don't power up and turn on the blinky lights in the TP2000 Global Command Center until after I've had lunch. And trust me when I say that Mr. Johnson is not a morning person either, and he won't even put on his white lab coat until Noon at the earliest.

But I'm here now in the Command Center and I've turned on the blinky lights and Mr. Johnson is in full costume. So here's how the inflation adjusted chart looks like for those movies. This is a fun one, because I had forgotten how much Strange World absolutely bombed two years ago! Phew, that one was brutal.

View attachment 831572



I don't know why we wouldn't adjust historic box office for inflation? I don't think there's a need to do that for films from only a year or two ago, but there's definitely a need to factor in the 20% or more rise in costs from pre-Covid and any movie released in 2019 or earlier. There's a reason The Numbers site offers a prominent "Inflation Adjusted" switch on charts.

If you don't adjust for inflation, you get charts that can look like this showing Moana 2 on track to beat Star Wars at the global box office. (Extreme and witty example, but I think you get my point that inflation matters to budgets and profits)

View attachment 831570

You may certainly do so, but then you need to caveat that Moana 2 has the lowest budget of any film from WDAS. The two essentially cancel one another out, but that visually isn’t as easy to spot on the fancy chart.

I think you are smart enough to realize you are constantly playing with films on your charts and present us the ones that best sell your chosen narrative. Some of your comps are completely wild, or you wouldn’t bring up Barbie every few days.

Of course we all know how to engage in TP charting, just play with enough toggles and random comps and you can pretty much say whatever you want about any film. Then say Oof!

 

[BrianLo]

Wait, Moana 2 is only a modest success?

Try extricating yourself from the thread and then reading this stuff cold.

With a hint of dismal. Wicked is a total flop I fear.

But buckle up because I actually think we’re all about to have a total heyday with Mufasa, Moana 2 is modestly boring; so I appreciate the funny repartee TP is actually quite good at driving!

 

[Ghost93]

This is why this whole thing needs to be put into perspective. Comparing to other movies is fine again if put into perspective. Because compared to its budget its a huge financial success even if it hasn't hit $1B yet, and saying otherwise is not being honest and just looking to pick fights.

Yeah I don't get where TP2000 is coming from, besides possibly trolling. I REALLY don't like Moana 2 and what its success means for the future of Disney animation, but even I can't deny it's a major success from a financial perspective.

 

[Chi84]

besides possibly trolling.

 

[Disney Irish]

You may certainly do so, but then you need to caveat that Moana 2 has the lowest budget of any film from WDAS. The two essentially cancel one another out, but that visually isn’t as easy to spot on the fancy chart.

I think you are smart enough to realize you are constantly playing with films on your charts and present us the ones that best sell your chosen narrative. Some of your comps are completely wild, or you wouldn’t bring up Barbie every few days.

Of course we all know how to engage in TP charting, just play with enough toggles and random comps and you can pretty much say whatever you want about any film. Then say Oof!


View attachment 831579

I mean if we're doing comparisons, why not this years other animation releases not named Inside Out 2 -

I mean compared to Moana 2's "moderate success" those others are surely failures.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Can we also put these box office numbers into the context of movie going post 2020? The world of cinema going has changed.

 

[TP2000]

You may certainly do so, but then you need to caveat that Moana 2 has the lowest budget of any film from WDAS. The two essentially cancel one another out, but that visually isn’t as easy to spot on the fancy chart.

How many times do I have to repeat the phrase Made For TV budget in this thread? It's already coming up on a dozen or so in the past week. That's what helped Moana 2 reach profitability so quickly in its third week, even with unimpressuive overseas box office and modest success at home.

I think you are smart enough to realize you are constantly playing with films on your charts and present us the ones that best sell your chosen narrative. Some of your comps are completely wild, or you wouldn’t bring up Barbie every few days.

Many of the comps discussed in the past week were brought up here by others, and I happily plugged them in. Care to suggest one we haven't discussed yet? Maybe there's some inflation adjusted analogy to 1992's Aladdin, for example?

Name a film, and I can have Mr. Johnson insert an IBM card into his console for us.

Of course we all know how to engage in TP charting, just play with enough toggles and random comps and you can pretty much say whatever you want about any film. Then say Oof!


View attachment 831579

You forgot to include the actual financial figures at the bottom of that chart. Oof! Here's what that chart looks like adjusted for inflation and including Moana 2.

Using a quick 50% of global box office and some damp cocktail napkin math that adds half the production budget to account for the marketing, I come up with these broad ballpark figures for profit on these five profitable movies:

Moana 2 = $135 Million profit and counting, AKA "Modest Success So Far"
Avengers = $900 Million profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Decade"
Avatar = $1.6 Billion (with a B) profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Century"
Barbie = $500 Million profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Year"
Frozen = $540 Million profit, AKA "Blockbuster Of The Year"

Moana 2 is on track to do a tad over half the global box office that Frozen did, adjusted for inflation. It's profit will likely be less than half of Frozen's, even with its small Made For TV production budget. Surely we can see that there's a difference in financial and cultural impact between something like Frozen and Moana 2?

At least I can see that difference. It's sitting right there in plain numbers.

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Moana-2-(2024)/Avengers-Endgame-(2019)/Avatar/Barbie-(2023)/Frozen-(2013)?mode=actuals#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[TP2000]

I mean if we're doing comparisons, why not this years other animation releases not named Inside Out 2 -

View attachment 831581

I mean compared to Moana 2's "moderate success" those others are surely failures.

One eeked out a small profit, two were modest successes, one was the clear winner (Despicable Me). You have to include the financials and their budgets to get that story. A chart alone doesn't prove much unless every movie on the chart has the exact same production and marketing costs.

Moana 2 = $135 Million profit so far
Despicable Me 4 = $335 Million profit
Kung Fu Panda 4 = $145 Million profit
Garfield = $30 Million profit

Choosing from that list, I'd rather be the studio exec who approved Despicable Me 4, wouldn't you?

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Moana-2-(2024)/Despicable-Me-4-(2024)/Kung-Fu-Panda-4-(2024)/Garfield-Movie-The-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[Disney Irish]

One eeked out a small profit, two were modest successes, one was the clear winner (Despicable Me). You have to include the financials and their budgets to get that story. A chart alone doesn't prove much unless every movie on the chart has the exact same production and marketing costs.

View attachment 831583

Moana 2 = $135 Million profit so far
Despicable Me 4 = $335 Million profit
Kung Fu Panda 4 = $145 Million profit
Garfield = $30 Million profit

Choosing from that list, I'd rather be the studio exec who approved Despicable Me 4, wouldn't you?

https://www.the-numbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons-extended/Moana-2-(2024)/Despicable-Me-4-(2024)/Kung-Fu-Panda-4-(2024)/Garfield-Movie-The-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

Nope, I wouldn't want to be because if we're doing comparisons then Moana 2 is trending higher and will likely make more than Despicable Me 4. Again context matters here and you cherry pick all your data, as shown by your recent posts and all the responses to it.