Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

DisneyWarrior27

Active Member
If Joker 2 bombs, it’s a big warning sign for Superman, especially after 5 non-streaming, Post-pandemic, DC films that either underperformed, disappointed, bombed, or flopped at the box office.

And it’s also a sign the shroud of Snyder’s DC universe has fallen and will continue to haunt DC til the end of time, unless it’s The Batman.
 

DKampy

Well-Known Member
I guess what I meant was how Wish doing as badly as it did reflects badly on WDFAS and (perhaps more so) Disney corporate right now. I'm not surprised The Wild Robot is getting a good reception - it looks lovely from the trailers and Dreamworks clearly worked hard to sell it. And with the next month thin on the ground for family pictures it's well-positioned to hang on the way Elemental did last year. But those movies are ones that lots of people actually liked. It's weird Disney failed to at least make a worthwhile movie for their centennial, given they clearly were expecting people to show up and love it with the marketing and merchandising push they gave it. (Of course they did the same thing with Pocahontas.)
I still don’t see the comparisons… just to point out Disney bad…. Why not compare it to Inside out 2…. As they are both family films…. It would be just as random
BoxOfficePro has steadily been downgrading its estimates for the first weekend on the basis of lousy presales and the blah reception it got at the Venice Film Festival.
The original Joker got the same 60 ish percent on rotten tomatoes after premiering at a festival( Don’t remember which one could have been Venice) Until eventually reaching the lukewarm 69%… which is what makes me uncertain about it’s potential
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
2024 looks pretty safe from flops with only Moana 2 and Mufasa left to release, Mufasa being a little questionable but I think with IO2s massive success it will at the very least be profitable. 2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

I do think some of this looks good in the rear view mirror. Apes and Aliens felt much more risky last year.

Inside Out 2 I think every sane person under-predicted by at least half. Moana 2 now feels a lot safer after seeing the public is not unwilling to turn out in droves for Disney animated films. I still think Mufasa will be a miss (Alice through the looking glass), not that it matters too much for them after the string of hits this year.


But I agree, 2025 is more exciting. Simply because there is way more product.

I too feel so bad at predicting Disney Box Office these days. Still, I don't think it's possible for us to have a 2023 repeat next year. Avatar is a near guaranteed high note. I feel very strongly about Zootopia 2 (I think its International, particularly Asian audience uptake is under-valued) and Fantastic 4, unless they totally mess it up.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Mufasa will be a Rorschach test for gauging the prevalence of those perpetually angry at Disney.

Their anger about live-action remakes is that it's either too close a remake ("It's just the same story beat for beat!!!") or that it changes the story too much ("They changed the story and thereby ruined it!!!!"). Well, Mufasa isn't a remake.

The other 'critique' of the live-action remake was that the facial expressions were too expressionless. In trying to be realistic, Disney didn't get the 'realistic' animals to facially emote like humans do. But, for Mufasa, they're making the characters more expressive. Although, that might lead to howls of "animals don't emote like that!!!" (Sorta forgetting that it's animation.)

They'll most likely go for "ugh! it's a sequel!" as if sequels are inherently bad. Tell that to:
  • The Godfather Part II (1974)
  • X-Men: First Class (2011)
  • Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)
  • Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016)
  • The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (1966)
  • Bumblebee (2018)
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012)
  • Prey (2022)
  • every movie set in the past, which is a prequel of every movie set at a later date ;)


[take note: this is how one does a proper prebuttal]

.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Mufasa will be a Rorschach test for gauging the prevalence of those perpetually angry at Disney.
I'm not so sure. Lion king did 1.6bil. Sure it's not anyone's favourite live action remake but I can see this doing well enough. I doubt it hits the firsts high. But The ip is powerful enough to have people give it a chance since, as you say, it's not a remake. I've said it before, they should have just skipped lion king and just did this instead.
Their anger about live-action remakes is that it's either too close a remake ("It's just the same story beat for beat!!!") or that it changes the story too much ("They changed the story and thereby ruined it!!!!"). Well, Mufasa isn't a remake.

The other 'critique' of the live-action remake was that the facial expressions were too expressionless. In trying to be realistic, Disney didn't get the 'realistic' animals to facially emote like humans do. But, for Mufasa, they're making the characters more expressive. Although, that might lead to howls of "animals don't emote like that!!!" (Sorta forgetting that it's animation.)
I'm sure all that will be brought up. But what's the actual issue? There's no need for them for a lot of people. They sell on their history of the original and a huge percentage of people leave and go, eh, the original was better, what was the point? Disney knows this so they keep making them. It's always going to be a catch 22. Stray to far from the original and people will be mad, keep it too similar, what's the point. So I personally expect that everyone will complain about all the usual things, they'll still make money, therefore Disney keeps pushing forward. Unless the next few bomb lightyear/wish hard, pixar films are coming.
They'll most likely go for "ugh! it's a sequel!" as if sequels are inherently bad. Tell that to:
  • The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012)
Oh I tell it to that turd of a film series every chance I get. ;)

In all seriousness, I don't think many have a problem with sequels. It's the over reliance on them that people are a bit fed up with, cough*toystory5*cough

Personally, if the live action remake endeavor was telling storys within the ips universe, sequel/prequel/ all new characters and story...they would be much more accepted. If they had done that, I know I'd be up for it.

The other thing is they should have limited actual remakes to something they could actually make better than the original. Beware, broken record time. Something like the black cauldron is perfect to try and remake. There's not many who hold that film as a classic Disney production. So you then don't have the weight of something like a mermaid, Aladdin, snow White, lion king...to compare to.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Active Member
I'm not so sure. Lion king did 1.6bil. Sure it's not anyone's favourite live action remake but I can see this doing well enough. I doubt it hits the firsts high. But The ip is powerful enough to have people give it a chance since, as you say, it's not a remake. I've said it before, they should have just skipped lion king and just did this instead.

I'm sure all that will be brought up. But what's the actual issue? There's no need for them for a lot of people. They sell on their history of the original and a huge percentage of people leave and go, eh, the original was better, what was the point? Disney knows this so they keep making them. It's always going to be a catch 22. Stray to far from the original and people will be mad, keep it too similar, what's the point. So I personally expect that everyone will complain about all the usual things, they'll still make money, therefore Disney keeps pushing forward. Unless the next few bomb lightyear/wish hard, pixar films are coming.

Oh I tell it to that turd of a film series every chance I get. ;)

In all seriousness, I don't think many have a problem with sequels. It's the over reliance on them that people are a bit fed up with, cough*toystory5*cough

Personally, if the live action remake endeavor was telling storys within the ips universe, sequel/prequel/ all new characters and story...they would be much more accepted. If they had done that, I know I'd be up for it.

The other thing is they should have limited actual remakes to something they could actually make better than the original. Beware, broken record time. Something like the black cauldron is perfect to try and remake. There's not many who hold that film as a classic Disney production. So you then don't have the weight of something like a mermaid, Aladdin, snow White, lion king...to compare to.
Hey, at least Toy Story 5 has a genius and contemporary idea that might make it work.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
First weekend in October is upon us and while Joker 2 is opening he doesn't appear to be laughing quite yet. Joker 2 doing half of what the original did for its Thursday night previews, and hoping for a $50M weekend which seems unlikely.

Thursday previews -

1728094915737.png


Romulus is down to limited theaters. DP&W may lose some more theaters this weekend, but looking pretty slim to bring in much more. So it may not surpass Barbie, but will be close.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Active Member
First weekend in October is upon us and while Joker 2 is opening he doesn't appear to be laughing quite yet. Joker 2 doing half of what the original did for its Thursday night previews, and hoping for a $50M weekend which seems unlikely.

Thursday previews -

View attachment 819229

Romulus is down to limited theaters. DP&W may lose some more theaters this weekend, but looking pretty slim to bring in much more. So it may not surpass Barbie, but will be close.
I don’t know. Deadpool & Wolverine is still holding strong and only decreasing theaters by 20% or less, plus with the 4-day Columbus Day Weeekend next weekend, it may pass Barbie when all is said and done.

Patience and time is key.

Hey, look look. See? It only loses 19% of screens this weekend: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257750830-Theater-counts-Joker-launches-in-4-102-theaters
 
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Disney Irish

Premium Member
I don’t know. Deadpool & Wolverine is still holding strong and only decreasing theaters by 20% or less, plus with the 4-day Columbus Day Weeekend next weekend, it may pass Barbie when all is said and done.

Patience and time is key.

Hey, look look. See? It only lost 19% of screens this weekend: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257750830-Theater-counts-Joker-launches-in-4-102-theaters
Not sure why you're so invested in it surpassing Barbie, but as I said it'll be close. It still has to earn $4M to surpass Barbie. Not saying its impossible, but its going to be real close. I suspect it'll bring in half of what it did last weekend, which would be a little over $1M, for this weekend.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
This will be a flop for the ages.


It's the worst cinemascore of any super hero film ever. Fantastic 4, Morbius, Lady Webb, etc etc. Those were all C grades.

I'm certain it's not actually that bad. But they tricked Snyder fanboys into a jukebox musical and paid the price.

I'm really curious to watch the stunning drop off that this type of CineamaScore predicts.
 

erasure fan1

Well-Known Member
Very interesting collapse of Joker. It really wasn’t that long ago we weren’t certain what would be the bigger R rated movie of the year!

WB is having a very uneven year.
This movie pretty much sums up the problems with all entertainment companies. What was the goal with this film? Who was it made for? This outcome was never really a mystery, at least once it came out that the musical aspect of the film "was an essential part of the film". Did they think big comic book fans would like it, musical fans? Who sat down and said you know what would be cool, making the joker a musical. Worse yet, who actually approved it.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
This movie pretty much sums up the problems with all entertainment companies. What was the goal with this film? Who was it made for? This outcome was never really a mystery, at least once it came out that the musical aspect of the film "was an essential part of the film". Did they think big comic book fans would like it, musical fans? Who sat down and said you know what would be cool, making the joker a musical. Worse yet, who actually approved it.
It was likely approved by Zaslav himself in 2022 after he bought WB and needed to make cash, trying to capitalize on the recent Billion dollar movie. Notice how Hamada left just shortly after, he didn't even want the first Joker as it took the character away from its origins.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
It's the worst cinemascore of any super hero film ever. Fantastic 4, Morbius, Lady Webb, etc etc. Those were all C grades.

I'm certain it's not actually that bad. But they tricked Snyder fanboys into a jukebox musical and paid the price.

I'm really curious to watch the stunning drop off that this type of CineamaScore predicts.
It wasn't bad, but it certainly wasn't like the first film and took the character even further away from what makes Joker Joker. I won't spoil it, but the ending tries to be, in my opinion, a homage to Ledger's Joker but even that in my opinion ruins the origins of that portrayal.

I have a feeling that there is a cut of this film that is better than what was released (as is often the case), so hopefully one day we'll get to see the directors cut.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Yeah so for all the griping about the current state of the MCU, at least its way better off than what is happening over at DC.

If I'm Feige I'm thanking my lucky stars that the MCU is still looking golden right now.
 

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