Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Vegas Disney Fan]

He's happily contributing to other threads, so the more pertinent question is what's changed to have stopped him posting here? I would second the answer given by @Chi84. Keep your fingers crossed for a flop if you'd like to see him back.

2024 looks pretty safe from flops with only Moana 2 and Mufasa left to release, Mufasa being a little questionable but I think with IO2s massive success it will at the very least be profitable. 2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

 

[LittleBuford]

2024 looks pretty safe from flops with only Moana 2 and Mufasa left to release, Mufasa being a little questionable but I think with IO2s massive success it will at the very least be profitable. 2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

I've given up on trying to predict the box office, but your assessment seems sound to me.

 

[LittleBuford]

Saw Beetlejuice Beetlejuice last weekend. Great fun, and a worthy sequel in my book!

 

[DKampy]

Saw Beetlejuice Beetlejuice last weekend. Great fun, and a worthy sequel in my book!

Agreed about Beetlejuice Beetlejuice…. I appreciated they kept the special Fx in line with the original…. Rather than feel the need to to go too modern… it helped to bring me right back to that workd

 

[Miss Rori]

The Wild Robot so far is having a decent opening for a non-sequel animated feature with $35 million currently expected (and great audience response).

‘Wild Robot’ Powers To Third Best September Animated Debut With $35M; ‘Megalopolis’ Collapses With $4M & D+ CinemaScore; ‘Saturday Night’ Alive In Limited Release — Sunday Box Office Update

'The Wild Robot' is outperforming its box office projection with a $35M opening while Francis Ford Coppola's 'Megalopolis' is bombing with under $5M.

deadline.com

If that number holds out that would be a bigger 3-day take than the 5-day Thanksgiving weekend take for Wish!

 

[Disney Irish]

2024 looks pretty safe from flops with only Moana 2 and Mufasa left to release, Mufasa being a little questionable but I think with IO2s massive success it will at the very least be profitable. 2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

Disney also has 3 Searchlight movies left to release this year (if the dates hold) -

A Real Pain - November 1st
NightB*tch - December 6th
A Complete Unknown - December 25th

 

[Disney Irish]

The Wild Robot so far is having a decent opening for a non-sequel animated feature with $35 million currently expected (and great audience response).

‘Wild Robot’ Powers To Third Best September Animated Debut With $35M; ‘Megalopolis’ Collapses With $4M & D+ CinemaScore; ‘Saturday Night’ Alive In Limited Release — Sunday Box Office Update

'The Wild Robot' is outperforming its box office projection with a $35M opening while Francis Ford Coppola's 'Megalopolis' is bombing with under $5M.

deadline.com

If that number holds out that would be a bigger 3-day take than the 5-day Thanksgiving weekend take for Wish!

There we go, I knew it wouldn't take long before someone came in and started to take digs at Wish again. Guess that is all that can be done since 2024 will be a success for Disney.

 

[Miss Rori]

2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

I don't see anything but losses for most of the 2025 lineup (aside from Zootopia 2) out of the "tentpole" titles. The two MCU movies and Snow White look to be way too expensive to turn a profit unless they perform like Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2 did, and those two movies had way more goodwill going for them than these three (if anything Thunderbolts* seems to have the best shot). I also don't think a third Tron movie is going to hit any more than the first two, and Elio is a big question mark at this point.

 

[Miss Rori]

There we go, I knew it wouldn't take long before someone came in and started to take digs at Wish again. Guess that is all that can be done since 2024 will be a success for Disney.

Well, if a film like Wild Robot (which is adapted from a book series, but not a massively popular one) can manage in a non-holiday weekend more than the Disney centennial film could over Thanksgiving, I think there's at least lessons to be learned there for the Disney marketing team!

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, if a film like Wild Robot (which is adapted from a book series, but not a massively popular one) can manage in a non-holiday weekend more than the Disney centennial film could over Thanksgiving, I think there's at least lessons to be learned there for the Disney marketing team!

And at what point does one move on and stop referencing back to Wish? Do we go back and look at every Disney box office flop over and over and compare them to the latest release that did better? No, so why continue with Wish? I mean we could go back and look at Black Cauldron too which did even worse than Wish, but does it matter?

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't see anything but losses for most of the 2025 lineup (aside from Zootopia 2) out of the "tentpole" titles. The two MCU movies and Snow White look to be way too expensive to turn a profit unless they perform like Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2 did, and those two movies had way more goodwill going for them than these three (if anything Thunderbolts* seems to have the best shot). I also don't think a third Tron movie is going to hit any more than the first two, and Elio is a big question mark at this point.

Did I miss something or is Avatar 3 not coming out in 2025 anymore?

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't see anything but losses for most of the 2025 lineup (aside from Zootopia 2) out of the "tentpole" titles. The two MCU movies and Snow White look to be way too expensive to turn a profit unless they perform like Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2 did, and those two movies had way more goodwill going for them than these three (if anything Thunderbolts* seems to have the best shot). I also don't think a third Tron movie is going to hit any more than the first two, and Elio is a big question mark at this point.

On the MCU side -

I think Fantastic Four will likely do well, so will Thunderbolts. So the only question mark is CA: Brave New World. Though I have a feeling it might just do well considering Red Hulk. Supposedly budgets are more moderate for the other two, but we'll see when we get closer to release.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

2024 looks pretty safe from flops with only Moana 2 and Mufasa left to release, Mufasa being a little questionable but I think with IO2s massive success it will at the very least be profitable. 2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

I think the only failed film of Disney next year might be Snow White. I expect every film to do $500-$750M, with the exceptions that make $1B being Lilo & Stitch, The Fantastic 4, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire & Ash

 

[Phroobar]

I had a good time watching Wild Robot. It is sweet and has a lot of heart. I like the art direction. I'd say it is better than Migration.

 

[Miss Rori]

I did forget about Avatar: Fire & Ash and that will probably be a big deal, but the Lilo & Stitch remake sounds more like it'll perform along the lines of the Dumbo and Little Mermaid remakes than Beauty and the Beast's.

 

[Phroobar]

I think Lilo & Stitch will be enjoyable as long as they remember what Stitch looks like and don't go off model.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think Lilo & Stitch will be enjoyable as long as they remember what Stitch looks like and don't go off model.

We already know what Stitch will look like, and he looks good in my opinion, as we got a little teaser from D23 -

 

[Disney Irish]

I did forget about Avatar: Fire & Ash and that will probably be a big deal, but the Lilo & Stitch remake sounds more like it'll perform along the lines of the Dumbo and Little Mermaid remakes than Beauty and the Beast's.

So yeah 2025 is not actually looking as bad as you thought then, with Avatar 3, at least 2 of the 3 MCU movies, and a handful of others all likely doing well including L&S.

 

[Phroobar]

We already know what Stitch will look like, and he looks good in my opinion, as we got a little teaser from D23 -

He looks good. I hope the other aliens are just as good.

 

[Disney Irish]

He looks good. I hope the other aliens are just as good.

We’ll see, but given how Stitch looks I’m more inclined to think they’ll look good too.

Which is why I think this will actually do well.