Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

The Wild Robot so far is having a decent opening for a non-sequel animated feature with $35 million currently expected (and great audience response).

‘Wild Robot’ Powers To Third Best September Animated Debut With $35M; ‘Megalopolis’ Collapses With $4M & D+ CinemaScore; ‘Saturday Night’ Alive In Limited Release — Sunday Box Office Update

'The Wild Robot' is outperforming its box office projection with a $35M opening while Francis Ford Coppola's 'Megalopolis' is bombing with under $5M.

deadline.com

If that number holds out that would be a bigger 3-day take than the 5-day Thanksgiving weekend take for Wish!

There we go, I knew it wouldn't take long before someone came in and started to take digs at Wish again. Guess that is all that can be done since 2024 will be a success for Disney.

 

[Miss Rori]

2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

I don't see anything but losses for most of the 2025 lineup (aside from Zootopia 2) out of the "tentpole" titles. The two MCU movies and Snow White look to be way too expensive to turn a profit unless they perform like Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2 did, and those two movies had way more goodwill going for them than these three (if anything Thunderbolts* seems to have the best shot). I also don't think a third Tron movie is going to hit any more than the first two, and Elio is a big question mark at this point.

 

[Miss Rori]

There we go, I knew it wouldn't take long before someone came in and started to take digs at Wish again. Guess that is all that can be done since 2024 will be a success for Disney.

Well, if a film like Wild Robot (which is adapted from a book series, but not a massively popular one) can manage in a non-holiday weekend more than the Disney centennial film could over Thanksgiving, I think there's at least lessons to be learned there for the Disney marketing team!

 

[Disney Irish]

Well, if a film like Wild Robot (which is adapted from a book series, but not a massively popular one) can manage in a non-holiday weekend more than the Disney centennial film could over Thanksgiving, I think there's at least lessons to be learned there for the Disney marketing team!

And at what point does one move on and stop referencing back to Wish? Do we go back and look at every Disney box office flop over and over and compare them to the latest release that did better? No, so why continue with Wish? I mean we could go back and look at Black Cauldron too which did even worse than Wish, but does it matter?

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't see anything but losses for most of the 2025 lineup (aside from Zootopia 2) out of the "tentpole" titles. The two MCU movies and Snow White look to be way too expensive to turn a profit unless they perform like Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2 did, and those two movies had way more goodwill going for them than these three (if anything Thunderbolts* seems to have the best shot). I also don't think a third Tron movie is going to hit any more than the first two, and Elio is a big question mark at this point.

Did I miss something or is Avatar 3 not coming out in 2025 anymore?

 

[Disney Irish]

I don't see anything but losses for most of the 2025 lineup (aside from Zootopia 2) out of the "tentpole" titles. The two MCU movies and Snow White look to be way too expensive to turn a profit unless they perform like Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2 did, and those two movies had way more goodwill going for them than these three (if anything Thunderbolts* seems to have the best shot). I also don't think a third Tron movie is going to hit any more than the first two, and Elio is a big question mark at this point.

On the MCU side -

I think Fantastic Four will likely do well, so will Thunderbolts. So the only question mark is CA: Brave New World. Though I have a feeling it might just do well considering Red Hulk. Supposedly budgets are more moderate for the other two, but we'll see when we get closer to release.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

2024 looks pretty safe from flops with only Moana 2 and Mufasa left to release, Mufasa being a little questionable but I think with IO2s massive success it will at the very least be profitable. 2025 will be far more interesting with Brave New World, Snow White, Thunderbolts, another Tron movie, etc… Disney didn’t take many risks in 2024 and it’s paid off, 2025 is a far more interesting lineup but also a bit riskier with more movies across a much broader spectrum, it’ll be interesting to see if that results in massive profits or losses.

I think the only failed film of Disney next year might be Snow White. I expect every film to do $500-$750M, with the exceptions that make $1B being Lilo & Stitch, The Fantastic 4, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire & Ash

 

[Phroobar]

I had a good time watching Wild Robot. It is sweet and has a lot of heart. I like the art direction. I'd say it is better than Migration.

 

[Miss Rori]

I did forget about Avatar: Fire & Ash and that will probably be a big deal, but the Lilo & Stitch remake sounds more like it'll perform along the lines of the Dumbo and Little Mermaid remakes than Beauty and the Beast's.

 

[Phroobar]

I think Lilo & Stitch will be enjoyable as long as they remember what Stitch looks like and don't go off model.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think Lilo & Stitch will be enjoyable as long as they remember what Stitch looks like and don't go off model.

We already know what Stitch will look like, and he looks good in my opinion, as we got a little teaser from D23 -

 

[Disney Irish]

I did forget about Avatar: Fire & Ash and that will probably be a big deal, but the Lilo & Stitch remake sounds more like it'll perform along the lines of the Dumbo and Little Mermaid remakes than Beauty and the Beast's.

So yeah 2025 is not actually looking as bad as you thought then, with Avatar 3, at least 2 of the 3 MCU movies, and a handful of others all likely doing well including L&S.

 

[Phroobar]

We already know what Stitch will look like, and he looks good in my opinion, as we got a little teaser from D23 -

He looks good. I hope the other aliens are just as good.

 

[Disney Irish]

He looks good. I hope the other aliens are just as good.

We’ll see, but given how Stitch looks I’m more inclined to think they’ll look good too.

Which is why I think this will actually do well.

 

[Farerb]

Keep your fingers crossed for a flop if you'd like to see him back.

Moana 2 will be a success, but maybe with Mufasa? Hopefully. We'll definitely get him back with Snow White though, so at least there's that to look forward to

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

On the MCU side -

I think Fantastic Four will likely do well, so will Thunderbolts. So the only question mark is CA: Brave New World. Though I have a feeling it might just do well considering Red Hulk. Supposedly budgets are more moderate for the other two, but we'll see when we get closer to release.

I feel like the snowball affect may be a big factor next year also, 2023 was compounding failures, 2024 has been compounding successes, if Brave New World does well I think it sets up everything else to succeed also, if it struggles I think the rest of the year will be an uphill battle. This is one of the primary reasons I think they should have scrapped Snow White, I think it could sour people on Disney again and hurt the rest of the years lineup. The flip side is if Snow White somehow succeeds I think it’ll show that Disneys reputation is back and everything else should succeed on studio rep alone also.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

So, 30% drop for Deadpool & Wolverine this weekend.

Nice.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I think the only failed film of Disney next year might be Snow White. I expect every film to do $500-$750M, with the exceptions that make $1B being Lilo & Stitch, The Fantastic 4, Zootopia 2, and Avatar: Fire & Ash

I’m curios to see what the audience will be for the Marvel films, with the Kang story sidelined and no real direction it feels more like individual films instead of a connected series right now, I think brave new world will benefit from being tied to known character but I also expect some controversy since they’ve changed roles, Thunderbolts feels like it could be the next eternals and may be a big flop, I think F4 has the most potential and could be massive if the word of mouth is good, it’s a well known IP that’s been missing for a decade, definite billion + dollar potential, I also expect Avatar to be billion +… the rest of the lineup is harder to predict for me, I suspect Zootopia does well, Lilo breaks even, and Tron struggles but that’s total guesswork.

I think next year is going to have hits and misses but I’m excited it’s a more exciting lineup than this years was. I’ve debated dropping D+ this year because of a lack of new content, next year will be easier to justify keeping it with more titles, if nothing else next years lineup should keep people subscribed to D+.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I’m curios to see what the audience will be for the Marvel films, with the Kang story sidelined and no real direction it feels more like individual films instead of a connected series right now, I think brave new world will benefit from being tied to known character but I also expect some controversy since they’ve changed roles, Thunderbolts feels like it could be the next eternals and may be a big flop, I think F4 has the most potential and could be massive if the word of mouth is good, it’s a well known IP that’s been missing for a decade, definite billion + dollar potential, I also expect Avatar to be billion +… the rest of the lineup is harder to predict for me, I suspect Zootopia does well, Lilo breaks even, and Tron struggles but that’s total guesswork.

I think next year is going to have hits and misses but I’m excited it’s a more exciting lineup than this years was. I’ve debated dropping D+ this year because of a lack of new content, next year will be easier to justify keeping it with more titles, if nothing else next years lineup should keep people subscribed to D+.

To be fair, these three films will at least set the stage for building up whoever the new team (or teams) of Avengers are while also building up Doom, even if he’s in the very last end credits scene of The Fantastic 4: First Steps. And unlike Eternals, at least Thunderbolts isn’t being downvoted for anything in it people would say is woke.

Also, the only reason I argue Lilo and Stitch does a billion is because of the merch numbers Stitch sells and because of how big in views his live-action design got on Instagram and TikTok.

And the one reason I’m batting hard for Pixar’s Elio doing $600M+ is because of the fact that it has two accomplished directors on it (Domee Shi and Adrian Molina) who did two well-received Pixar classics and they could help make Elio as strongly received as Coco or Inside Out or Wall-E to make it the first undisputed original hit at the box office for Pixar since Coco.

 

[DKampy]

Well, if a film like Wild Robot (which is adapted from a book series, but not a massively popular one) can manage in a non-holiday weekend more than the Disney centennial film could over Thanksgiving, I think there's at least lessons to be learned there for the Disney marketing team!

Did you also noticed the great reviews from both critics and audiences… this has great word of mouth… I have even seen some Academy Awards best picture nomination talk…This could be a sleeper hit… I don’t get the Wish comparisons at all

I am curious how Joker will do next week… I could see it going either way

As far as Thunderbolts…it seems most enjoy the trailer… which is a good first step to success