Farerb
Well-Known Member
Moana 2 will be a success, but maybe with Mufasa? Hopefully. We'll definitely get him back with Snow White though, so at least there's that to look forward to
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs
- Thread starter Disney Analyst
- Start date
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I feel like the snowball affect may be a big factor next year also, 2023 was compounding failures, 2024 has been compounding successes, if Brave New World does well I think it sets up everything else to succeed also, if it struggles I think the rest of the year will be an uphill battle. This is one of the primary reasons I think they should have scrapped Snow White, I think it could sour people on Disney again and hurt the rest of the years lineup. The flip side is if Snow White somehow succeeds I think it’ll show that Disneys reputation is back and everything else should succeed on studio rep alone also.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
So, 30% drop for Deadpool & Wolverine this weekend.
Nice.
Nice.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I’m curios to see what the audience will be for the Marvel films, with the Kang story sidelined and no real direction it feels more like individual films instead of a connected series right now, I think brave new world will benefit from being tied to known character but I also expect some controversy since they’ve changed roles, Thunderbolts feels like it could be the next eternals and may be a big flop, I think F4 has the most potential and could be massive if the word of mouth is good, it’s a well known IP that’s been missing for a decade, definite billion + dollar potential, I also expect Avatar to be billion +… the rest of the lineup is harder to predict for me, I suspect Zootopia does well, Lilo breaks even, and Tron struggles but that’s total guesswork.
I think next year is going to have hits and misses but I’m excited it’s a more exciting lineup than this years was. I’ve debated dropping D+ this year because of a lack of new content, next year will be easier to justify keeping it with more titles, if nothing else next years lineup should keep people subscribed to D+.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
To be fair, these three films will at least set the stage for building up whoever the new team (or teams) of Avengers are while also building up Doom, even if he’s in the very last end credits scene of The Fantastic 4: First Steps. And unlike Eternals, at least Thunderbolts isn’t being downvoted for anything in it people would say is woke.
Also, the only reason I argue Lilo and Stitch does a billion is because of the merch numbers Stitch sells and because of how big in views his live-action design got on Instagram and TikTok.
And the one reason I’m batting hard for Pixar’s Elio doing $600M+ is because of the fact that it has two accomplished directors on it (Domee Shi and Adrian Molina) who did two well-received Pixar classics and they could help make Elio as strongly received as Coco or Inside Out or Wall-E to make it the first undisputed original hit at the box office for Pixar since Coco.
Did you also noticed the great reviews from both critics and audiences… this has great word of mouth… I have even seen some Academy Awards best picture nomination talk…This could be a sleeper hit… I don’t get the Wish comparisons at all
I am curious how Joker will do next week… I could see it going either way
As far as Thunderbolts…it seems most enjoy the trailer… which is a good first step to success
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Interesting take, but I really don’t think one movie has an effect on another from the same studio, especially since not all movies have the same audience crossover. If that was the case then many studios would have folded a long time ago. I think it just feels that way for Disney with 2023 since we follow it so closely.
I guess what I meant was how Wish doing as badly as it did reflects badly on WDFAS and (perhaps more so) Disney corporate right now. I'm not surprised The Wild Robot is getting a good reception - it looks lovely from the trailers and Dreamworks clearly worked hard to sell it. And with the next month thin on the ground for family pictures it's well-positioned to hang on the way Elemental did last year. But those movies are ones that lots of people actually liked. It's weird Disney failed to at least make a worthwhile movie for their centennial, given they clearly were expecting people to show up and love it with the marketing and merchandising push they gave it. (Of course they did the same thing with Pocahontas.)
BoxOfficePro has steadily been downgrading its estimates for the first weekend on the basis of lousy presales and the blah reception it got at the Venice Film Festival. Not to mention that it feels like there's been very little of a marketing push for it. I think it'll be the #1 movie by default because it's been a full month since Beetlejuice Beetlejuice debuted (and it was hard not to notice that movie was arriving with all the commercial tie-ins alone!), and since then there haven't been any "big" studio movies besides the two animated features. The rest of October is pretty much just horror titles; November's first three weekends look straight-up dead (until the dual launches of Gladiator II and Wicked Part One) aside from some seasonal-skewing titles like Red One and The Best Christmas Pageant Ever. If Joker doesn't hit, it's going to look pretty bare in theaters for a while.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
If Joker 2 bombs, it’s a big warning sign for Superman, especially after 5 non-streaming, Post-pandemic, DC films that either underperformed, disappointed, bombed, or flopped at the box office.
And it’s also a sign the shroud of Snyder’s DC universe has fallen and will continue to haunt DC til the end of time, unless it’s The Batman.
And it’s also a sign the shroud of Snyder’s DC universe has fallen and will continue to haunt DC til the end of time, unless it’s The Batman.
I still don’t see the comparisons… just to point out Disney bad…. Why not compare it to Inside out 2…. As they are both family films…. It would be just as random
The original Joker got the same 60 ish percent on rotten tomatoes after premiering at a festival( Don’t remember which one could have been Venice) Until eventually reaching the lukewarm 69%… which is what makes me uncertain about it’s potential
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
All he's doing is voicing Stitch
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I do think some of this looks good in the rear view mirror. Apes and Aliens felt much more risky last year.
Inside Out 2 I think every sane person under-predicted by at least half. Moana 2 now feels a lot safer after seeing the public is not unwilling to turn out in droves for Disney animated films. I still think Mufasa will be a miss (Alice through the looking glass), not that it matters too much for them after the string of hits this year.
But I agree, 2025 is more exciting. Simply because there is way more product.
I too feel so bad at predicting Disney Box Office these days. Still, I don't think it's possible for us to have a 2023 repeat next year. Avatar is a near guaranteed high note. I feel very strongly about Zootopia 2 (I think its International, particularly Asian audience uptake is under-valued) and Fantastic 4, unless they totally mess it up.
Mufasa will be a Rorschach test for gauging the prevalence of those perpetually angry at Disney.
Their anger about live-action remakes is that it's either too close a remake ("It's just the same story beat for beat!!!") or that it changes the story too much ("They changed the story and thereby ruined it!!!!"). Well, Mufasa isn't a remake.
The other 'critique' of the live-action remake was that the facial expressions were too expressionless. In trying to be realistic, Disney didn't get the 'realistic' animals to facially emote like humans do. But, for Mufasa, they're making the characters more expressive. Although, that might lead to howls of "animals don't emote like that!!!" (Sorta forgetting that it's animation.)
They'll most likely go for "ugh! it's a sequel!" as if sequels are inherently bad. Tell that to:
[take note: this is how one does a proper prebuttal]
Their anger about live-action remakes is that it's either too close a remake ("It's just the same story beat for beat!!!") or that it changes the story too much ("They changed the story and thereby ruined it!!!!"). Well, Mufasa isn't a remake.
The other 'critique' of the live-action remake was that the facial expressions were too expressionless. In trying to be realistic, Disney didn't get the 'realistic' animals to facially emote like humans do. But, for Mufasa, they're making the characters more expressive. Although, that might lead to howls of "animals don't emote like that!!!" (Sorta forgetting that it's animation.)
They'll most likely go for "ugh! it's a sequel!" as if sequels are inherently bad. Tell that to:
- The Godfather Part II (1974)
- X-Men: First Class (2011)
- Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom (1984)
- Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (2016)
- The Good, The Bad and The Ugly (1966)
- Bumblebee (2018)
- The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (2012)
- Prey (2022)
- every movie set in the past, which is a prequel of every movie set at a later date
[take note: this is how one does a proper prebuttal]
.
erasure fan1
Well-Known Member
I'm not so sure. Lion king did 1.6bil. Sure it's not anyone's favourite live action remake but I can see this doing well enough. I doubt it hits the firsts high. But The ip is powerful enough to have people give it a chance since, as you say, it's not a remake. I've said it before, they should have just skipped lion king and just did this instead.
I'm sure all that will be brought up. But what's the actual issue? There's no need for them for a lot of people. They sell on their history of the original and a huge percentage of people leave and go, eh, the original was better, what was the point? Disney knows this so they keep making them. It's always going to be a catch 22. Stray to far from the original and people will be mad, keep it too similar, what's the point. So I personally expect that everyone will complain about all the usual things, they'll still make money, therefore Disney keeps pushing forward. Unless the next few bomb lightyear/wish hard, pixar films are coming.
Oh I tell it to that turd of a film series every chance I get.
In all seriousness, I don't think many have a problem with sequels. It's the over reliance on them that people are a bit fed up with, cough*toystory5*cough
Personally, if the live action remake endeavor was telling storys within the ips universe, sequel/prequel/ all new characters and story...they would be much more accepted. If they had done that, I know I'd be up for it.
The other thing is they should have limited actual remakes to something they could actually make better than the original. Beware, broken record time. Something like the black cauldron is perfect to try and remake. There's not many who hold that film as a classic Disney production. So you then don't have the weight of something like a mermaid, Aladdin, snow White, lion king...to compare to.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Hey, at least Toy Story 5 has a genius and contemporary idea that might make it work.I'm not so sure. Lion king did 1.6bil. Sure it's not anyone's favourite live action remake but I can see this doing well enough. I doubt it hits the firsts high. But The ip is powerful enough to have people give it a chance since, as you say, it's not a remake. I've said it before, they should have just skipped lion king and just did this instead.
I'm sure all that will be brought up. But what's the actual issue? There's no need for them for a lot of people. They sell on their history of the original and a huge percentage of people leave and go, eh, the original was better, what was the point? Disney knows this so they keep making them. It's always going to be a catch 22. Stray to far from the original and people will be mad, keep it too similar, what's the point. So I personally expect that everyone will complain about all the usual things, they'll still make money, therefore Disney keeps pushing forward. Unless the next few bomb lightyear/wish hard, pixar films are coming.
Oh I tell it to that turd of a film series every chance I get.
In all seriousness, I don't think many have a problem with sequels. It's the over reliance on them that people are a bit fed up with, cough*toystory5*cough
Personally, if the live action remake endeavor was telling storys within the ips universe, sequel/prequel/ all new characters and story...they would be much more accepted. If they had done that, I know I'd be up for it.
The other thing is they should have limited actual remakes to something they could actually make better than the original. Beware, broken record time. Something like the black cauldron is perfect to try and remake. There's not many who hold that film as a classic Disney production. So you then don't have the weight of something like a mermaid, Aladdin, snow White, lion king...to compare to.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
First weekend in October is upon us and while Joker 2 is opening he doesn't appear to be laughing quite yet. Joker 2 doing half of what the original did for its Thursday night previews, and hoping for a $50M weekend which seems unlikely.
Thursday previews -
Romulus is down to limited theaters. DP&W may lose some more theaters this weekend, but looking pretty slim to bring in much more. So it may not surpass Barbie, but will be close.
Thursday previews -
Romulus is down to limited theaters. DP&W may lose some more theaters this weekend, but looking pretty slim to bring in much more. So it may not surpass Barbie, but will be close.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
I don’t know. Deadpool & Wolverine is still holding strong and only decreasing theaters by 20% or less, plus with the 4-day Columbus Day Weeekend next weekend, it may pass Barbie when all is said and done.
Patience and time is key.
Hey, look look. See? It only loses 19% of screens this weekend: https://www.the-numbers.com/news/257750830-Theater-counts-Joker-launches-in-4-102-theaters
Last edited:
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Not sure why you're so invested in it surpassing Barbie, but as I said it'll be close. It still has to earn $4M to surpass Barbie. Not saying its impossible, but its going to be real close. I suspect it'll bring in half of what it did last weekend, which would be a little over $1M, for this weekend.