Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

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DKampy

Well-Known Member
erasure fan1 said:
I think the problem is the expectation of a first movie like this. It's not like the fall guy was some uber popular show. Sure it had it's moments in the 80s but it's not one of those culturally iconic shows. The film has a modest budget and the marketing doesn't seem out of whack. So 375mil would be the aprox break even point. That's very doable especially with good word of mouth. It's done 67mil as of the last reported numbers. Now I haven't seen it yet, so I'm not sure if it has franchise aspersions. But if it can break even, and the reviews are strong, you're in good shape and your sequels should do bigger numbers now that people know about the franchise. Something like toy story did 300mil or so. Then part 2 about 500mil and then 3 onebillion. That's the playbook that they should be looking at. But it's all predicated on a responsible budget. If toy story was 150mil to make, uh oh. But it was 30mil so it was fine.
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I agree with most of this… and it was part of my thinking with my post…. I was surprised it was projected at 40 million….which for all intents and purposes it is basically an original film… I mean Apes was only projected at 10 million more and that is a long standing franchise

I do think The Fall Guy could have a geat hold this weekend… it is getting great reviews… it is attracting an older audience who have shown they don’t always go opening weekend… plus I have a feeling this will be more of a Mothers Day movie than Apes… I know my mom is going to see The Fall Guy Sunday

As someone who saw The Fall Guy it is stand alone…however you could do more also if they wanted to… I certainly would be open for more… as it was great fun… Ryan Gosling also did mention in an interview that if it does well we could do 4 or 5 more
 
LittleBuford

LittleBuford

Well-Known Member
Vegas Disney Fan said:
Finally saw Barbie tonight and loved how clever and funny it was, Disney hasn’t put out anything that good in several years.

Just goes to show you can include an underlying social message and still be funny and successful as long as the story is good.
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Thank you for at least acknowledging that it has a social message. Several Barbie fans in this forum have repeatedly denied that glaringly obvious fact because it doesn’t accord with claims they make about Disney.
 
TP2000

TP2000

Well-Known Member
BuddyThomas said:
It ran for 5 seasons over 6 years. I’m sure some people remember it, but it doesn’t even matter because aside from the title, the lead character’s name and that it’s about a stunt man, it has virtually nothing at all to do with the tv series.
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Did the movie have the theme song? I'm still humming it and half-singing it, but luckily I remembered a few more lyrics.

Hey! Hey!

Vegas Disney Fan said:
Finally saw Barbie tonight and loved how clever and funny it was, Disney hasn’t put out anything that good in several years.

Just goes to show you can include an underlying social message and still be funny and successful as long as the story is good.
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Wasn't it great?!? One of the best movies I've seen in years.

My sister and I had a moment sitting next to each other in the theater during the monologue late in the film about all that Mom's do for their kids, thinking about our Mom. Truly special, and so true! 🥲

LittleBuford said:
Thank you for at least acknowledging that it has a social message. Several Barbie fans in this forum have repeatedly denied that glaringly obvious fact because it doesn’t accord with claims they make about Disney.
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Huh? The message in Barbie is that men and women need each other to exist equally, and that everyone should lighten up and laugh a little. And to stop wearing all black and spouting pre-approved slogans in scorn. It was a beautiful movie! 😍
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
erasure fan1 said:
The film has a modest budget and the marketing doesn't seem out of whack. So 375mil would be the aprox break even point. That's very doable especially with good word of mouth. It's done 67mil as of the last reported numbers.
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That’s a very strong multiple it requires though. 3.5x is more in line with CinemaScore, its budget, etc.

It can do it, 5.5X is possible, but that’s a big task. If it does they’ll for sure green light a sequel. That would be excellent legs! 🦵
 
Wendy Pleakley

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
BrianLo said:
That’s a very strong multiple it requires though. 3.5x is more in line with CinemaScore, its budget, etc.

It can do it, 5.5X is possible, but that’s a big task. If it does they’ll for sure green light a sequel. That would be excellent legs! 🦵
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If a movie has really strong word of mouth there are cases where a modest hit can justify a sequel based on popularity.

The first Austin Powers grossed $50 million but people loved it and no doubt had strong home video uptake. The sequel quadrupled the gross of the original.

It did have the benefit of being low cost though, and the first one was profitable.

I suspect studios will be less risk averse in today's climate but if Fall Guy ekes out a small profit AND is sufficiently liked there's still a chance it's a viable franchise.
 
BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
Wendy Pleakley said:
If a movie has really strong word of mouth there are cases where a modest hit can justify a sequel based on popularity.

The first Austin Powers grossed $50 million but people loved it and no doubt had strong home video uptake. The sequel quadrupled the gross of the original.

It did have the benefit of being low cost though, and the first one was profitable.

I suspect studios will be less risk averse in today's climate but if Fall Guy ekes out a small profit AND is sufficiently liked there's still a chance it's a viable franchise.
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Totally. The historical average for A+ cinema scores is 5.5X, in fact. But this one only has an A-, so would to bad well above its word of mouth expectancy.
 
Disney Irish

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Ohhh this will fix it…

www.foxbusiness.com

Disney's Iger to have hand in Marvel's makeover

Disney CEO Bob Iger indicated Tuesday he has been involved in honing Marvel and other Disney studio output.
www.foxbusiness.com www.foxbusiness.com
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Clickbate article, that is not exactly what he said. He isn't involve in the creative aspects of Marvel. Rather that he is discussing with Feige and the Marvel Team about slowing down output, refocus on quality rather than quantity. Which isn't new, he said the same thing last year.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disney Irish said:
Clickbate article, that is not exactly what he said. He isn't involve in the creative aspects of Marvel. Rather that he is discussing with Feige and the Marvel Team about slowing down output, refocus on quality rather than quantity. Which isn't new, he said the same thing last year.
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Yeah…feel like we’ve heard this before

How’d it work the last time?
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Disney Irish said:
They haven’t had a release since Iger last discussed this, Deadpool will be the first release.
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Not marvel, Sunny Jim

The last time he did this “calming influence” crap it still has that studio in shambles…
And nobody is buying - checks ticker - his schtick anymore.

This guy is so past his prime. He’ll be the last to know 😎
 

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