Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Minnesota disney fan]

Apparently the website Box Office Pro that used to do great weekend predictions no longer does that. But a few sources from the Google are claiming a $50-ish Million opening weekend for this Apes movie.

The budget is being reported as a relatively modest $120 Million, so it will need about $360 Million globally to break even.

I hope it's a hit with the kids, because I'd love to see lots of apes and gorillas at my front door this Halloween!

Last Halloween the majority of the kids dressed up as Mario!!! No disney characters were seen by us. There were also ghosts and ghouls. I hope that apes don't show up at my door - I have a big fear of apes, monkeys, etc.

 

[BuddyThomas]

Wouldn't you just love to know what they spend all that money on? Like to see an itemized list for what the $200 Million for Wish actually went to?

How much for daily catering? How much for chauffer driven Cadillac Escalades to the Burbank campus for top-line talent? How much for flowers and chocolates and wine in the green rooms on taping days? How much went to needless white-collar overhead? What about chair massages? You can't have a Hollywood studio without chair massages on tap.

Wish: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic B.O. Take $39, Overseas B.O. Take $70 = $191 Million Loss

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You’ve been going on about this since at least November. I believe your point has been made. Time to give it a rest?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You’ve been going on about this since at least November. I believe your point has been made. Time to give it a rest?

The minute people stop trying to “reframe”it in any other way than a complete disaster.

Then we all can move on

 

[brideck]

Weekend showings have been posted in my market, and it looks like Apes is being given a pretty hefty amount for its opening, so we'll see if it can crack that $50m figure.

Recent large openings, # of screenings at local AMCs in ()
Kung Fu Panda 4 (87) - $58m
Godzilla x Kong (85) - $80m
Apes (75) - ??
Civil War (57) - $25.5m
The Fall Guy (55) - $27.7m

That MonsterVerse opening is such an anomaly. If people are coming out for CG fests, maybe that'll spill over into Apes, too? Who knows anymore.

 

[Disney Analyst]

What the Hell Do People Want Out of Movies?

‘The Fall Guy’ had all the makings of a massive summer blockbuster. So what went wrong? And why don’t audiences actually go to the sorts of movies they claim they want?

t.co

Some interesting discussion happening. Matching what a few of us have been saying and thinking.

 

[TP2000]

What the Hell Do People Want Out of Movies?

‘The Fall Guy’ had all the makings of a massive summer blockbuster. So what went wrong? And why don’t audiences actually go to the sorts of movies they claim they want?

t.co

Some interesting discussion happening. Matching what a few of us have been saying and thinking.

At this point, I have to think the double digit inflation of the last few years for food, energy, gasoline, household essentials, rent, etc. must be a factor in people pulling back on movie tickets. And theme park visits.

Many people only have so much money for luxuries each month.

If you are now spending a lot more money on eggs and ground beef and gas and electricity as you were a few years ago, should you really be going to the movies once per month? Probably not.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

What the Hell Do People Want Out of Movies?

‘The Fall Guy’ had all the makings of a massive summer blockbuster. So what went wrong? And why don’t audiences actually go to the sorts of movies they claim they want?

t.co

Some interesting discussion happening. Matching what a few of us have been saying and thinking.

Yep.

Everyone's an armchair quarterback. Make better movies. Less sequels. More sequels. Less superheroes.

It's fine to discuss and speculate on what will or will not work, but no one can really say with any certainty what the winning formula is.

If it were easy, there wouldn't be so many movies that bomb or succeed unexpectedly.

Fall Guy feels like it should be way more popular, so who the heck knows?

 

[Casper Gutman]

Yep.

Everyone's an armchair quarterback. Make better movies. Less sequels. More sequels. Less superheroes.

It's fine to discuss and speculate on what will or will not work, but no one can really say with any certainty what the winning formula is.

If it were easy, there wouldn't be so many movies that bomb or succeed unexpectedly.

Fall Guy feels like it should be way more popular, so who the heck knows?

And compounding this are releases like Godzilla x Kong, which was AWFUL... yet performed much better then the far superior earlier entries in the same IP. Franchise fatigue?

Disney's Apes movie is getting great reviews... so that's probably awful for its box office. Or something. Who knows.

 

[BrianLo]

I like that Fall Guys exists so we can actually have a rational conversation about the weird state of the box office for once. Without the pomp and circumstance of Disney complaints.

I have literally no idea about Apes. I wouldn’t have said it would do well either just due to the friable nature, but it seems like a crap shoot.

Deadpool and Despicable Me 4 are the only things I have confidence in. I would say Moana 2,/Inside Out 2, but it’s hard to say how good they will be. DM4 is immune to its quality.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I like that Fall Guys exists so we can actually have a rational conversation about the weird state of the box office for once. Without the pomp and circumstance of Disney complaints.

I have literally no idea about Apes. I wouldn’t have said it would do well either just due to the friable nature, but it seems like a crap shoot.

Even cheap horror is failing in 2024. The box office is just mad.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

And compounding this are releases like Godzilla x Kong, which was AWFUL... yet performed much better then the far superior earlier entries in the same IP. Franchise fatigue?

Disney's Apes movie is getting great reviews... so that's probably awful for its box office. Or something. Who knows.

I would not have predicted Apes doing particularly well given I found the previous two to be pretty forgettable. The first one was interesting as an origin story.

 

[DKampy]

What the Hell Do People Want Out of Movies?

‘The Fall Guy’ had all the makings of a massive summer blockbuster. So what went wrong? And why don’t audiences actually go to the sorts of movies they claim they want?

t.co

Some interesting discussion happening. Matching what a few of us have been saying and thinking.

As someone who still go to the theater weekly and I have yet to see anyone’s home theater systems to match the theaters near me… I was hoping The Fall Guy would match the 40 million projections… but the more I think about it that seems rather overzealous… the last 15 years… it’s tough to come up with a non franchise film that even made that much opening weekend… the last I can come up with was the first Avatar movie(John Wick only made 14 million) The Fall Guy is based on a tv show(really in name only)but it is a show almost no one is passionate about…very few of the movie going public even knows it exists… it might as well be original… without that passionate IP fan base… most people wait to hear from word of mouth rather they should see a film… and then weigh should I see it in a theater or wait for streaming… which Is unfortunate because I thought The Fall Guy was a great time in the theater

One plus is studios are not going to give up on theaters anytime soon… as they now have the data… a film that was in theaters first will do better on their streaming service

 

[J4546]

I just cancelled my AMC A plus membership cause there just arent that many movies I wanna go through the hassle of seeing in theaters anymore, I find myself just waiting for them to come to streaming

 

[BuddyThomas]

Yep.

Everyone's an armchair quarterback. Make better movies. Less sequels. More sequels. Less superheroes.

It's fine to discuss and speculate on what will or will not work, but no one can really say with any certainty what the winning formula is.

If it were easy, there wouldn't be so many movies that bomb or succeed unexpectedly.

Fall Guy feels like it should be way more popular, so who the heck knows?

All I know is anybody holding back on going to see The Fall Guy is missing out on a whole lot of fun.

 

[Disney Analyst]

I like that Fall Guys exists so we can actually have a rational conversation about the weird state of the box office for once. Without the pomp and circumstance of Disney complaints.

I have literally no idea about Apes. I wouldn’t have said it would do well either just due to the friable nature, but it seems like a crap shoot.

Deadpool and Despicable Me 4 are the only things I have confidence in. I would say Moana 2,/Inside Out 2, but it’s hard to say how good they will be. DM4 is immune to its quality.

That is why I wanted to share this, as I hope it finally nails it home for some on here that this is not a Disney problem. Not to say Disney hasn't screwed up on some films.

But every Studio is struggling in the post Covid world. Each having some insane hits, and many many financial flops.

 

[erasure fan1]

I was hoping The Fall Guy would match the 40 million projections… but the more I think about it that seems rather overzealous… the last 15 years… it’s tough to come up with a non franchise film that even made that much opening weekend… the last I can come up with was the first Avatar movie

I think the problem is the expectation of a first movie like this. It's not like the fall guy was some uber popular show. Sure it had it's moments in the 80s but it's not one of those culturally iconic shows. The film has a modest budget and the marketing doesn't seem out of whack. So 375mil would be the aprox break even point. That's very doable especially with good word of mouth. It's done 67mil as of the last reported numbers. Now I haven't seen it yet, so I'm not sure if it has franchise aspersions. But if it can break even, and the reviews are strong, you're in good shape and your sequels should do bigger numbers now that people know about the franchise. Something like toy story did 300mil or so. Then part 2 about 500mil and then 3 onebillion. That's the playbook that they should be looking at. But it's all predicated on a responsible budget. If toy story was 150mil to make, uh oh. But it was 30mil so it was fine.

 

[BuddyThomas]

First round of reviews are in for Planet of the Apes on Rotten Tomatoes: 85% positive.

 

[TP2000]

I think the problem is the expectation of a first movie like this. It's not like the fall guy was some uber popular show. Sure it had it's moments in the 80s but it's not one of those culturally iconic shows.

I had no idea this movie was a throwback to that show until this thread just now. I got several ads for it on YouTube the past few weeks, but I never got a sense it was remotely connected to the old TV show. Does anyone under 50 even remember that show?

I remember it, but the only thing I remember about it was the catchy theme song. Which I now will be humming for the rest of the day unfortunately...

"I've been linked to a girl named Farrah, gone fast with a girl named Bo. Cause I'm the unknown stuntman that makes Eastwood look so fine! something something about a bale of hay. Hey! Hey!"

 

[BuddyThomas]

I had no idea this movie was a throwback to that show until this thread just now. I got several ads for it on YouTube the past few weeks, but I never got a sense it was remotely connected to the old TV show. Does anyone under 50 even remember that show?

I remember it, but the only thing I remember about it was the catchy theme song. Which I now will be humming for the rest of the day unfortunately...

"I've been linked to a girl named Farrah, gone fast with a girl named Bo. Cause I'm the unknown stuntman that makes Eastwood look so fine! something something about a bale of hay. Hey! Hey!"

It ran for 5 seasons over 6 years. I’m sure some people remember it, but it doesn’t even matter because aside from the title, the lead character’s name and that it’s about a stunt man, it has virtually nothing at all to do with the tv series.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

That is why I wanted to share this, as I hope it finally nails it home for some on here that this is not a Disney problem. Not to say Disney hasn't screwed up on some films.

But every Studio is struggling in the post Covid world. Each having some insane hits, and many many financial flops.

Yeah, but what about Wish?