Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

I assumed it would just be the first few episodes of the show edited into a movie.

Same as the Clone Wars animated movie, which isn't exactly regarded as a classic.

Do we have any data anywhere on how long the series was? It would be dubious if they gave us half the story and followed up with Moana 3 next year.

Though… I mean, perhaps pure genius on Bob’s part. I can’t imagine it loses the company more money than dumping their star into D+ and technically the quality is going to be the same either way.

I hear the Clones Wars thing, but that also was the C team finding their feet. This at least was always WDAS and probably incredibly overseen product. I have no reason to believe the series itself was or is bad, just that its transition to film will be interesting. On the positive side some anime has pulled this off swimmingly more recently.

 

[brideck]

The actress who played Cruella was hilariously fabulous, in particular.

Welcome to the 21st century, TP!

That's Emma Stone -- Oscar winner, star of Poor Things.

 

[Miss Rori]

I hear the Clones Wars thing, but that also was the C team finding their feet. This at least was always WDAS and probably incredibly overseen product. I have no reason to believe the series itself was or is bad, just that its transition to film will be interesting. On the positive side some anime has pulled this off swimmingly more recently.

According to Wikipedia, the pre-production and storyboarding was handled in Burbank but the actual production after that was at the Vancouver studio (which handled Iwaju recently) - it's a B-team project. Even if it was "incredibly overseen", well, one could say the same about Wish...

 

[DKampy]

I finally saw Challengers… I thought it was great…One of my favorite films of 2024 thus far… I’ve seen some people complain about all the time jumping… I am not to sure what was so confusing… it seemed pretty straight forward to me… the film took place during the one match while showing the events that led to that… I wonder if it held onto it’s original November date if it would of had some Oscar discussions … it would of probably been among my top 10 of last year

My only issue is I hope I didn’t mess up… my Wife is a huge Amy Winehouse and really wants to see the Back to Black film… she usually follows my lead about what to watch… so I feel if there is something that really interests her we should go… we planned on our anniversary next week as we also wanted to see Challengers so that was my priority since I did not know how much longer it would be playing at our local theater… well with Back to Black not finding an audience… who knows if it will make a 2nd weekend here

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Really? AMC, Regal, Cinepolis, Epic, CMX, all the chains in Florida do service fees if you order tickets in advance without visiting the box office kiosks on site.

Not if you’re an AMC Stubz member.

Maybe but it’s a bad example as it’s not a property people care about.

It sure is.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Finally got to see Apes after traveling to WDW and Nashville since it opened.

I dug it. That was a safe bet, as I’ve been watching these since the 70’s. Loved all the little nods, aware probably most people in the theater didn’t catch them.

Well done, setting sequels up nicely. This is still all happening before the original series.

 

[brideck]

My only issue is I hope I didn’t mess up… my Wife is a huge Amy Winehouse and really wants to see the Back to Black film… she usually follows my lead about what to watch… so I feel if there is something that really interests her we should go… we planned on our anniversary next week as we also wanted to see Challengers so that was my priority since I did not know how much longer it would be playing at our local theater… well with Back to Black not finding an audience… who knows if it will make a 2nd weekend here

I think you'll be okay. Focus has been struggling lately with their releases and everything has held screen counts for at least two weeks, e.g. Lisa Frankenstein, Drive-Away Dolls, etc.

 

[TP2000]

I haven't been paying that close attention, but when did we move away from the 2.5X rule to 3X? I think that's causing you to over-estimate loses. Now that the 2024 financials are out, content loses were not in line with your last year estimates, probably because of that.

That 2.5x was never my thing. The formula I have used is to take the production budget, add on half of that for global marketing, and then give it a 60% cut of domestic box office plus a 40% cut of overseas box office.

With a production budget of $160 Million, and an assumed global marketing budget of $80 Million, Apes 9 would need roughly $480 Million globally to break even.

Guardians 3 will be a good comp if that budget is accurate. Its break even ended up around 600 million (2.5X would have predicted 625).

I very much personally think 750+ million is their goal though. Particularly in light of how Logan and other Deadpool movies performed.

View attachment 786481

Cripes. They spent $250 Million on the production budget, and then another $300 Million on marketing and distribution costs? No wonder Disney is losing money hand over fist. Especially when it's just one money losing Disney division (Disney+) in 2023 paying another 2023 money losing Disney division (Marvel Studios) for the privilege of being in the same company.

I would assume with Deadpool 3 they are trying to get more than what Guardians 3 made at the box office. If Deadpool 3 only makes $845 Million at the global box office, it will only make about $50 Million profit from the box office. Before they start the internal accounting game of different divisions of Disney paying each other for their money-losing product.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Willmark]

If I read this right Apes had a good opening weekend but has tapered off?

Admittedly it’s not a franchise I follow closely but did like the original series back in the day when I was a kid.

 

[DKampy]

If I read this right Apes had a good opening weekend but has tapered off?

Admittedly it’s not a franchise I follow closely but did like the original series back in the day when I was a kid.

A 55% decline is not bad for a blockbuster such as Apes in its 2nd weekend…most big summer blockbusters tend to drop above 60%…. Sure it could of been better to give us a clear sign… but it is in that middle ground where it does not really give us a clear picture yet… it’s still to early to say how successful Apes is… although next week Could pose a challenge as Furiosa should be direct competition

 

[TP2000]

If I read this right Apes had a good opening weekend but has tapered off?

Admittedly it’s not a franchise I follow closely but did like the original series back in the day when I was a kid.

Yes, that's about right. Industry sources, and an obvious look at the data, show that Apes 9 has "poor legs" in industryspeak. It had a modestly strong opening weekend of $56 Million, but then stalled.

“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” cost $160 million to produce, so it needs to keep swinging at the box office to justify its price tag. -Variety, May 19th

Box Office: ‘Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes’ Hits $237 Million Globally, ‘IF’ Nears $60 Million

"Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes" is the No. 1 movie at the international box office and stands as the fourth-biggest movie of the year.

variety.com

Here's where it stands as of Sunday, May 19th. It has "poor legs".

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Here's one we can put into the history books this week... The First Omen from Disney's 20th Century Studios. It appears to have been pulled from its remaining 150 theaters as of today.

Here's where The First Omen ended its run at the box office, with a reported $30 Million production budget and an assumed shoestring global marketing budget of $15 Million.

The First Omen: $30 Production, $15 Marketing, $12 Domestic, $13 Overseas = $20 Million Loss

Movie Comparison: The First Omen (2024)

Domestic box office comparison between The First Omen (2024)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[brideck]

Yes, that's about right. Industry sources, and an obvious look at the data, show that Apes 9 has "poor legs" in industryspeak. It had a modestly strong opening weekend of $56 Million, but then stalled.

I wonder how different that legs funnel will look next year once the (now aberrant) 2019 numbers are off the books. Not at all arguing that it's got great legs, just that it might actually be closer to average in the post-pandemic, I'll just wait at home market.

 

[TP2000]

I wonder how different that legs funnel will look next year once the (now aberrant) 2019 numbers are off the books. Not at all arguing that it's got great legs, just that it might actually be closer to average in the post-pandemic, I'll just wait at home market.

That's a valid point as the graph is "based on movies from the past 5 years".

But I also wonder how the horribly wonky box office years of 2020-21 factor into warping that graph?

 

[BrianLo]

Cripes. They spent $250 Million on the production budget, and then another $300 Million on marketing and distribution costs? No wonder Disney is losing money hand over fist. Especially when it's just one money losing Disney division (Disney+) in 2023 paying another 2023 money losing Disney division (Marvel Studios) for the privilege of being in the same company.

I would assume with Deadpool 3 they are trying to get more than what Guardians 3 made at the box office. If Deadpool 3 only makes $845 Million at the global box office, it will only make about $50 Million profit from the box office. Before they start the internal accounting game of different divisions of Disney paying each other for their money-losing product.

How was this what you took away from my post?

Your calculations and break evens are now demonstrably wrong. I've given you an easy quick fix. Instead you want to make them... more wrong? 850million on Deadpool 3 would be considered excellent by all involved. It would likewise make it one of the highest earning films of the year, as Guardians 3 was last year. Across all Studios.

If I read this right Apes had a good opening weekend but has tapered off?

Admittedly it’s not a franchise I follow closely but did like the original series back in the day when I was a kid.

Ignore TP on this one. Its drop off is largely neutral for a typical tentpole. 55% is neither good nor bad. The Variety quote he highlights says exactly that. It needs to keep up its pace.

Here's a rather positive one from Deadline on the same date; "20th Century Studios/Disney’s Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes saw $10.9M Saturday, +60% over Friday for a 3-day of $25.7M, -56% and a cume near $101M. Bravo, Disney."

 

[Willmark]

TBQH? I’m of the mindset that good or bad I don’t think 2024 is going to be a good indicator of the state one industry. There are multiple factors that are going into this that are going to take a bit of time to resolve.

Disney wisely tamped down how much they are releasing this year. I fully expect something like Deadpool three to reach $1 billion dollars. After that? I’m not so sure what else might get close. Likely not much, but time will tell.

 

[_caleb]

TBQH? I’m of the mindset that good or bad I don’t think 2024 is going to be a good indicator of the state one industry. There are multiple factors that are going into this that are going to take a bit of time to resolve.

I think it's pretty clear that moviegoing habits have changed forever.

 

[TP2000]

How was this what you took away from my post?

Your calculations and break evens are now demonstrably wrong. I've given you an easy quick fix. Instead you want to make them... more wrong? 850million on Deadpool 3 would be considered excellent by all involved. It would likewise make it one of the highest earning films of the year, as Guardians 3 was last year. Across all Studios.

The 2.5X thing often works out just fine. It worked perfectly for the $25 Million loss they just took on The First Omen, for example.

But as I understand it, if a movie over-indexes overseas versus its domestic take, like Elemental did, then the 2.5X model would be more flattering for Pixar than using a 60% Domestic and 40% Overseas box office take that I used in my big, exciting End Of Year tally. Right?

You can continue using the more vague 2.5X model, and as The First Omen shows it can often lead us to directly the same result; a $20 Million loss for that little movie. But I'm so used to using the domestic/overseas differences and so many of Disney's movies play huge overseas, that I'll just keep using that industry standard that a studio gets 40% of its overseas box office, compared to 60% of its domestic box office.

Ignore TP on this one. Its drop off is largely neutral for a typical tentpole. 55% is neither good nor bad. The Variety quote he highlights says exactly that. It needs to keep up its pace.

You aren't ignoring me per se, you are ignoring The Numbers site that posts these graphs for all movies in America.

As a point of reference to the Apes 9 chart above, here's how a movie looks on that chart when it has very good legs.

Barbie (2023) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Barbie (2023) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

I think it's pretty clear that moviegoing habits have changed forever.

I don't think anyone disagrees.

What hasn't changed yet is how Disney budgets their movies in this new business environment. That will likely take another couple years to work itself out, but it seems like they need to slash costs and labor by huge amounts ASAP. Along with most other studios, but Disney seems to be the worst at keeping budgets and costs down right now.

I mean honestly, $350 Million for Indy 5? $250 Million for Little Mermaid Live? $275 Million for The Marvels?

Meanwhile, it their only money making division, there's still no night parade and no new rides under construction?