Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[DisneyWarrior27]

Shogun Season 2/3.

I still don’t fully buy the comment even within the boundaries of how it was presented. There will still be tentpoles, I very much doubt Iger has pivoted from a tentpole strategy. They still need to produce boat loads of content.

But there will be caution, films will stop being made for D+ outside of your Disney Channel faire and they won’t take as many big swings. A Mandalorian would happen but an Andor, unfortunately, would not. More importantly their animated labels are too expensive to produce direct to streaming content.

This is the more accurate statement to make since they’re still making Shogun S2 and S3 each with $250M budgets.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think that’s a misquote of the intention behind the comment. It’s likely more that Peak TV is dead. As in the concept of writing any and every creator open ended cheques.

I don’t even think radio or linear are dead. So it’s hard to call the whole buisness of streaming, which is still in a growth phase, “dead”.

I think the companies know what Wall Street is telling them: they don’t see the money in the model.

But we’ve only been over the details 8 zillion times.

Recreating linear with stream won’t yield the money that is needed

 

[Disney Irish]

I think the companies know what Wall Street is telling them: they don’t see the money in the model.

But we’ve only been over the details 8 zillion times.

Recreating linear with stream won’t yield the money that is needed

And yet studios continue making moves as if streaming matters, why do you think that is? So if the model doesn't result in money why continue to position the various companies with streaming at the center? For example why did WBD literally just split into two with streaming being the core of primary one if streaming is dead? Same with Comcast, why are they spinning off the old cable to its own company but still keeping streaming in its core business? I mean streaming is dead right, you'd think they'd kill off just that part and keep the old linear stuff if that was correct, right? Right?

As the saying goes follow the money. Doesn't take a genius to see that the studios are still all-in on streaming, and in a big way. It may never yield the same return as linear, but it doesn't need to and never did. That was a false equivalence by those that are afraid of the changing of the guard as it were in the technology of media distribution.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Here's what I know about Ashoka S2. It will suck.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And yet studios continue making moves as if streaming matters, why do you think that is? So if the model doesn't result in money why continue to position the various companies with streaming at the center? For example why did WBD literally just split into two with streaming being the core of primary one if streaming is dead? Same with Comcast, why are they spinning off the old cable to its own company but still keeping streaming in its core business? I mean streaming is dead right, you'd think they'd kill off just that part and keep the old linear stuff if that was correct, right? Right?

As the saying goes follow the money. Doesn't take a genius to see that the studios are still all-in on streaming, and in a big way. It may never yield the same return as linear, but it doesn't need to and never did. That was a false equivalence by those that are afraid of the changing of the guard as it were in the technology of media distribution.

Maybe the corps are holding a pair of deuces and without any wiggle…are acting like it’s a straight flush?

 

[Disney Irish]

Maybe the corps are holding a pair of deuces and without any wiggle…are acting like it’s a straight flush?

By spending Billions and offloading legacy media? Not likely a bluff.

The 3 main studios which includes Disney have continued to position themselves alongside Netflix for a long term play in streaming. More consolidation will likely be in the future, but streaming is here to stay. Netflix co-CEO stated the same thing just today in an interview with Bloomberg.

Netflix Co-CEO Sees Warner Split as Part of Broader ‘Shakeout’

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s decision to split into two independent companies is a sign of a broader “shakeout” across a media industry that has become increasingly dominated by streaming and on-demand services, Netflix Inc. co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Peters said.

www.bloomberg.com

So to paraphrase Mark Twain, Streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

 

[Ghost93]

Here's what I know about Ashoka S2. It will suck.

I thought Ahsoka season 1 was alright, but way too niche in appeal. The show is a continuation of both the Clone Wars and Rebels animated TV shows. That's way too much homework for the average fan. I think if Ahsoka season 1 had been animated, it would be looked at more fondly as it would feel like a natural extension of Ahsoka's story.

 

[Disney Irish]

Stitch will likely cross $800M WW tonight if not be very close, currently sitting at $795.2M -

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

By spending Billions and offloading legacy media? Not likely a bluff.

The 3 main studios which includes Disney have continued to position themselves alongside Netflix for a long term play in streaming. More consolidation will likely be in the future, but streaming is here to stay. Netflix co-CEO stated the same thing just today in an interview with Bloomberg.

Netflix Co-CEO Sees Warner Split as Part of Broader ‘Shakeout’

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s decision to split into two independent companies is a sign of a broader “shakeout” across a media industry that has become increasingly dominated by streaming and on-demand services, Netflix Inc. co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Peters said.

www.bloomberg.com

So to paraphrase Mark Twain, Streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

I don’t expect you to move off the theory of it…that’s fine

Nor do I expect you to come up with one legitimate reason why these “streaming titans” can’t conquer the money side of things?

It’s hard out there pumps, I guess?

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t expect you to move off the theory of it…that’s fine

Nor do I expect you to come up with one legitimate reason why these “streaming titans” can’t conquer the money side of things?

It’s hard out there pumps, I guess?

One legitimate reason? Many have been provided to you over the years, you just haven't accepted them. I'm sure @BrianLo has a list he can provide of all the times this has been gone over with you.

Linear is a dying medium and streaming is replacing it, this is not even disputed, so we're beyond theory at this point. Margins for streaming do not have to match linear, nor were they ever expected to, this was something that people who have been against streaming cooked up 5 years ago. However as a streamer who owns their own content and their own distribution platform they get 100% of the entire pie. So while margins will never be the same, the outcome is better overall as it can bring in just as much if not more in the long run. The math is better when you own the whole pie rather than only a slice of it. Not to mention all the other advertising and licensing deals that can be setup by you now being a platform distributor rather than just a content provider, leading to a stronger platform and being more attractive in the long run. This doesn't even get into the potential revenue that can be made by combining future features that can lead to additional revenue streams, they already are testing this with merch.

I mean they already are spending money on content anyways, so what difference does it make whether that content goes on linear or on D+/Hulu or both. In the end they still make the same money overall. Because I don't know if you noticed, but I believe 2024 was the year when streaming ad revenue outpaced linear, ie streaming now makes more money than linear overall.

So again streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

One legitimate reason? Many have been provided to you over the years, you just haven't accepted them. I'm sure @BrianLo has a list he can provide of all the times this has been gone over with you.

Linear is a dying medium and streaming is replacing it, this is not even disputed, so we're beyond theory at this point. Margins for streaming do not have to match linear, nor were they ever expected to, this was something that people who have been against streaming cooked up 5 years ago. However as a streamer who owns their own content and their own distribution platform they get 100% of the entire pie. So while margins will never be the same, the outcome is better overall as it can bring in just as much if not more in the long run. The math is better when you own the whole pie rather than only a slice of it. Not to mention all the other advertising and licensing deals that can be setup by you now being a platform distributor rather than just a content provider, leading to a stronger platform and being more attractive in the long run. This doesn't even get into the potential revenue that can be made by combining future features that can lead to additional revenue streams, they already are testing this with merch.

I mean they already are spending money on content anyways, so what difference does it make whether that content goes on linear or on D+/Hulu or both. In the end they still make the same money overall. Because I don't know if you noticed, but I believe 2024 was the year when streaming ad revenue outpaced linear, ie streaming now makes more money than linear overall.

So again streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

No one ever argued for the preservation of linear

That’s when you get tuned out. You are dreaming up a scenario where the money from streaming will be more lucrative than the linear model and they won’t have to “share the pie”

That’s the entire reason it’s being questioned…there’s no evidence to date of that happening

You want people to pay Bob $50 a month and sit through commercials that they can hold advertisers hostage/ransom for?

It’s one way to look at it…for sure

 

[Disney Irish]

No one ever argued for the preservation of linear

That’s when you get tuned out. You are dreaming up a scenario where the money from streaming will be more lucrative than the linear model and they won’t have to “share the pie”

That’s the entire reason it’s being questioned…there’s no evidence to date of that happening

You want people to pay Bob $50 a month and sit through commercials that they can hold advertisers hostage/ransom for?

It’s one way to look at it…for sure

No evidence you say.....

https://www.voquent.com/blog/digital-tv-ad-revenue-officially-surpasses-linear-tv-in-the-usa/

Global Advertising Revenue Is Recovering — Except for Linear TV

2024 will mark the first year that total global advertising revenue will top $1 trillion, media buying giant GroupM forecasts.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Streaming Ad Spend Will Surpass Linear by 2025

As more and more consumers make the switch from linear to streaming, it looks like advertisers will follow suit.

mountain.com

Video ad spend expected to rise 16%, surpassing linear TV this year | MarTech

IAB's Video Ad Spend study projects $63 billion in video ad spending with more going to digital video than linear for the first time.

martech.org

 

[Disney Irish]

Lets take this streaming talk out of this thread and over to the D+ streaming thread for those that want to continue it.

Return to box office discussions....

 

[MisterPenguin]

If anyone if flummoxed over what's happening in streaming, there's a thread for that that has been tracking cord cutting and the streaming wars that isn't explicitly D+...

Thread 'All Things Streaming (VOD, OTT)'

Dec 16, 2018

This thread will be for all things streaming: video on demand, over the top (TV), Netflix, Roku, Chromecast, AppleTV, Amazon Video, etc...

To kick things off...

Netflix Originals Will Be More In Demand Than Licensed Titles By 2019 – Study

Demand for Netflix originals will outpace demand for licensed titles by October 2019, a new report from Parrot Analytics and Kagan predicts.

deadline.com

Netflix Reveals 2018’s Most-Binged Shows, Most-Re-Watched Original Movies

Netflix said "The Kissing Booth" is its most-re-watched original movie and "On My Block" its "most binged" original show of 2018.

deadline.com

• MisterPenguin
• Replies: 583
• Forum: TV Shows, Movies, and Music

• 

 

[Nevermore525]

Stitch will likely cross $800M WW tonight if not be very close, currently sitting at $795.2M -

View attachment 864106

It passed $800M on Wednesday. The Numbers domestic total is off on that chart vs their detailed breakdown. Daily domestic on The Numbers has it at $348,009,617.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

‘Thunderbolts*’ Lost Millions of Dollars Despite Great Reviews. Where Does Marvel Go Next?

Disney's MCU is at an inflection point. With "Thunderbolts*" the latest box office disappointment, will Marvel continue to back riskier stand-alones?

variety.com

 

[Tha Realest]

Well, first of all I’ve read his entire quote. In which he was talking about large production budgets as what are dead. Not the business viability of the streaming. I was responding to Walter, who was clearly using it to support a different position than what was meant.

I think we agree, but you are lecturing me as opposed to responding to my question. Do you agree with my interpretation of the direction of the business subunit itself is not dead? Or do you really think profits are about to decline, which knowing Walter well, is the way he is using the quote. I don’t think you believe that, or if you do, state your own prediction.

Setting aside Gilroy’s actual quote, you twisted his comment as somehow he really meant “Peak TV” is dead. That’s simply not true - but maybe it is for Disney+?

Severance, Shrinking, Reacher, Poker Face, countless Netflix series, and the Taylor Sheridan extended universe prove “Peak TV” on streaming is alive and well, and continues to thrive. All of those streaming series have very large budgets, and have reached the cultural penetration enjoyed by previous “Peak TV” series.

Disney has clearly pared back on their streaming series while other streamers have keep the course. This is a decidedly Disney problem, one that Gilroy candidly spoke to from his personal experience.

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

To a broader point, it is a little odd that Disney+’s most popular series by a landslide is a licensed Australian production, and the vaunted ESPN has been forced to license shows like Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and soon Rich Eisen. A company of its history and resources should be able to develop such popular products internally and organically.

 

[MisterPenguin]

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

Until the past few months, Disney was putting out more content for home TV/handhelds than any other company when you take into account both linear and streaming. (YouTube is now on top, Disney is second.)

Disney's linear is still putting out top shows on ABC (Abbott Elementary, Grey's Anatomy) and FX (Shogun, The Bear). And they wind up on streaming, mostly Hulu. Hulu puts out its own popular series (Handmaid's Tale, Only Murders in the Building).

Disney+ may have given up on original series... except for the big success of Andor.

And while D+ new content production is down, it receives a steady stream of all the movies that all of the Disney studios create.

And yes, Disney is licensing non-Disney content, like Bluey, it's also licensing out it's own content to other streamers.

Two quarters ago Disney DTC made a profit of a quarter of billion dollars. Last quarter it was a third of a billion. Just think of that. If things stay the way it is, then every 3 quarters, streaming will *profit* a billion dollars.

Ad tier keeps growing (which is more profitable than subs).

Hulu and ESPN will be completely integrated by the end of the year. Bundling reduces churn.

All the content and income from broadcast and cable TV is in the process of going away. Where will it go? Streaming.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Setting aside Gilroy’s actual quote, you twisted his comment as somehow he really meant “Peak TV” is dead. That’s simply not true - but maybe it is for Disney+?

Severance, Shrinking, Reacher, Poker Face, countless Netflix series, and the Taylor Sheridan extended universe prove “Peak TV” on streaming is alive and well, and continues to thrive. All of those streaming series have very large budgets, and have reached the cultural penetration enjoyed by previous “Peak TV” series.

Disney has clearly pared back on their streaming series while other streamers have keep the course. This is a decidedly Disney problem, one that Gilroy candidly spoke to from his personal experience.

In terms of your view that the business itself is not “dead,” that remains to be seen. Disney is clearly hedging its assets by going hard into licensing (Bluey, Rich Eisen, Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and licensing the FX productions via Hulu) and essentially reoffering a cable package (ESPN+Hulu+D+ plus the sports package) so we’ll see how that works in the long term. But they’ve done so at the expense of losing original content they’ve created and intend to create.

To a broader point, it is a little odd that Disney+’s most popular series by a landslide is a licensed Australian production, and the vaunted ESPN has been forced to license shows like Pat McAfee, Inside the NBA, and soon Rich Eisen. A company of its history and resources should be able to develop such popular products internally and organically.

Indeed…there is a lot of whistling past the graveyard when it comes to the “challenges” of this model. You did a great job of pointing them out.

And it’s not just 5 people here…it’s also the companies themselves that are doing it.

For instance…one tiny little man ignored the issue altogether and rode the cable train until it crashed…hesitantly got into it…balked at the prices and is trying to shave it down almost immediately and blame baldy

 

[easyrowrdw]

Until the past few months, Disney was putting out more content for home TV/handhelds than any other company when you take into account both linear and streaming. (YouTube is now on top, Disney is second.)

Disney's linear is still putting out top shows on ABC (Abbott Elementary, Grey's Anatomy) and FX (Shogun, The Bear). And they wind up on streaming, mostly Hulu. Hulu puts out its own popular series (Handmaid's Tale, Only Murders in the Building).

Disney+ may have given up on original series... except for the big success of Andor.

And while D+ new content production is down, it receives a steady stream of all the movies that all of the Disney studios create.

And yes, Disney is licensing non-Disney content, like Bluey, it's also licensing out it's own content to other streamers.

Two quarters ago Disney DTC made a profit of a quarter of billion dollars. Last quarter it was a third of a billion. Just think of that. If things stay the way it is, then every 3 quarters, streaming will *profit* a billion dollars.

Ad tier keeps growing (which is more profitable than subs).

Hulu and ESPN will be completely integrated by the end of the year. Bundling reduces churn.

All the content and income from broadcast and cable TV is in the process of going away. Where will it go? Streaming.

I always forget about Hulu. I think Hulu (or FX on Hulu) has some good programs. I don’t remotely connect them to Disney though. I think probably because many (most?) of them are adult-oriented/TV-MA programs. For me, Disney is something the whole family can enjoy. But even some of the Marvel and Star Wars projects stretch that IMO.

The lack of viable family-friendly alternatives is what has kept us with Disney+. Their back catalogue and Bluey is really unbeatable. There’s little to nothing new that seems worth the subscription price though. It feels like that should be a problem for them but maybe the numbers say otherwise.