Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

It’s more a reflection of business decisions than “cyclical” at this point. It is industry wide though

But again this isn't new. Its just this eras version of things that have happened before. I don't know why this is all of a sudden a surprise.

So you think the execs telling Tony Gilroy that “streaming is dead” behind closed doors isn’t a window into the soul?

I think too much is being made of that off-the-cuff comment. But if you really want to dive into it, I don't think it really means that streaming is dead, ie no more content is going to be made and the services are going away. What I think it really means is that Studios aren't going to be spending $650M on a single show for streaming. But that they will still be making content, just cheaper, just like they have for the last almost 100 years of television. The services ARE NOT going away, its too late for that as the genie is already out of the bottle. They will just get better at producing content for cheaper, again going back to the old model of production for that.

Disney wouldn't have just given Comcast an additional $439M for the rest of Hulu if streaming was really dead. Not to mention that both WBD and Comcast wouldn't be splitting off their old legacy media divisions to focus on streaming as a core business if streaming was really dead. So maybe read the tea leaves here of what the studios are actually doing, not what some writer/director says.

So again I think too much is being made of this off-the-cuff comment by a writer/director that just wrapped a very expensive streaming program and was likely looking to do it again but was told no.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not for a family, which IS the point. Sure when you're going solo that $20 is easy to swallow as its just $40ish or so total when including snacks. But multiple that by 3 or 4 for the average family size and you can see that that $20 quickly adds up and why many families are skipping the movies. Because who really wants to pay upwards of $160 or more to go see something that will most likely be available on your already paid for streaming service in a matter of a couple months at most.

Things are more expensive…

So just close the theaters and studios?

Because that’s the path of least resistance when there isn’t alot of money in it.

And we may get there

…I know…AI generated full house reboots on D+ will just rake

 

[Disney Irish]

Things are more expensive…

So just close the theaters and studios?

Because that’s the path of least resistance when there isn’t alot of money in it.

And we may get there

…I know…AI generated full house reboots on D+ will just rake

Maybe that is where we are heading, who knows I can't predict the future and neither can you.

However if I was to put on my prognostication hat for a second, I would say (as I have before) that what is more likely to happen is that the movie going experience will become a more niche boutique experience. Similar to the Golden Age of Hollywood where it was seen as a once a year or twice a year outing, you got dressed up, had a nice meal, and then go see a movie. Heck, we're about half way there now, so it won't take much to get fully there.

Now can one run a successful Studio in that type of market, I'd say yes because it was done before so can be done again.

Also Full House is owned by WBD and licensed out to Netflix now and they already did a reboot, so another won't be on D+.

 

[BrianLo]

So you think the execs telling Tony Gilroy that “streaming is dead” behind closed doors isn’t a window into the soul?

I think that’s a misquote of the intention behind the comment. It’s likely more that Peak TV is dead. As in the concept of writing any and every creator open ended cheques.

I don’t even think radio or linear are dead. So it’s hard to call the whole buisness of streaming, which is still in a growth phase, “dead”.

 

[Tha Realest]

I think that’s a misquote of the intention behind the comment. It’s likely more that Peak TV is dead. As in the concept of writing any and every creator open ended cheques.

I don’t even think radio or linear are dead. So it’s hard to call the whole buisness of streaming, which is still in a growth phase, “dead”.

This is a silly recharacterization which only makes sense if you ignore they’ve cancelled outright a bunch of series.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think that’s a misquote of the intention behind the comment. It’s likely more that Peak TV is dead. As in the concept of writing any and every creator open ended cheques.

I don’t even think radio or linear are dead. So it’s hard to call the whole buisness of streaming, which is still in a growth phase, “dead”.

Exactly, I think it means they are going to back to trying to make shows with $1M-5M per episode price tag, ie less than $100M for a season. WBD just did this with The Pitt for Max with a price tag of $5M per episode for a season total of $75M.

 

[Disney Irish]

This is a silly recharacterization which only makes sense if you ignore they’ve cancelled outright a bunch of series.

And they cancelled a majority of those for one reason, they were too expensive. They aren’t going to be spending $650M for a show anymore, that is what all this means. The era of huge spends for streaming shows is over.

 

[BrianLo]

This is a silly recharacterization which only makes sense if you ignore they’ve cancelled outright a bunch of series.

Yes, that’s what I define as the peak TV movement. I’m reframing it because I otherwise don’t agree at all with the choice of words Gilroy used.

You think that streaming is “dead”? As in we won’t have streaming platforms within 10 years. He didn’t even use the word decline, which I’d still disagree, but could entertain an argument around. Consolidation maybe being the most palatable to me. Dead is such a silly hyperbole.


Plus I bristle because I know Walter is using it to support his hypothesis that the business subunit of streaming is dead, which is not at all the intent behind his comment. The unbridled blank cheques and proliferation phase is dead.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Yes, that’s what I define as the peak TV movement.

 

[DKampy]

The Wild West of streaming is over…. When everyone was throwing as much money as possible… all in the name of competition…. That was not going to last forever… as now the dust has settle… as it is figured which route is the most profitable

 

[Tha Realest]

Yes, that’s what I define as the peak TV movement. I’m reframing it because I otherwise don’t agree at all with the choice of words Gilroy used.

You think that streaming is “dead”? As in we won’t have streaming platforms within 10 years. He didn’t even use the word decline, which I’d still disagree, but could entertain an argument around. Consolidation maybe being the most palatable to me. Dead is such a silly hyperbole.


Plus I bristle because I know Walter is using it to support his hypothesis that the business subunit of streaming is dead, which is not at all the intent behind his comment. The unbridled blank cheques and proliferation phase is dead.

Disney has scuttled most of their big streaming franchises - even Mandalorian has no current series in development and instead is shifting to a theatrical release.

Tony Gilroy is one of our most gifted writers and wordsmiths. But maybe you know what he meant to express better than he did, and have a better insight as to the inner financials of Disney+ than he does.

 

[BrianLo]

Disney has scuttled most of their big streaming franchises - even Mandalorian has no current series in development and instead is shifting to a theatrical release.

Tony Gilroy is one of our most gifted writers and wordsmiths. But maybe you know what he meant to express better than he did, and have a better insight as to the inner financials of Disney+ than he does.

Well, first of all I’ve read his entire quote. In which he was talking about large production budgets as what are dead. Not the business viability of the streaming. I was responding to Walter, who was clearly using it to support a different position than what was meant.

I think we agree, but you are lecturing me as opposed to responding to my question. Do you agree with my interpretation of the direction of the business subunit itself is not dead? Or do you really think profits are about to decline, which knowing Walter well, is the way he is using the quote. I don’t think you believe that, or if you do, state your own prediction.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Exactly, I think it means they are going to back to trying to make shows with $1M-5M per episode price tag, ie less than $100M for a season. WBD just did this with The Pitt for Max with a price tag of $5M per episode for a season total of $75M.

I do expect Ahsoka S2 to be the last streaming series to cost $100-$200M for a whole season, especially since they’re filming in London and without the Volume this time.

 

[Disney Irish]

I do expect Ahsoka S2 to be the last streaming series to cost $100-$200M for a whole season, especially since they’re filming in London and without the Volume this time.

Can’t say for sure, but as season 1 was listed for between $90-$100M it’ll probably be scaled back itself I would guess.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Can’t say for sure, but as season 1 was listed for between $90-$100M it’ll probably be scaled back itself I would guess.

I don’t think so.

If this is the final season of Ahsoka as rumored and they go all out with it as rumored, I have a feeling it might cost $160M.

Considering they’re filming without the Volume, the recast of Baylan Skoll, moving to the UK where on-location filming will happen, and many more elements that could add to this being a bigger production, I’m inclined to think S2 of Ahsoka’ll cost way more than S1.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t think so.

If this is the final season of Ahsoka as rumored and they go all out with it as rumored, I have a feeling it might cost $160M.

Considering they’re filming without the Volume, the recast of Baylan Skoll, moving to the UK where on-location filming will happen, and many more elements that could add to this being a bigger production, I’m inclined to think S2 of Ahsoka’ll cost way more than S1.

Maybe, but as S1 used the Volume and rumored to cost between $90-100M I wouldn't think there would be a need for it to cost more even if "going all out" and not using the Volume, physical sets doesn't mean it necessarily costs more. Also the fact that they are moving to the UK for some or even all of it means they are trying to get tax credits to keep costs low. And given that we know Disney is scaling back on the costs of its streaming shows, outside of what Gilroy said, I'm more inclined to believe they'll try to cut costs and be under S1s budget, a guess but maybe $75-90M.

 

[BrianLo]

I do expect Ahsoka S2 to be the last streaming series to cost $100-$200M for a whole season, especially since they’re filming in London and without the Volume this time.

Shogun Season 2/3.

I still don’t fully buy the comment even within the boundaries of how it was presented. There will still be tentpoles, I very much doubt Iger has pivoted from a tentpole strategy. They still need to produce boat loads of content.

But there will be caution, films will stop being made for D+ outside of your Disney Channel faire and they won’t take as many big swings. A Mandalorian would happen but an Andor, unfortunately, would not. More importantly their animated labels are too expensive to produce direct to streaming content.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Shogun Season 2/3.

I still don’t fully buy the comment even within the boundaries of how it was presented. There will still be tentpoles, I very much doubt Iger has pivoted from a tentpole strategy. They still need to produce boat loads of content.

But there will be caution, films will stop being made for D+ outside of your Disney Channel faire and they won’t take as many big swings. A Mandalorian would happen but an Andor, unfortunately, would not. More importantly their animated labels are too expensive to produce direct to streaming content.

This is the more accurate statement to make since they’re still making Shogun S2 and S3 each with $250M budgets.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think that’s a misquote of the intention behind the comment. It’s likely more that Peak TV is dead. As in the concept of writing any and every creator open ended cheques.

I don’t even think radio or linear are dead. So it’s hard to call the whole buisness of streaming, which is still in a growth phase, “dead”.

I think the companies know what Wall Street is telling them: they don’t see the money in the model.

But we’ve only been over the details 8 zillion times.

Recreating linear with stream won’t yield the money that is needed

 

[Disney Irish]

I think the companies know what Wall Street is telling them: they don’t see the money in the model.

But we’ve only been over the details 8 zillion times.

Recreating linear with stream won’t yield the money that is needed

And yet studios continue making moves as if streaming matters, why do you think that is? So if the model doesn't result in money why continue to position the various companies with streaming at the center? For example why did WBD literally just split into two with streaming being the core of primary one if streaming is dead? Same with Comcast, why are they spinning off the old cable to its own company but still keeping streaming in its core business? I mean streaming is dead right, you'd think they'd kill off just that part and keep the old linear stuff if that was correct, right? Right?

As the saying goes follow the money. Doesn't take a genius to see that the studios are still all-in on streaming, and in a big way. It may never yield the same return as linear, but it doesn't need to and never did. That was a false equivalence by those that are afraid of the changing of the guard as it were in the technology of media distribution.