Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

‘Thunderbolts*’ Lost Millions of Dollars Despite Great Reviews. Where Does Marvel Go Next?

Disney's MCU is at an inflection point. With "Thunderbolts*" the latest box office disappointment, will Marvel continue to back riskier stand-alones?

variety.com

I think a good takeaway from this article is what Fandango head said -

“Marvel’s calculus has changed,” says Shawn Robbins, Fandango’s movie analytics director. “We’re in a new era where not every Marvel movie is going to hit $1 billion.”

This is the expectation reset I've been talking about for a few years now, and the industry is acknowledging it.

Also thought this was a good thing to highlight as it was noted in the article also -

"Marvel is unique because it isn’t as encumbered as rivals by the profits or losses of single films. The company can recoup some costs through Disney+ and other home entertainment markets, to say nothing of the massive revenue streams from merchandising, theme parks and cruises."

So make of that what you will.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Estimate for HTTYD is $83.7 million domestic, $197.8 million globally. Movie had a $150 million budget.

Unadjusted for inflation, it's the highest opening for a HTTYD movie, but less than the $100 million some were forecasting

I find it amusing that AMC Disney Springs is the highest grossing location and not the movie theater at CityWalk

 

[TP2000]

Happy Father's Day gang, to all our Dad's out there in Discussionland! I hope your day is great, and you got the day you deserve! Steaks? Bourbon? Or just the promise to not get a necktie?

I got a funny custom card from my sister this weekend, made with a photo of our Dad's massive 1967 Lincoln Continental that we were both forbidden from touching, let alone driving. Even on Prom nights or big events, we were both relegated to driving my Mom's pokey Volvo until we could get our own cars. Don't touch Dad's Lincoln!

Here's box office for this weekend. Lilo & Stitch fell to second place finally, due to that dragon. It only lost 500ish theaters, which seems to be a very good hold a month into its run. Thunderbolts, on the other hand, is nearly gone from the box office. It won't be a money maker for Marvel at the box office, to say the least.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Miss Rori]

Solid opening for the franchise, but probably lower than $100M opening many expected after Stitch and Minecraft both hit that mark. So may not be the "Stitch killer" after all, as I've seen some online (not here) make that claim.

I'm surprised anybody would have made a claim like that. HTTYD 2.0 was always going to be the potential Elio killer.

Regarding the marketing for Elio going into next weekend, I agree that it hasn't been particularly inspired, but moviegoing kids and their parents/guardians surely have seen the trailers for that movie more than once by now. That the tracking for it still hasn't improved considerably since Lilo & Stitch is alarming.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Elio has to compete directly with HTTYD next week, and we're about to enter the peak of summer movie competition, but I don't think there's any major family title after Elio until Smurfs?

Superman will draw some kids I think, but if Elio opens low it does have time to build interest with younger children.

 

[Disney Irish]

I'm surprised anybody would have made a claim like that. HTTYD 2.0 was always going to be the potential Elio killer.

I know that some like to dismiss it or discount it here on this side of the forum, but I think there is still bit of an anti-Disney sentiment out there. Especially when it comes to the Disney vs Dreamworks and Disney vs Uni (Comcast) debates, the latter you can see particularly in the theme park space even here on this site.

So it didn't surprise me at all when I saw it online. Basically the idea is that anything that can potentially drop Disney down a peg they are going to root for and pit against something Disney has released, even if its far fetched.

Regarding the marketing for Elio going into next weekend, I agree that it hasn't been particularly inspired, but moviegoing kids and their parents/guardians surely have seen the trailers for that movie more than once by now. That the tracking for it still hasn't improved considerably since Lilo & Stitch is alarming.

As I didn't mention Elio I don't know who you are agreeing with since I didn't bring up its marketing or comment on whether its was inspiring or not. But as you now brought it up, I find it an interesting concept based on what the trailers are showing me. I like the idea of a kid wanting to explore the unknown reaches of space, as we've lack a lot of inspiration like that in the world, especially recently. It reminds me of movies like Explorers from the 80s. My only fear about it is that Sci-Fi animation hasn't done particularly well in the last decade or so, so this might not have been the right time for it. But overall I hope it does well, and if it gets good WoM I think it might.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A lot of good family movies are out and about. School is ending in many places this month. Time for some Summer legs.

IOW... I wouldn't count my theater tickets for any of the movies until the Summer is hatched.

What the heck am I talking about?

 

[Sir_Cliff]

I know that some like to dismiss it or discount it here on this side of the forum, but I think there is still bit of an anti-Disney sentiment out there. Especially when it comes to the Disney vs Dreamworks and Disney vs Uni (Comcast) debates, the latter you can see particularly in the theme park space even here on this site.

So it didn't surprise me at all when I saw it online. Basically the idea is that anything that can potentially drop Disney down a peg they are going to root for and pit against something Disney has released, even if its far fetched.

Indeed. It's certainly noticeable on the theme park side. This has been discussed a little on the Uni threads, but my personal impression is that there is noticeable disappointment that Epic hasn't turned out to be quite the Disney killer some people were hoping it would be.

Obviously HTTYD has been a big hit, but comparing its box office to Lilo & Stitch does go to show how good Disney still is at keeping their films alive relative to other studios. On paper, the HTTYD franchise has grossed far more money and actually is a film franchise rather than a singular film with some TV and DTV spinoffs. Disney, however, has a whole ecosystem into which these films slot very neatly from home entertainment, streaming, the parks, and consumer products that means even less successful ones keep earning money into eternity. The Hercules musical, for example, is currently in previews in London's West End.

I guess my overriding feeling is that the performance of the HTTYD remake, while certainly strong, is another sign that the reports of Disney's demise or at least it's knocking down to level pegging with Dreamworks or Comcast remain greatly exaggerated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Elio has to compete directly with HTTYD next week, and we're about to enter the peak of summer movie competition, but I don't think there's any major family title after Elio until Smurfs?

Superman will draw some kids I think, but if Elio opens low it does have time to build interest with younger children.

It will have to be good or it will bomb

Box office is looking pretty weak for the summer to this point…

Expected more for dragon…and while stitch is a success…it would probably get to a billion easily in a stronger year…if those when exist anymore?

 

[TP2000]

For the two cents this is worth, and without going to see what the box office estimates are for it yet, my pop culture radar senses that Elio is not going to be a big deal.

It will do much better than Strange World, thank God, but I don't think it's going to be a big hit for Burbank and Pixar. Maybe it will do better at the box office than Lightyear and Wish did? Maybe?

I've sat through several Elio commercials on YouTube recently, and I'm just not feeling it. It doesn't help that it seems like one of those movies co-written by the humorless ladies in HR. I just don't sense it's hitting the 2025 zeitgeist.

 

[TP2000]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. So maybe there's hope?

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. So maybe there's hope?

View attachment 865022

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

These “rumors” of the $300M budget only comes from one “source” and it’s not confirmed. That article you posted gets its “info” from that same “source”, so is just regurgitating the same stuff without independent verification.

Elio’s budget may end up being more than the normal $200M, or it might be business as usual with $200M. Point is never just rely on one “source” for this type of info. Because if it’s just coming from one place there is no way to verify if it’s just bad info or not. Also we already know that Pixar accounts for things differently than other studios due to adding in administrative costs of the studio, so I wouldn’t put much credence into a “high” budget anyways, as it’s not the real cost of production.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety

Not sure who I can link to, but if you Google around a bit the story is easy to find. Elio had a massive overhaul mid movie which probably accounts for a lot of the budget. Not sure what was going on with the original but it looks like they decided to seriously rework it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

Thanks for reposting last month's news!

How does a parks blog get "several sources" (the plural!) about the budget of a Disney studio film? Can they not resist click-bait?

Anyhoo, we've been through this before. Film gets reworked, so, it costs more. Trying to 'fix' a movie is a sign that they're holding it to high standards and aren't just churning out slop. Pixar includes the cost of running the studio in it's film budgets, so, Pixar's budgets are significantly more than other studios. Not profiting by a $300M movie is cheaper than scrapping a $200M mess.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Cripes! Gang, I was just doing one of my 8 second Google searches, and doing it inadequately as per usual, and I learned that Elio has a reported production budget of $300 Million?!? Why? How did Emeryville let the budget balloon that far past their usual (and already bloated) $200 Million?

If it's true that Elio has a production budget of $300 Million, and they spend $100 Million on global marketing, that would mean it will need to blow past $800 Million at the global box office to merely break even. And for those of us who use the Metric system and/or ascribe to the less finely tuned 2.5X The Production Budget formula, that still means Elio needs to reach $750 Million at the global box office to break even.

A $200 Million bloated Pixar budget for Elio would already present a steep hill for it to climb, but $300 Million?!? That spells box office doom for Elio I'm afraid. What are they doing on the Pixar campus to spend $300 Million on Elio? Are they sending out free catered lunches and a mani/pedi mobile to all the homeless encampments in Emeryville???

Maybe we can hope it "only" cost $250 Million to produce Elio? I'd also like to see some more trustworthy legacy industry sources confirm that budget this week, like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. So maybe there's hope?

View attachment 865022

Elio Budget Reportedly Skyrockets Toward $300 Million as Pixar Scrambles to Finish Troubled Production

Ongoing production issues have reportedly caused the budget for the Pixar film Elio to skyrocket up to a reported $300 million.

thatparkplace.com

Meh…everyone knows that Disney has slashed all budgets now and that they make trillions of Palmolive ads on D+ forever…

FAKE NEWS!

 

[Ghost93]

I was just looking up AMC showtimes and Elio apparently releases THIS WEEK!?! I go to the theaters every single week and while I've seen an Elio trailer a couple of times, I feel the movie isn't on the general radar for most people. I've heard little buzz or discussion about the movie, which isn't a good sign for its financial prospects.

I hope the movie is good and if it's good I want it to do well. But I feel in the children/family movie space, Lilo & Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon are completely stealing Elio's Thunder.

Maybe this should have come out in August? Because June is too overstuffed, and I feel the three big releases in July — Jurassic World, Superman Legacy and Fantastic Four — would also overshadow the film.

 

[TP2000]

Not sure who I can link to, but if you Google around a bit the story is easy to find. Elio had a massive overhaul mid movie which probably accounts for a lot of the budget. Not sure what was going on with the original but it looks like they decided to seriously rework it.

Ah, okay. If they reworked it "mid movie", I'm thinking that was probably around 2023 during the Strange World and Lightyear PR disasters (which ironically paled in comparison to the Snow White PR disaster of '24), and they had to de-wokify Elio quite a bit. '

Or is there some other reason why a summer children's movie from Pixar would need massive rework and new money?

Thanks for reposting last month's news!

It was news to me, as we had not discussed Elio's budget number in this thread. It had never come up here before.

Even if it was last month's news in another thread, I'm skeptical of the claim and want a better source for it. See below...

Anyhoo, we've been through this before. Film gets reworked, so, it costs more. Trying to 'fix' a movie is a sign that they're holding it to high standards and aren't just churning out slop.

You'd think that after doing these movies for 30 years, Pixar would have a strong foundation beneath their high standards and already know how to begin a $200 Million children's summer movie without worrying it will be slop.

Surely Pixar doesn't begin the storyboarding process with a Post-It note on the wall that says "FYI - This One Is Slop".

Still, I'd love to see a solid report on Elio's budget from a trusted industry source like Variety or The Hollywood Reporter. I've never heard of that blog that came up first on my Google search, so I'm waiting to hear it from a more trusted source. Maybe the rework on Elio only cost them an extra $50 Million, and the budget is a "mere" $250 Million?

That will be something I'll be watching for over this upcoming week, before it launches this weekend.

 

[TP2000]

I was just looking up AMC showtimes and Elio apparently releases THIS WEEK!?! I go to the theaters every single week and while I've seen an Elio trailer a couple of times, I feel the movie isn't on the general radar for most people. I've heard little buzz or discussion about the movie, which isn't a good sign for its financial prospects.

I hope the movie is good and if it's good I want it to do well. But I feel in the children/family movie space, Lilo & Stitch and How to Train Your Dragon are completely stealing Elio's Thunder.

Maybe this should have come out in August? Because June is too overstuffed, and I feel the three big releases in July — Jurassic World, Superman Legacy and Fantastic Four — would also overshadow the film.

I've been getting Elio commercials on YouTube repeatedly for several weeks now. Some of them are the usual short commercials, and some are longer at 60 seconds. I've watched several of them in their entirety, and I'm just not sensing this will be a big hit.

Has Pixar ever released a mega-budget summer blockbuster in August? Isn't that sort of an admission that it's not a big tentpole movie, and might even be "slop"? August seems to be the month that $80 Million throwaways from minor studios are released in, not $200+ Million tentpoles from the likes of Disney and Pixar.

I typed that and then had to Google.... and Pixar has only released their feature films in either May/June or November (Thanksgiving weekends). The sole exception seems to be The Incredibles, that was released October 24th, 2004 for some reason. And the mess of Covid that scrambled the calendar entirely in 2020-2021.

But consistently since 1995, Pixar only releases feature films in May/June or November. Never August.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Ah, okay. If they reworked it "mid movie", I'm thinking that was probably around 2023 during the Strange World and Lightyear PR disasters (which ironically paled in comparison to the Snow White PR disaster of '24), and they had to de-wokify Elio quite a bit. '

Or is there some other reason why a summer children's movie from Pixar would need massive rework and new money?

Hard to say as Disney is good at playing their cards close to their chest, but there were mentions of the original being too “dark”, and references to Earth being “on trial” for something in the original trailer. The new trailers plays up a more traditional “plucky unlikely hero against a big baddie” narrative.

 

[Ghost93]

But consistently since 1995, Pixar only releases feature films in May/June or November. Never August.

I feel the Pixar needs to restrengthen its brand as a draw to theaters for audiences, and to do so it needs to do whatever it can to ensure a great box office run for Elio. I still think June is a bad release date for a movie most people are not sold on. If the reviews are anything less than stellar, I think Elio is going to flop. Frankly, even if the reviews are perfect, I still think there's a decent chance it may flop.

In the 2010s, we got two original Pixar movies that were great and performed great at the box office — Inside Out and Coco. We also got two original movies that were mediocre — Brave and the Good Dinosaur. Brave did okay at the box office, but the Good Dinosaur was a disappointment. The studio at this point had lost its reputation for every movie coming out being an instant classic like it did during its incredible 1995-2009 run.

But the 2010s were largely defined by Pixar being uncreative and following Bob Iger's orders to exploit already-proven IP>

The 2010s had a lot of box offices successes for Pixar, but they were mostly due to being sequels or prequels to existing IP — Monsters University, Cars 3, Incredibles 2, Finding Dory, Toy Story 4. While none of these movies were really bad, none of them matched the eristics heights of Pixar's movies from 1995-2009.

Once Pixar FINALLY started returning to making original movies, it got slapped in the face by COVID-19.

I thought Soul, Luca and Turning Red were all great, but they didn't have the cultural impact of other Pixar movies due to them being released straight to Disney Plus. This release strategy trained people to no longer view Pixar movies as must-see theatrical events, but Direct-to-Video babysitters for the children. And despite these movies being artistically great, I think they were a little less broad appeal than Pixar's earlier movies, with Soul feeling very aimed at adults, Turning Red specifically targeting pre-teen/early teen girls and Luca skewing a bit younger in its demographic.

Pixar's big return to theaters was the underwhelming Lightyear (which I think is better than its reputation, but was still a woeful miscalculation in assessing what people like about Buzz Lightyear and the Toy Story brand).

Elemental and Inside Out 2 were pretty well received, but I think it will take at least 2-3 more ORIGINAL creative and commercial hits in a row to restore Pixar's status as must-see high quality entertainment for all.