Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Yes, that’s what I define as the peak TV movement. I’m reframing it because I otherwise don’t agree at all with the choice of words Gilroy used.

You think that streaming is “dead”? As in we won’t have streaming platforms within 10 years. He didn’t even use the word decline, which I’d still disagree, but could entertain an argument around. Consolidation maybe being the most palatable to me. Dead is such a silly hyperbole.


Plus I bristle because I know Walter is using it to support his hypothesis that the business subunit of streaming is dead, which is not at all the intent behind his comment. The unbridled blank cheques and proliferation phase is dead.

Disney has scuttled most of their big streaming franchises - even Mandalorian has no current series in development and instead is shifting to a theatrical release.

Tony Gilroy is one of our most gifted writers and wordsmiths. But maybe you know what he meant to express better than he did, and have a better insight as to the inner financials of Disney+ than he does.

 

[BrianLo]

Disney has scuttled most of their big streaming franchises - even Mandalorian has no current series in development and instead is shifting to a theatrical release.

Tony Gilroy is one of our most gifted writers and wordsmiths. But maybe you know what he meant to express better than he did, and have a better insight as to the inner financials of Disney+ than he does.

Well, first of all I’ve read his entire quote. In which he was talking about large production budgets as what are dead. Not the business viability of the streaming. I was responding to Walter, who was clearly using it to support a different position than what was meant.

I think we agree, but you are lecturing me as opposed to responding to my question. Do you agree with my interpretation of the direction of the business subunit itself is not dead? Or do you really think profits are about to decline, which knowing Walter well, is the way he is using the quote. I don’t think you believe that, or if you do, state your own prediction.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Exactly, I think it means they are going to back to trying to make shows with $1M-5M per episode price tag, ie less than $100M for a season. WBD just did this with The Pitt for Max with a price tag of $5M per episode for a season total of $75M.

I do expect Ahsoka S2 to be the last streaming series to cost $100-$200M for a whole season, especially since they’re filming in London and without the Volume this time.

 

[Disney Irish]

I do expect Ahsoka S2 to be the last streaming series to cost $100-$200M for a whole season, especially since they’re filming in London and without the Volume this time.

Can’t say for sure, but as season 1 was listed for between $90-$100M it’ll probably be scaled back itself I would guess.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Can’t say for sure, but as season 1 was listed for between $90-$100M it’ll probably be scaled back itself I would guess.

I don’t think so.

If this is the final season of Ahsoka as rumored and they go all out with it as rumored, I have a feeling it might cost $160M.

Considering they’re filming without the Volume, the recast of Baylan Skoll, moving to the UK where on-location filming will happen, and many more elements that could add to this being a bigger production, I’m inclined to think S2 of Ahsoka’ll cost way more than S1.

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t think so.

If this is the final season of Ahsoka as rumored and they go all out with it as rumored, I have a feeling it might cost $160M.

Considering they’re filming without the Volume, the recast of Baylan Skoll, moving to the UK where on-location filming will happen, and many more elements that could add to this being a bigger production, I’m inclined to think S2 of Ahsoka’ll cost way more than S1.

Maybe, but as S1 used the Volume and rumored to cost between $90-100M I wouldn't think there would be a need for it to cost more even if "going all out" and not using the Volume, physical sets doesn't mean it necessarily costs more. Also the fact that they are moving to the UK for some or even all of it means they are trying to get tax credits to keep costs low. And given that we know Disney is scaling back on the costs of its streaming shows, outside of what Gilroy said, I'm more inclined to believe they'll try to cut costs and be under S1s budget, a guess but maybe $75-90M.

 

[BrianLo]

I do expect Ahsoka S2 to be the last streaming series to cost $100-$200M for a whole season, especially since they’re filming in London and without the Volume this time.

Shogun Season 2/3.

I still don’t fully buy the comment even within the boundaries of how it was presented. There will still be tentpoles, I very much doubt Iger has pivoted from a tentpole strategy. They still need to produce boat loads of content.

But there will be caution, films will stop being made for D+ outside of your Disney Channel faire and they won’t take as many big swings. A Mandalorian would happen but an Andor, unfortunately, would not. More importantly their animated labels are too expensive to produce direct to streaming content.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Shogun Season 2/3.

I still don’t fully buy the comment even within the boundaries of how it was presented. There will still be tentpoles, I very much doubt Iger has pivoted from a tentpole strategy. They still need to produce boat loads of content.

But there will be caution, films will stop being made for D+ outside of your Disney Channel faire and they won’t take as many big swings. A Mandalorian would happen but an Andor, unfortunately, would not. More importantly their animated labels are too expensive to produce direct to streaming content.

This is the more accurate statement to make since they’re still making Shogun S2 and S3 each with $250M budgets.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think that’s a misquote of the intention behind the comment. It’s likely more that Peak TV is dead. As in the concept of writing any and every creator open ended cheques.

I don’t even think radio or linear are dead. So it’s hard to call the whole buisness of streaming, which is still in a growth phase, “dead”.

I think the companies know what Wall Street is telling them: they don’t see the money in the model.

But we’ve only been over the details 8 zillion times.

Recreating linear with stream won’t yield the money that is needed

 

[Disney Irish]

I think the companies know what Wall Street is telling them: they don’t see the money in the model.

But we’ve only been over the details 8 zillion times.

Recreating linear with stream won’t yield the money that is needed

And yet studios continue making moves as if streaming matters, why do you think that is? So if the model doesn't result in money why continue to position the various companies with streaming at the center? For example why did WBD literally just split into two with streaming being the core of primary one if streaming is dead? Same with Comcast, why are they spinning off the old cable to its own company but still keeping streaming in its core business? I mean streaming is dead right, you'd think they'd kill off just that part and keep the old linear stuff if that was correct, right? Right?

As the saying goes follow the money. Doesn't take a genius to see that the studios are still all-in on streaming, and in a big way. It may never yield the same return as linear, but it doesn't need to and never did. That was a false equivalence by those that are afraid of the changing of the guard as it were in the technology of media distribution.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Here's what I know about Ashoka S2. It will suck.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

And yet studios continue making moves as if streaming matters, why do you think that is? So if the model doesn't result in money why continue to position the various companies with streaming at the center? For example why did WBD literally just split into two with streaming being the core of primary one if streaming is dead? Same with Comcast, why are they spinning off the old cable to its own company but still keeping streaming in its core business? I mean streaming is dead right, you'd think they'd kill off just that part and keep the old linear stuff if that was correct, right? Right?

As the saying goes follow the money. Doesn't take a genius to see that the studios are still all-in on streaming, and in a big way. It may never yield the same return as linear, but it doesn't need to and never did. That was a false equivalence by those that are afraid of the changing of the guard as it were in the technology of media distribution.

Maybe the corps are holding a pair of deuces and without any wiggle…are acting like it’s a straight flush?

 

[Disney Irish]

Maybe the corps are holding a pair of deuces and without any wiggle…are acting like it’s a straight flush?

By spending Billions and offloading legacy media? Not likely a bluff.

The 3 main studios which includes Disney have continued to position themselves alongside Netflix for a long term play in streaming. More consolidation will likely be in the future, but streaming is here to stay. Netflix co-CEO stated the same thing just today in an interview with Bloomberg.

Netflix Co-CEO Sees Warner Split as Part of Broader ‘Shakeout’

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s decision to split into two independent companies is a sign of a broader “shakeout” across a media industry that has become increasingly dominated by streaming and on-demand services, Netflix Inc. co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Peters said.

www.bloomberg.com

So to paraphrase Mark Twain, Streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

 

[Ghost93]

Here's what I know about Ashoka S2. It will suck.

I thought Ahsoka season 1 was alright, but way too niche in appeal. The show is a continuation of both the Clone Wars and Rebels animated TV shows. That's way too much homework for the average fan. I think if Ahsoka season 1 had been animated, it would be looked at more fondly as it would feel like a natural extension of Ahsoka's story.

 

[Disney Irish]

Stitch will likely cross $800M WW tonight if not be very close, currently sitting at $795.2M -

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

By spending Billions and offloading legacy media? Not likely a bluff.

The 3 main studios which includes Disney have continued to position themselves alongside Netflix for a long term play in streaming. More consolidation will likely be in the future, but streaming is here to stay. Netflix co-CEO stated the same thing just today in an interview with Bloomberg.

Netflix Co-CEO Sees Warner Split as Part of Broader ‘Shakeout’

Warner Bros. Discovery Inc.’s decision to split into two independent companies is a sign of a broader “shakeout” across a media industry that has become increasingly dominated by streaming and on-demand services, Netflix Inc. co-Chief Executive Officer Greg Peters said.

www.bloomberg.com

So to paraphrase Mark Twain, Streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

I don’t expect you to move off the theory of it…that’s fine

Nor do I expect you to come up with one legitimate reason why these “streaming titans” can’t conquer the money side of things?

It’s hard out there pumps, I guess?

 

[Disney Irish]

I don’t expect you to move off the theory of it…that’s fine

Nor do I expect you to come up with one legitimate reason why these “streaming titans” can’t conquer the money side of things?

It’s hard out there pumps, I guess?

One legitimate reason? Many have been provided to you over the years, you just haven't accepted them. I'm sure @BrianLo has a list he can provide of all the times this has been gone over with you.

Linear is a dying medium and streaming is replacing it, this is not even disputed, so we're beyond theory at this point. Margins for streaming do not have to match linear, nor were they ever expected to, this was something that people who have been against streaming cooked up 5 years ago. However as a streamer who owns their own content and their own distribution platform they get 100% of the entire pie. So while margins will never be the same, the outcome is better overall as it can bring in just as much if not more in the long run. The math is better when you own the whole pie rather than only a slice of it. Not to mention all the other advertising and licensing deals that can be setup by you now being a platform distributor rather than just a content provider, leading to a stronger platform and being more attractive in the long run. This doesn't even get into the potential revenue that can be made by combining future features that can lead to additional revenue streams, they already are testing this with merch.

I mean they already are spending money on content anyways, so what difference does it make whether that content goes on linear or on D+/Hulu or both. In the end they still make the same money overall. Because I don't know if you noticed, but I believe 2024 was the year when streaming ad revenue outpaced linear, ie streaming now makes more money than linear overall.

So again streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

One legitimate reason? Many have been provided to you over the years, you just haven't accepted them. I'm sure @BrianLo has a list he can provide of all the times this has been gone over with you.

Linear is a dying medium and streaming is replacing it, this is not even disputed, so we're beyond theory at this point. Margins for streaming do not have to match linear, nor were they ever expected to, this was something that people who have been against streaming cooked up 5 years ago. However as a streamer who owns their own content and their own distribution platform they get 100% of the entire pie. So while margins will never be the same, the outcome is better overall as it can bring in just as much if not more in the long run. The math is better when you own the whole pie rather than only a slice of it. Not to mention all the other advertising and licensing deals that can be setup by you now being a platform distributor rather than just a content provider, leading to a stronger platform and being more attractive in the long run. This doesn't even get into the potential revenue that can be made by combining future features that can lead to additional revenue streams, they already are testing this with merch.

I mean they already are spending money on content anyways, so what difference does it make whether that content goes on linear or on D+/Hulu or both. In the end they still make the same money overall. Because I don't know if you noticed, but I believe 2024 was the year when streaming ad revenue outpaced linear, ie streaming now makes more money than linear overall.

So again streamings death was greatly exaggerated.

No one ever argued for the preservation of linear

That’s when you get tuned out. You are dreaming up a scenario where the money from streaming will be more lucrative than the linear model and they won’t have to “share the pie”

That’s the entire reason it’s being questioned…there’s no evidence to date of that happening

You want people to pay Bob $50 a month and sit through commercials that they can hold advertisers hostage/ransom for?

It’s one way to look at it…for sure

 

[Disney Irish]

No one ever argued for the preservation of linear

That’s when you get tuned out. You are dreaming up a scenario where the money from streaming will be more lucrative than the linear model and they won’t have to “share the pie”

That’s the entire reason it’s being questioned…there’s no evidence to date of that happening

You want people to pay Bob $50 a month and sit through commercials that they can hold advertisers hostage/ransom for?

It’s one way to look at it…for sure

No evidence you say.....

https://www.voquent.com/blog/digital-tv-ad-revenue-officially-surpasses-linear-tv-in-the-usa/

Global Advertising Revenue Is Recovering — Except for Linear TV

2024 will mark the first year that total global advertising revenue will top $1 trillion, media buying giant GroupM forecasts.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Streaming Ad Spend Will Surpass Linear by 2025

As more and more consumers make the switch from linear to streaming, it looks like advertisers will follow suit.

mountain.com

Video ad spend expected to rise 16%, surpassing linear TV this year | MarTech

IAB's Video Ad Spend study projects $63 billion in video ad spending with more going to digital video than linear for the first time.

martech.org

 

[Disney Irish]

Lets take this streaming talk out of this thread and over to the D+ streaming thread for those that want to continue it.

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