Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Nevermore525]

We gonna do this again? They failed to meet their objectives…whether or not they can line item account them down to “break even” misses the entire point of Disneys core business: money and returns

Stitch is what they want…what they wanted from mermaid and all the marvel flops…and what they got from Moana and Inside Out. The ability to make a lot of money for a lot of years to come.

I think people don’t really understand Disney all that well…behind the boardroom door.
They expect nothing but success.

It’s similar to discussions where I say they expect all there hotel rooms to be occupied 365 days a year at 100%.

“They can’t expect that”

No…they really can.

And on the reported balance sheet thus far for Calendar 2025 the Studios sector is ahead of where they were in Calendar 2024.

That said the box office in general domestically for 2025 is still behind that of 2024 with Disney likely still 2nd or at the top of a dwindling domestic box office by the end of May.

 

[TP2000]

Just for fun, here's the inflation adjusted comparison to the first 2002 Lilo & Stitch vs. the 2025 live action remake. The first one in '02 wasn't a box office hit, but it seems the live action remake will do much better. And again, that incredibly modest (for Burbank) production budget of only $100 Million in 2025 is really going to help a great deal for profitability!

 

[brideck]

Burbank has lost hundreds of millions of dollars at the 2025 box office already (Captain America 4, Rachel Zegler's Snow White, The Amateur, Thunderbolts?), so they desperately need a huge tentpole hit.

I'm sure this will be disagreed with, but I don't remember this being posted previously. Deadline (using the same formulations they use to determine the end-of-year successes and failures each Spring) has Snow White as losing less than one would think, primarily because of its post-theatrical allotment. We'll see next Spring if they ultimately stick with that number when the year's biggest bombs are revisited.

https://https://deadline.com/2025/03/snow-white-bombs-rachel-zegler-1236354912/

If so, that would help make this make more sense:

And on the reported balance sheet thus far for Calendar 2025 the Studios sector is ahead of where they were in Calendar 2024.

 

[Nevermore525]

I'm sure this will be disagreed with, but I don't remember this being posted previously. Deadline (using the same formulations they use to determine the end-of-year successes and failures each Spring) has Snow White as losing less than one would think, primarily because of its post-theatrical allotment. We'll see next Spring if they ultimately stick with that number when the year's biggest bombs are revisited.

https://https://deadline.com/2025/03/snow-white-bombs-rachel-zegler-1236354912/

If so, that would help make this make more sense:

First months of the year reporting includes Moana 2, Mufasa, Cap 4, Snow White, and whatever else.

For the calendar Q4 24 (when Moana 2 and Mufasa released) and Q1 25 (when Cap 4, and Snow White releasedwere equivalent in terms of reported box office receipts ($642M for Q4 24 and $646M for Q1 25)

Over the first 3 Months Disney got $646M in the box office revenue from Jan-Mar 2025 vs $124M from Jan-Mar 2024.

And then if you go fiscal comparison first 6 months of fiscal 25 for Disney box office is $1.3B vs $374M for the first 6 months of fiscal 24

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clients/us/the_walt_disney_company/SEC/sec-show.aspx?Type=html&FilingId=18440852&CIK=0001744489&Index=10000

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Current Estimates for the weekend:

$175-$180 million 4 day for Stitch, with an A CinemaScore. PostTrak survey says 61% want a sequel (?!?). 79% under 35, 62% women. AMC Disney Springs is the highest grossing location (are we surprised?).

$77 million 4 day for Mission Impossible with an A- CinemaScore. 62% over 35, 29% over 55 for age demo, 63% men.

Neither movie is competing against each other or hurting the other's business. They're playing to different audiences.

Mission Impossible skewing older and having so many IMAX screens until HTTYD gets released should help it over the coming weeks, but the insane $300-$400 million budget sounds hard to overcome.

Deadline says its the best Memorial Day weekend ever for total box office grosses.

 

[Disney Irish]

Stitch appears to have pulled in $55M for it opening Friday, while M:I8 pulled in just under half that at $24.8M.

Summer Bound For $4.2B After Record $326M+ Memorial Day Weekend: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Dances To $183M Holiday High, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ $77M+ – Monday Box Office Update

Lilo & Stitch grossed $183 million and Mission: Impossible - Final Reckoning $77.5 million to help set a Memorial Day holiday box office record.

deadline.com

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Think it's safe to say Stitch will be the highest grossing movie of the Summer.

Movies like HTTYD and Superman have the potential for $100+ million opening weekends, but I don't see anything else doing close to $200 million in their first 4 days alone (holiday Monday or not).

 

[Nevermore525]

Think it's safe to say Stitch will be the highest grossing movie of the Summer.

Movies like HTTYD and Superman have the potential for $100+ million opening weekends, but I don't see anything else doing close to $200 million in their first 4 days alone (holiday Monday or not).

Jurassic Rebirth is a wild card and how it does in Asia.

But yeah it’s the summer of Stitch and everything else can get in line behind it.

 

[Nevermore525]

Stitch appears to have pulled in $55M for it opening Friday, while M:I8 pulled in just under half that at $24.8M.

Summer Bound For $4.2B After Record $326M+ Memorial Day Weekend: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Dances To $183M Holiday High, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ $77M+ – Monday Box Office Update

Lilo & Stitch grossed $183 million and Mission: Impossible - Final Reckoning $77.5 million to help set a Memorial Day holiday box office record.

deadline.com

Holiday weekend difference with folks potentially traveling, Stitch with $55M, IO2 with $63.5M over a summer weekend last year.

Stitch pulled $1.5M more than IO2 on Thursday previews

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Or as some people put it: “Nobody asked for this!“

 

[LittleBuford]

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Or as some people put it: “Nobody asked for this!“

I honestly haven’t heard that said much in relation to this particular film. People seem to be approaching it very differently from the other remakes, even though it’s open to the same objections.

 

[Disney Irish]

Holiday weekend difference with folks potentially traveling, Stitch with $55M, IO2 with $63.5M over a summer weekend last year.

Stitch pulled $1.5M more than IO2 on Thursday previews

Potentially, its only an $8.5M difference, but could be also possible that IO (and Pixar in general) as being a more recent property has slightly more of a fan base.

 

[Disney Irish]

BTW, Thunderbolts is still bringing in higher daily totals than Cap4 at the same point. Its on track to bring in more than Cap4 domestically if not also internationally by the end of its run, leading to a larger WW total in the end. Which I know some will automatically mention that isn't what Disney wants since its not huge numbers, but that is beside the point. As it shows that the audience might be coming back, albeit slowly. So it'll be interesting to see if F4 does good numbers leading to more audience engagement down the line.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

 

[Tony the Tigger]

BTW, Thunderbolts is still bringing in higher daily totals than Cap4 at the same point. Its on track to bring in more than Cap4 domestically if not also internationally by the end of its run, leading to a larger WW total in the end. Which I know some will automatically mention that isn't what Disney wants since its not huge numbers, but that is beside the point. As it shows that the audience might be coming back, albeit slowly. So it'll be interesting to see if F4 does good numbers leading to more audience engagement down the line.

Finally saw this. It was fine. I found cap four more enjoyable to sit through. Found myself dozing off a few times. It seemed slow in spots.

So despite the better/good reviews, I don’t think word of mouth was as enthusiastic as, let’s say, sinners. Clearly, the numbers are disappointing after opening week.

Maybe the next one is more interesting if they have two different batches of supposed avengers fighting each other.

 

[Disney Irish]

Finally saw this. It was fine. I found cap four more enjoyable to sit through. Found myself dozing off a few times. It seemed slow in spots.

So despite the better/good reviews, I don’t think word of mouth was as enthusiastic as, let’s say, sinners. Clearly, the numbers are disappointing after opening week.

Maybe the next one is more interesting if they have two different batches of supposed avengers fighting each other.

The next movie is Fantastic Four (F4) and after that its Doomday and then Secret Wars. So we'll see what those stories bring.

 

[Nevermore525]

The next movie is Fantastic Four (F4) and after that its Doomday and then Secret Wars. So we'll see what those stories bring.

There’s also Spider-Man: Brand New Day that now leads into Doomsday. Granted Sony does the distribution for Spider-Man still.

 

[Disney Irish]

There’s also Spider-Man: Brand New Day that now leads into Doomsday. Granted Sony does the distribution for Spider-Man still.

Yes, I wasn't directly counting that since it likely won't deal with any Avengers directly other than Spidey.

 

[Nevermore525]

Yes, I wasn't directly counting that since it likely won't deal with any Avengers directly other than Spidey.

Just something that can be a lead in to Doomsday and provide some build up to it. Especially with how No Way Home was received.

 

[Disney Irish]

Just something that can be a lead in to Doomsday and provide some build up to it. Especially with how No Way Home was received.

Well it was suppose to come after Doomsday, so if there was anything being tied to Brand New Day from Doomsday it'll have to be changed, or the movie will have to be rescheduled to after Dec 2026.