Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Nevermore525]

Well it was suppose to come after Doomsday, so if there was anything being tied to Brand New Day from Doomsday it'll have to be changed, or the movie will have to be rescheduled to after Dec 2026.

Production hasn’t started for Brand New Day and only just getting going for Doomsday, I’m sure they had some planning in motion before this change was officially announced

 

[BrianLo]

I didn’t realize there was such a gap in the MCU. That’s weird, a big pull back from a few years ago.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I didn’t realize there was such a gap in the MCU. That’s weird, a big pull back from a few years ago.

A lot of these recent movies have had various delays, which has led to some odd timing and gaps in the schedule.

But we still have the same number of MCU movies this year as we did in 2022 and 2023. It's just that they were all front loaded in the calendar compared to those years when there was a November release. This year's 3rd Marvel release is in July and there's no Feb 2026 release.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

The next movie is Fantastic Four (F4) and after that its Doomday and then Secret Wars. So we'll see what those stories bring.

Yeah. Saw the trailer. I think the only hook for me there is I enjoy Pedro Pascal (in a non-romantic way.)

 

[Animaniac93-98]

We talk a lot about post box office revenue, but what about post box office revenue 30 years later?

"There’s a lot of questions whether this opening (and we haven’t seen the full spectrum of foreign yet) is substantial for a production which cost $300M-$400M. Here’s the thing: For Hollywood studios, the value of franchise properties increases with each subsequent installment and across multiple revenue streams. Where new entries have one waterfall, franchise films benefit from an entire library. Paramount celebrated the Mission: Impossible franchise across Home Entertainment digital platforms and Paramount+, driving a substantial uptick in views of the previous films on Paramount+ and transactions via Digital Retail partners. I’ve heard that the original 1996 movie alone generates $10M a year from all types of media for the Melrose lot. Hence, that $300M+ movie is a lifelong investment that should pay off heads and tails in TV airings and streamings of Final Reckoning. Also remember, Paramount is only on the hook for 50% of the production cost."

Summer Bound For $4.2B After Record $326M+ Memorial Day Weekend: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Dances To $183M Holiday High, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ $77M+ – Monday Box Office Update

Lilo & Stitch grossed $183 million and Mission: Impossible - Final Reckoning $77.5 million to help set a Memorial Day holiday box office record.

deadline.com

Disney's magic in the past was having a library of unrelated titles sharing the common company name, or sub brand in video collections ("Classics", "Masterpiece Collection", "The [x actor] Collection")

 

[Tony the Tigger]

They’re referring to Mission impossible here, but this is very relevant to recent discussions in this thread about lifetime revenue across channels.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Memorial Day Box Office Record Breaker! ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Debuts to Massive $183 Million, ‘Mission: Impossible’ Scores Series-Best $77 Million

"Lilo & Stitch" and "Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning" fueled a Memorial Day weekend box office record.

variety.com

It’s a Memorial Day weekend for the box office record books.

Movie theaters across the country were jamming as “Lilo & Stitch” and Tom Cruise’s “Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning” fueled the largest Memorial Day holiday in history — and established several other benchmarks in the process.

Families turned out in force for Disney’s live-action “Lilo & Stitch” remake, which collected a blockbuster $145.5 million in its opening weekend and estimated $183 million through Monday. Those ticket sales defied projections and cemented a Memorial Day opening weekend record, overtaking a different Cruise tentpole, 2022’s “Top Gun: Maverick,” with $126 million over the weekend and $160 million through the four days. “Lilo & Stitch” also secured the second-largest start across any four-day holiday weekend, behind only 2018’s “Black Panther,” which amassed $242 million over Presidents’ Day.

 

[Nevermore525]

Disney became the first of the domestic studios to hit $2B globally for 2025 following this weekend.

 

[LittleBuford]

Disney became the first of the domestic studios to hit $2B globally for 2025 following this weekend.

They were the only studio to reach that milestone last year too. You’d never know it from most of the things posted here, of course.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Disney became the first of the domestic studios to hit $2B globally for 2025 following this weekend.

You mean they didn’t go broke?

 

[Nevermore525]

You mean they didn’t go broke?

Apparently not? The one studio that keeps defying narratives that are only made for them!

 

[TP2000]

Disney doesn’t make movies like Cap 4 and Thunderbolts to break even in theaters.

Especially when they are spending $180 to $250 Million on those tentpole movies from Lucas, Marvel, Pixar, WDAS, Disney, etc. to get them into a theater.

That said, Lilo & Stitch, with its comparatively modest $100 Million production budget is an interesting twist. If Burbank can use AI and replace a bunch of people on the studio lot with technology to get the costs down for most of their movies to $100 Million, I could see that penciling out for them quite handily.

Assuming that those new $100 Million tentpoles made with AI Helper go on to do decent streaming/rental business in the first few fiscal years after they do merely "okay" in theaters.

I'm sure this will be disagreed with, but I don't remember this being posted previously. Deadline (using the same formulations they use to determine the end-of-year successes and failures each Spring) has Snow White as losing less than one would think, primarily because of its post-theatrical allotment.

Think of it this way... This thread is about box office, which gives us a fairly accurate dollar figure to know how deep the financial holes are the bombs like Snow White or Indy 5 or Wish made for themselves, or how deep the holes are mere flops like Captain America 4 or Thunderbolts are in to creep their way out of via future streaming fees.

We'll see next Spring if they ultimately stick with that number when the year's biggest bombs are revisited.

That sounds reasonable. But we'll need a new thread for that future-potential earnings reporting. Probably best to call it something like "Disney+ And Rental Income From Yesteryear's Movies". I don't know, the title needs some work. Something catchier. I'll let the thread starter for that mull it over more, whomever they may be.

 

[TP2000]

Here's a quick holiday weekend update, and we'll need to wait for Tuesday for the full 4 day weekend haul.

This is the inflation adjusted look at the opening weekend's for some of the live action remakes of the past decade. Lilo & Stitch is in 2nd place, handily beating Aladdin and coming in behind Beauty & The Beast.

And again, with that tiny $100 Million production budget, Lilo & Stitch is going to be profitable by early June! Now that's the way to make a fun summer blockbuster, Burbank! Let's hope they remember that. How did the Lilo & Stitch budget remain so low??? Anyone know? Was this supposed to be a TV show that they strung together into a movie?

 

[TP2000]

Disney became the first of the domestic studios to hit $2B globally for 2025 following this weekend.

You mean they didn’t go broke?

Apparently not? The one studio that keeps defying narratives that are only made for them!

The next basic question to ask, in any sort of financial cost/benefit analysis, is how much money did Disney spend on production and marketing to hit that $2 Billion in global ticket sales by Memorial Day?

I'm guessing it's a lot more than the 2nd or 3rd place studios spent to get their box office totals so far.

 

[TP2000]

Disney became the first of the domestic studios to hit $2B globally for 2025 following this weekend.

They were the only studio to reach that milestone last year too. You’d never know it from most of the things posted here, of course.

Sort of answering my own point I just made about how much money Burbank spent to produce and market those movies in 2025, I'm just going to throw this out there.

SPOILER ALERT: It was just over $1 Billion, or $1,060,000,000 more precisely. Plus whatever the spent on marketing and distribution for those 7 movies, maybe $500 Million combined? So Disney has lost about $550 Million so far in 2025, mostly due to the Snow White mega-bomb, and the two Marvel flaccid underperformers they've had so far.

I'm assuming the 2025 box office total of $2 Billion includes the late 2024 releases of Mufasa and Moana 2, with their January to March box office added to the '25 total? So we'll need to include their production costs into the mix.

Because I'm heading out to Barbecue #2 (the Adults Only one, thank goodness!) shortly, I'm not going to get into the financial weeds, but it looks like Moana 2 made about $150 million globally in Jan/Feb off its production budget of $150 Million, and Mufasa made about $500 Million of its global total in Jan. to March. So let's just say $650 Million from Mufasa and Moana 2 in '25, but I'm open to someone else doing the more specific math.

Then add the five current 2025 movies from Burbank to that...

By my rough rounding math for Moana 2 and Mufasa, Burbank has made $2,020,000,000 thus far at the global box office in 2025. And it cost them $1,560,000,000 to produce and market those seven movies to got that box office total.

Assuming, again very broadly, that Disney got a 50% cut of that global box office total, Burbank has lost about $550 Million so far as of Memorial Day Weekend. Lilo & Stitch will eat into that deficit quickly in June, thank goodness, but that lone hit will need to get to well over $1 Billion in global box office to erase that deficit.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Nevermore525]

Sort of answering my own point I just made about how much money Burbank spent to produce and market those movies in 2025, I'm just going to throw this out there.

SPOILER ALERT: It was just over $1 Billion, or $1,060,000,000 more precisely. Plus whatever the spent on marketing and distribution for those 7 movies, maybe $500 Million combined? So Disney has lost about $550 Million so far in 2025, mostly due to the Snow White mega-bomb, and the two Marvel flaccid underperformers they've had so far.

I'm assuming the 2025 box office total of $2 Billion includes the late 2024 releases of Mufasa and Moana 2, with their January to March box office added to the '25 total? So we'll need to include their production costs into the mix.

Because I'm heading out to Barbecue #2 (the Adults Only one, thank goodness!) shortly, I'm not going to get into the financial weeds, but it looks like Moana 2 made about $150 million globally in Jan/Feb off its production budget of $150 Million, and Mufasa made about $500 Million of its global total in Jan. to March. So let's just say $650 Million from Mufasa and Moana 2 in '25, but I'm open to someone else doing the more specific math.

Then add the five current 2025 movies from Burbank to that...

View attachment 860499

By my rough rounding math for Moana 2 and Mufasa, Burbank has made $2,020,000,000 thus far at the global box office in 2025. And it cost them $1,560,000,000 to produce and market those seven movies to got that box office total.

Assuming, again very broadly, that Disney got a 50% cut of that global box office total, Burbank has lost about $550 Million so far as of Memorial Day Weekend. Lilo & Stitch will eat into that deficit quickly in June, thank goodness, but that lone hit will need to get to well over $1 Billion in global box office to erase that deficit.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

Don’t forget to tack on the $920M they’ve gotten in reported PVOD and licensing revenue so far this year. Obviously not all attributed to the films released this year, but it’s ongoing revenue received that cover the cost of their content.

 

[HoustonHorn]

https://deadline.com/2025/05/lilo-stitch-marketing-box-office-1236410814/

Deadline has a good post-mortem of Disney's marketing for Stitch. And far be it for me to step on any toes re: profitability, but they break this down at the end of the article as well. If you count ancillaries, it's already in the black. On pure box office, per Deadline, it needs $410ww, and will have more than $340 this weekend alone!

Also some fascinating nuggets in there about how L&S generates $2.5 billion in retail revenue per year - one of 11 Disney franchises to earn more than $1 billion annually on retail.

Out of the box office and into personal experience, I saw this with my 10 yo daughter on Friday. Relatively empty theatre (of course, it was 1 in the afternoon - she finished school for the year at 11:15, but a lot of schools here are going back this week), but multiple suckers sprung for the Stitch Combo (this guy included) at the concession stand, and there were lots of tears shed during the movie. I thought it was a good way to update an animated movie so that it wasn't a shot-for-shot remake, but didn't stray so far from the heart and themes of the original so as to be unrecognizable. While we weren't in the population surveyed, my daughter and I talked about our hope for sequels after it was over.

 

[TP2000]

Don’t forget to tack on the $920M they’ve gotten in reported PVOD and licensing revenue so far this year. Obviously not all attributed to the films released this year, but it’s ongoing revenue received that cover the cost of their content.

If you could break that down into which films from 2024 were streaming in the first five months of 2025, and which films from 2025 have yet to stream, that would be helpful.

 

[Nevermore525]

If you could break that down into which films from 2024 were streaming in the first five months of 2025, and which films from 2025 have yet to stream, that would be helpful.

Moana 2 hit PVOD January 28 (on D+ March 12)
Mufasa February 18 (D+ March 26)
Snow White May 13 (No D+ date yet)
Captain America 4 April 15 (D+ May 28)
Thunderbolts*, The Amateur, and Lilo & Stitch has nothing yet for PVOD or D+/Hulu

 

[BrianLo]

And again, with that tiny $100 Million production budget, Lilo & Stitch is going to be profitable by early June! Now that's the way to make a fun summer blockbuster, Burbank! Let's hope they remember that. How did the Lilo & Stitch budget remain so low??? Anyone know? Was this supposed to be a TV show that they strung together into a movie?

The movie wasn’t actually made by Disney, it was made by Rideback and distributed by Disney. Rideback also made the live action Aladdin.

I hope it’s ok that we talk about production costs, who produces the films and profit… since those are not in the title of the thread.