Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

The movie wasn’t actually made by Disney, it was made by Rideback and distributed by Disney. Rideback also made the live action Aladdin.

I hope it’s ok that we talk about production costs, who produces the films and profit… since those are not in the title of the thread.

Wasn't it technically co-produced? So unknown who actually paid for what. But this at least would be similar to Avatar where Cameron makes it and Disney distributed it, so the cost/revenue of who gets what down to the percentages is murky.

 

[BrianLo]

Wasn't it technically co-produced? So unknown who actually paid for what. But this at least would be similar to Avatar where Cameron makes it and Disney distributed it, so the cost/revenue of who gets what down to the percentages is murky.

Oh Disney gets the money, it’s just a different production group they used - and clearly cheaper.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

I looked at going this evening. The theaters were way too full. Every showing, two locations. Only seats available were maybe the first two rows, which I don’t enjoy. I also don’t enjoy a crowded theater.

We will take a look on Monday.

 

[Stripes]

The next basic question to ask, in any sort of financial cost/benefit analysis, is how much money did Disney spend on production and marketing to hit that $2 Billion in global ticket sales by Memorial Day?

I'm guessing it's a lot more than the 2nd or 3rd place studios spent to get their box office totals so far.

Paramount reportedly spent $500 million on production and marketing for Mission Impossible.

 

[Tha Realest]

Paramount reportedly spent $500 million on production and marketing for Mission Impossible.

More like Mission: Irresponsible.

 

[Disney Irish]

Sort of answering my own point I just made about how much money Burbank spent to produce and market those movies in 2025, I'm just going to throw this out there.

SPOILER ALERT: It was just over $1 Billion, or $1,060,000,000 more precisely. Plus whatever the spent on marketing and distribution for those 7 movies, maybe $500 Million combined? So Disney has lost about $550 Million so far in 2025, mostly due to the Snow White mega-bomb, and the two Marvel flaccid underperformers they've had so far.

I'm assuming the 2025 box office total of $2 Billion includes the late 2024 releases of Mufasa and Moana 2, with their January to March box office added to the '25 total? So we'll need to include their production costs into the mix.

Because I'm heading out to Barbecue #2 (the Adults Only one, thank goodness!) shortly, I'm not going to get into the financial weeds, but it looks like Moana 2 made about $150 million globally in Jan/Feb off its production budget of $150 Million, and Mufasa made about $500 Million of its global total in Jan. to March. So let's just say $650 Million from Mufasa and Moana 2 in '25, but I'm open to someone else doing the more specific math.

Then add the five current 2025 movies from Burbank to that...

View attachment 860499

By my rough rounding math for Moana 2 and Mufasa, Burbank has made $2,020,000,000 thus far at the global box office in 2025. And it cost them $1,560,000,000 to produce and market those seven movies to got that box office total.

Assuming, again very broadly, that Disney got a 50% cut of that global box office total, Burbank has lost about $550 Million so far as of Memorial Day Weekend. Lilo & Stitch will eat into that deficit quickly in June, thank goodness, but that lone hit will need to get to well over $1 Billion in global box office to erase that deficit.

The Numbers - Where Data and the Movie Business Meet

The Numbers provides detailed movie financial analysis, including box office, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, and release schedules.

www.the-numbers.com

Well according to Deadline you're about $63M short on your 2025 rounding totals there.

‘Lilo & Stitch’ Surfs To Galactic $341.7M Global Opening; ‘Mission: Impossible – Final Reckoning’ Lights The Fuse With Franchise-Best $204M WW Launch – International Box Office

Lilo & Stitch grossed $341.7M in its global opening, while Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning served up a franchise-best start of $204M WW

deadline.com

Which puts Disney at about $487M in the red, only if we're assuming the rest of your calculations are correct for the production and marketing costs (which we know can also be off as previously discussed). I think its closer to $360M myself (I could be off on the math as I'm just eyeballing it for discussion purposes), if we half the marketing budget totals you've been using to just the theatrical window only, again as previously discussed.

Which means, again just eyeballing it, Stitch only really needs to get ~$850M to erase any deficit so far during 2025. @BrianLo or someone can check the math to be sure, but I don't think its as much of a gargantuan task as you alluded to that requires a bunch of heavy lifting by Stitch.

 

[Disney Analyst]

“Lilo & Stitch” is successfully causing box office mayhem. Disney’s latest live-action remake ignited to $341 million globally, including a mighty $157.8 million from international markets.

It’s the second-largest worldwide opening weekend of the year behind the Warner Bros. video game adaptation “A Minecraft Movie” ($313 million worldwide over three days). Ticket sales for “Lilo” also rank as the third-best start for Disney’s live-action reboots following 2019’s “The Lion King” and 2017’s “Beauty and the Beast,” which each ended up grossing over $1 billion.

Box Office: ‘Lilo & Stitch’ Ignites to $341 Million Globally, ‘Mission: Impossible 8’ Climbs to $200 Million

"Lilo & Stitch' ignited to $300 million globally while "Mission: Impossible" climbs near $200 million in its first weekend.

variety.com

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Our theaters keep filling up too much all day.

Right now 7:30 or 7:45 look bearable, but so did 5:30 a couple of hours ago. Oddly, one AMC seems to be running a 7, 7:30 and 7:45 (plus 6:30 and 8 in 3D) which seems to be spreading people out more. There’s been no other cluster like that all day.

We shall see…

 

[Disney Irish]

Our theaters keep filling up too much all day.

Right now 7:30 or 7:45 look bearable, but so did 5:30 a couple of hours ago. Oddly, one AMC seems to be running a 7, 7:30 and 7:45 (plus 6:30 and 8 in 3D) which seems to be spreading people out more. There’s been no other cluster like that all day.

We shall see…

Stitch has had 45% walk-up business, which is unusually high these days. Add in another recent movie of Minecraft having 57% walk-up, and it kind of puts into questions how much pre-sales should be trusted in future predictions.

 

[Phroobar]

What I think is interesting is seeing seating reserved on the app but those seats are empty during the movie. Are people buying tickets and not showing up?

 

[Disney Irish]

What I think is interesting is seeing seating reserved on the app but those seats are empty during the movie. Are people buying tickets and not showing up?

Though I’ve only seen that happen a couple times, I’ve always suspected it’s the theater holding a few seats back for walk-ups.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

OK, we saw it. We enjoyed it. Neither of us had seen the original, so we had no preconceived notions. We thought Lilo was adorable, and a good actress for her age. The cgi was quite good.

I had no idea Stitch’s backstory, etc.

Thought it might be a little funnier. Got choked up near the end. Definitely cared about the characters, which definitely doesn’t always happen. I’d see a sequel, and on the suggestion (insistence?) of @Tiggerish I’m going to watch the original (probably on my own.)

So, we liked it. It made me finally like Stitch after all these years. It wasn’t earth shattering, but did remind me of some fun 70’s-80’s movies “for kids” like Escape From Witch Mountain and the like.

The theater - we took our chances. It was about 2/3 full. Most of them were families with a bunch of kids. I knew that was a possibility going in.

I couldn’t believe: every single one of them all talked through the entire movie. They were half paying attention, walking around. Someone tried to shush them at one point, to no avail. I decided to draw on my “big brother brain” where you can block out the voices of little kids.

Why do people think this is acceptable? I can’t imagine going to the movies with my mother as a kid - and talking through the film. She would never allow that. It’s mind-boggling.

Side note: for whatever reason (glitch) the AMC app would not allow me to complete my purchase with points. Further, there was a convenience fee of about $4.50. Two tickets ended up costing $38 and change. That’s a lot just to see a movie. If we upgrade our Stubbs account to a higher level for $18, it would eliminate the fee. Should have done it. Was in a hurry, and was annoyed that our current membership level didn’t remove that fee anymore.

The film is definitely worth watching.

 

[BrianLo]

Which means, again just eyeballing it, Stitch only really needs to get ~$850M to erase any deficit so far during 2025. @BrianLo or someone can check the math to be sure, but I don't think its as much of a gargantuan task as you alluded to that requires a bunch of heavy lifting by Stitch.

Fast math would have Snow at a loss of 235 (Deadline said way less, but we'll see what they say next year), Cap 4 a 17.5 loss, Thunderbolts a loss of 47.5 so far and Stitch has made 20. I won't include the tail end of Moana 2 or Mufasa, because that just makes it already positive.

Your 850 figure checks out, considering Thunderbolts is still making money. Of course that Jan-March quarter was already fully covered up by last years releases. We already know that from the quarterlies.

 

[Disney Irish]

Fast math would have Snow at a loss of 235 (Deadline said way less, but we'll see what they say next year), Cap 4 a 17.5 loss, Thunderbolts a loss of 47.5 so far and Stitch has made 20. I won't include the tail end of Moana 2 or Mufasa, because that just makes it already positive.

Your 850 figure checks out, considering Thunderbolts is still making money. Of course that Jan-March quarter was already fully covered up by last years releases. We already know that from the quarterlies.

Thanks, I think it’s safe to say that Stitch will get to $850M fairly easy just based on opening strong. Rest of 2025 I think will be strong also, but we’ll see.

 

[Clyde Birdbrain]

What I think is interesting is seeing seating reserved on the app but those seats are empty during the movie. Are people buying tickets and not showing up?

Maybe they are last-minute cancellations or A-List people not showing up?

At AMC you can cancel up to until the movie starts.

I saw Lilo & Stitch at AMC Disney Springs on Saturday and all the seats around us on our row were empty until well into the previews. These people were not showing up until 15 minutes after the lights went out.

 

[Phroobar]

Maybe they are last-minute cancellations or A-List people not showing up?

At AMC you can cancel up to until the movie starts.

I saw Lilo & Stitch at AMC Disney Springs on Saturday and all the seats around us on our row were empty until well into the previews. These people were not showing up until 15 minutes after the lights went out.

That's the thing. I checked once the movie started and those seats were still reserved. It feels like up to 1/3 of the seats were empty.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m always on the oppo side of things

L&S made $183 domestically…that’s good…no matter our perceptions of presold seats

Marvel = bad
Snow White = embarrassing
Stitch = good

Not hard


I will say…those trailers for the next two look pretty awful

We’ll be back to normal soon

 

[Disney Irish]

I’m always on the oppo side of things

L&S made $183 domestically…that’s good…no matter our perceptions of presold seats

Marvel = bad
Snow White = embarrassing
Stitch = good

Not hard


I will say…those trailers for the next two look pretty awful

We’ll be back to normal soon

I think you're making a joke here, but what is normal in this context? As I've been hearing this idea that we're about to "return to normal" at the box office for the past 5 years in this forum, but its yet to happen in any meaningful way. We have spurts and glimpses of it, but it never actually materializes. So I question the metric used here to determine "normal". And if its in reference to a "Disney normal" or their lack of hitting it in 2025, I ask for what era because there have been many "Disney normal" decades over its 100 years of existence from "failure normal" to "ruling the box office normal".

Also just on a personal note, I hate when people describe things as "normal", because in reality there is no such thing. Normal is a construct of someones perception of what is pleasant.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I hate when people describe things as "normal", because in reality there is no such thing. Normal is a construct of someone's perception of what is pleasant.

 

[Disney Irish]

View attachment 861006

Except your "normal" is different than my "normal" is different than another persons "normal". Normalcy is a perception, one that changes from person to person. There can be an agreed upon "normal", but even that is based on perception and changes.