Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Miss Rori]

Inside Out 2 or Despicable Me 4.

At least one of those will do well.

With less than 3 weeks to go at this point for IO 2, I'm surprised the marketing and merchandising hasn't ramped up. I've seen some of the tie-in plushies/toys at Wal-Mart but the books don't arrive until Tuesday. Why oh why is McDonald's doing the Captain America - Brave New World Happy Meal promotion now when they could have got the jump on IO 2 by a few weeks?

That said I wouldn't be surprised if the review embargo is lifted next week.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[TP2000]

But it really seems few people want to head out to the movies this holiday weekend; The Little Mermaid remake did $118.8 million last year for the 4-day!

Interesting point. Here's what the Top 5 Memorial Day Box Office looked like last year thru Sunday.

The top 5 movies pulled in a combined $150 Million in domestic box office. And a couple of those were aging movies that had already made hundreds of millions a piece by Memorial Day '23.

We'll have to see what this holiday weekend chart looks like for 2024 tomorrow, but you can already tell it will be dismal.

 

[Disney Irish]

And posters wonder why some of us have been beating the drum louder and louder that theatrical is not coming back anytime soon if ever.

 

[TalkingHead]

What do adult audiences want? Human emotion, clever writing, and economical filmmaking would be a start. I like George Miller as much as the next person but 2.5 hrs of post-apocalyptic mayhem sounds like it might get tiresome. Especially when opinions seem split on how successfully the movie pulls it off.

 

[Prince-1]

With Furiosa underperforming it is just more proof that the way people are seeing movies has changed.

 

[Casper Gutman]

It should be noted that the stories in the trade press about the awful box office this weekend note that Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes is the only summer release to meet expectations. Also, worth repeating...

Disney Pixar’s ‘Inside Out 2’ Poised To Be Highest Opening Of 2024 YTD With $80M-$85M – Box Office Early Look

Disney/Pixar's Inside Out 2 came on tracking this AM and sources are telling us it's bound to be the highest opening at the domestic box office year-to-date, inching out Dune Part Two ($82.5M) and Godzilla X Kong: The New Empire ($80M) with a 3-day between $80M-$85M.

deadline.com

Box Office: ‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ First-Day Ticket Sales Set R-Rated Record, Climb to $8M-$9M

The Ryan Reynolds-Hugh Jackman superhero pic doesn't even open for another two months.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

I suspect this thread will become more willing to acknowledge general box office trends and not try to pretend the issue is individual companies now that the latter pretense would mean that Disney is doing something right and other studios aren't. (The issue has always been and remains broad trends).

 

[DKampy]

Has Mad Max ever been a hot franchise you can bank on…I liked Furiosa… But I go weekly and open minded about any genre if it’s good… However Mad Max has always felt more like a film with a cult following… I am a Gen xer who grew up in the 80’s and I don’t ever remember a Mad Max film putting up blockbuster numbers… Heck Fury Road was beat by a Pitch Perfect sequel… I feel like people overestimated the pull of a Mad Max film

 

[Disney Irish]

What do adult audiences want? Human emotion, clever writing, and economical filmmaking would be a start. I like George Miller as much as the next person but 2.5 hrs of post-apocalyptic mayhem sounds like it might get tiresome. Especially when opinions seem split on how successfully the movie pulls it off.

I can pretty much guarantee that a majority of movie going adults don't care one bit about economical film making.

 

[TalkingHead]

Pitch Perfect sequel made $70m in one weekend in 2015. That’s the kind of business Hollywood sacrificed in order to compete with Netflix. So good job?

 

[LittleBuford]

I am shocked - only because I think it's such a lovely film and can't fathom someone finding it boring

Bing Bong has me in floods of tears every time.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Bing Bong has me in floods of tears every time.

It’s such a beautiful, funny, sweet, emotional, nostalgic, and intimate film. Love.

 

[Disney Irish]

Unless something changes tomorrow, Furiosa is looking like it may come in under $30M domestic for the holiday weekend. Not good at all....

Also Kingdom of Apes should hit $300M WW by tomorrow. So far it seems to be the only summer hit until Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and Wolverine come out.

 

[Disney Irish]

After ‘Furiosa’ Misfires, When Will Summer Movie Season Rebound?

'Furiosa' didn't live up to the hype of 'Max Max: Fury Road,' as evidenced by its box office debut.

variety.com

 

[Casper Gutman]

Unless something changes tomorrow, Furiosa is looking like it may come in under $30M domestic for the holiday weekend. Not good at all....

Also Kingdom of Apes should hit $300M WW by tomorrow. So far it seems to be the only summer hit until Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and Wolverine come out.

A genuine shame about Furiosa (and Fall Guy… and Dungeons and Dragons… and a bunch of other good movies).

To be fair, don’t forget Despicable Me 4 - that will hit.

 

[Disney Irish]

A genuine shame about Furiosa (and Fall Guy… and Dungeons and Dragons… and a bunch of other good movies).

To be fair, don’t forget Despicable Me 4 - that will hit.

Yes DM4 too, but after this year I'm not even sure that would be a "hit". Tracking hasn't even really started on it yet and its a little over a month away. And I don't see many trades even talking about it in terms of being a potential summer hit. So we'll see, I hope it does well for the overall box office, but won't be surprised if it falls short too.

 

[celluloid]

Garfield really just performed opening weekend superior to any family film Disney has had in recent years including Wish and Elemental.

It will be interesting to see how Fall Guy does with its little legs that may hang a bit. It is not as dire as Wish, Madame Webb, Haunted Mansion or The Marvels Situation for big budget meh comparison

A rougher time for Inside Out 2 to open between Garfield if it holds for a bit and Despicable Me after.

 

[Disney Irish]

Garfield really just performed opening weekend superior to any family film Disney has had in recent years including Wish and Elemental.

It will be interesting to see how Fall Guy does with its little legs that may hang a bit. It is not as dire as Wish, Madame Webb, Haunted Mansion or The Marvels Situation for big budget meh comparison

A rougher time for Inside Out 2 to open between Garfield if it holds for a bit and Despicable Me after.

Fall Guy is already on digital, so whatever legs it had probably got cutout from underneath it.

 

[BrianLo]

Yes DM4 too, but after this year I'm not even sure that would be a "hit". Tracking hasn't even really started on it yet and its a little over a month away. And I don't see many trades even talking about it in terms of being a potential summer hit. So we'll see, I hope it does well for the overall box office, but won't be surprised if it falls short too.

Minions 2 did quite well in the 'post-pandemic' box office world (summer 2022). So I'd be very surprised if it completely underperformed all of a sudden in 2024.

I was getting suspicious that animated family moving going was completely broken by streaming, but Inside Out 2 prospects seem to be calming that down.

Though the expectations on DM4 would be quite high. It will be a disappointment for them and show signs of fatigue if it's not clearing 750-800 million as it's a pretty consistent franchise for them to hit around a billion.

 

[LittleBuford]

Garfield really just performed opening weekend superior to any family film Disney has had in recent years including Wish and Elemental.

Actually, The Little Mermaid did much better during its opening weekend (also a Memorial Day weekend) last year: $118.6 million as opposed to Garfield’s projected $32 million.