Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

A genuine shame about Furiosa (and Fall Guy… and Dungeons and Dragons… and a bunch of other good movies).

To be fair, don’t forget Despicable Me 4 - that will hit.

Yes DM4 too, but after this year I'm not even sure that would be a "hit". Tracking hasn't even really started on it yet and its a little over a month away. And I don't see many trades even talking about it in terms of being a potential summer hit. So we'll see, I hope it does well for the overall box office, but won't be surprised if it falls short too.

 

[celluloid]

Garfield really just performed opening weekend superior to any family film Disney has had in recent years including Wish and Elemental.

It will be interesting to see how Fall Guy does with its little legs that may hang a bit. It is not as dire as Wish, Madame Webb, Haunted Mansion or The Marvels Situation for big budget meh comparison

A rougher time for Inside Out 2 to open between Garfield if it holds for a bit and Despicable Me after.

 

[Disney Irish]

Garfield really just performed opening weekend superior to any family film Disney has had in recent years including Wish and Elemental.

It will be interesting to see how Fall Guy does with its little legs that may hang a bit. It is not as dire as Wish, Madame Webb, Haunted Mansion or The Marvels Situation for big budget meh comparison

A rougher time for Inside Out 2 to open between Garfield if it holds for a bit and Despicable Me after.

Fall Guy is already on digital, so whatever legs it had probably got cutout from underneath it.

 

[BrianLo]

Yes DM4 too, but after this year I'm not even sure that would be a "hit". Tracking hasn't even really started on it yet and its a little over a month away. And I don't see many trades even talking about it in terms of being a potential summer hit. So we'll see, I hope it does well for the overall box office, but won't be surprised if it falls short too.

Minions 2 did quite well in the 'post-pandemic' box office world (summer 2022). So I'd be very surprised if it completely underperformed all of a sudden in 2024.

I was getting suspicious that animated family moving going was completely broken by streaming, but Inside Out 2 prospects seem to be calming that down.

Though the expectations on DM4 would be quite high. It will be a disappointment for them and show signs of fatigue if it's not clearing 750-800 million as it's a pretty consistent franchise for them to hit around a billion.

 

[LittleBuford]

Garfield really just performed opening weekend superior to any family film Disney has had in recent years including Wish and Elemental.

Actually, The Little Mermaid did much better during its opening weekend (also a Memorial Day weekend) last year: $118.6 million as opposed to Garfield’s projected $32 million.

 

[DKampy]

Unless something changes tomorrow, Furiosa is looking like it may come in under $30M domestic for the holiday weekend. Not good at all....

Also Kingdom of Apes should hit $300M WW by tomorrow. So far it seems to be the only summer hit until Inside Out 2 and Deadpool and Wolverine come out.

I am not a fan but a question mark for me is the next Bad Boys film… It will not be a billion dollar movie like Inside Out and Deadpool has the potential to…but I could see it being an Apes size hit… the last one did better than I thought it would and right now it is tracking to open between 50 and 70

 

[Communicora]

Has Mad Max ever been a hot franchise you can bank on…I liked Furiosa… But I go weekly and open minded about any genre if it’s good… However Mad Max has always felt more like a film with a cult following… I am a Gen xer who grew up in the 80’s and I don’t ever remember a Mad Max film putting up blockbuster numbers… Heck Fury Road was beat by a Pitch Perfect sequel… I feel like people overestimated the pull of a Mad Max film

Right? I don't think it's a bankable IP like some others. The effects also look pretty bad compared to the earlier films in the series. The CGI was terrible in the trailer.

 

[DKampy]

Right? I don't think it's a bankable IP like some others. The effects also look pretty bad compared to the earlier films in the series. The CGI was terrible in the trailer.

Agreed…for a movie that touted the practical effects I could practically see the green screen in some scenes

 

[brideck]

Minions 2 did quite well in the 'post-pandemic' box office world (summer 2022). So I'd be very surprised if it completely underperformed all of a sudden in 2024.

Minions 2 had the viral benefit of youngsters going out to see it all gussied up. I'm not sure that sort of thing will be recreated here.

The Rise of #Gentleminions: Why Gen-Z Is Wearing Suits to See ‘Minions: The Rise of Gru’

#Gentleminions, a new trend on TikTok involving wearing suits to see "Minions: The Rise of Gru," exploded over the film's opening weekend.

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

I am not a fan but a question mark for me is the next Bad Boys film… It will not be a billion dollar movie like Inside Out and Deadpool has the potential to…but I could see it being an Apes size hit… the last one did better than I thought it would and right now it is tracking to open between 50 and 70

The issue with Bad Boys is this will be the first one post-slap for Will Smith. It’s unknown how audiences will react to a new movie of his, we’re about to find out.

 

[celluloid]

Actually, The Little Mermaid did much better during its opening weekend (also a Memorial Day weekend) last year: $118.6 million as opposed to Garfield’s projected $32 million.

Good point. My mind was on animated, and I typed family.

 

[celluloid]

Minions 2 did quite well in the 'post-pandemic' box office world (summer 2022). So I'd be very surprised if it completely underperformed all of a sudden in 2024.

I was getting suspicious that animated family moving going was completely broken by streaming, but Inside Out 2 prospects seem to be calming that down.

Though the expectations on DM4 would be quite high. It will be a disappointment for them and show signs of fatigue if it's not clearing 750-800 million as it's a pretty consistent franchise for them to hit around a billion.

It is the sixth movie with Minions in it. I don't think fatigue is avoidable and I don't necessarily thinking it not hitting 1, 2 or 3 means it is a disappointment.

Still plenty bankable.

 

[DKampy]

The issue with Bad Boys is this will be the first one post-slap for Will Smith. It’s unknown how audiences will react to a new movie of his, we’re about to find out.

That is the reason I said it is a question in my head…although I think most people tend to have short term memories

 

[Disney Irish]

That is the reason I said it is a question in my head…although I think most people tend to have short term memories

Celebrity scandals are different though, when a celebrity breaks the public trust it tends to take a long time before their image is rehabilitated and the public is willing to forgive and trust them again. Its why PR firms exist in the first place, to ensure that any scandal is either squashed ahead of time or spun in the favor of the celebrity when it happens.

So we'll see if the audience has forgiven Will.

 

[Chicken Little]

Pitch Perfect sequel made $70m in one weekend in 2015. That’s the kind of business Hollywood sacrificed in order to compete with Netflix. So good job?

Crazy that pitch perfect 2 made more money on its opening weekend than the first one did in its whole domestic run.

 

[DKampy]

Celebrity scandals are different though, when a celebrity breaks the public trust it tends to take a long time before their image is rehabilitated and the public is willing to forgive and trust them again. Its why PR firms exist in the first place, to ensure that any scandal is either squashed ahead of time or spun in the favor of the celebrity when it happens.

So we'll see if the audience has forgiven Will.

Oh I definitely could see Audiences turning away… especially on Will… as he had some negative publicity even before the slap… so it is definitely a wait and see

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh I definitely could see Audiences turning away… especially on Will… as he had some negative publicity even before the slap… so it is definitely a wait and see

Yep, especially since this is the first theatrical release post-slap. I don't envy his publicist right now.

 

[BrianLo]

It is the sixth movie with Minions in it. I don't think fatigue is avoidable and I don't necessarily thinking it not hitting 1, 2 or 3 means it is a disappointment.

Still plenty bankable.

Ya that’s the reason I gave that parameter. I think a reduction to 750 million is totally fine, maybe expected. It will still make oodles of money at 500 million, but that would be quite a precipitous drop and would surely be disappointing for them.

I have no real reason to personally think it won’t hit up there, though it seems other posters are more negative on its prospects.

 

[TP2000]

Hi, gang. I hope everyone had a great Memorial Day Weekend! I learned yesterday, the hard way, that a vinegar pre-soak is needed to take out BBQ sauce stains from white linen shorts.

Here's the Box Office thru Sunday, although today's numbers to be reported will outperform the average Monday obviously. It was a rather miserable holiday weekend at the Box Office. The Top 5 movies had a combined box office of about $86 Million, compared to the $150 Million that last year's Memorial Day Weekend Top 5 box office produced.

So far, nothing is getting Americans out in droves to the theaters yet this summer.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

Has Mad Max ever been a hot franchise you can bank on…I liked Furiosa… But I go weekly and open minded about any genre if it’s good… However Mad Max has always felt more like a film with a cult following…

Good question. I don't remember seeing the Mad Max movies in the 80's, just not my scene then or now, so I had to Google up the franchise.

There's only 4 movies, that came after the surprise hit from the low budget first movie. For this latest reboot, according to the articles Google provided there's pushback from fans that they turned Mad Max into a movie about a girl.

Here's how the five movies stack up at the box office, adjusted for inflation. The '24 version with the girl in it looks like it's going to do less than half the box office that the '15 reboot sequel did at the domestic and global box office.

Movie Comparison: Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (2024) vs. Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) vs. Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome (1985) vs. Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior (1981) vs. Mad Max (1979)

Domestic box office comparison between Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (2024) and Mad Max: Fury Road (2015) and Mad Max Beyond Thunderdome (1985) and Mad Max 2: The Road Warrior (1981) and Mad Max (1979)

www.the-numbers.com