Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

If its all fake estimates, and everyone agrees, then what's the point of posting any of it and talking about Disney's box office based on the same fake estimates then other than to air out some silly grievance against Disney?

Because this all really started as people being upset with the notion that TLM, a movie with a 2.3X multiplier and an unusually generous domestic split, was probably within the band of break even a lot earlier than assumed. It was too much to handle for largely ideological reasons.

So the goalposts were shifted that it needed 3X (750 million) in the box office and they've been eagerly running with that misdirect for over a year. The trouble is the math is not mathing - anyone who tries to imply otherwise just has some weird mental hang up that there were a couple of disappointing movies that also probably (not probably, we know they did from the trades and company comments) broke even.

TLM would have made a generous amount of money at 750m, with lots of participation for its actress to boot.

BUT good news, the company followed it up with four massive stinkers - that if the goalposts weren't moved we'd all just more accurately talk about how much those ones really lost instead of playing with the faked goalpost.

 

[BrianLo]

The point is, it will always be off. No one can say their way is more accurate than someone else.

I have vigorously defended and demonstrated a well known rule of thumb. I'm not claiming it's perfect.

I've demonstrably shown it to be more accurate than the one we've had to listen to here for a year - which missed the data we do have quite spectacularly.

Why do we all have a problem with using something demonstrably more accurate...?

 

[erasure fan1]

So if a film costs 30 million to make, it breaks even with a 75 million box office (NOT a 90 million box office as being mis-reported).

I haven't seen that 90mil break even being reported. Of course I'm not online 100% of the time so I could have missed it. And if that's true, yea it's wrong. Almost everything I've seen follows the same formula that you're using. Again, it's an estimated break even point. Is it the end all be all? No absolutely not. It's just funny how it wasn't a problem when talking about Avatar or guardians 3.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

5) The Participation should be zero since there is no profit

I think that profit sharing deals on movies are a thing of the past.

Forrest Gump was just one high profile example that went to court when the studio claimed it didn't make money, despite being a colossal hit.

Anyone with the clout to get a share of revenue today isn't going to play that game. They'll just negotiate a flat percentage to avoid any such issues. Harrison Ford got 0.5% for The Force Awakens for example, just straight from the box office, no mention of profit.

For what that's worth. Still part of the equation, but a movie that loses money could still pay a percentage to talent.

 

[BrianLo]

I haven't seen that 90mil break even being reported. Of course I'm not online 100% of the time so I could have missed it. And if that's true, yea it's wrong. Almost everything I've seen follows the same formula that you're using. Again, it's an estimated break even point. Is it the end all be all? No absolutely not. It's just funny how it wasn't a problem when talking about Avatar or guardians 3.

I started with this when TP said the break even for Apes 9 was 460 million or 3x its production cost. Or that Deadpool 3 would have a break even of 750 million or 3x its production cost.

That's kind of how we got here as a woah-woah, those movies would actually be quite successful in those ranges.

I actually did take issue with Guardians 3 a few pages back and said the profit on that was also being miscalculated. As I did Barbie. The threshold for the films starting to break even was way too high, so their take home profits were also significant underestimated. Even after paying their actors handsomely.

 

[BrianLo]

I think that profit sharing deals on movies are a thing of the past.

Forrest Gump was just one high profile example that went to court when the studio claimed it didn't make money, despite being a colossal hit.

Anyone with the clout to get a share of revenue today isn't going to play that game. They'll just negotiate a flat percentage to avoid any such issues. Harrison Ford got 0.5% for The Force Awakens for example, just straight from the box office, no mention of profit.

For what that's worth. Still part of the equation, but a movie that loses money could still pay a percentage to talent.

Ya that's fair, I think there are still thresholds too. The movies that tank don't seem to pay participation generally though (Harrison got none for Indy 5). Nothing for Marvels, Flash, Wish or Haunted Mansion. Big payouts for Guardians 3, Mario and a massive one for Barbie though.

I have a suspicion the deal Harrison made with Force Awakens was more on the exception than the rule end of things. Probably why it was talked about.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Here’s the thing: we don’t know; we won’t know. None of us are in the biz. None of our numbers or multipliers matter at all.

If you try to figure out my business, I’ll be quick to tell you: you’re not in my business. You’re wrong. You’ll never know all the intricacies and nuances. Guess all you want, it makes no difference.

None of us are in the business of making movies. The end.

Either numbers are announced or not. If not, we don’t know them.

Nope. We don’t.

Nope. Still don’t.

 

[TP2000]

I started with this when TP said the break even for Apes 9 was 460 million or 3x its production cost. Or that Deadpool 3 would have a break even of 750 million or 3x its production cost.

To be fair, I said 460 Million-ish, because it all depends on the box office split of domestic vs. overseas. But that was before Variety reported that Apes 9 budget was actually $160 Million, as earlier reports pegged it lower than that.

Apes 9 has had poor legs this past week and needs a strong weekend globally to put it back on a trajectory to its breakeven of $460-ish Million from the global box office.

Based on the newer information that Apes 9 had a production budget of $160 Million, my math shows this...

Apes 9: Production $160 Million + Assumed Marketing $80 Million + 50% Take of Global Box Office = $480 Million Breakeven

The breakeven can be refined further when you give Disney a 60% cut of the domestic box office, but only a 40% cut of the overseas box office. Which is why a film that over-indexes overseas but does comparatively poorly in the USA, like Elemental did, has a harder time breaking even regardless of its strong overseas box office.

But as I understand it, the model @BrianLo likes to use that's a 2.5X the production budget, the break even for Apes 9 would only be $400 Million, That seems less accurate when so many of Disney's movies are screened widely overseas. And like Elemental showed, that overseas box office can make or break a film getting to a profit.

 

[TP2000]

Speaking of Apes 9, it doesn't look like it is going to get to either one of its breakeven thresholds; $400 Million or $480 Million.

Going into Memorial Day Weekend when several new movies come out, Apes 9 has $244 Million from the global box office but has what the industry refers to as "Poor Legs" and is facing an uphill battle to profitability at this time. Here's the data as of May 23rd...

But not to worry, monkey fans... I've got a holiday sociable to go to later this weekend. I'm not exactly sure how it will help ticket sales, but I'll be sure to ask the cute girl to do the Monkey with me when the band leader plays the right song!

It's Monkey Time kids, and Apes 9 needs all the help it can get at the box office!

 

[Disney Irish]

I haven't seen that 90mil break even being reported. Of course I'm not online 100% of the time so I could have missed it. And if that's true, yea it's wrong. Almost everything I've seen follows the same formula that you're using. Again, it's an estimated break even point. Is it the end all be all? No absolutely not. It's just funny how it wasn't a problem when talking about Avatar or guardians 3.

TP made that claim about First Omen needing $90M to breakeven back in April. It was wrong then and wrong now, and TP has never really corrected it even after @BrianLo pointed it out.

Variety has now stated The First Omen had a production budget of $30 Million, so we can use that lower figure now confidently. If we assume it had a shoestring global marketing budget of $15 Million, The First Omen will need roughly $90 Million at the global box office to break even.

It's opening weekend is trending well below forecasts, even though it's reviews are good. It will be interesting to see where The First Omen lands for the weekend; will it break $10 Million in its domestic opening weekend?

Box Office: ‘Godzilla x Kong’ Staying on Top, ‘Monkey Man’ Swings Into Second and ‘The First Omen’ Gets Crossed Up

"Godzilla x Kong" is facing a sharp drop in its second weekend at the box office, but will stay ahead of the openings of "Monkey Man" and "The First Omen."

variety.com

"Landing a less auspicious debut is “The First Omen,” which earned $3.2 million across Friday and preview screenings. Projections heading into the weekend had pegged an opening north of $14 million; now, it seems the release from 20th Century Studios (owned by Disney) will be lucky to even hit $10 million."

.

 

[erasure fan1]

I think where everyone is running afoul is that they are pretending like they accurately know the marketing costs - and we really don't. It's not that a 2.5X rule ignores that, it just comes out in the wash - it's baked into the presumption.

I don't think most of us are. Some? maybe. It has always been a guess with marketing. It does get reported occasionally but it's a much more difficult number to nail down. I specifically remember having conversations saying that if a movie that's plus or minus by let's say 10/15mil, it could go either way. But when we get a indy, wish, strange world... It's pretty obvious it didn't make it. They still could, eventually, most don't dispute that from what I've seen.

 

[TP2000]

Are we all ready for Memorial Day Weekend, gang? Being a big holiday weekend, we won't know the full weekend Box Office for the weekend until next Tuesday, but here's how the Thursday previews looked.

This should give us a good idea how this weekend will pan out. Yesterday, Apes 9 fell to 4th place. How many of its 4,075 theaters will it keep this weekend I wonder?

The Numbers - Daily Box Office Chart for Friday August 29, 2025

Daily Domestic Box Office Chart for Friday August 29, 2025

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BrianLo]

Apes 9: Production $160 Million + Assumed Marketing $80 Million + 50% Take of Global Box Office = $480 Million Breakeven

The breakeven can be refined further when you give Disney a 60% cut of the domestic box office, but only a 40% cut of the overseas box office. Which is why a film that over-indexes overseas but does comparatively poorly in the USA, like Elemental did, has a harder time breaking even regardless of its strong overseas box office.

But as I understand it, the model @BrianLo likes to use that's a 2.5X the production budget, the break even for Apes 9 would only be $400 Million, That seems less accurate when so many of Disney's movies are screened widely overseas. And like Elemental showed, that overseas box office can make or break a film getting to a profit.

I think I might try and explain it a different way. My issue is not your removal of back end revenue, it's that you are using full costing and not back end revenue simultaneously.

It would be more fair to say Apes 9 has a 160 Million budget and 40 million marketing campaign dedicated towards the movies theatrical run/opening. The rest of the marketing campaign is for the back end. In fact much of it is spent after the movie is in theatres. If you don't include those sources of revenue, you shouldn't include those costs for that window.

If you calculate it by that means, your box office breakeven threshold will actually work.

Before you say 'just wait a minute' - the marketing campaigns can and do end. If a movie fails out a gate they stop the marketing as much as possible. If it's highly successful, they lean into the marketing more. But it's basically budgeted for a floor. If you report the numbers and calculate like that, your math will work.

 

[BrianLo]

Going into Memorial Day Weekend when several new movies come out, Apes 9 has $244 Million from the global box office but has what the industry refers to as "Poor Legs" and is facing an uphill battle to profitability at this time. Here's the data as of May 23rd...

I notice you keep leaving out the International trajectory and only report the domestic.

The hold was 35% in International markets last weekend if anyone cares to know.

 

[TP2000]

I notice you keep leaving out the International trajectory and only report the domestic.

The hold was 35% in International markets last weekend if anyone cares to know.

That's an issue with The Numbers website. They only do that Legs Graph thing for Domestic box office. I don't actually make these graphs, I'm just cutting and pasting from that website I link to. The yellow highlighting is all me though, and it's about as artistic as I ever get, as I have no talent for that at all.

Do you know a website that has a graph that shows Overseas Box Office as a Legs Graph? I'd love to see one if you do!

Here's how Apes 9 is faring on the Legs Graph (not sure that's what it is supposed to be called, but too late, I'm going with it!) as of yesterday, going into the Memorial Day Weekend.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[BrianLo]

That's an issue with The Numbers website. They only do that Legs Graph thing for Domestic box office. I don't actually make these graphs, I'm just cutting and pasting from that website I link to. The yellow highlighting is all me though, and it's about as artistic as I ever get, as I have no talent for that at all.

Do you know a website that has a graph that shows Overseas Box Office as a Legs Graph? I'd love to see one if you do!

Here's how Apes 9 is faring on the Legs Graph (not sure that's what it is supposed to be called, but too late, I'm going with it!) as of yesterday, going into the Memorial Day Weekend.

View attachment 787434

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) - Box Office and Financial Information

Financial analysis of Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (2024) including production budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports.

www.the-numbers.com

I don’t, but you can just mentally average the two for simplicity. It’s a fairly normal trend, but international seems to be doing the legwork.

Though on the flip side it got a terrible CinemaScore of a B. Which implies the legs should be even worse.

 

[BrianLo]

I saw Furiosa, which was quite good!

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Deadline predicting $31-$35 million 4-day opening for Furiosa, and about the same for Garfield.

 

[Miss Rori]

Deadline predicting $31-$35 million 4-day opening for Furiosa, and about the same for Garfield.

That's disappointing for everybody, especially given how good the Furiosa reviews have been - with the caveat that Fury Road wasn't an MCU-sized hit back in the day, and made much of its money internationally, so there may have been too much enthusiasm for this one to be a megahit. But it really seems few people want to head out to the movies this holiday weekend; The Little Mermaid remake did $118.8 million last year for the 4-day!

I really do wonder what's going to break this early summer streak of disappointments. With virtually every tentpole release for the rest of the year a franchise extension of some sort, which is precisely what people are getting tired of unless it's fairly kid-friendly (apparently that really helped Godzilla X Kong) or something really spectacular (Dune Part Two), there's no obvious candidate for that "honor".

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I really do wonder what's going to break this early summer streak of disappointments.

Inside Out 2 or Despicable Me 4.

At least one of those will do well.