Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[seabreezept813]

Alot of my Disney fanatic friends I know are doing beach vacations this year - cheaper to rent a house and split the costs and still have fun.

We love Disney and I can't wait to go back. But for the first time, we went to Florida just for the beach. We stayed at the Hilton Fort Lauderdale right on the beach and spent about 1/4 of what a Disney trip would cost. Realistically, we won't get back to Disney for at least 2-3 years because we need the time to save. Vacations don't come out of our regular finances and we don't charge them. I put money aside from my extra odd jobs like cafeteria duty or coaching. If Disney starts offering some incredible deals like they've done in the past, then they'll have our business sooner.
When it wants to Disney can be a bargain. I had a small 10 person wedding in 2013 on the Boardwalk and it was crazy cheap as far as weddings go. We spent an average of 10,000 for a 9 day Disney vaca for 3 (stepdaughter included) and a wedding. This included flight, dress, photography, etc. Average big weddings up in MA run my friends about 40,000 sometimes more, so this was affordable, especially seeing I paid for it.
Long story short, Disney is capable of offering prices that are manageable for families. Right now, they are choosing not to and I think it's not working for them.

 

[wdisney9000]

Wow. I wish I could just move on from your comment, unfortunately it's too ridiculous not to address.
Yes, I "only" have 2 people to pay for. Myself, a child- and all of the expenses that come with being one person trying to do everything- getting them to private school, sports, childcare for the 55+ hours per week that I work, someone to cook dinner while I am at work, and much more.

If you can't understand what that entails, then I don't know what to say, except- I hope you never have to fully understand.

My family is a family, the same as any other. And guess what- I don't cry about something being too expensive for us. I either do it or I don't. It has nothing to do with what another family spends, or how many people are in said family.
But FYI- a family of 4 could do Disney for less than we do as 2. A lot less. Our hotel stay alone at Poly was @ 5k, before anything else, and then followed by a week in Key West Florida at the Casa Marina. So stop with a ridiculous statement that "you ONLY have 2, so it costs less than 4".

People travel differently. One has nothing to do with the other. It's why Disney offers so many different types of vacation price points and experiences.

This isn't about comparing what one family spends to another.

For starters, calm down. I didnt mean to offend you with my post, although I should have expected it seeing how you were offended prior by another persons very mild response. Who was crying about it being too expensive? I was pointing out that rising prices (RESORT WIDE) have gotten a bit silly. I used my brother as a reference because they vacation the same way every trip. They stay at the same resort, for the same length of time, and mostly eat the same meals and do the same character meals, etc. So ya, 4 people costs MORE than 2 people if all things are equal, which is what I meant. Regardless of whether you stay at the Poly, or at Pop Century, the prices have risen across the board. Your same stay at the Poly for $5k probly would have cost about $3k about 5-7 years ago. Thats all I was trying to say. Now start smashing your keyboard as you type out your offended resposne. ARGH!!!!!!!

 

[SorcererMC]

Wow. I wish I could just move on from your comment, unfortunately it's too ridiculous not to address.
Yes, I "only" have 2 people to pay for. Myself, a child- and all of the expenses that come with being one person trying to do everything- getting them to private school, sports, childcare for the 55+ hours per week that I work, someone to cook dinner while I am at work, and much more.

If you can't understand what that entails, then I don't know what to say, except- I hope you never have to fully understand.

My family is a family, the same as any other. And guess what- I don't cry about something being too expensive for us. I either do it or I don't. It has nothing to do with what another family spends, or how many people are in said family.
But FYI- a family of 4 could do Disney for less than we do as 2. A lot less. Our hotel stay alone at Poly was @ 5k, before anything else, and then followed by a week in Key West Florida at the Casa Marina. So stop with a ridiculous statement that "you ONLY have 2, so it costs less than 4".

People travel differently. One has nothing to do with the other. It's why Disney offers so many different types of vacation price points and experiences.

This isn't about comparing what one family spends to another.

As far as comparing Disney to a beach vacation- they aren't the same thing. So it's not a comparison. If you choose to do a beach vacation- great!! They're wonderful! But I don't compare those 2 against each other. I decide what kind of vacation I want, and then go from there.

I hope this comes across the right way, insofar as msg on a forum will allow. It's not personal. I am more or less in the same boat as you, but you must understand that your experience is an outlier? By that, I mean at least 2 standard deviations from the norm. The median household income in the US has hovered around $45,000, with about 2/3 of those households being dual income (estimating here). I'd venture that nearly all of WDW guests are $45,000+, aside from locals. Most single parent families can only dream of going to WDW, without having to make sacrifices. You are quite fortunate to be able to do so, that is, to have the motivation, means, and opportunity.

And it is true that a larger travel party with more days has those costs distributed per person. It's like if you are single traveler and you book a cabin on a cruise, you're still paying for both.

 

[21stamps]

More anecdotal evidence - same for my brother and his family of 5 (plus grandma) in GA, household income $100,000+, walking away not feeling like there was enough value for the money, and regularly spends vacation in the Caribbean.

It's not evidence though. I could name 10 people that have gone to Disney this year- and love it. No one likes their prices, everyone does probably have that in common.

But if I ask 10 people if they like salmon- and 7 say yes.
Now you ask 10 people if they like salmon- 4 say yes.
Does this mean salmon is bad?
Or does it just mean that people like different things?

Value is subjective, on that point we should all agree.
Subjectivity doesn't equal "evidence" of something.

At the end of the day each family makes a personal decision to do what they want, and nothing is wrong with whatever they choose. Life would be quite boring if we all wanted to go the exact same place at the exact same time, right?

 

[SorcererMC]

It's not evidence though. I could name 10 people that have gone to Disney this year- and love it. No one likes their prices, everyone does probably have that in common.

But if I ask 10 people if they like salmon- and 7 say yes.
Now you ask 10 people if they like salmon- 4 say yes.
Does this mean salmon is bad?
Or does it just mean that people like different things?

Value is subjective, on that point we should all agree.
Subjectivity doesn't equal "evidence" of something.

At the end of the day each family makes a personal decision to do what they want, and nothing is wrong with whatever they choose. Life would be quite boring if we all wanted to go the exact same place at the exact same time, right?

The anecdotal evidence I wrote fits the profile of families traveling to FL. I am not talking about an individual's personal decision, I'm looking at the broader trends of what is happening in an economic context. Your personal situation or circumstance may differ.

 

[21stamps]

For starters, calm down. I didnt mean to offend you with my post, although I should have expected it seeing how you were offended prior by another persons very mild response. Who was crying about it being too expensive? I was pointing out that rising prices (RESORT WIDE) have gotten a bit silly. I used my brother as a reference because they vacation the same way every trip. They stay at the same resort, for the same length of time, and mostly eat the same meals and do the same character meals, etc. So ya, 4 people costs MORE than 2 people if all things are equal, which is what I meant. Regardless of whether you stay at the Poly, or at Pop Century, the prices have risen across the board. Your same stay at the Poly for $5k probly would have cost about $3k about 5-7 years ago. Thats all I was trying to say. Now start smashing your keyboard as you type out your offended resposne. ARGH!!!!!!!

I think comparing a family of 4 against a family of 2- when not comparing apples to apples is just, ignorant. Especially assuming how someone else travels. Not offensive though.
I also don't go through life comparing what things cost me 5-7 years ago. Why? Because it is completely irrelevant to what I have to pay today. Life is more fun when you don't always look in the rear view mirror. Try it sometime

The anecdotal evidence I wrote fits the profile of families traveling to FL. I am not talking about an individual's personal decision, I'm looking at the broader trends of what is happening in an economic context. Your personal situation or circumstance may differ.

And my 'anecdotal evidence" is the same profile of travelers, and they still go to Disney. You're not wrong. I'm not wrong. Neither of us have 'evidence' of anything besides the fact that different people make different decisions.

 

[The Mom]

Totally agree with this. My kids are 4 and 1 respectively. They are prime Disney age for a few more years. My 4 y/o already wants to go on more thrill rides. Eventually a family's time at Disney progresses into time at Universal.

As for me, I went through the same progression as you mentioned. I came back to Disney for the nostalgia of being a kid and then I had my own kids. But yes, one day in the future we will be frequenting Universal more I'm sure, unless Disney builds a few more thrill rides.

And then progresses to no time, or very little, at any theme park. Until the grandchildren come along, that is. Then repeat the cycle.

 

[MattM]

So do you guys think the current smaller crowds are a backlash of the recent shootings, the higher tier prices which were designed to shift the crowds, and/or all the major refurbs in progress? I remember reading people on here saying last year when the new tier prices were announced on top of the refurbs people were saying they'd be taking a break from disney for a while. Just curious.

Way to early for the attack in Orlando to have an effect. Price increases probably factor in. Wage growth, underemployment, election uncertainty (My God, we have to choose between Trump and Clinton), Brazilian recession; this all plays into it. The economy is not in as nearly good shape as the people on TV would have you believe.

 

[MattM]

Sales are up 44% while profits are up 157%!

Bob Iger and his stock options thank you very much for paying those much higher ticket prices.

So does @ParentsOf4 because we know he backed the truck up on $DIS in 09

 

[SorcererMC]

Way to early for the attack in Orlando to have an effect. Price increases probably factor in. Wage growth, underemployment, election uncertainty (My God, we have to choose between Trump and Clinton), Brazilian recession; this all plays into it. The economy is not in as nearly good shape as the people on TV would have you believe.

I'll just say here that if people want to know what is happening with the US economy, without media bias and without political spin, to check out the blogs and websites of the regional Federal Reserve banks (eg NY, Atlanta, San Francisco, Cleveland, etc.)

 

[SorcererMC]

And my 'anecdotal evidence" is the same profile of travelers, and they still go to Disney. You're not wrong. I'm not wrong. Neither of us have 'evidence' of anything besides the fact that different people make different decisions.

I think we disagree on what constitutes evidence and I'm not going to bicker any further than I already have. No worries.

 

[21stamps]

I hope this comes across the right way, insofar as msg on a forum will allow. It's not personal. I am more or less in the same boat as you, but you must understand that your experience is an outlier? By that, I mean at least 2 standard deviations from the norm. The median household income in the US has hovered around $45,000, with about 2/3 of those households being dual income (estimating here). I'd venture that nearly all of WDW guests are $45,000+, aside from locals. Most single parent families can only dream of going to WDW, without having to make sacrifices. You are quite fortunate to be able to do so, that is, to have the motivation, means, and opportunity.

And it is true that a larger travel party with more days has those costs distributed per person. It's like if you are single traveler and you book a cabin on a cruise, you're still paying for both.

Good example. That's actually the main reason I waited until age 6 to take my son on a cruise. I just couldn't justify the rate when I knew he would barely eat anything. It's the same at all inclusive resorts. Drives me absolutely nuts that I'm paying an adult for a small child who doesn't eat much and definitely isn't drinking the included alcohol!!
I know there are other adults who do cruise alone with their child before that age, and are willing to pay for it. I don't think they're wrong for that- I just wasn't willing to.

 

[MattM]

I'll just say here that if people want to know what is happening with the US economy, without media bias and without political spin, to check out the blogs and websites of the regional Federal Reserve banks (eg NY, Atlanta, San Francisco, Cleveland, etc.)

Yes. If you read it you would not spend any money on a Disney vacation either.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

Because it is completely irrelevant to what I have to pay today. Life is more fun when you don't always look in the rear view mirror. Try it sometime
.

For someone who seems permanently offended by one thing or another, you apparently dont mind being a patronising individual.

Probably the dust.

 

[SorcererMC]

Yes. If you read it you would not spend any money on a Disney vacation either.

I've been avoiding Orlando 2013-15 for personal reasons but hope to go back next summer. And I do take into consideration econ trends when deciding where to spend my vaca dollars.

 

[MattM]

I've been avoiding Orlando 2013-15 for personal reasons but hope to go back next summer.

The FED has basically given the economy a highly addictive narcotic to save its life, but has now kept the economy on the drug so long that its addicted. The FED needs to let the economy experience the pain of getting off the drug so that we don't stay an artificially high house of cards. We'll never fully recover until we finish the cycle...naturally.

 

[The Mom]

The fact that the US birthrate has been dropping for the last decade might also be a factor. Fewer small children = fewer guests to WDW?

 

[TikiTorch]

I'll chime in here just to mention that my family of four (kids aged 2 and 1) did six full days from July 1-6. There were only two times crowds seemed light to us: After a 2 hour rain at Epcot on July 2 and after 4:00 at AK on July 4. We purposefully went to AK on the 4th to avoid large crowds, but it seemed quite crowded through early afternoon, at least more than we expected. AK was definitely emptying out after dinner on the 4th; Tusker House had plenty of empty tables at 6:30. Nevertheless, the crowd was huge for the 9:00 Jungle Book show. As for MK, it seemed packed all three days we went. We might not have ridden any rides with the toddlers had it not been for Fastpasses. We visited HS on the 6th and considering how much of that park is closed and the lack of rides for little ones it was more crowded than we expected also. Full houses for Disney Jr, Frozen Singalong, and Beauty and the Beast.

 

[ParentsOf4]

One other thing in regard to public perception of the Disney brand (or BRAND as WDW1974 likes to say, and I might be going far out on a limb here but bear with me) - WDW is out of reach for most middle class Americans. Compare that to TWDC opening their new Shanghai Disneyland, amidst current events - actively courting the Chinese middle and upper class while spurning the American middle class. I can't imagine those optics are going over well (I could be wrong). This NY Times article says that analysts were predicting the recent spate of bad publicity to be immaterial b/c of the current good publicity, and b/c historically companies recover from it.

Bob Iger in a recent 6/22 NY Times article, "At Disney, Gloomy Realities Shadow a Fantasy World":

Robert A. Iger, Disney’s chief executive, alluded to this fascination [public sense of wonder for Disney theme parks - SorcererMC]
as we toured Shanghai Disneyland on June 11. “I grew up in the United States dreaming of going to Disneyland one day — unaffordable for us, by the way, and I didn’t go until I was a parent,” he said. “You now have that same dynamic here in
China that existed in the ’50s and ’60s in the United States, as people started looking for more leisure activities. It’s palpable.”
​

Walt and Roy Disney knew their product, knew who their customers were, and knew what they wanted. Without getting carried away, I think that even Eisner and Wells knew that, too.

I keep getting the feeling that today's Walt Disney Company does not (and is far removed from its legacy despite claims to the contrary).

Maybe there really is more going on with attendance than meets the eye? And if that's the case, the company's response here matters greatly. I see 2017 as pivotal; time will tell.

Quoting from http://www.fampeople.com/cat-bob-iger:

Iger was born to a Jewish [...] family in Long Island, New York. His mother Mimi worked at Boardman Junior High School in Oceanside, New York and his father Arthur was executive vice president and general manager of the Greenvale Marketing Corporation, and a professor of advertising and public relations.​

Really, his father was an "executive vice president and general manager of the Greenvale Marketing Corporation, and a professor of advertising and public relations" living on Long Island and Iger wants us to believe that his family couldn't afford Disneyland?

Recalling that Iger was born in 1951 and would have been of the appropriate age for Disneyland by about 1960, maybe Iger's parents, like many upper middle class families of that time, thought an amusement park was too "common" for them, so saying it was "too expensive" was just something they said to quiet their son.

Or maybe it's just a story Iger tells to the public to justify price hikes.

As I've documented many times, until 1984 WDW and DLR were both eminently affordable for nearly all families.

Come on Iger, I was paying for my own WDW vacations when I was making $3.75/hour as a life guard!

 

[21stamps]

I'll chime in here just to mention that my family of four (kids aged 2 and 1) did six full days from July 1-6. There were only two times crowds seemed light to us: After a 2 hour rain at Epcot on July 2 and after 4:00 at AK on July 4. We purposefully went to AK on the 4th to avoid large crowds, but it seemed quite crowded through early afternoon, at least more than we expected. AK was definitely emptying out after dinner on the 4th; Tusker House had plenty of empty tables at 6:30. Nevertheless, the crowd was huge for the 9:00 Jungle Book show. As for MK, it seemed packed all three days we went. We might not have ridden any rides with the toddlers had it not been for Fastpasses. We visited HS on the 6th and considering how much of that park is closed and the lack of rides for little ones it was more crowded than we expected also. Full houses for Disney Jr, Frozen Singalong, and Beauty and the Beast.

Well, you just crushed my hopes and dreams for low crowds on my own trip.lol
Hope you had a great time even with the crowds!