Crowds are down? Curious about the claims . . .

[DisneyJoe]

Fingers crossed that this is all true and yields either steeper discounts or lower crowds when I go in ~12 months...

Based on my agency's bookings (I own a Disney focused travel agency), as of today we aren't seeing any drop off in Disney bookings for 2016 or 2017, in fact, our 2017 is already on a record pace. Of course, that is only one agency and one data point. YMMV.

 

[rael ramone]

The median Orange county resident annual income is ~$47,000.

(I haven't seen anything that shows what percentage of Orlando theme park visitors are in-state, but just using this to show the discrepancy of incomes).

Orlando's share of FL leisure travel is 43%, and another 17% for a getaway weekend. 'Theme parks' are the main activity for 85% of intl tourists, but only 50% for domestic tourists. For both domestic and intl tourists, ~30% of travel parties include children (naturally, most will go to the theme parks, and I've only seen an approximate statistic that claims that 1/3 of WDW visitors are adults without children, which is important b/c they have more disposable income).

The takeaway - if Orlando tourism is dropping off at the high-end of spending, there is very little room for the local economy to compensate adequately, and the decrease in attendance by intl and domestic visitors will result in a disproportionate decrease in revenue.

One of the reasons the local annual income is so low is the largest corporate employer there, BY FAR, pays a very, very bad wage... which sets the payscale for a HUGE section of the local population.

I've said before: Pay the employees better, the surrounding businesses have to up their pay to compete, then you have a local population with more money to spend on your product....

 

[lentesta]

As I recall, you collect data based on Disney's reported wait times.

Could they be artificially inflating posted wait times more so than in the past?

I mentioned earlier that we don't think so. We also measure actual waits in line, and it's been 70% of the posted wait for both 2015 and 2016.

 

[rob0519]

Do you think more people would spend more if the quality of the product was better?

I don't consider myself "thrifty" as compared to others, but I stopped buying T-Shirts at disney awhile ago.

The cheap T-Shirts they sell don't last long. Over the past 10 years I've puchashed maybe 10 or so T-Shirts, only one has lasted longer than a year or so. Coincidentally its probably the first one i bought.

I stopped spending on most merchandise years ago as well. Yes, we would spend more if their was a greater selection of options and the quality was better. WDW seems to be catering to the "one and done" customer.

 

[jt04]

Here are the major factors as I see it,

Summer Olympic year in South America,

Others delaying for Pandora next year,

Continued weak economic "recovery" for 8 consecutive years.

 

[WondersOfLife]

Here are the major factors as I see it,

Summer Olympic year in South America,

Others delaying for Pandora next year,

Continued weak economic "recovery" for 8 consecutive years.

Recent tragedies occurring everywhere, especially in Orlando.

^^^^
I know most of you don't believe that to be a case of stopping vacations, but I've actually had a lot of friends' families change their vacation plans from Orlando Florida to camping because of what's been shown in the media lately. (And by a lot, I mean like... 3... But that's still quite a percentage when you think about how many people actually ARENT planning trips to Florida? I guess?)

 

[21stamps]

Its pretty fair to compare it to 10 years ago. You're leaving out the fact that in that 10 year span there was a massive recession, yes we've recovered from it, but it did cover a good portion of that 10 year time span. For a long time during that recession, disney continued raising prices while offering very little new things.

I've done the calculations from when my wife and I went on our honeymoon in 2008, that same vacation, exactly the same would have cost us 20%+ more in 2015. That's a massive increase in a short time frame.

Yes we got a great discount in 2009, we got the buy 4 get 3 free plus a $500 gift card, they were almost paying us to go then. Those level of discounts did not continue throughout the recession though.

Which is why I posted the yearly increase of hotels in Palm Beach Fl- same years- same if not more increase in price than Disney. Point- it's all of Florida drastically raising prices in that time span. I also didn't leave out the recession, it was the main point of my post.

Regardless - the Walt Disney company has never been more profitable.
I am lucky. I live in Florida. I am a life long fan and my first trip was in 1972.
I can afford to go. I am choosing not to. For me - this has nothing to do with the economy , gator attacks, mass murder or any other external forces. I suspect I'm not alone.

So that's a personal decision, not an economic factor. That's what I'm saying
I'm so happy that Florida has bounced back as much as it has. Some will never get back to the way it was. But for the most part- it's recovered and thriving...In 2009 I could buy a condo in Downtown WPB for 1/5th of what it was worth. You can't do that today, which is a good thing, it means economically we are doing better- and it means companies will try to capitalize on that.

 

[SorcererMC]

One of the reasons the local annual income is so low is the largest corporate employer there, BY FAR, pays a very, very bad wage... which sets the payscale for a HUGE section of the local population.

I've said before: Pay the employees better, the surrounding businesses have to up their pay to compete, then you have a local population with more money to spend on your product....

Agree 100%. They should be investing in their workforce as well as their parks. Setting a low bar drags down the Central FL economy, without question. When employees are incentivized beyond their own personal work ethic, it can pay back tenfold IMO. I've come to this opinion over time....there is no good reason for wages to have been stagnant for as long as they have. I don't know if that makes me old-fashioned or progressive, but that's how I see it now.

 

[Brad Bishop]

I stopped spending on most merchandise years ago as well. Yes, we would spend more if their was a greater selection of options and the quality was better. WDW seems to be catering to the "one and done" customer.

That's another thing. Disney merchandise use to have some really cool, higher dollar stuff. I remember going to the Disney Stores in the malls and seeing just a bunch of neat things in the windows and in the front section on either side. That was the 1990s.

Sometime in the late 1990s they got away from the fancier/more interesting things and just the Disney Stores turned into just plush, T-shirts, and junk. It's what the Emporium is on Main St.

The only thing that is of interest to me, now, is the stuff in Art of Disney at the parks. A lot of those paintings are cool and they have some miniatures which are pretty neat. That's about it, though. While I like to look at them, after a painting or two that's pretty much it on buying.

When you think about what they're claiming is their target guests, the upper-class, and then you look at what they're offering:
- expensive T-shirt, plush, and junk in their stores/parks
- very expensive sub-par meals
- cuts in service/hours/staff so things don't look as great as they once did

It doesn't really add up. If you're going for the upper end, they'll pay, but they expect high quality products and service and expect to be catered to. Also, of the ones I've known, they're not the kind that like to be nickeled and dimed.

 

[21stamps]

Agree 100%. They should be investing in their workforce as well as their parks. Setting a low bar drags down the Central FL economy, without question. When employees are incentivized beyond their own personal work ethic, it can pay back tenfold IMO. I've come to this opinion over time....there is no good reason for wages to have been stagnant for as long as they have. I don't know if that makes me old-fashioned or progressive, but that's how I see it now.

SHHHHH!!!!!!

If they raise employee pay then we will see another price increase elsewhere.

 

[SorcererMC]

SHHHHH!!!!!!

If they raise employee pay then we will see another price increase elsewhere.

Incentives aren't limited to wage rate, but I take your point.

And they won't be raising employee pay anytime soon - not if/when the overtime rule goes into effect come December.
I'm starting to feel like Debbie Downer b/c the picture I'm cobbling together keeps looking bleaker to me. Disney can adjust to these challenges, but I'm definitely concerned about what that will look like and any sort of prolonged downturn is bad news (common sense).
Edit: I'll throw in the 1Q GDP curse of last ~4 years, too. Disney's growth is outpacing GDP, and they're a year-round destination, but if they haven't recouped the potential losses in 6 months, it could become more difficult later.

 

[ford91exploder]

Agree 100%. They should be investing in their workforce as well as their parks. Setting a low bar drags down the Central FL economy, without question. When employees are incentivized beyond their own personal work ethic, it can pay back tenfold IMO. I've come to this opinion over time....there is no good reason for wages to have been stagnant for as long as they have. I don't know if that makes me old-fashioned or progressive, but that's how I see it now.

The iron law of economics kicks in if you have an unlimited supply of labor (low skill immigration and H2B temporary visas for Mousekeeping and Food & Beverage) wages will decline for workers without specialized skills.

 

[ford91exploder]

Do you think more people would spend more if the quality of the product was better?

I don't consider myself "thrifty" as compared to others, but I stopped buying T-Shirts at disney awhile ago.

The cheap T-Shirts they sell don't last long. Over the past 10 years I've puchashed maybe 10 or so T-Shirts, only one has lasted longer than a year or so. Coincidentally its probably the first one i bought.

I know I would, In the old days in a 2 week trip we would need resort spending limit lifted at least once, Past couple of trips its been hard to spend $6-800 because there is nothing worth buying

 

[SorcererMC]

The iron law of economics kicks in if you have an unlimited supply of labor (low skill immigration and H2B temporary visas for Mousekeeping and Food & Beverage) wages will decline for workers without specialized skills.

Hasn't WDW always had that unlimited supply of labor though? And didn't they used to take much better care of their employees? I'm legitimately asking, although I don't want to start a labor econ war nor get into the politics of those trends.

 

[ford91exploder]

Hasn't WDW always had that unlimited supply of labor though? And didn't they used to take much better care of their employees? I'm legitimately asking, although I don't want to start a labor econ war.

Yes and No, When EPCOT opened they were paying 11/Hr for 'Lot Attendants' and 14Hr for 'General CM's compare that to today, BTW 'Bad Eisner' started the CM compensation cuts in the late 90's

So at those rates Disney had their choice of first rate staff, Now the standard seems to be is 'Breathing and has a Pulse'

 

[peter11435]

Yes and No, When EPCOT opened they were paying 11/Hr for 'Lot Attendants' and 14Hr for 'General CM's compare that to today, BTW 'Bad Eisner' started the CM compensation cuts in the late 90's

So at those rates Disney had their choice of first rate staff, Now the standard seems to be is 'Breathing and has a Pulse'

Do you have any evidence to backup your claim about starting pay?

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

bscuits

 

[RobidaFlats]

Do you have any evidence to backup your claim about starting pay?

I don't claim to have any information regarding ford91explorer's examples, but in 1982 they were advertising for cast members to work in the non-American pavilions for $4.30 per hour which would be $10.70 in 2016 dollars.

Obviously those are different positions and wages than mentioned, but might be of use.

Source: https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=CMNaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=J1kDAAAAIBAJ&pg=3157,1771025

Edited: Grammar

 

[LuvtheGoof]

I don't claim to have any information regarding ford91explorer's examples, but in 1982 they were advertising for cast members to work in the non-American pavilions for $4.30 per hour which would be $10.70 in 2016 dollars.

Obviously those are different positions and wages than mentioned, but might be of use.

Source: https://news.google.com/newspapers?id=CMNaAAAAIBAJ&sjid=J1kDAAAAIBAJ&pg=3157,1771025

Edited: Grammar

You do understand that he just makes stuff up without any proof, right? Your link provided proof that he is wrong, as they are not going to pay one CM $4.30 and another CM at $11 or $14.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

You do understand that he just makes stuff up without any proof, .

I dont think hes unique on that count. Though to some their opinion is fact, apparently.