Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[baymenxpac]

Page 7 seems to contain information that contradicts the proposition that " CDC has found that no adult contacts of infected children in school settings have tested positive "

"The attack rate among household contacts of index cases aged 09 years and 1019 years was 5.3% and 18.6%, respectively, indicating transmission potential in both children and adolescents, and possibly more effective transmission in adolescents than in adults [70]. "

What they did find, though, was that they could not find evidence of children to adult transmission within the schools (page 12):

"In summary, where COVID-19 in children was detected and contacts followed-up, no adult contacts in the school setting have been detected as SARS-CoV-2 positive during the follow-up period. The conclusion from these investigations is that children are not the primary drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to adults in the school setting."

But as the previous poster noted, these were from voluntary surveys.

that's literally what i said. you said the same thing with the same words arranged differently.

 

[LukeS7]

Page 7 seems to contain information that contradicts the proposition that " CDC has found that no adult contacts of infected children in school settings have tested positive "

"The attack rate among household contacts of index cases aged 09 years and 1019 years was 5.3% and 18.6%, respectively, indicating transmission potential in both children and adolescents, and possibly more effective transmission in adolescents than in adults [70]. "

What they did find, though, was that they could not find evidence of children to adult transmission within the schools (page 12):

"In summary, where COVID-19 in children was detected and contacts followed-up, no adult contacts in the school setting have been detected as SARS-CoV-2 positive during the follow-up period. The conclusion from these investigations is that children are not the primary drivers of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to adults in the school setting."

But as the previous poster noted, these were from voluntary surveys.

Not to mention there’s also this (emphasis mine)

The observation that adult staff working in schools appear not to have higher rates of COVID-19 infection than other occupational groups, the relative lack of evidence of child-to-adult transmission in schools where child cases have been identified, and the evidence (albeit limited) that the re-opening of schools in EU countries has not been associated with significant increase in community transmission supports the conclusion that transmission within schools is not a major driver of COVID-19 incidence, if appropriate mitigation measures are applied within the schools and community.

Hmmmm, wonder what those could be? Maybe masks and proper social distancing? Y’know, the exact opposite of what that school in Georgia was doing

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm assuming that's two positives? I'm guessing you've seen more possible cases that require a negative test to rule it out. Probably someone traveling from a place where it's more common. Where the hospital does all the isolation, masks, etc until the test result comes back. Probably taking longer on a weekend for the result. Which, as you said, is negative more often.

I don't remember the exact details, but I don't think the reason that either of them were in the hospital was directly related to TB. One was a known positive, and I think the other had a known TB contact and a positive PPD. I do remember that I went off service before the 2nd case's results came back.

 

[baymenxpac]

I actually got excited to read it until I quickly realized it was a freaking voluntary email survey that had no scientific follow up on the answers.

It's not really worth the internet space it takes up, frankly..

My favorite nugget:

"Many countries are not testing asymptomatic cases, so it is difficult to detect and understand transmission among mild or asymptomatic children and teachers"

And since children seem to be more likely to be asymptomatic...what are we even doing here?!

And this one:

"Interpretation of outcomes of school outbreak reports in the midst of ongoing community transmission is difficult "

So basically we can't know if it's being spread at home or at school..

you realize the famed 'contact tracing' is basically the phone version of a "freaking voluntary email?" you also realize that there are boatloads of studies, chiefly from south korea, sweden, etc., that show the same thing?

and yeah, do you want to know why some countries don't test asymptomatic people? because it's not a viable nor sustainable strategy that has ever informed public health policy in the history of mankind, particularly with a flawed PCR test. when the H1N1 pandemic hit in 2009, which did actually pose a mortal danger to large swaths of children, we recommended quarantine of....symptomatic people. if your kids are sick, keep them home. if they're not symptomatic, it's very, very likely they're not spreading it (just like the WHO said, which dr. van kerkhove was forced to walk back for no good reason).

"what we're even doing here" is trying to collect data, so that you can't just throw your hands up and say, "TOO DANGEROUS! GUESS I'LL JUST STAY HOME MERRRRRRRR" because the world can't function like that, and only house-bound agoraphobes live that way.

 

[kong1802]

you realize the famed 'contact tracing' is basically the phone version of a "freaking voluntary email?" you also realize that there are boatloads of studies, chiefly from south korea, sweden, etc., that show the same thing?

and yeah, do you want to know why some countries don't test asymptomatic people? because it's not a viable nor sustainable strategy that has ever informed public health policy in the history of mankind, particularly with a flawed PCR test. when the H1N1 pandemic hit in 2009, which did actually pose a mortal danger to large swaths of children, we recommended quarantine of....symptomatic people. if your kids are sick, keep them home. if they're not symptomatic, it's very, very likely they're not spreading it (just like the WHO said, which dr. van kerkhove was forced to walk back for no good reason).

"what we're even doing here" is trying to collect data, so that you can't just throw your hands up and say, "TOO DANGEROUS! GUESS I'LL JUST STAY HOME MERRRRRRRR" because the world can't function like that, and only house-bound agoraphobes live that way.

Interesting you didn't post the boatloads of studies but instead showed the one that made its inferences based off of a questionnaire in which most respondents didn't respond. And its conclusion was "we still think the spread happens at home but can't really be sure".

I'm not saying its not a promising start. But to throw it out there like its some real data that should assuage fears is 100% misleading.

This same study which I do hope you read in its entirety points out that the key elements are still masks, and distancing. Without those it is more likely that spread does indeed happen in the school. They gave a specific example.

There are better contract tracing methods being developed. But no, its not really the same as basing a scientific finding on a questionnaire filled out and emailed back to which you don't even get a majority back.

I'm saying we can't look at headlines like yours stating "Europe CDC gives all clear, students cant transmit to teachers, stop being afraid" and just move on like its 2019. Precautions are still necessary. See that school in GA as one example.

Also, look at the case numbers in the places that responded. Not really apples to apples to what some places are experiencing here. Details matter, not headlines.

 

[baymenxpac]

Interesting you didn't post the boatloads of studies but instead showed the one that made its inferences based off of a questionnaire in which most respondents didn't respond. And its conclusion was "we still think the spread happens at home but can't really be sure".

...

Also, look at the case numbers in the places that responded. Not really apples to apples to what some places are experiencing here. Details matter, not headlines.

i'm not the one trying to force everyone into their homes for the rest of their lives. the burden of proof is on people like YOU to justify school closures or other mitigation measures that have ravaged the globe and put undue burden on the most vulnerable in society. but since you asked. please note to your 'apples to apples' point that this includes sweden, which never had a hard lock down and didn't close schools:

norway: https://www.thelocal.no/20200508/closing-schools-may-made-virus-spread-faster-norway-health-agency
finland and sweden: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...d8ffdb57b09/covid-19-school-aged-children.pdf
sweden breaking down risk by occupational group (teacher = no excess risk, tax driver = 5x risk): https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...0f8/forekomst-covid-19-olika-yrkesgrupper.pdf
iceland: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTools=true

But to throw it out there like its some real data that should assuage fears is 100% misleading.

...

I'm saying we can't look at headlines like yours stating "Europe CDC gives all clear, students cant transmit to teachers, stop being afraid" and just move on like its 2019. Precautions are still necessary. See that school in GA as one example.

look, dude. i don't know what your deal is, but i'm not a russian bot, and i don't write "headlines." i read the whole study, so quit the condescending act. all you do is make yourself impossible to engage with and look exceedingly close minded.

last note, if you're waiting for someone to tell you, "okay, little kongy. you can do whatever you want no and not worry!" you're going to be waiting all your life. you're entitled to do that. you just don't get to decide for anybody else.

 

[xdan0920]

Yep, knew this would come up. NYT is making the claim that lockdown deaths didn’t happen. That our actions didn’t cause suffering rather then reduce it. It’s predictable, and frightening.

 

[JohnD]

Looking at the Spring 2020 Mickey Monitor.

Ah! March 2020. Remember way back when you could visit at night, go to a water park, and attend the Epcot Flower and Garden Festival? Those were the days.

https://secure.cdn1.wdpromedia.com/dam/disney-world/passholder-program/extras/mickey-monitor-runaway.pdf

 

[kong1802]

i'm not the one trying to force everyone into their homes for the rest of their lives. the burden of proof is on people like YOU to justify school closures or other mitigation measures that have ravaged the globe and put undue burden on the most vulnerable in society. but since you asked. please note to your 'apples to apples' point that this includes sweden, which never had a hard lock down and didn't close schools:

norway: https://www.thelocal.no/20200508/closing-schools-may-made-virus-spread-faster-norway-health-agency
finland and sweden: https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...d8ffdb57b09/covid-19-school-aged-children.pdf
sweden breaking down risk by occupational group (teacher = no excess risk, tax driver = 5x risk): https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...0f8/forekomst-covid-19-olika-yrkesgrupper.pdf
iceland: https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTools=true



look, dude. i don't know what your deal is, but i'm not a russian bot, and i don't write "headlines." i read the whole study, so quit the condescending act. all you do is make yourself impossible to engage with and look exceedingly close minded.

last note, if you're waiting for someone to tell you, "okay, little kongy. you can do whatever you want no and not worry!" you're going to be waiting all your life. you're entitled to do that. you just don't get to decide for anybody else.

Let's go through your sources here....for funsies....

https://www.thelocal.no/20200508/closing-schools-may-made-virus-spread-faster-norway-health-agency

But she conceded that there as yet no research had been done to back up this theory. - womp womp

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...d8ffdb57b09/covid-19-school-aged-children.pdf

Ok, a little better, but wouldn't we have to know the community spread numbers of these countries in comparison? Weird that they didn't compare to say, the US......

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...0f8/forekomst-covid-19-olika-yrkesgrupper.pdf

This one isn't in english..... - womp womp

https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2006100?articleTools=true

"The lack of increase in the incidence of infection over time may be due to containment efforts by the Icelandic health care authorities and their nimble response to the outbreak abroad. Testing of exposed persons with symptoms had been carried out for 1 month before the first SARS-CoV-2 case was identified in Iceland. Selfisolation, quarantining, and other social-distancing measures may also have help "

"Thus, the frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 infection in the overall Icelandic population was stable from March 13 to April 1, a finding that appears to indicate that the containment measures had been working. However, the virus has spread to the extent that unless we continue to test and isolate, track contacts, and quarantine, we are likely to fail in our efforts to contain the virus. "

Exactly what everyone is saying. Test, isolate, contact trace, quarantine..............

And add in mask wearing and social distancing. I'm not against schools opening where its safe. Not sure why you think that.

Thanks for sharing those sources.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

for funsies....

Thanks for the giggle!

 

[The Mom]

Would people please stop shouting back and forth AT each other. This is a discussion forum, not a shouting match. Thank you.

Please remember to post links to reputable news sources (not opinion pieces, because we all know about opinions) when you make claims if you want them to be viewed as more than just your opinion. Otherwise, take most everything posted here with a grain of salt.

 

[Heppenheimer]

i'm not the one trying to force everyone into their homes for the rest of their lives.

And nobody else is saying that either. There's a huge amount of room between carrying on like nothing in this world has changed in the past 6 months and shutting everything down completely and forever. But it requires dealing with uncertainty, taking good faith precautions, carefully applying control measures with enough nuance to deal with local situations, and listening to the advise of people who actually are experts in these matters.

We all want to go back to normal life. Unfortunately, we're dealing with something new that is preventing that. That "something" isn't overzealous governments or public health officials, that "something" is a novel coronavirus that has ravaged the world. This thing isn't going away by ignoring it.

 

[LittleBuford]

View attachment 490519

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/health-53722711

Yeah over here it’s literally been 5000 mistakingly recorded deaths that “slipped through the cracks” that have now been officially revised.

Which still leaves the number of dead Britons at over 40,000.

 

[GoofGoof]

i'm not the one trying to force everyone into their homes for the rest of their lives.

And nobody else is saying that either. There's a huge amount of room between carrying on like nothing in this world has changed in the past 6 months and shutting everything down completely and forever. But it requires dealing with uncertainty, taking good faith precautions, carefully applying control measures with enough nuance to deal with local situations, and listening to the advise of people who actually are experts in these matters.

We all want to go back to normal life. Unfortunately, we're dealing with something new that is preventing that. That "something" isn't overzealous governments of public health officials, that "something" is a novel coronavirus that has ravaged the world. This thing isn't going away by ignoring it.

Amen. This is not a black and white issue. There’s a huge grey area. The 2 extremes of locking everyone away forever on one extreme and ignoring the virus completely on the other are equally foolish paths. The solution has to lie in the middle. Unfortunately this has become so political and in American politics there’s Red and there’s Blue and a large number of people will just lock in and pick their side as gospel. That’s what’s happening here. People will fight anything that doesn’t agree with their narrative by trying to discredit the source. It’s straight from the cable news playbook (on both sides).

I’ve been saying this for months now in this thread, the vast majority of people (here and in the world) are not so far off from each other on what we all want. We may disagree on some details and speed of acting, but we all want to stay safe, get the economy working and get some version of normal life back. There are some outliers on both sides dealing in political talking points, conspiracy theories and rhetoric with a little bit of name calling thrown in. They represent the extremes and not the views of the masses.

 

[chrisvee]

I'm going to call this post -- The cautionary tale of Suwannee County Florida.

Little Suwannee County... Northern Florida county of only 44,000 people. DeSantis just celebrated the schools re-opening in Suwannee.
But Suwannee has a large prison -- which has had nearly 400 positive Covid cases.
But the cases haven't remained in the prison.

Most recent positivity rate is 22% in Suwannee. 45 deaths -- So more than 0.1% of the county has already been killed by the virus. (equivalent of over 300,000 deaths on a national level). Just yesterday alone, 412 cases were reported. So nearly 1% of the County reported positive in just 1 day -- that would be like 3 million positive new cases in 1 day on a national level. So far, there have been about 8700 tests in the county, so about 1/5th of the County has been tested, resulting in 1874 positive cases. So 4% of the county has tested positive -- the real infection rate is likely much higher. Meanwhile, kids are going to school. Masks are optional. Social distancing is "encouraged when possible."

Keep an eye on Suwanee County.

this is going to be a tragedy

 

[Jrb1979]

this is going to be a tragedy

Its saddens me greatly that things went down this road but so guess for some its better then draconian measures in place.

 

[xdan0920]

and there we go again, solidly back over 10%

Just wanted to address this....

The actual positive % was 9.35.

so that’s 8 of the past 10 days under 10%.

 

[wdwmagic]

Just wanted to address this....

The actual positive % was 9.35.

so that’s 8 of the past 10 days under 10%.

If this had been managed with any degree of responsibility and common sense Florida could have been under 5% by now on a consistent basis.

 

[GoofGoof]

In today’s installment of angry Covid deniers gone wild:

3 women were arrested after a 17-year-old Chili's hostess said angry customers attacked her for trying to enforce the restaurant's COVID-19 seating policy

"I had blood rushing everywhere," Kelsy Wallace told WBRZ, a local news station in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

www.yahoo.com

They need to start putting these people in jail...where Covid runs wild. See how “brave” they are then. Another kid brutally assaulted by a group of self entitled morons. It doesn’t matter what You believe, the rules are the rules and if you can’t follow them then stay home.

 

[Andrew C]

If this had been managed with any degree of responsibility and common sense Florida could have been under 5% by now on a consistent basis.

There has been a degree of responsibility and common sense. I think you’re looking for a specific degree of responsibility and common sense. Which would have been a continuation of a full lockdown through June and after. That maybe could have kept them below 5% until they reopened. Statewide mask mandate wouldn’t have done it. Texas has that mandate. Their cases and hospitalizations are dropping like Florida but their 7 day average positivity rate is 24%! The rate in California is increasing again. Illinois is having a second spike in cases.