wannabeBelle
Well-Known Member
I was trying to be polite. Marie
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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bdearl41
Well-Known Member
There is no doubt. The bellwether for people returning to normal will be Disney parks and Las Vegas returning to normal.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
And most states aren’t following the guidelines that were introduced and are opening before they meet the phase 1 criteria. And why listen to the experts like the CDC?
Giss Neric
Well-Known Member
They are iconic places and very very popular ones where millions go to each year. Of course people will base it on them.
Prince-1
Well-Known Member
Hmmm random guy on a Disney chat site who regurgitates a chart or experts who are predicting a huge spike in cases and deaths. I wonder who I’ll listen to??
Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen (Published 2020)
An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June. The White House bars coronavirus task force officials from testifying to Congress without approval.
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xdan0920
Think for yourselfer
Models have been SPOT ON. You’re right.Hmmm random guy on a Disney chat site who regurgitates a chart or experts who are predicting a huge spike in cases and deaths. I wonder who I’ll listen to??
Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen (Published 2020)
An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June. The White House bars coronavirus task force officials from testifying to Congress without approval.www.nytimes.com
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I know I'm just a random guy on the internet, but those charts are what we call "data". That's all we really have and it's what models are based on. The NYTimes article cites the IHME model, which looks like this and does not show a "huge spike" or "sharp rise" in deaths (although noted that this model has consistently been very wrong):Hmmm random guy on a Disney chat site who regurgitates a chart or experts who are predicting a huge spike in cases and deaths. I wonder who I’ll listen to??
Models Project Sharp Rise in Deaths as States Reopen (Published 2020)
An internal Trump administration report expects about 200,000 daily cases by June. The White House bars coronavirus task force officials from testifying to Congress without approval.
and it cites an internal FEMA model, which might be published but I cannot find on FEMA.gov.
"IHME model predicts gradual reduction in deaths per day in spite of economy opening" doesn't make for as flashy of a headline, so they chose the FEMA scenario.
Now, could there be a spike? Sure - the point for the past 2 months of this thread is that no one knows, so we look at where the data is and the trends so far. We had a debate a long while ago about what makes an "expert". Even if you say the only ones who qualify as epidemiologists, there are ~7,600 of them just int he US according to the bureau of labor statistics and there is no consensus among them. So when you choose who you will listed to you have many choices.
If Disney opens in July, come October they will either be functioning normally or closed again. These phases are not meant to last for months, either it works and we are back to normal (other then perhaps an international travel ban) or it failed and we are reliving April 2020 again.
DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
We do know that close to 98% of people that get Covid show symptoms by 11-12 days . Incubation period is, from what we know, 14 days. So we can’t look at the numbers of the last 2 weeks. This week coming up and the following will be better barometer. We all hope for the best.And yet when we actually look at the data, cases in GA are down over two weeks since they started reopening...
You said Facebook. That was enough.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
While that is good news, I'm not sure it means what people want it to mean. Like the Tampa Bay Times article said, people chose to stay at home without a mandate from FL, and it positively impacted the spread of the virus. The GA data, IMO, indicates that despite lifting of some restrictions people didn't, en mass, start doing those activities. Hey, we were Sweden after all, even in GA. IMO, it has nothing to do with how the virus operates, which has always been the problem, with regards to returning to normal.And yet when we actually look at the data, cases in GA are down over two weeks since they started reopening...
The next measure will be, does the lower infection levels post-reopening lead to complacency. People see the number didn't spike, so then they DO go out and then the numbers spike. Or do people continue to take the virus seriously and continue to stay home. The one thing I've continued to underestimate is how seriously most people took and are continuing to take this, despite the very loud voices otherwise. So then IMO, the greatest chance for spikes would be when people are "forced" into closer proximity to more people. Such as places of employment (offices suspending WFH policies) and schools reopening.
Economically, this is not the news people were hoping for, however. This is going to be a long, and cruel economic slog. I am a lot less optimistic about the economic data that will come out of GA, by the end of June than I am the virus data. No customers = permanently closed businesses, instead of the weird state of limbo those businesses were in before.
bdearl41
Well-Known Member
While you are not wrong, don’t forget only 5-10% of people get tested and most experts and doctors agree 60-80% of people get symptoms. So when you see 500 new cases it actually means more likely it’s 5000-10000 actual infected. This will over much quicker than folks think.
bdearl41
Well-Known Member
I agree that in October it is more likely to be normal than not. But I see know chance of us shutting down the country again. Maybe back to a phase 2 situation, but we won’t close again.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
When I was at Yosemite last summer I saw a guy climb over a fence and ignore multiple warning signs to get to the top of a waterfall to take a selfie. He got the picture and luckily made it back to safety. Because he didn’t slip, fall and plummet to his death doesn’t mean that what he did wasn’t stoopid.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
The key for Disney is to make the masses feel comfortable to come back and spend their money. Opening too soon or with too many complicated restrictions may appeal to a select group of people, but WDW can’t be supported long term by a fraction of visitors. They already face an uphill battle due to less people having disposable income. They can’t afford to not have people feel safe. Unlike going back to work or shopping for essentials nobody has to go to WDW. They won’t come back in numbers unless everything else is going smooth.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
For each 5000-10000 people that represents .0015-.003% of the population. Estimates are 60-70% of the population will end up infected, during the spread. That means we need 20,000-46,600 of those "5000-10000 groups" to be infected. That isn't going to happen overnight. For this to be over in 1 year, 55-127 "groups" have to be infected every day. 550,000 - 635,000 people EVERY.DAY. There are about 30,000 new positive tests every day. So if we say that is actually 150,000-300,000 people, then we are talking for this to be over in 1 year, we need to double our current numbers.
10,000 people sounds like a lot of people, but not vs the 330 million people who live in the USA.
The 12-24 month timeline has always been based on math estimating how long it will take for 200 million people to get infected. I admit, that in February and March, I didn't understand what that meant. We have advanced medicine and stuff. Now that I understand, it's math that's setting the timeline, I've been working on figuring out how to deal with this for 1-2 years. I suggest everyone else does as well.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Outside of NY and Northern CA where they ran some antibody studies has there been any conclusive testing done to show that the infection rate is actually 10 to 20 times the positives reported? In NY state the tests showed 14% of residents were infected which is 2.7M people vs the 333K people testing positive so 8X the positive tests. That also includes NYC and Long Island which were hot hard. Even if you take the 1.3M positive cases and assume 8X that number are infected that’s 10.4M total infected. Even if that’s the current run rate of infection (10M over 2 months) it would take roughly 3 years to get to herd immunity. If we assume the rate goes up 3 fold compared to the last 2 months going forward as things open up then it’s possible to reach herd immunity by some time in early to mid 2021. 3X cases likely means 3X deaths so 1M people gone to achieve that. I’m not sure what you were thinking folks were considering for the length this sticks around, but a vaccine may be quicker than natural herd immunity.
HongKongFooy
Well-Known Member
I can relate:
Best friend pulled that same stunt sitting on a cliff at the top of Yosemite Falls a few years back--- before the days of selfie--- only to smoke a bowl.
All of the discouraging in the world would not have helped him. His mind was set.
Polynesia
Well-Known Member
It might be a combination of the vaccine and number of people already possibly immune. There are still reports that they’re hopeful to have 100,000,000 doses of vaccine by fall. These would be for hospital workers and first responders, possibly nursing homes, too. Combining those two numbers would go a long way in helping to fight this.
Polynesia
Well-Known Member
Fauci Says It's 'Doable' To Have Millions Of Doses Of COVID-19 Vaccine By January
Noting that trials are still in the early phase, Dr. Anthony Fauci says the plan is to develop a vaccine that is safe and effective — and can be quickly scaled up for distribution.
www.npr.org
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