Coranavirus Disneyland General Discussion

[BuzzedPotatoHead89]

There is something extra annoying/ insulting about giving us a month of oxygen only to take it away again. Honestly not sure I’ll be able to comply this time around. Especially in Summer and after I’ve gotten used to not wearing them again.

I give it until Fall and if vaccination rates don’t improve the entire state will be back to indoor masking. I’m indifferent now. I was anti-closure but I thought the “honor system” was a joke.

Delta is just another turn in a new, long, winding road and 2019 is in the rearview mirror. Best to buckle up.

 

[Californian Elitist]

Remember, friends, your enemies want you to suffer and they think it's funny:

As if you haven’t been making attempts at jokes. Haha.

But really though, the dramatics you’ve been putting on are truly comical. Please, carry on.

 

[Tamandua]

Yeah I guess the security guard at Ralph’s is going to have to throw me out. I can’t do it anymore. Plus when I go to the store, mall or anywhere I know what I’m buying. I get in and out of there. I’m not even worth their time. By the time they call Security I’ll be out of there.

Assuming places even enforce this the way they did before, which I think is unlikely. There's already a lot of pushback.

 

[Tamandua]

Any Los Angeles County business that enforces this will lose business to others that don't enforce it, or any business one county over in any direction. This will only hurt Los Angeles County.

 

[October82]

I give it until Fall and if vaccination rates don’t improve the entire state will be back to indoor masking. I’m indifferent now. I was anti-closure but I thought the “honor system” was a joke.

Delta is just another turn in a new, long, winding road and 2019 is in the rearview mirror. Best to buckle up.

The difference between the red/purple and green curves is why masking rules are returning in California. The difference between those two curves is 10-20,000 deaths by the end of the Fall.

 

[Nirya]

Why would anybody get vaccinated now? The government just told us they'll take it all back at the drop of a hat, regardless of your vaccination status. There's no reason to comply because they'll never let up.

The other way is that we have a collective action problem, and because a sizeable segment of the population cannot get with the program, the whole has to suffer. Government can't make vaccinations compulsory, so we have to rely on people to do the right thing. As this whole pandemic has proven, people will time-and-again choose to be selfish over doing the right thing.

 

[BuzzedPotatoHead89]

Why would anybody get vaccinated now? The government just told us they'll take it all back at the drop of a hat, regardless of your vaccination status. There's no reason to comply because they'll never let up.

I mean I got vaccinated to protect myself and my elderly relatives. I do have friends that have chosen to wait. It’s their prerogative. Of course since politics is politics, medical decisions should in my view be based the review of the medical evidence as opposed as a reaction out of spite or affection for an elected official.

But I’m simply stating facts here. The experts (whether you I or anyone agrees with then or not) tasked with making these decisions are going to do what they’re going to do. Based on what they’ve defined as “herd immunity”, and the very “stubborn approach” Dr. Ghaly and the Newsom Administration have taken there is more than enough reason why this could be coming down the pipe if the current trajectory holds.

And yes, there will be greater latitude he’ll have if/when he defeats the recall.

 

[SplashGhost]

Just as it felt like we were at the end of COVID, it feels like it is all starting up again. This feels like we are on an infinite loop of despair.

 

[October82]

Just as it felt like we were at the end of COVID, it feels like it is all starting up again. This feels like we are on an infinite loop of despair.

The vaccines really make a huge difference. We won't see the really large numbers of cases and deaths we saw at the end of 2020, and the most restrictive measures probably won't be necessary unless something changes.

 

[Nirya]

Let's hope you're right about that.

The vaccination rate numbers back it up. Just some basic numbers stuff:

Let's take the US fully-vaccinated rate of 48.5%. Obviously some areas are higher than others (like California being over 50%) but we'll stick with the overall number for a second. That number equals out to about 159 million fully vaccinated, out of a total population of 328 million (roughly, I know there's a bit more than that but I want to be a little lazy with the math).

Now, obviously we have to consider that a good segment of that 51.5% of the population that is not fully-vaccinated is between the ages of 0-12, simply because they are not eligible. Another significant chunk will be between 12-18, as that group opened up relatively recently and is in more of a trial phase. That still leaves a sizeable portion of the population that is avoiding getting a shot for whatever reason. Here's a look at the numbers broken down by age bracket (I'm pulling the numbers from the Mayo Clinic's tracker, and I'm using one-dose instead of fully vaccinated because it at least gives an idea of who is even meeting half-way on this):

Looking over these numbers, there's a pretty clear gap where people who are "relatively healthy" are avoiding getting the shot, which is ultimately a bad thing. It allows for the virus to continue to spread, and because it is a coronavirus, allows it to mutate at a higher rate than something like the flu. Early studies are that the current vaccine provides some level of resistance to the delta-variant, but resistance is not immunity, which puts even more emphasis on trying to get hold-outs to vaccinate.

I'd liken this to a carrot-and-stick approach. People were given a carrot and could not handle it, and now they're getting the stick. And even then, reimposing a more targeted mask mandate shows that we better understand the virus and how to limit its spread. I'm not actually sure how this is a sign of bad governance unless you are just a fan of making bad-faith arguments.

 

[TP2000]

View attachment 572543

The difference between the red/purple and green curves is why masking rules are returning in California. The difference between those two curves is 10-20,000 deaths by the end of the Fall.

No. The majority of people testing positive for Covid now are between 18 and 29 years old. It's nearly impossible for them to die of Covid at that young age, unless they are already deathly ill with other diseases.

And 100% of the hospital admissions in LA County for Covid are unvaccinated people.

The median age of death from Covid in 2020 was 80 years old, with an average of two pre-existing serious health problems (co-morbidities). The median life expectancy for Americans is 78 years old. Once you hit 78, you are beating the clock and counting down.

COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

Tabulated data on provisional COVID-19 deaths by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, and comorbidities. Also includes an index of state-level and county-level mortality data available for download.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Nirya]

I appreciate this post and the effort that went into it. Thank you.

What I'm wrestling with is in the bold paragraph. We are never going to achieve 100% vaccine rate. That will just never happen, simple as that. It's an unachievable goal. So if there are going to always be those who are unvaccinated, and variants will always spread through them, and the vaccine cannot protect against these variants, when does it all end? What is the timeframe? Two weeks to flatten the curve so hospitals don't get overwhelmed? Herd immunity that can never exist due to variants? If we cannot take our masks off now, then why? The only honest answer appears to be never, which is an answer I simply refuse to accept.

I agree that 100% is not a reasonable goal. Good thing no one in the scientific community has ever said that. The actual number to aim for is around 77%, and that's definitely more achievable. Hell, if you look again at those age group breakdowns, some of them are already there, or at least pretty close.

Now, that 77% is for the entire population, which leaves us with a problem. Specifically, a sizeable chunk of it (0-12) is currently not eligible for the vaccine. That means in order to get to that 77%, the age breakdown looks something like this:

0-11: 0 %
12-17: 85 %
18-59: 85 %
60+: 90 %
total: 77%

And thus you see the problem. Those younger age groups especially are nowhere close to where they need to be, while the oldest age group....actually is pretty close. Again, those statements we've heard all pandemic long about how "if you're young it won't really effect you" and other nonsense is returning to bite us again and again.

My honest answer is that there are two realistic options to get to that magic percentage. The first is to get that youngest group vaccine-eligible, and do a massive vaccine drive through schools to raise the numbers in those bottom two groups. Using the carrot of "if we can get the school vaccine rate high enough we won't have to mask during class" would go a long way here, and I can attest from personal experience of working at a school that many students really do want to get the vaccine (we ended up with a majority of our juniors and seniors vaccinated as soon as they were eligible, with our freshmen and sophomores joining them). Now, this does mean waiting a bit for the vaccine to clear clinical trials, which take longer with children because their bodies are developing and thus react to things differently, but to me this seems like a major opportunity point, and even in general raising the 12-17 and 18-24 rates should be a major emphasis point for government at all levels.

The second option, probably more controversial to people here, is to make life miserable for people who refuse to get the vaccine. This would involve things like vaccine passports and mandatory checks, but the idea is to create an atmosphere that incentivizes getting a vaccine. Want to go to Disneyland? Better have your vaccine passport handy. Want to go on a trip? You're not going anywhere without a vaccine. Want to eat at a restaurant without having to worry about a mask? If you can't show proof of your vaccine, then sorry, looks like you're out of luck. This extends to businesses as well, who should be incentivizing getting their employees the vaccine (as an example, I went to the Flame Broiler by my apartment, and they had a sign explaining that everyone working in the restaurant was fully vaccinated and thus wasn't wearing a mask).

In either scenario, there has to be an understanding that this is a huge ask, and unfortunately we live in a world where, as I've said, a sizeable chunk of the population has decided that they will refuse to get a simple vaccine simply because they don't agree with the political affiliation of people in charge. It's meant that the US, which has had access to larger quantities of the vaccine than anyone else, is now lagging behind on vaccination rates compared to other major world powers. And let me be perfectly clear: neither political party is blameless here. Republican officials are at fault for continually giving in to the loudest and stupidest part of their base, and Democratic officials are at fault for trying to have their cake and eat it instead of doing the right thing.

That's, unfortunately, where we're at. We're on a treadmill, and every time it looks like we're about to reach the end of the set, we start standing on the sides and congratulating ourselves, and end up extending our time on the treadmill even further. Eventually, we will get off it, but it would require the collective of Americans to get over themselves and act for the common good for the first time since World War II.

 

[TP2000]

I agree that 100% is not a reasonable goal. Good thing no one in the scientific community has ever said that. The actual number to aim for is around 77%, and that's definitely more achievable. Hell, if you look again at those age group breakdowns, some of them are already there, or at least pretty close.

Now, that 77% is for the entire population, which leaves us with a problem. Specifically, a sizeable chunk of it (0-12) is currently not eligible for the vaccine. That means in order to get to that 77%, the age breakdown looks something like this:

0-11: 0 %
12-17: 85 %
18-59: 85 %
60+: 90 %
total: 77%

And thus you see the problem. Those younger age groups especially are nowhere close to where they need to be, while the oldest age group....actually is pretty close. Again, those statements we've heard all pandemic long about how "if you're young it won't really effect you" and other nonsense is returning to bite us again and again.

My honest answer is that there are two realistic options to get to that magic percentage. The first is to get that youngest group vaccine-eligible, and do a massive vaccine drive through schools to raise the numbers in those bottom two groups. Using the carrot of "if we can get the school vaccine rate high enough we won't have to mask during class" would go a long way here, and I can attest from personal experience of working at a school that many students really do want to get the vaccine (we ended up with a majority of our juniors and seniors vaccinated as soon as they were eligible, with our freshmen and sophomores joining them). Now, this does mean waiting a bit for the vaccine to clear clinical trials, which take longer with children because their bodies are developing and thus react to things differently, but to me this seems like a major opportunity point, and even in general raising the 12-17 and 18-24 rates should be a major emphasis point for government at all levels.

The second option, probably more controversial to people here, is to make life miserable for people who refuse to get the vaccine. This would involve things like vaccine passports and mandatory checks, but the idea is to create an atmosphere that incentivizes getting a vaccine. Want to go to Disneyland? Better have your vaccine passport handy. Want to go on a trip? You're not going anywhere without a vaccine. Want to eat at a restaurant without having to worry about a mask? If you can't show proof of your vaccine, then sorry, looks like you're out of luck. This extends to businesses as well, who should be incentivizing getting their employees the vaccine (as an example, I went to the Flame Broiler by my apartment, and they had a sign explaining that everyone working in the restaurant was fully vaccinated and thus wasn't wearing a mask).

In either scenario, there has to be an understanding that this is a huge ask, and unfortunately we live in a world where, as I've said, a sizeable chunk of the population has decided that they will refuse to get a simple vaccine simply because they don't agree with the political affiliation of people in charge. It's meant that the US, which has had access to larger quantities of the vaccine than anyone else, is now lagging behind on vaccination rates compared to other major world powers. And let me be perfectly clear: neither political party is blameless here. Republican officials are at fault for continually giving in to the loudest and stupidest part of their base, and Democratic officials are at fault for trying to have their cake and eat it instead of doing the right thing.

That's, unfortunately, where we're at. We're on a treadmill, and every time it looks like we're about to reach the end of the set, we start standing on the sides and congratulating ourselves, and end up extending our time on the treadmill even further. Eventually, we will get off it, but it would require the collective of Americans to get over themselves and act for the common good for the first time since World War II.

Let's not forget, there were over 40 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the USA. Plus untold tens of millions (mostly young people) who were asymptomatic and thus never tested even though they had it and now have anitbodies.

That's a solid 20%+ of the country that's already had it, and now has antibodies created by nature instead of Johnson & Johnson.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Hopefully they stay there then, since the virus is surging in Nevada right now. I wonder if it has anything to do with everyone going maskless in the indoor casinos, since it's like an oven outside.

And the selling point and the "honor" system was working Soooo well.

I’m sure the weather plays a huge role in the increase, I tend to be a glass half full guy though so when I look at the graph I don’t see a surge, I see a graph that shows less than half the cases we had last year when most businesses were still closed and the ones that were open had no indoor dining, had social distancing, required masks, had plexiglass dividers everywhere, etc, etc, etc,

Vegas has been 100% free of any mandatory restrictions for several months now and our case counts are dramatically less than they were a year ago when every restriction was still in place, factor in that our deaths statewide are currently at 3 and holding steady and I see that as a massive win and a glowing endorsement for how affective the vaccines actually are.

 

[Nirya]

If 23% remain unvaccinated, and variants are carried through the unvaccinated (which, I'd like to point out quickly, does not make sense - variants are attempts at overcoming obstacles in a person's immunity, so wouldn't it be those who have stronger immunities, i.e. those with the vaccine, in which the variants are created?), and the vaccine cannot protect against variants, we're still at this problem of variants spreading.

So to start with how variants develop, they develop more rapidly in unvaccinated people because they do not have the built-in resistances that vaccinated people have. Thus, while the virus might infect a vaccinated person, it does not stick around as long as it would in an unvaccinated person as they don't have the developed antibodies to fight it. It means the virus can then incubate and evolve longer. That's why it works that way.

Why would anybody believe this promise when Los Angeles made the same promise and now is taking it back?

If the promise was "we're going to lower restrictions as long as we continue on this current path" and things backslide to the point where restrictions are again necessary, that's not breaking a promise. That's coming through with the promised consequences. It's like if you told your child you'd take them out for ice cream if they cleaned their room. If they fail to do that, you don't take them out for ice cream afterwards anyway.

Ignoring that this is blatantly unconstitutional, and ignoring that it will surely end in a violent revolt with millions dead, the idea that a business could refuse a mother from buying food and diapers for her baby because the mother did not receive the vaccine for religious, health, or just personal reasons, is a pretty disgusting world to live in and not one anybody here should ever think is justified.

Actually, this wouldn't be that difficult to implement, considering how lockdowns went in the first place. It would just require incentivizing businesses to play ball, which shouldn't be too hard if you tell them "this is something you will implement, because if not we're shutting it all down again". And it wouldn't result in a violent revolt, despite whatever weird fantasies you might have.

As for your hypothetical with the mother, guess what? She can just wear her mask when she's shopping. And if she chooses not to, she can and should be removed from the store until she can figure out how to be a functioning adult during a pandemic. But luxuries, including going out to eat at a restaurant, can and probably should be limited to vaccinated folks as an incentive device.

I think there's a lot more than just political affiliations being responsible for a lack of vaccinations. Just look at the numbers you brought up. That's in California, which is the Democrat stronghold, yet it's only a little over 50% of 18-39 year-old who've received the vaccine. I'm pretty confident in saying that less than 45% of CA is Republican. Now, I know you said you're not blaming one party or the other, but let's face it, the Republican Party is the one primarily opposing the vaccine, but then why aren't more Democrats getting vaccinated in CA? I don't suppose there's any data showing the vaccination rates in different demographics?

This is actually quite a fascinating point, and it's not something people want to talk about out of fear of accusations of racism and that it challenges the narrative of multiculturalism, but the United States during WWII was much more homogenous than it is now. The United States, at the time, was 89.9% White, 9.8% African-American, and 0.4% other in 1940. In addition to that, the vast majority of Americans were Christians, whether that be Protestant or Catholic, and even those who weren't were surrounded by traditional Christian ideas and values, not the least of which was loving thy neighbor.

Today, by contrast, we're a much more diverse nation. In the last 80 years, the White population in the United States has dropped down to 60%, Latinos up at 18%, African-Americans now at around 13%, Asian-Americans at 6%, and 2% other (I should point out that, to my understanding, the 1940's census would have counted Latinos as White which skews the data slightly). And of course, this trend is only continuing in the coming generations. Additionally, religion is being lost in American households as less and less hold to any religious views and Christianity has almost entirely left the culture.

I don't want to get too off track, but my point is this: when the people who are around you look and think the way you do, it is a lot easier to make sacrifices for them. You can argue that's wrong, you can argue we should be above that, but you cannot deny what is human nature. Diversity inherently means division (you can see it in the root; coming from the French diversité meaning "perversity" and the Latin diversitatem meaning contradiction and disagreement), so it only makes sense that as this nation grows more diverse in demographics and ideas there will be more hostility and less common ground to work with one another on.

I'm gonna lump these last two together, because I want to do a "yes but also no" here. Yes, part of the issue is that there are minority groups that are hesitant to get the vaccine for various and, frankly, more understandable reasons than ones we're seeing from, as you put it, the generally Republican anti-vax crowd. Where there is a difference is that there are prominent outreach efforts to increase vaccinations in those communities, and places like California have emphasized the need on getting the vaccine to the poorer communities that are more at-risk. And even then, there are reports of how the vaccine has been distributed that has left noticeable gaps in outreach to Black and Latino communities compared to richer, whiter ones that have played a factor.

That said, no this is not an issue of multiculturalism at fault. I'm trying to think of the right way to say this, but even lumping white together acts as though these groups are homogenous, when there are major cultural differences and, throughout US history, groups have been added or removed from that category based on the whims of the day. As you correctly pointed out, people of Latin heritage were considered white during World War II, but a simple survey of groups that were not considered white at some point in US History would include Germans, Irish, Italians, Greeks, and Eastern Europeans (not to mention Jews, who have always had some level of outsider status in US history). This idea that the US is just now experiencing a multicultural crisis for the first time is, in many ways, ahistorical. What we're instead seeing is just another shift in the identity of what an American is, and we're, again, seeing a backlash to that shift, one that has cropped up time and again.

 

[Nirya]

Let's not forget, there were over 40 million confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the USA. Plus untold tens of millions (mostly young people) who were asymptomatic and thus never tested even though they had it and now have anitbodies.

That's a solid 20%+ of the country that's already had it, and now has antibodies created by nature instead of Johnson & Johnson.

Hey, didn't want you to think I was ignoring this, but it's always hard to use these numbers when factoring things in because we don't actually have hard data like we do with vaccinations. Like, if you just take the confirmed COVID cases, that's only 8% of the population, and without any hard data of people with undiagnosed COVID who developed antibodies, you can't factor them into any tracking of herd immunity, because you could end up with cases of double-counting people who were asymptomatic and got the vaccine (you even end up double-counting the people who got COVID and got the vaccine after as well).

Like, at best you can probably add a 10% on top of current numbers, but I'd be wary of doing more than that.

Edit: anyway, I'm going to bed, try not to be terrible to each other while I'm gone.

 

[mickEblu]

Oh no. Pages of virus, masks and vaccine discussions. Is it 2020 again?

 

[PiratesMansion]

Oh no. Pages of virus, masks and vaccine discussions. Is it 2020 again?

Pandemic discussion will end when the pandemic ends. It's that simple.

Which would be a lot easier if people just got vaccinated, but there are a number of people holding us back from that because they, y'know, *checks notes* won't. Not can't. Just won't.

Funnily enough, it tends to be those same people who scream the loudest when restrictions might have to go back in place, when it's largely their own fault. Strange how that works.

Despite popular rumor, "I am living my life basically normally" and/or "I no longer care about the pandemic" =/= "the pandemic is over and we can live life totally normally."

Does everyone want this to be over? Yes. But it won't be until the people that won't get vaccinated do so. Which is something entirely possible and would prevent lots of needless deaths, but blah blah blah FREEDOM or something.

 

[Stevek]

Why would anybody get vaccinated now? The government just told us they'll take it all back at the drop of a hat, regardless of your vaccination status.

I dunno...because they don't want to get sick, get their loved ones sick, maybe die or have ongoing medical issues? The government took it back because people won't get vaccinated and they can't trust the unvaccinated to wear a mask when asked.

 

[Tamandua]

I just got a letter from our health care provider inviting our 6 year old to take place in the vaccine trial. Unbelievable. She's only 6 and in perfect health, absolutely no risk from covid. There's only downside in having her take an experimental vaccine so that they can see how many kids get side effects and how bad they are.