More importantly we live in world where we can’t trust anything the media writes.
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Coranavirus Disneyland General Discussion
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mickEblu
Well-Known Member
Yup. That’s what I was getting at
el_super
Well-Known Member
I read a lot in recent years about the link in teen suicides and social media. It would make sense that, during a lock down, where kids are forced to stay home and social media use skyrockets, that suicides would too. I never really bought into the idea that the lockdown itself was the cause (it never was).
October82
Well-Known Member
This is really cool and I'm definitely going to save this! Some super nitpick comments,
1. It's Bayes' theorem, not Baye's theorem. The theorem is named for Reverend Thomas Bayes, who discovered the theorem in the 1700s and gave it the correct/modern interpretation.
2. Although this is technically an example of Bayes' theorem, it's really just basic probability. Usually when people talk about Bayes' theorem, they mean a particular special case/interpretation of the rule for multiplying conditional probabilities.
October82
Well-Known Member
The bigger issue is that the social consequences of "lockdowns" are just that - social consequences. We need to do a better job of providing mental health, and healthcare in general, in the US. The pandemic didn't cause these problems, it just made them more obvious.
Nirya
Well-Known Member
I think the idea is that there are more vaccinated people than unvaccinated people (especially in a place like England where this report came from) and thus they have a larger pool to pull from. The example given would work better for Israel, which has a large majority of the population vaccinated and thus has been subject to news articles claiming “the high rate of vaccinated people in hospitals in Israel proves vaccines don’t work” without any hint of irony.
Besides the problem of the health minister there completely goofing on his numbers and having to correct on Twitter after everyone ran with the story, it’d also be helpful to know the level of hospitalization (aka mild or serious issue) in those groups.
October82
Well-Known Member
Just to add onto this - this explains why you expect the fraction of hospitalized people who are vaccinated to increase over time. While I wouldn't say that it's a sign that the vaccines are working, it is a sign that the population is becoming increasingly vaccinated. The raw percentage is not, absent other information, evidence that the vaccines do not work.
If you're actually trying to figure out if the vaccine is working or not, you have to ask what the number of people you'd expect to see hospitalized would be assuming a certain vaccine efficacy. Then you compare that to the real hospitalization percentage. But you need both pieces of information, having only one of the two doesn't tell you a whole lot.
This is a straightforward application of Bayes' theorem which is how people do this "for real" and what this example is really about.
October82
Well-Known Member
This is well into politics so we should probably try to stay on topic. That said, there's a wealth of evidence that people's belief in the untrustworthiness of the media is proceeded by their disagreement with media coverage, and not the other way around. In other words, people don't like news stories that conflict with their beliefs, and rather than change their beliefs, decide not to trust the news anymore.
It's an almost textbook example of confirmation bias.
SoCalDisneyLover
Well-Known Member
Getting back to the subject at hand. I just wanted to say, without hesitation, that I sincerely believe things are going to get Really bad in August. And I had predicted that it wouldn't be too long before Disney started with requiring masks indoors again, and tonight on Fresh Baked, David said it's going to happen, and soon.
But make no mistake, that's not going to help prevent all the cases that are already out there, and spreading like a virus during a still unfinished pandemic. Any steps taken now, won't have an impact for At Least 2-4 weeks.
Now, I'm not saying that the parks will close again, but I honestly don't know what measures they'll take, should the situation deteriorate even more rapidly than I think is possible. Not entirely sure they have a Plan B. Could just be a case of living with the reality of an outbreak, with the unvaccinated the most vulnerable. The variable is whether the Delta variant starts killing young kids, the ones unable to get vaccinated.
But make no mistake, that's not going to help prevent all the cases that are already out there, and spreading like a virus during a still unfinished pandemic. Any steps taken now, won't have an impact for At Least 2-4 weeks.
Now, I'm not saying that the parks will close again, but I honestly don't know what measures they'll take, should the situation deteriorate even more rapidly than I think is possible. Not entirely sure they have a Plan B. Could just be a case of living with the reality of an outbreak, with the unvaccinated the most vulnerable. The variable is whether the Delta variant starts killing young kids, the ones unable to get vaccinated.
Sharon&Susan
Well-Known Member
Not to say that a reinstatement of a mask requirement isn't possible (it definitely is), but is FB really a reliable enough source that it's worth considering it a confirmation that it's happening?
I don't watch them, so maybe they've got a better track record than the impression I get from them here do to a few of their past Snafus like confusing a new shade structure for Monorail track and proof of it being rerouted.
SoCalDisneyLover
Well-Known Member
I didn't mean it to sound like confirmation it was happening, but he said he's heard rumblings that it is. I trust that he has sources, as he obviously spends a lot of time covering Disneyland. He didn't make it sound like it was just a rumor or speculation of what may happen, he made it sound like the decision has already been made.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Ready to relive early 2021? Orange County should currently be in the Red Tier, and naughty LA County should currently be in the dreaded Purple Tier. Except Governor Newsom ditched his entire Four Tiers To A Safer Economy thing five weeks ago as the Recall campaign gained traction.
But if we were still using the Four Tiers, Orange County would be in the Red Tier. And that means Disneyland would revert to the following rules that were updated by the Newsom adminstration in April, 2021, effective immediately:
• Max 15% Park Capacity
• Small Groups - Max 10 people or 3 household groups with no intergroup mixing
• Indoor attraction capacity max 15% with time restrictions
• No indoor dining
• Online ticket purchases only
• In-state visitors only, check for current CDPH Travel Advisory in effect
But no such restrictions exist for theme parks, or any industry. And Governor Newsom, faced with yesterday's poll showing 58% of California voters would now like to replace Newsom, isn't making a move to return to the "Science and Data" he used to impose these old restrictions earlier this year.
What's a few new variants between friends? Party on, California!
www.ocregister.com
California has come a long way in the battle against COVID-19. But maybe not as far as many think.
Case rates have risen enough in recent weeks that if the state’s old four-color tier system were still in place, Los Angeles County could have just moved into the most restrictive purple tier, where Southern California spent the darkest days of the pandemic, while Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties would likely now be in the second-most restrictive red tier, according to state data updated Thursday, July 22.
Hospitalizations are on the rise as well, with the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients undergoing hospital treatment statewide doubling in just the past 16 days to more than 2,400 and the number requiring intensive care doubling in the past 17 days to 575. The last time the numbers rose that quickly was in November and December, as the devastating winter surge was building.
Since the state reopened June 15 and the tier-based restrictions were lifted, California has tried to crawl back to something closer to pre-COVID-19 normalcy. Battered by the human and economic toll of the pandemic, Californians suddenly could enjoy unrestricted gatherings on Independence Day while returning to old favorites such as live sports, bars and theme parks.
But could the state ever return to more widespread restrictions like those in place under the tier system if the situation continues to get worse?
Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, doesn’t believe so, especially considering Gov. Gavin Newsom’s fight to avoid recall in a Sept. 14 election in which his handling of the pandemic looms large.
“Politically, while there’s a recall on the horizon, there’s not going to be the same sentiment for statewide action,” Godwin said. “Really, now it’s about nudging, encouraging, begging people to get vaccinated as an alternative to additional mandates.”
But if we were still using the Four Tiers, Orange County would be in the Red Tier. And that means Disneyland would revert to the following rules that were updated by the Newsom adminstration in April, 2021, effective immediately:
• Max 15% Park Capacity
• Small Groups - Max 10 people or 3 household groups with no intergroup mixing
• Indoor attraction capacity max 15% with time restrictions
• No indoor dining
• Online ticket purchases only
• In-state visitors only, check for current CDPH Travel Advisory in effect
But no such restrictions exist for theme parks, or any industry. And Governor Newsom, faced with yesterday's poll showing 58% of California voters would now like to replace Newsom, isn't making a move to return to the "Science and Data" he used to impose these old restrictions earlier this year.
What's a few new variants between friends? Party on, California!
Southern California would be back in purple, red tiers if old color-coded system still existed
Health experts are concerned by fast-rising rates of infections and hospitalizations, but it seems unlikely the state would revert back to restrictions imposed by the tiers.
www.ocregister.com
California has come a long way in the battle against COVID-19. But maybe not as far as many think.
Case rates have risen enough in recent weeks that if the state’s old four-color tier system were still in place, Los Angeles County could have just moved into the most restrictive purple tier, where Southern California spent the darkest days of the pandemic, while Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties would likely now be in the second-most restrictive red tier, according to state data updated Thursday, July 22.
Hospitalizations are on the rise as well, with the number of confirmed COVID-19 patients undergoing hospital treatment statewide doubling in just the past 16 days to more than 2,400 and the number requiring intensive care doubling in the past 17 days to 575. The last time the numbers rose that quickly was in November and December, as the devastating winter surge was building.
Since the state reopened June 15 and the tier-based restrictions were lifted, California has tried to crawl back to something closer to pre-COVID-19 normalcy. Battered by the human and economic toll of the pandemic, Californians suddenly could enjoy unrestricted gatherings on Independence Day while returning to old favorites such as live sports, bars and theme parks.
Delta variant fuels rise
Now, as the delta variant of the virus fuels the new rise in cases, health officials are seeing now-familiar surge patterns that followed past holiday periods. Los Angeles County is once again requiring people to wear masks indoors, regardless of their vaccination status, and about one-third of California’s counties are recommending but not requiring it.But could the state ever return to more widespread restrictions like those in place under the tier system if the situation continues to get worse?
Marcia Godwin, a professor of public administration at the University of La Verne, doesn’t believe so, especially considering Gov. Gavin Newsom’s fight to avoid recall in a Sept. 14 election in which his handling of the pandemic looms large.
“Politically, while there’s a recall on the horizon, there’s not going to be the same sentiment for statewide action,” Godwin said. “Really, now it’s about nudging, encouraging, begging people to get vaccinated as an alternative to additional mandates.”
October82
Well-Known Member
One of the challenges with talking about this is that people mean different things when they say the "media". There is a difference between The Daily Mail or other tabloids and The Washington Post or The Guardian. That difference is that, in the former, profit motive, outrage, and clicks motivate things. In the latter, journalists are trained and follow basic standards of ethical practice. Journalism, as distinct from the media, is a self-correcting enterprise. Journalists check each others work, which is how you overcome confirmation bias.
The other issue is that people conflate opinion and commentary for things like investigative journalism. And they project their negative feelings for opinions they disagree with onto the factual, investigative, and news reporting that quality news sources provide. We all have news sources that we trust more than others - if yours tends to agree with your views more than it disagrees, there's a good chance your choice in what media is "trustworthy" is simply that you're picking news you agree with. If your news sources often have stories that challenge your views, that's a good sign that your media is unbiased.
el_super
Well-Known Member
I think generally they get more things right than they get wrong. There are still consequences to out right lying in the media, and even those media outlets that want to steer the conversation rather than report, will just ignore stories than outright lie about them.
This whole thing is just sad! Honestly I was very naïve when the vaccinations came around but I thought by the end of summer we would basically be back to normal. It looks like things were really improving and MAYBE if it wasn't for the new variant it wouldn't be so bad even with less vaccinations. But here we are. Now we're talking about wearing masks again and while I don't THINK it will happen, maybe even shut downs in certain parts of the country. PLEASE don't let that happen again!
I found out there are people from other countries (ie rich people) who are now taking trips to America just to get vaccinated even if they have to stay a few weeks to do it. And yet people who actually live here and can get it today are denying it for eye rolling ridiculous reasons. If people are TRULY concerned about possible side effects in the future, OK, that I can understand. Everything else, just plain lunacy, especially with all the misinformation out there.
To be fair people are still getting vaccinated everyday but clearly not enough. Just get vaccinated! Most countries would give anything right now to have the access we have to turn it around. And yet...
I found out there are people from other countries (ie rich people) who are now taking trips to America just to get vaccinated even if they have to stay a few weeks to do it. And yet people who actually live here and can get it today are denying it for eye rolling ridiculous reasons. If people are TRULY concerned about possible side effects in the future, OK, that I can understand. Everything else, just plain lunacy, especially with all the misinformation out there.
To be fair people are still getting vaccinated everyday but clearly not enough. Just get vaccinated! Most countries would give anything right now to have the access we have to turn it around. And yet...
SoCalDisneyLover
Well-Known Member
I completely agree. You explain it very well.
I don't think that places like Disneyland will be shut again. I'm not even sure how much the parks are going to limit capacity over the remaining summer weeks. Everyone is getting geeked for the Halloween stuff, and I'm beginning to wonder whether that's such a good idea. I expect those will go forward as well.
Those who want to get back to normal, as if everything is fine, while not getting vaccinated nor wearing a mask, can have their way. The rest of us who did get shots, can choose whether we want to wear a mask when around others. I plan to start doing that religiously again. Absolutely indoors, and it's looking more and more like outdoors is a good idea too.
The way Delta is hitting, and the way people are behaving, a lot of unvaccinated adults are going to die. And a large # of vaccinated are going to get mild to medium cases of Covid. Sadly, some may die, but that will be dwarfed by the # of unvaccinated that are going to die each day for the next couple of months. It's the choice they've made, and it's what they want. And the big Corporations like Disney are done with shutdowns, capacity limits, social distancing and to some extent, masks. That is why the parks will remain open, concerts and sporting events will be at full capacity, while 1,000, 1,500, 2000+ people are dying each day from Covid.
It will be the new normal. A constant deluge of death amongst the unvaccinated might be the only thing that could change people's minds at this point. Can't say that it necessarily will, nonetheless, their deaths will bring us that much closer to herd immunity.
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October82
Well-Known Member
For those who are immunocompromised, or for those who our society has always left behind, it isn't a choice and it isn't what they want. I'm not saying you're wrong about what will happen but we shouldn't lose sight of how horrible dying from Covid is, and how much of a tragedy the pandemic has been for the families of hundreds of thousands of people.
smooch
Well-Known Member
Interesting, I hadn't seen this. Thank you for sharing, I knew the rate was rising before the pandemic and had assumed the pandemic just coincided with a rising rate and wasn't the cause of it, so it's good to hear it actually went down. I thought it was insane though they said the calls received by the suicide hotline increased by 891% in March of 2020, very sad but makes a lot of sense given everything that happened around that time.
I don't think we are going to see near the deaths you think there will be; however, I do think overall you are closer to the truth than not.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Last week I decamped down to San Diego County for the rest of the summer. It's just as maskless and unregulated here as it was up in OC.
For those out of towners keeping score at home, Los Angeles County is still the only county in SoCal with any sort of mask mandate.
And here is an update on the vaccination rates for LA County. As always, the vaccination rates are very clearly defined by race and class. Middle and upper class Whites and Asians are very highly vaccinated, while middle and working class Blacks and Latinos are quite noticeably under vaccinated. In LA and California as a whole, your race and your zip code tell the story.
Asians = 76% Fully Vaccinated
Whites = 67% Fully Vaccinated
Latinos = 55% Fully Vaccinated
Blacks = 46% Fully Vaccinated
Wealthy and overwhelmingly white and Asian zip codes along the coast and in the hills have vaccination rates above 90%. But go inland a few miles and the poor zip codes of south and central LA County have very low vaccination rates of 50% or less. The racially diverse and solidly middle class zip codes of the eastern LA County valleys have vaccination rates around 75% and climbing.
And what's with Catalina Island? There's more buffalo there than humans, so not sure why the low vaccination rates out there.
As always, the LA County Covid Dashboard is a wealth of information and hard data on Covid vaccination rates in the massive county of over 10 Million people.
LA County COVID-19 Vaccine Dashboard - LA County Department of Public Health
publichealth.lacounty.gov
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