Can They Expand??

[maxairmike]

On
I am glad you posted the cost because so many here would not have believed me. A for Universal they have a major advertising campaign going on in New York advertising Universal California.

I read that cost on here somewhere. But it just seems way to high for me. I mean I get expensive but $100 million per mile, that just seems insanely high. I do not know construction very well but to my layman mind it just seems crazy.

As I said in my previous posts, the stated costs for monorails differ wildly depending where you read the info. Instead of blindly throwing out numbers, let's look at two systems, one proposed system, and one that is a brand new, up and running installation serving a massive city as a legit mass transit solution.

First up, a proposal for a monorail in Nashville. This would be a 30 mile system with a projected cost of $1 billion. That would make an overall cost per mile of about $33 million, or 1/3 the number most often thrown around here. Notice that a big cost savings stated in the article is the ownership of right of way. Someone would have to seriously cook the books to come up with another $67 million per mile in land costs for the stretch from current Universal to the area south of Lockheed.

Next, the new Sao Paulo system. This is one part of an overall mass transit system in the city, but it is still a pretty massive operation. It is a 17 mile system and pretty much state of the art top of the line from everything I have seen. The stated cost in the first article I found with a number is $1.44 billion, so taken as the total cost for the system (I have a feeling that number is a lot more than the actual project cost alone, but we'll go with it), that would give us a cost of about $84.7 million per mile. Closer to the number often tossed around here, but over $15 million/mile less is a significant savings on a project of such cost. I think a large part of this large cost also has to do with the number of trains on the system, 54 total trains!

Let's put these $/mile numbers into context for this project. The approximate distance from the current Universal central hub to the Destination Pkwy. intersection is 5mi. I'm going to assume the stated costs for both above systems would be a double rail, looped system, as that is the only way to run more than one train on a beam (leaving out switches for multiple trains on 1 beam for simplicity). Under the Nashville $/mile the cost for such a system would be $165/330 million (second number is if the mile count is taken each way, making round trip 10mi.). Using the Sao Paulo cost it would be $423.5/847 million.

However, as stated by @StageFrenzy, and as was mentioned by me, it could very well be another less costly elevated rail solution and not a monorail, but it will in all probability be elevated.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Universal is about to open a highly customized elevated cable car. The costs must not be too ridiculous.

 

[seascape]

The front of ride system as it is called is not really a system. The rides and attractions are not combined. at universal you can't schedule times. Each ride is separate.

Now let's look at the future and the idea that Universal will continue to build resort hotels at the deluxe level. Let's say they have 8000 deluxe hotel room with an average of 2 people in them. That is 16000 people a day with unlimited front of line access. Then add with the number of season passes which include front of line access after 4PM, whats left for all the other customers? And that is not even taking into account the vacationers who don't mind spending a little more for an day or two of it. Right now Universal says each park draws about 10 million each in attendance. I don't know how nany visit both parks in the same day but given the size, let's figure half, I think it's much higher because everyone I know buys the 2 park ticket and goes to both and it use the hogwarts train for free you have to have that ticket. That means the actual attendance for the 2 parks is 15 million or 41000 a day. If you dould that to 82000 a day in the next 10 years where do you put the people and how long will the lines be? They would have to pit in a new system to better manage the crowds and what system can do that?

 

[marni1971]

They would have to pit in a new system to better manage the crowds and what system can do that?

A system where there are so many high quality attractions that aside from new openings, crowd are spread evenly.

Expect complimentary front of line not to last forever.

 

[seascape]

Okay so Universal will eliminate any type of fast pass, will use busses and no one will complain. Everyone will also be very happy paying more for it since they force people into buying park to park passes. You are absolutely correct Universal is smarter and better than Disney and everyone will love the lines. Universal will never stop building new attractions and they will all be wonderful.

 

[maxairmike]

The front of ride system as it is called is not really a system. The rides and attractions are not combined. at universal you can't schedule times. Each ride is separate.

Now let's look at the future and the idea that Universal will continue to build resort hotels at the deluxe level. Let's say they have 8000 deluxe hotel room with an average of 2 people in them. That is 16000 people a day with unlimited front of line access. Then add with the number of season passes which include front of line access after 4PM, whats left for all the other customers? And that is not even taking into account the vacationers who don't mind spending a little more for an day or two of it. Right now Universal says each park draws about 10 million each in attendance. I don't know how nany visit both parks in the same day but given the size, let's figure half, I think it's much higher because everyone I know buys the 2 park ticket and goes to both and it use the hogwarts train for free you have to have that ticket. That means the actual attendance for the 2 parks is 15 million or 41000 a day. If you dould that to 82000 a day in the next 10 years where do you put the people and how long will the lines be? They would have to pit in a new system to better manage the crowds and what system can do that?

To the bolded: That person wasn't talking about Express, they were talking about the QBot system that Universal recently added (in 2012 or early 2013 I believe). It isn't heavily advertised or used, but it is there as a viable option for both parks. This is likely to be the successor system to Express.

 

[TubaGeek]

Okay so Universal will eliminate any type of fast pass, will use busses and no one will complain. Everyone will also be very happy paying more for it since they force people into buying park to park passes. You are absolutely correct Universal is smarter and better than Disney and everyone will love the lines. Universal will never stop building new attractions and they will all be wonderful.

Goodness!
In your snark, you're mostly (roughly) right. But expect less busses eventually, no one is being FORCED to buy two-park tickets, and the lines are usually a bit more tolerable than Disney's, especially with the amazing queues.

 

[BigTxEars]

A system where there are so many high quality attractions that aside from new openings, crowd are spread evenly.

Expect complimentary front of line not to last forever.

I am not sure it's that easy. As the parks grow and more rides are open the crowds could grow at a rate that outpaces the rides and thus you have the same issues with lines. What could very well occur is what you see at Uni even today, where Potter is much more crowded than other areas of the park overall. That does help lines in other areas but does not resolve the issues in the heavily visited areas. It will be interesting to see what the new expansion does with crowds as it takes Potter to both parks.

I would also think that losing EP as a perk would hurt resort business at Uni, not sure they would do that to themselves. There are so many hotels in that immediate area that Uni has to offer something to it's guest to draw them in to the higher priced rooms. Early/late park entry like WDW does might be a solution for them.

 

[marni1971]

I know. The *edit* front of line express pass program is kind of like free dining for example..... It's been offered for so long people now expect it and it can't be stopped, despite needing to be. People get paid more money than we do to figure it out!

 

[BigTxEars]

I know. The early entry program is kind of like free dining for example..... It's been offered for so long people now expect it and it can't be stopped, despite needing to be. People get paid more money than we do to figure it out!

Yeah, that would be a sweet job to have, working out perks at the parks

Who knows, I mean technology change so rapidly who know what we will be doing as far as lines in 5 years. Nobody like lines of course but they are a good time to just bond with the family, we have had some really good times waiting in line in fact

 

[seascape]

the early entry is more like the extra magic hours at WDW. If you stay on site you get extra hours in the parks before or after regular hours. The free dining is an extra benefit for staying during certain times of the year, i.e. slow times. As soon as Universal has enough hotels and needs to offer more benefits during slow times they will probably offer free dining also. The biggest problem with this is that once its offered people want it every year and it becomes like 0% on car loans. Too many people do not realize nothing is for free and its included in the rates. Just like free parking or fron of the line access. Nothing in life is free

 

[marni1971]

My mistake. I meant to write front of line and not early entry.

I dare say Comcast won't make the same mistake with free dining.

 

[Hobnail Boot]

After reading this and other threads about Uni's future plans, it makes me wonder what would have happened if Comcast had purchased Disney all those years ago. Back then I was vehemently against it, now I look at Uni and am envious. I won't stop going to WDW because I still enjoy it, but I will be spending more of my Disney time at Uni if they keep up these expansion plans.

 

[marni1971]

After reading this and other threads about Uni's future plans, it makes me wonder what would have happened if Comcast had purchased Disney all those years ago. Back then I was vehemently against it, now I look at Uni and am envious. I won't stop going to WDW because I still enjoy it, but I will be spending more of my Disney time at Uni if they keep up these expansion plans.

Back then... anyone's guess.

Potter was already in the mix when Comcast became full owners of Uni. At the time it was known as Unis last stand. Make or break. Luckily it made and didn't break, and Comcast saw the wisdom of investing big to get far more back.

If they'd have realised this with the Disney parks is unknown.

 

[BigTxEars]

My mistake. I meant to write front of line and not early entry.

I dare say Comcast won't make the same mistake with free dining.

They recently changed their meal plan to model after the Disney version, I can see them doing a version of free dining as well. It draws in guest for WDW and I think it would for Uni as well.

 

[BigTxEars]

After reading this and other threads about Uni's future plans, it makes me wonder what would have happened if Comcast had purchased Disney all those years ago. Back then I was vehemently against it, now I look at Uni and am envious. I won't stop going to WDW because I still enjoy it, but I will be spending more of my Disney time at Uni if they keep up these expansion plans.

IMO Comcast is only spending at Uni to try and catch some of the business that WDW has to grow their business. If they had purchased WDW I am not so sure they would have spent in the parks because they then would have already been the market leader. Not saying they would not but just not sure they would have based on what they have done at Uni recently. Who knows for sure.

 

[lazyboy97o]

They recently changed their meal plan to model after the Disney version, I can see them doing a version of free dining as well. It draws in guest for WDW and I think it would for Uni as well.

People does not always equal money.

 

[BigTxEars]

People does not always equal money.

?

If it draws in guest to the Uni resorts I can see them doing it, it draws in guest at WDW why would it be different at Uni? As far as making money off of it I would guess that they could just as WDW does. Who knows for sure though.

 

[lazyboy97o]

?

If it draws in guest to the Uni resorts I can see them doing it, it draws in guest at WDW why would it be different at Uni? As far as making money off of it I would guess that they could just as WDW does. Who knows for sure though.

Disney hates free dining because it has conditioned people to expect pay less. It doesn't help the all important guest spending numbers. Universal Orlando Resort isn't interested in following Disney down the path of just getting more bodies.

 

[BigTxEars]

Disney hates free dining because it has conditioned people to expect pay less. It doesn't help the all important guest spending numbers. Universal Orlando Resort isn't interested in following Disney down the path of just getting more bodies.

Where did you see that Disney hated free dinning? I have not seen that.