A Spirited Summer Special (AKA Phil Holmes Takes Anaheim!)

[jlsHouston]

Do you own/operate one or more of these stores in Disney Springs? Because I can't think of another reason why you would so fervently defend it against reliable insider information.

I can think of a reason one might defend the stores in DS. She shops. I shop too. The few stores I was able to slide into this past June certainly had merchandise I would purchase had I not had 5 grandkids in tow cramping my ability to properly browse, select and purchase.

 

[Disone]

I started my "digestion" of this information with Disney Springs vs the economy. DS has: 105 Shopping venues, 50 Dining options, 12 Entertainment venues and 3 Activities including their Grand Opening celebration. It also has, inadequate parking for local traffic, overprices everything, lots and lots of single line "designer" type stores requiring you to compare building to building and it is spread out over miles.

When economic factors impacted travel in 2009 for a number of years, many of the first victims in our area were high end stores and restaurants in saturated markets. Not everyone would survive. But, we are not Orlando. The leases are what? 18 months? I don't believe there is a waiting list for vendor space and shuttered stores will make the place look tacky. A few closed venues won't look too bad. An idea for a store failed. A lot of venues? Disney Springs concept failed.

On to research more stuff....

How does Disney spring have inadequate parking for local traffic? The first parking garage pretty much fixed that. The 2nd parking garage may have actually been Overkill but will wait till holiday season to make that determination.. And the off ramp directly into the first parking garage is a huge benefit too locals. For resort guests, the new bus terminal and the dedicated bus lane getting to and from it has cut down Transportation time tremendously. Busses no longer get stuck in traffic. And there is still traffic but usually it's to get out of Disney Springs not to get into it. I'm sure that will be remedied once the 536 and Lake Buena Vista Drive interchange is complete. There are a lot of complaints about Disney Springs that I get, but I truly think they deserve credit for fixing the parking and fixing the transportation.

That said, I don't particularly like Town Center but all the other parts of Disney Springs are really excellent. It's my pains me to admit that because I was one of those that said closing Pleasure Island was a big mistake. I have to eat my words now because as a local I can tell you there is definitely local Buzz about Disney Springs. Personally I also find myself going to the place a lot more than just Thursday nights at Pleasure Island. And finally to the naked eye it's a lot busier than Downtown Disney was. But I agree that the final and last piece, Town Center, was a little disappointing. At least to me.

Now another part I also disagree (tongue in cheek now) with you is the question you asked about which Leases are not going to be around in 18 months. In the case of town center I feel you're being far too generous. I really think it's only going to be 6 months or less before we start seeing some of the original stores Calling it Quits. My money is on Melissa shoes being the first to go.

But how did this thread go from Phil Holmes being in Anaheim to a debate about Disney Springs? I don't know but i certainly fell into that trap .

I believe that phil has been pulled over to the Anaheim parks for benchmarking. I just hope that it's truly in the spirit of learning what it is that they do right that can be implemented at Walt Disney World. It's not fair that Disneyland gets higher quality just because they have to cater to repeat visitors. The guest, the visitor, whether they are repeat or first-time visitors, deserves the same Disney quality.

 

[Stitchon]

I've said this before, but on the subject of Disney Springs: leases for retail centers typically span five to ten years with multiple renewal options. Retailers aren't dumb, they know the markets they enter and it's a substantial investment to open a store no matter the location.
The question will be if Disney gets off their high horse and offers rent reductions to tenants who allegedly want to jump ship.

 

[marni1971]

Like most of the Brexit fears, I think they are highly overplayed by clickbait journalists.

The Pound hit a low of $1.38 back in February '16 when Brexit wasn't a thing and many Brits began dreaming up their summer vacation plans. After a few weeks of Brexit shock and this week's announcement of the new Prime Minister the Pound is up to $1.33 today, with futures sentiment that there's more strength ahead.

That's a 5 cent drop from February's low that shouldn't impact flip-flop sales too much.

The exchange rate is indeed causing a lot of concern over here. My circle of random Orlando fan friends are noticeably worried, tightening their belts, or deferring the next visit.

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

But you voted remain so there's a vested interest in looking for the wurst.

 

[Suspirian]

Kinda sad to hear that Ghost Galaxy may not return, I really enjoy that overlay. Hyperspace Mountain is just as fun though so I wouldn't mind too much. I would really like if they put as much effort into Halloween offerings as they do Christmas time because the resort is lacking that, especially DCA. Also, I'm kinda interested in seeing peoples thoughts if/ when the GOTG overlay is announced. The rumor seems to have gotten around through twitter posts and other articles and it doesn't seem like people are too pleased. Most of the people I've talked about it to aren't really fond of the idea either. Are there any updates on the actual story of the attraction @WDW1974 ?

 

[Bolna]

Some cherry-picked data from ~2012 on intl tourists, who spend ~3x more than domestic tourists. 'Trip' = vacation and not shopping trip. And I think it is for 'travel party' and not individual. And this is for shopping, not dining. I will update/ correct if I made errors or if I can find the domestic tourist #s or avg spend for Brazil.
Avg: Mx $1,310; Germany $1,085; UK $968; Canada $757;

And that's where the problem lies: Those visitors all have to exchange their home currency for dollars. And if you look at numbers from 2016 as compared to 2012, the same amount of local currency from 2012 will buy far fewer dollars in 2016. I used the exchange rates from today and 7/13/2012 to compare and if you adjust to today's exchange rate and assume that the same amount of Euro, British Pound and Canadian Dollar will be spend by the tourist, today's numbers would be:
Germany: $984 (9.3% decrease), UK: $820 (15.3% decrease), Canada: $591 (22% decrease)

If you then also consider that certain costs of the vacation are rather fixed (like theme park tickets, hotel and food) and therefore require a bigger share of vacation spending, I would argue that the real drop of money being spend on shopping my international tourists if even bigger. Getting into the international tourist shopping business is a risky thing. There will be really great years, but also really bad years as exchange rates are so volatile.

 

[WDW1974]

Just got confirmation but expect some 'rearranging' in Anaheim tomorrow.

I think it will be safe to say that after these changes that One Disney is officially dead, even though TDO will probably act like it is business as usual.

 

[WDW1974]

Oh, and funny story about Disney and how one branch of the company, despite its storied history where you'd almost think it coined the term 'synergy', doesn't know what another is planning.

But DLR marketing was planning on using Tower of Terror as a centrepiece of its Halloweentime ad campaign. Apparently, Colglazier and Co were so busy crowing about bastardizing a classic attraction with Marvel IP that the word this was happening just never filtered out. So imagine the joy in a department that can't use ToT in its marketing and doesn't know whether it can use Ghost Galaxy yet either.

Nope, you really can't make this stuff up (well, we know some bloggers who do, but you know what I mean!)

 

[WDW1974]

Speaking of housing, I am left baffled when I see the amount of "luxury housing" being thrown up all over the place down here. It boggles the mind because, based simply off of living here for a year, not many folks in Central FL can afford that type of housing. Makes me miss the "outrageous" rent I paid when I lived in the mountains.

I said this about 18 months ago when I went for a drive past the ghost town that was, is and will remain Flamingo Crossing (at least until Disney builds cheap apartments for its slave labor force on some of it) and to a few miles west, area that remained almost totally unchanged since Disney arrived, and saw massive land clearing and housing developments going up on former citrus groves ... most starting in the high 300s to over a million. I even toured a few model homes because a favourite O-Town fanboi loves doing so and he's a good kid, just a little insane, so I indulged. I just would love to know where the people and the jobs necessary to buy and maintain a $898,000 lakefront estate home are coming from. Is this simply an excuse to allow wealthy Chinese and Russians a chance to buy up huge swaths of real estate after the next plunge? (something I saw happening hugely in Las Vegas in 2011)

Because even if you have a good by O-Town standards job, you can't afford this type of real estate.

 

[WDW1974]

The mens store at GF is mainly where I ever saw it

It's at every deluxe resort shop and DVC shop ... not sure about below. They also are manufacturing their own Disney line, which was part of the deal for signing a lease at DS. But I have seen their stuff at Cast Connection for years. I've even thought of buying some ... but then realised that their own outlets in the area are selling for the same or lower prices. And, no matter what you think of the brand, their clothes are way too upscale for most lifestylers.

 

[WDW1974]

@WDW1974 - how many losing Los Angeles sports bids does Bob Iger want to be a part of?

http://variety.com/2016/biz/news/bob-ager-walt-disney-co-olympics-1201812677/

If Bob helps bring the Games to LA, and I hope the bid is successful because I am tired of seeing them go to cities based almost entirely on payoffs (hey, RIO ... how you doing?!), then he can use it as a springboard toward a Senate campaign that really is sounding like what's next for The Weatherman.

 

[WDW1974]

On the one hand, it is of course great to hear that someone higher up might at least entertain the notion of WDW's quality having hit the bottom of the barrel. Especially if they're actually trying to get it back up to snuff with how Disneyland handles things.

On the other hand, BURBANK ARE THE ONES WHO ORDERED WDW TO BE RUN INTO THE GROUND IN THE FIRST PLACE!!! While i'm sure Orlando management shoulders some responsibility, it sounds like Burbank ordered the lionshare of cuts at WDW for the past several years-
http://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/...-resorts-thanks-to-shanghai-and-paris.909756/

Correct me if i'm wrong @WDW1974 or anyone else who has the scoop, but it sounds like Orlando are just following orders. While i'm on board with better training (perhaps it could help a little), if Burbank keeps the purse firmly closed and constantly barks orders to cut cut cut then how much could this really help? It seems very contradictory and ignorant from someone like Chappie. "Stop cleaning the parks and fixing rides, you're wasting money! Hey, why are your parks and rides in such horrid shape? Do you need lessons on how to clean and repair stuff?!" I almost suspect political shenanigans going on upstairs, setting lower level fall guys up so highers can avoid responsibility... Otherwise they either have some sort of bipolar problem going on upstairs, or Dory's severe short term memory loss...

It's like an architect ordering his subordinates to use extremely poor materials and hire unqualified workers. Then being surprised and angry at your subordinates when it starts to have major issues and falls apart. Yelling at THEM for being too stupid and incompetent for using bad materials and workers...Hey isn't that exactly what happened with Shanghai Disneyland? Seeing a pattern of childish stupidity and blame shifting here...

So forgive me if I don't believe this will work with execs withholding budgets and continuing to order cuts. If someone has a better perspective of how much responsibility Orlando management really shares for the state of WDW (as opposed to Burbank), then please let me know. But from what i've heard from recent years, they really don't seem to have much of a say in matters anymore and are just following orders.

Shanghai cuts at WDW and DL were a 2015-16 phenomenon. Just that.

And, yes, they were ordered from the highest levels of the company. Absolutely.

But how the resort is run on a day-to-day period is an ongoing effort, something before #ThanksShanghai and after. And there are many ways to make the bottom line look better without touching the Guest experience. The amount of bloat and waste at TDO is mind boggling at times (it does resemble our government often).

So, there's no contradiction at all, really.

Chappie just wants WDW run more like DL. That isn't a bad thing, by and large.

 

[WDW1974]

BTW, while this may irritate some fans- I wasn't super impressed with Ample Hills Creamery. It's perfectly valid if you like it. It's quality ice cream, but definitely not the best i've had and absolutely not worth the money. While the flavors are rather unique, the quality of the ice cream itself tasted comparable to Häagen-Dazs (not the grocery kind, the parlor). Haven't visited a Ben & Jerry's parlor since the late 90's (so don't quote me on it having held up in quality during the past 16+ years) but that was also comparable in quality when I had it.

The best ice cream i've had was in Chicago and France. Homemade is also fantastic (it's easy to make, a machine does all the work and just toss in whatever flavors you like, it's a good way to control the quality of your ingredients and can be quite inexpensive).

Heck when I was growing up the ice cream on Main Street (Magic Kingdom) was delicious. Butter Pecan was a fav. I don't like it anymore, it's Edy's now and used to be sponsored by a different company back then (which I can't recall, was during the early-mid 90's if anyone knows).

I am currently on holiday in Europe and I find the average gelato stand in pretty much anytown, any country, to have better stuff than what people rave about in the USA ... oh, usually for about 1€ a scoop (albeit a smaller one than the ginormous ones Americans are used to).

I have no doubt that Ample Hills will be hugely successful because Bob Iger love them and picked them himself and they have a great location and captive audience. I just know I'll be happier driving to the Friendly's on I-Drive near the CC for a $5 sundae.

The issue I have with any of these places (add that cupcake ATM joint and the obscenely priced chocolate shop) is that the bloggers, most of whom could lose 75 pounds here or 100 pounds there, just jump on the BRAND advocacy bandwagon and sell their flocks on Disney's talking points.

Chances are if most Lifestylers are loving something, then it's vastly overrated.

 

[WDW1974]

Spirit, MID Summer 2017 for DL's F! ?!?!?!?! It should be ready by Memorial Weekend 2017! Would be nice if it made it's 25th Birthday(May 13....I think?)or ASAP in my mind!

Have you heard anything about ROL?

A mess. Hopefully, by late fall. I have no idea why Disney consistently can't bring product to market in a timely fashion, despite spending insane sums of capital.

 

[WDW1974]

Hey Spirit!

This very much matches info I've seen/heard both anecdotally and read confidentially. Can't say more, but It's not exclusively a Disney issue. And it is too soon to factor in much reaction to Pulse & the gator. Will be interesting to see how things shake out. May not be a pretty Earnings conference call August 9th.

Greetings, Mr. Pilcher!

Yes, this is by no means a Disney issue alone. This is an economic reality. UNI, on both coasts, is struggling as well ... almost shockingly so with Potter in its first summer in Hollywood.

People keep pretending that the US economy is fine, when it isn't. It just isn't!

 

[WDW1974]

You mentioned canaries in coal mines, but Nordstrom leaving the Orlando market two years ago and abandoning its 174,000 square foot building was the biggest canary there is. When the suberbly managed Nordstrom execs in Seattle decide its time to pack up and vacate your city, you know things aren't as rosy as your Chamber of Commerce wants them to seem.

Orlando is left with one Nordstrom Rack outlet, the exact same footprint Nordstrom has in Boise, Idaho. As a point of reference, within a 20 mile radius of Disneyland in Orange County, California there are six Nordstrom department stores and three Nordstrom Racks. (Plus a gaggle of Bloomingdales', Neimans', and a Saks)

And yet TDO thinks Disney Springs can support all these upscale restaurants and boutiques that will need locals to help pencil out the books for half the year? How do you do that when your local market demographics appear to be equitable in spending power to Boise, Idaho?

Are you suggesting that Disney Springs wasn't well thought out? That this 8-plus years in the making Extreme Makeover: Lifestyle Center Edition may not have been the Sheriff's finest hour? Oh, pish-posh, folks are planning trips around visiting and this place is changing locals shopping habits doncha know?

Who would think a community where a vast segment of workers don't even make $10 an hour, let alone $20 or $30 couldn't support upscale shopping?

Oh yeah, anyone like myself that has spent copious amounts of time in both Orange Counties!

 

[wdisney9000]

Chances are if most Lifestylers are loving something, then it's vastly overrated.

There are a few, (as in 2 or 3) lifestylers who have a respectable and subtle way of promoting, but the majority have the promtional skills of an 8 year old running a lemonade stand.

 

[UpAllNight]

Well I'm already booked for 2017 pre Brexit but several friends aren't and they're keeping a close eye on the dollar.

We still get what I consider a good deal on multi day tickets...works out at £370 for 21 day Disney pass. A quick look on Google tells me is currently $490 (not sure how that compares for you yanks, but it includes memory maker, which is a nice addition as a tourist)

I think a lot of Brits will still head there in 2017...maybe they'll just downgrade hotel somewhat. There's a massive difference in price between staying on I drive and on Disney....and there's plenty going on around Pointe to make it a memorable holiday.

 

[Bocabear]

Well I'm already booked for 2017 pre Brexit but several friends aren't and they're keeping a close eye on the dollar.

We still get what I consider a good deal on multi day tickets...works out at £370 for 21 day Disney pass. A quick look on Google tells me is currently $490 (not sure how that compares for you yanks, but it includes memory maker, which is a nice addition as a tourist)

I think a lot of Brits will still head there in 2017...maybe they'll just downgrade hotel somewhat. There's a massive difference in price between staying on I drive and on Disney....and there's plenty going on around Pointe to make it a memorable holiday.

Wait....did you say a 21day pass? That is unheard of to an American....