A Spirited Summer Special (AKA Phil Holmes Takes Anaheim!)

[MrHappy]

"Disney Springs was always intended to be a supplement to the theme park experience, much like the themed hotels around property that also don't "scream" Disney to some."

I actually think the supplement is the other way around. Disney Springs is not just for those staying at the resorts and going to parks who feel the need to leave the WDW bubble, but for locals but MORE so, I believe, all the convention goers and business entertainment needs in the area. I don't have the #s, but I'd say millions of business travelers go to Orlando for trade shows throughout the year and client entertainment and company parties is basically a must.right of passage. Disney wants in on this supplemental revenue - this is a place for businessman/woman gluttony - where expense forms go on vacation.

 

[MrHappy]

I actually think the supplement is the other way around. Disney Springs is not just for those staying at the resorts and going to parks who feel the need to leave the WDW bubble, but for locals but MORE so, I believe, all the convention goers and business entertainment needs in the area. I don't have the #s, but I'd say millions of business travelers go to Orlando for trade shows throughout the year and client entertainment and company parties is basically a must.right of passage. Disney wants in on this supplemental revenue - this is a place for businessman/woman gluttony - where expense forms go on vacation. (sorry posted, this in the "reply"...i know)

 

[SorcererMC]

I wish I could provide the link. This is a good article. These communities all shop at the mall at millennia. And they're all doing much better now than they were just a few years ago.
View attachment 150990

Those are the high-income communities; compare to county avg home-sales prices: $154,000 in Osceola, $165,000 in Lake, $175,000 in Orange and $186,000 in Seminole. (2015; OS December article, no link b/c from my notes).

Re: high-end retail vs. outlet mall from 2013 data (maybe), just an example for the sake of comparison.
Mall at Millenia ($1,595 sales per square foot) vs. Orlando Premium Outlets ($990 sales per square foot)
______________________
Real estate and retail is outside of my comfort zone, but these are the commonly used metrics. FL is having an in-migration on avg of 170,000 annually, and Florida added 365,700 residents in the year ending July 1, 2015 w/ FL population at 20 mln. I assume that an increasing number or most of those incoming residents are wealthy and driving the growth in those high-income communities.

Whether it is sufficient to drive spending at Disney Springs? I have no idea.
Edit: Or otherwise compensate for the drop in intl tourists? Still don't know.

 

[SorcererMC]

I don't have the #s, but I'd say millions of business travelers go to Orlando for trade shows throughout the year and client entertainment and company parties is basically a must.right of passage

Volume of [ all FL] business travelers = 9+ mln and accounts for 11% of all Florida visitation. Business travelers spend more per day $260 vs. domestic leisure traveler $115, including transportation [VisitFL]

Anecdotally - I agree on the rite of passage, also Tampa so Central FL in general.

 

[21stamps]

Those are the high-income communities; compare to county avg home-sales prices: $154,000 in Osceola, $165,000 in Lake, $175,000 in Orange and $186,000 in Seminole. (2015; OS December article, no link b/c from my notes).

Re: high-end retail vs. outlet mall from 2013 data (maybe), just an example for the sake of comparison.
Mall at Millenia ($1,595 sales per square foot) vs. Orlando Premium Outlets ($990 sales per square foot)
______________________
Real estate and retail is outside of my comfort zone, but these are the commonly used metrics. FL is having an in-migration on avg of 170,000 annually, and Florida added 365,700 residents in the year ending July 1, 2015 w/ FL population at 20 mln. I assume that an increasing number or most of those incoming residents are wealthy and driving the growth in those high-income communities.

Whether it is sufficient to drive spending at Disney Springs? I have no idea.

The article was stating that the overall housing market is up...way beyond what it was 4 years ago. It cited those communities as helping raise the average. The huge difference between Mall at Millenia shoppers, and the Premium Outlet shoppers is tourism. A TON of tourists, in state visitors as well, will go to those outlets, many more than will go to the Mall at Millenia. Mainly because outlet malls (with the same brand outlet stores as Orlando) aren't as common elsewhere as the stores in Mall at Millenia are.

Disney Springs isn't targeting the Louis Vuitton and Gucci crowd. They are targeting 'trendy' people of all income levels.

Re the bolded: It's tough to lump "Florida" statistics into relating to one area. It's a huge state, with vastly different demographics.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Hard to get excited about this. Disneyland Resort being a little bit cleaner doesn't fix creative bankruptcy.

It's like an architect ordering his subordinates to use extremely poor materials and hire unqualified workers. Then being surprised and angry at your subordinates when it starts to have major issues and falls apart. Yelling at THEM for being too stupid and incompetent for using bad materials and workers...Hey isn't that exactly what happened with Shanghai Disneyland? Seeing a pattern of childish stupidity and blame shifting here...

Owners, not the architect, hires the contractor and in most cases the contractor actually chooses the materials. China is not a direct parallel because of the requirement to go through a limited number of architectural firms (LDIs) and other bureaucracy such as CSEI.

 

[SorcererMC]

Disney Springs isn't targeting the Louis Vuitton and Gucci crowd. They are targeting 'trendy' people of all income levels.

As a new development, I doubt they are targeting all income levels; they would want to attract the visitor that will spend the most at the fastest rate possible to get a return on the investment as quickly as possible. This really comes down to the volume of sales (qty) combined with the prices to profit-max revenue. It's possible that a large volume of mid-range sales would = middle volume of high-end sales. They are going to want the highest volume of high-end sales for the highest revenue.

Orlando is now a year-round tourist destination with international cache (I know you find that hard to believe, but that is what their marketing materials reflect since at least 2013).
How reliable or dependable that is within the context of the intl economy and its current issues? Unknown.

 

[KikoKea]

I am also confused as to what the draw would be for that kind of shopping while on vacation in the first place. High-end retail is not exactly hard to come by these days. Aside from guests coming from more rural areas, why would a vacationer do high-end shopping not specifically related to the vacation since they could do it at home?

I could see buying a Hawaiian shirt while in Maui, or even a WDW shirt while in Orlando, mementos can be nice. However, a pricey pair of sandals just doesn't show up on my radar as something worth getting while on vacation (unless I forgot to pack some or some similar situation).

Obviously everyone shops differently, but who is the intended demographic here?

I'm with you, and I don't think it is visitors from other nations buying all that stuff. Vacation-mentality spending frenzy, maybe? We might drop by DS in Sept to take a look around, but we never buy any of the boutique stuff...and rarely anything from the Disney stores. I was hoping they would have a moderately priced clothing store there, but appears it is all high end. Too bad.

And those TB shirts...we live on Oahu and DH wears Aloha (Hawaiian) shirts to work every day- not TB, though. Costco has Aloha shirts for $19.99 and they look great, wash well, and last forever.

 

[21stamps]

As a new development, I doubt they are targeting all income levels; they would want to attract the visitor that will spend the most at the fastest rate possible to get a return on the investment as quickly as possible. This really comes down to the volume of sales (qty) combined with the prices to profit-max revenue. It's possible that a large volume of mid-range sales would = middle volume of high-end sales. They are going to want the highest volume of high-end sales for the highest revenue.

Orlando is now a year-round tourist destination with international cache (I know you find that hard to believe, but that is what their marketing materials reflect since at least 2013).
How reliable or dependable that is within the context of the intl economy and its current issues? Unknown.

I don't find it hard to believe that Orlando is a year round destination from all different countries. I know it is.

People are making it sound like we're returning to the catastrophic times of 10 years ago. That isn't happening. Not even close. The market IS better. That is why the new stores at Disney Springs will be successful. Millions of people already shop at these stores across the nation, and internationally. But for some reason the theory of "These are high end stores aimed at rich travelers" is gaining traction. They aren't!! They aren't cheap stores, but they definitely aren't some highly exclusive products like people are making them out to be.

 

[zooey]

Yup, time for a bit of a summer special as Bob 'Chappie' Chapek -- the dude who heads Disney P&R, better known for his amazing ability to sell all things Marvel and make Ike 'I really don't like Bob Iger' Perlmutter a fan -- has been making all Florida based Disney execs VERY nervous with his well-known bias toward the way TDA runs its house.

And the first up to feel the heat is none other than our old, old, old pal Phil Holmes. You may remember him as the longtime VP of the MK as it truly reached new lows in his decade-plus leadership role. He was moved over to the Star Wars Construction Park (the one with no real name, identity or attractions) last year and is currently on a tour of the Anaheim parks, as well as WDI, to see why it is that they consistently do things better than their swamp-based-brethren.

Phil's itinerary has him first at DCA to look at Hyperion Theater and its new Frozen musical (I hear Olaf is great), the lousy Bob Iger IP homage known as World of Color, the Carthay Circle Restaurant and Lounge, and Mater's Junkyard Jamboree, and then looking at nearly everything at Disneyland. He's also spending time in Glendale to get an overview of Disneyland's Star Wars Experience plans since that land opens first. No, WDW's version remains solidly 18-24 months minimally behind DL's version.

But Phil will be getting a complete rundown by Imagineering on WDW's SWE plans and, as well as Disneyland Entertainment's plans to massively upgrade and freshen Fantasmic when it returns (mid?) next summer. This is part of a strategy direct from Chappie as Chapek favors the Anaheim way of doing things and according to someone with direct knowledge ''thinks the WDW operation has gotten sloppy and lazy and their execs need to spend more time in California to learn how the DLR is managed and operated. It's a message that is hard to swallow for many WDW folks, but Chapek is unrelenting and has made it clear he thinks Anaheim is doing it better. Phil Holmes is only the first in a series of WDW execs who will be making a pilgrimage to Anaheim soon.''

This really is major news because typically WDW execs simply don't visit their SoCal kewler cousins. From what I've been told, WDW execs are not handling this news any better than the typical blogger who doesn't make the cut for one of Dr. Blondie's patented Cupcake Soirees.

Phil MAY well be on scene for some much bigger news to drop regarding the future of DLR's President as well. It does appear that Mary Niven's quite amazing climb from being the only major Cynthia Harriss era survivor to Queen of the Kingdom appears about to become official.

If so, that obviously means the end of Michael Colglazier's tenure as DLR Prez. One largely met with a collective yawn by those who work for him and with him and the paying Guests.

At least he won't have to freak out every time someone leaks a story about turning the ToT into a cheap Marvel attraction (get in your rides by Labor Day to be safe, closing day looks to be 9/12 for reopening May of 2017) or a reporter looks at public documents and realizes that DL is adding another resort hotel or has bought additional property etc.

A few other DLR tidbits:

Parks on the left coast have also been very uncrowded this summer. Since there haven't been massive shootings, possibly with terrorist ties, or killer gator attacks on property, and since DLR doesn't have very large Brazilian or British tourist bases, one must wonder if Disney has finally hit the ceiling on what US consumers can or are willing to pay for a day (or more) of MAGIC.

No decision has been made on just how many years the 'Season' of the Force will run, but TDA planners are running up against a major deadline for deciding internally whether to remove the wildly popular Hyperspace Mountain overlay for the typical fall Ghost Galaxy overlay (think about that WDW fans as you always get the same experiences year after stale year ... no matter what my Lifestyler friends/Disney addicts will have you believe). Since GG is a major selling point of DL's Halloweentime event, planners are working up alternate cheap entertainment to toss in the park if management decides the Force will remain in Tomorrowland.

Other Spirited morsels:

Don't know if any of you paid attention last week to Herb Allen's mogul conference in Sun Valley, but "the oddly waifish man of anaemic personality" AKA Tom Staggs not only showed up for the event, but arrived with Disney execs, including the head of ESPN. One can only wonder if there was some sort of not so subtle message to Bob ... you know ... a "Have a MAGICal Day!" message from both his current and former execs.

Michael Eisner was there and told a few folks that he felt slighted for not getting a shout-out (and likely an official invite) from Disney on the Shanghai opening. He was not shy about telling others that Bob still made a mistake by not getting a media penetration deal in exchange for the park (at least off the record, naturally).

SDL appears to be on solid footing, but is not attracting the spectacular attendance or interest that Disney hoped for. Way too early to draw any conclusions beyond you really don't want to be in China in summer (unless your name is Dakota!)

At least things will remain consistent with Steven Spielberg and his very odd relationship with Disney as The BFG is turning into another disaster for Disney, and one they anticipated and helped bring about. Having 87 tent poles a year leaves little room for films that need space and time (and not commenting on merits of this one as I haven't seen it). But just like Disney let The Good Dinosaur and Alice Through the Looking Glass fail so that "more important to Bob's ego" films like The Force Awakens, Zootopia, Jungle Book, Cap America Civil War and Finding Dory could make their billions, the same is true of this movie that has no buzz at all. Disney does have hopes for Pete's Dragon, but certainly does't care about it like a Moana or a Rogue One. It's all about making sacrifices.

So Rose and Crown is following Le Cellier, Chefs de France and Crystal Palace (and whomever else I'm leaving out) with an all-day, screw the Guests, menu. That is how you increase revenue despite filling fewer tables and serving fewer people. Disney still doesn't fundamentally get this strategy can only last so long.

Oh, and I saw my friend @WDWFigment is at WDW again and was commenting on Ample Hills Creamery and how great it is. Sorry, but $11 ice cream cones are absurd. I better be getting a special from a fanboi on the side with that. Don't care how good it is. No ice cream is that good ... and this is a fundamental issue so many don't get. It's like Disney has out kicked its coverage to use a football analogy.

As to WDW and O-Town crowds, relatively speaking, this reminds me an awful lot of 2008. The economy had long crashed, credit markets were dry, homes were being lost, the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of mankind was happening and ... I took my usual visit to WDW in late October, after spending months in China, and the parks were packed. It seemed like business as usual because those trips were paid for, those credit cards that were going to go unpaid were going to go unpaid and those houses were going to be lost. People were having a bang before the bust. I returned to WDW in February of 2009 and it was a ghost town. Trips in July (including over the 4th) and December followed and the parks were, by O-Town standards, dead. Just a prediction but I think 2016 is the last bang before the next bust for a lot of people. And you can't keep having jobless recoveries as they are an oxymoron.

Sooner or later, the disastrous business model employed by WDW Co. will come home to roost and all the new timeshares they can build won't make a bit of a difference. I wonder what Disney Springs will look like when half of those new tenants are gone within 18 months of opening.

Anyway, just wanted to drop in with the WDW exec being schooled on the left coast news. May be around for a bit, but I am on holiday and don't necessarily expect me to respond or be back.

Great information here, man but you're wrong about one thing. Ample Hills IS worth it. Paid 20 bucks a pint to ship it to my house. Worth it. It's phenomenal. I will reject all ice cream purchases for months to save up for it if I have to.

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

I don't find it hard to believe that Orlando is a year round destination from all different countries. I know it is.

People are making it sound like we're returning to the catastrophic times of 10 years ago. That isn't happening. Not even close. The market IS better. That is why the new stores at Disney Springs will be successful. Millions of people already shop at these stores across the nation, and internationally. But for some reason the theory of "These are high end stores aimed at rich travelers" is gaining traction. They aren't!! They aren't cheap stores, but they definitely aren't some highly exclusive products like people are making them out to be.

Do you own/operate one or more of these stores in Disney Springs? Because I can't think of another reason why you would so fervently defend it against reliable insider information.

 

[alphac2005]

There are several very nice communities in Orlando-in the past 20 or so years people were actually moving there instead of just moving away.lol
I think you're underestimating the mindset of a typical Orlando Florida man or woman if you think they don't spend their money on a decent wardrobe.lol- at least in all of the newer areas.
The stores at Disney Springs are popular stores for most people, which already exist in almost every big city. I don't know why everyone is acting like they opened up some "only for the rich" outdoor mall. It isn't Worth Avenue, Bal Harbour, or Rodeo Drive.

I don't have a Sprinkles where I live..so I'm beyond thrilled to buy a cupcake there when visit WDW! The shopping I don't really care about, but the personalized hand painted Toms are on my radar.

I'm trying to remember the word of the week is "perception" though, and that I probably can't change someone's perception. So I'll leave it at that.

It's not like there aren't several of those places already in Central Florida, though. You and I know that there is a large segment of the local population that doesn't work in the service industry, theme parks, etc. and they have no interest in ever stepping foot on Disney property. You're right about the mix of shops, if you can afford the stuff and you come from somewhere else in the USA, you probably have those stores by you, so what's the appeal of shopping at the Disney Mall to buy what you can at home? We'll see. Disney Springs looks superb, but who knows about the business aspect of success with the retail locations over the long-term. There is no disputing that the dining spots are pricey for Central Florida standards and I can't imagine droves of locals visiting all too often for $10 ice cream cones and $15 burgers.

 

[21stamps]

Do you own/operate one or more of these stores in Disney Springs? Because I can't think of another reason why you would so fervently defend it against reliable insider information.

Nope don't own any of them. I'm also not wealthy, and I shop at pretty much all of those stores. I guess I'm defending a thought process of- Not everything is horrible bc it's new, or just because "you" personally don't like it.

 

[21stamps]

It's not like there aren't several of those places already in Central Florida, though. You and I know that there is a large segment of the local population that doesn't work in the service industry, theme parks, etc. and they have no interest in ever stepping foot on Disney property. You're right about the mix of shops, if you can afford the stuff and you come from somewhere else in the USA, you probably have those stores by you, so what's the appeal of shopping at the Disney Mall to buy what you can at home? We'll see. Disney Springs looks superb, but who knows about the business aspect of success with the retail locations over the long-term. There is no disputing that the dining spots are pricey for Central Florida standards and I can't imagine droves of locals visiting all too often for $10 ice cream cones and $15 burgers.

Agree. I don't think people will be flocking from Winter Park to go shopping in the crowds at Disney Springs. I do think a lot of tourists will though. I don't typically pay $14 for a funnel cake, but if I'm at an amusement park with my child I will. I also don't typically splurge on cupcakes, but if I'm in Chicago I do, and now I will at Disney Springs as well. Sadly, Sprinkles is what I'm most excited about lol

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

Nope don't own any of them. I'm also not wealthy, and I shop at pretty much all of those stores. I guess I'm defending a thought process of- Not everything is horrible bc it's new, or just because "you" personally don't like it.

That's not really the issue. The design of the place, while debatable, isn't why it isn't performing as Disney hoped. Disney Springs won't meet projections for its tenants because its opening was extremely ill-timed. If Disney had put on their big girl panties and fixed DTD right after decimating it in 2008 instead of waiting 8 years, they could have profited off of the recent boom times. But they didn't. They drug their feet and took forever, and now, the pendulum is swinging back. International tourism from Brazil and UK is trending downward, and those guests are Orlando/WDW's international bread and butter. They are the most likely to buy in these stores, and economic factors like exchange rates and prohibitive travel costs will keep that down.

WDW wants guests to overpay for hotel rooms ($129 for a motel room at A.S.S.!), food ($17 sandwiches in the MK!) and tickets. Unless you're in the wealthiest tax brackets here in the US, that doesn't leave much left to shop at luxury brand stores that you can find in most cities anyway. Domestic tourists don't go to Orlando for shopping, but international tourists make it a big part of their trip. Less of them means less money at Disney Springs. Little snack places like Sprinkles won't be affected on the scale that the large luxury brand stores will.

 

[21stamps]

That's not really the issue. The design of the place, while debatable, isn't why it isn't performing as Disney hoped. Disney Springs won't meet projections for its tenants because its opening was extremely ill-timed. If Disney had put on their big girl panties and fixed DTD right after decimating it in 2008 instead of waiting 8 years, they could have profited off of the recent boom times. But they didn't. They drug their feet and took forever, and now, the pendulum is swinging back. International tourism from Brazil and UK is trending downward, and those guests are Orlando/WDW's international bread and butter. They are the most likely to buy in these stores, and economic factors like exchange rates and prohibitive travel costs will keep that down.

WDW wants guests to overpay for hotel rooms ($129 for a motel room at A.S.S.!), food ($17 sandwiches in the MK!) and tickets. Unless you're in the wealthiest tax brackets here in the US, that doesn't leave much left to shop at luxury brand stores that you can find in most cities anyway. Domestic tourists don't go to Orlando for shopping, but international tourists make it a big part of their trip. Less of them means less money at Disney Springs. Little snack places like Sprinkles won't be affected on the scale that the large luxury brand stores will.

They aren't really luxury brand though. Most women in the country know about Sephora, if you read reviews of products on their website you will read women begging to open one in (insert town here), So for all of those people- and yes, I do think people from less metropolitan areas visit WDW, it's probably a good thing. If I forget my powder or lip gloss-it's also a good thing.
Serious question, what about Lego? We all (city people) probably have a Lego Store in our city, yet a lot of us let our kid purchase a new Lego set in Disney Springs.

 

[GiveMeTheMusic]

They aren't really luxury brand though. Most women in the country know about Sephora, if you read reviews of products on their website you will read women begging to open one in (insert town here), So for all of those people- and yes, I do think people from less metropolitan areas visit WDW, it's probably a good thing. If I forget my powder or lip gloss-it's also a good thing.
Serious question, what about Lego? We all (city people) probably have a Lego Store in our city, yet a lot of us let our kid purchase a new Lego set in Disney Springs.

Lego has been in DTD for what, 20+ years? It's weathered good times and bad times already and is a good fit. The brands that will have a harder time are places like Art of Shaving, Chapel Hats, Kate Spade, etc. Luxury brands, apparel and accessories in particular. Their presence in DS is aimed at international guests, and there are a lot less of those now and for the foreseeable future.

 

[Californian Elitist]

Change is coming in Anaheim ...

What kind of change? If it is similar to more IPs and less creativity in Disneyland, I'm not interested.

 

[Figments Friend]

"Spirited Change"



-

 

[jlsHouston]

BTW, while this may irritate some fans- I wasn't super impressed with Ample Hills Creamery. It's perfectly valid if you like it. It's quality ice cream, but definitely not the best i've had and absolutely not worth the money. While the flavors are rather unique, the quality of the ice cream itself tasted comparable to Häagen-Dazs (not the grocery kind, the parlor). Haven't visited a Ben & Jerry's parlor since the late 90's (so don't quote me on it having held up in quality during the past 16+ years) but that was also comparable in quality when I had it.

The best ice cream i've had was in Chicago and France. Homemade is also fantastic (it's easy to make, a machine does all the work and just toss in whatever flavors you like, it's a good way to control the quality of your ingredients and can be quite inexpensive).

Heck when I was growing up the ice cream on Main Street (Magic Kingdom) was delicious. Butter Pecan was a fav. I don't like it anymore, it's Edy's now and used to be sponsored by a different company back then (which I can't recall, was during the early-mid 90's if anyone knows).

Speaking of excellent ice cream, apparently Hershey's sells ice cream and it is fantastic....