A Spirited Summer Special (AKA Phil Holmes Takes Anaheim!)

[SorcererMC]

I had not considered international travelers. There could be significant issues with availability/pricing vs. the home country.

I was so stereo-typically US-centric, haha.

4.8 mln intl tourists to Orlando in 2013 and can't get an exact on 2014-15. I think it bumped up in 2014 and then slight decline (eg 2-3%) 2015. Sometimes it's broken out differently between Canada ('North America') and 'Overseas' vs. 'Intl' or some combination thereof.

Edit: Here is FL data to give you some idea of how the country visitors break down by percentages, Orlando's tourist visitation (~66mln) is 43% of all FL visitors (~105 mln),and they track each other pretty closely.
Canada accounts for 27% of all intl visitors, Brazil 14%, and UK 10%, Germany 3%, Mexico 3% (2014)

 

[brb1006]

Lost the ranch, lost Candy corn acres, lost the worst parade Ive ever seen on US soil....yet no replacements.

Are you talking about Mickey's Soundsational Parade?

 

[BernardandBianca]

It does look lovely now, even though the theming makes no sense and walking through with any design expert will reveal so many flaws. But the question really is who is going to spend to shop and/or dine here? Some places are going to be huge ... Boathouse and Morimoto, both faves of mine, appear to be safe. And any place that sells cupcakes. But how many flip-flop/sandal/shoe/hat outlets that don't sell Disney-branded crap do you need? All when the economy is tanking again, regardless of what people on Wall Street or in DC want you to believe.

We've gone to DS an number of times, over the past few years and over the past few months (the AMC movies are the closest to where we live, so we're fairly forced to go), and walked through the old and new sections in the past two weeks (family in town), so this comment is based on recent views. As we were going through the newly-opened area, the SO stopped, looked around, and opined quite clearly that the whole place brought to mind the Irvine Mall. Upscale, name retailers, fancy restaurants, an attempt to appear elegant, but at most, a fairly empty mall hoping to lure rich people in. We mentioned that, other than the area originally built as the Marketplace, there is nothing to even suggest that you are near to a Disney facility, let alone being on property. Why in the world would WDW build an area that appears to purposely avoid referring to it being Disney. Totally beyone our comprehension.

As to the restaurants, we've done Morimoto and the Boathouse and Splitsville from the newcomers, and basically feel "Been there, done that, no need to do it again", though the Peking Duck at Morimoto was pretty good and its architecture was beautiful.

 

[brb1006]

In a humorous twist of fate, the Candy Corn Acres decorations were designed knowing that the Sunshine Plaza wouldn't be long for this world, and that the décor would eventually get moved to the Bountiful Valley Farm area. Of course, the DCA redo turned out to be far bigger than anybody would have imagined in 2006, and the Farm area got decimated in the process (though bits of it are still hanging around)

Agree that DLR's Halloweentime needs help. Other than moving the upcharge parties to a park with more attractions (at a much higher price), there is noticeably less now than when it halfheartedly debuted a decade ago. DCA hardly participates any more despite being the focal point in the early years, and much of DL's offerings have been completely watered down through the years. HMH is growing tired and overstays its welcome on an annual basis, and seasonal entertainment is practically nonexistent

Does Disneyland still have the Halloween parade?

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

My BMWs are brand new, Ive never fished, except on message boards, the current Mrs Sak still hangs around like a bad smell, none of my daughters have a drug issue though they can all handle their drink like their dad, years of training. I think your condemnation of my wardrobe choices is bollox quite frankly, dont know what that says about your Disney hot poop?

 

[FerretAfros]

We mentioned that, other than the area originally built as the Marketplace, there is nothing to even suggest that you are near to a Disney facility, let alone being on property. Why in the world would WDW build an area that appears to purposely avoid referring to it being Disney. Totally beyone our comprehension.

Why would Disney build something, with constantly reminding people that it's owned by Disney? It's worked before...

Once upon a time, it wasn't simply slapping characters and the word "Disney's" on every title that made something uniquely Disney. It was the storytelling, details, and attention to experience that set them apart. I'm foolishly optimistic that the more restrained design of Disney Springs shows that WDI is still capable of designing those sorts of environments, and the higher-ups are still willing to approve them.

Disney Springs was always intended to be a supplement to the theme park experience, much like the themed hotels around property that also don't "scream" Disney to some. At a certain point, there are only so many characters a person can stand. And given that the shopping center is intended to appeal to convention goers and the like, I think they made a very smart decision to give it a broader theme. Even if that theme is simply "generic higher-end shopping center"

 

[HMF]

When I saw the headline initially I thought it was ironic considering the topic of Phil Holmes as President of DL was a sentiment expressed by many of the hardcore Haunted Mansion fans because Phil hates the HMH Overlay. I had to explain to the DL faithful why that would be a bad idea but since that is not what is happening (Thankfully) I am happy that Chapek has the common sense to see that Anaheim has been running a better operation for the past decade and hope this can bring WDW out of it's dark ages.

 

[bugsbunny]

Using Vero as an example of dues increases isn't really fair

Sure it is. I've been following it for years. It goes up EVERY year and being that Vero is one of the first, of course its the highest right now. But THAT is exactly what you will have with Saratoga and Bay Lake as they "mature" from years of heavy use. I see others are now in the $5-6 range per point and EVERY year they will climb. NEVER go down, just up. It's inevitable that the rest will end up with fees similar to Vero as they age. As things get older, they cost more to maintain.

 

[asianway]

Sure it is. I've been following it for years. It goes up EVERY year and being that Vero is one of the first, of course its the highest right now. But THAT is exactly what you will have with Saratoga and Bay Lake as they "mature" from years of heavy use. I see others are now in the $5-6 range per point and EVERY year they will climb. NEVER go down, just up. It's inevitable that the rest will end up with fees similar to Vero as they age. As things get older, they cost more to maintain.

No....Vero never reached full build out, the entire south parcel ended up being sold and not developed. Therefore the dues will never be spread to a larger owner base as was the original plan. They will always be an outlier

 

[clemmo]

Somehow I don't believe the 18-24 months behind but it is coming from a reliable source so that scares me a bit. To me it looks more like 12-15 months but again I don't know as much

 

[TP2000]

Yup. Look, the market can only supports so many upscale retailers and Millenia has plenty and Saks closed there... Nordstrom couldn't make it at The Florida Mall because O-Town is an outlet mall/Walmart type of market. These stores are in very pricey leases and I don't see half of them there in three years. Locals are not going to go there to shop when barely anything can be had that you can't get elsewhere without dealing with the typical Disney hassles like crowds.

Dining too is soon going to be too overbuilt. Right now you have two majors closed in Fulton's and PH and STK just opened. You may even get a bounce because DIS raised prices and because Flying Fish has been closed all year. But I just don't see all of those lasting. Splitsville is struggling quite a bit I'm told.

You mentioned canaries in coal mines, but Nordstrom leaving the Orlando market two years ago and abandoning its 174,000 square foot building was the biggest canary there is. When the suberbly managed Nordstrom execs in Seattle decide its time to pack up and vacate your city, you know things aren't as rosy as your Chamber of Commerce wants them to seem.

Orlando is left with one Nordstrom Rack outlet, the exact same footprint Nordstrom has in Boise, Idaho. As a point of reference, within a 20 mile radius of Disneyland in Orange County, California there are six Nordstrom department stores and three Nordstrom Racks. (Plus a gaggle of Bloomingdales', Neimans', and a Saks)

And yet TDO thinks Disney Springs can support all these upscale restaurants and boutiques that will need locals to help pencil out the books for half the year? How do you do that when your local market demographics appear to be equitable in spending power to Boise, Idaho?

 

[bugsbunny]

No....Vero never reached full build out, the entire south parcel ended up being sold and not developed. Therefore the dues will never be spread to a larger owner base as was the original plan. They will always be an outlier

Gotcha. But take a look at the rest of them. They are already over $6.

 

[alphac2005]

A two-year old story from the Sentinel that I recall reading that explains a bit about the fact that O-Town can't support high-end retail ... which really makes me wonder about that next housing bubble that's going to explode.

http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...-mall-20140721_1_florida-mall-millenia-outlet

The Central Florida area is in the lower tier of large metropolitan areas with respect to household income. Even with the addition Nemours, various tech and health incubators that have brought much better paying jobs, the bottom line is that the area is still heavily dependent on the service industry. When we lived in Orlando, we were among the fortunate that could afford to shop at Mall at Millenia, but those who usually can, are usually wise enough with their money to not do so. Locals can't support the Disney Mall, most of the American tourists can't, and with a combination of so many of these brands bringing their outlets directly into Asia and the strength of the dollar, the usual incentives for international tourists to buy while their here quickly evaporate. Simply put, the build out of Disney Springs seems to have a lot of long-term question marks.

The biggest disconnect with the company is that there is either parity or even greater pricing on goods and services with Southern California. That flies in the face of all logic. At least at Disneyland, there isn't even a question about the greater cost of living. My kids went out to DL with my mother a month ago and they paid less for items in food and clothing than we did at the MK the prior month. Mister Gecko is all so wrong... greed is not good.

 

[choco choco]

Parks on the left coast have also been very uncrowded this summer. Since there haven't been massive shootings, possibly with terrorist ties, or killer gator attacks on property, and since DLR doesn't have very large Brazilian or British tourist bases, one must wonder if Disney has finally hit the ceiling on what US consumers can or are willing to pay for a day (or more) of MAGIC.

Even Micechat has noticed that the parks have been particularly quiet. For what it's worth, I don't think it's a uniquely Disney thing. I went to Universal Studios Hollywood last Saturday. I arrived at the parking lot at 3pm, and was lead to the old parking structure because they hadn't even filled it up enough to spread to the new parking structure. Even cracked a joke about how Uni spent so much money on their ginormous new structure only to have it now sit empty.

Park sure didn't seem that busy. Harry Potter Land (this was my first time going) wasn't even close to inundated. The restaurant (I forget the name) was basically empty tables. Bar next to it dead, bartenders basically fooling around with nothing to do. Photo spots had no waits, I waltzed into a couple of them without even knowing it because of the lack of fanfare. By 6pm, the big Harry Potter ride had a posted wait of 20 minutes (in reality it was less than 10), which meant I got to ride it three times.

You get the idea. This was supposed to be their industry-changing new offering, but either theme parks just aren't a thing this summer or (my hope) they've become so expensive that people realize they aren't worth the prices anymore.

 

[21stamps]

You mentioned canaries in coal mines, but Nordstrom leaving the Orlando market two years ago and abandoning its 174,000 square foot building was the biggest canary there is. When the suberbly managed Nordstrom execs in Seattle decide its time to pack up and vacate your city, you know things aren't as rosy as your Chamber of Commerce wants them to seem.

Orlando is left with one Nordstrom Rack outlet, the exact same footprint Nordstrom has in Boise, Idaho. As a point of reference, within a 20 mile radius of Disneyland in Orange County, California there are six Nordstrom department stores and three Nordstrom Racks.

And yet TDO thinks Disney Springs can support all these upscale restaurants and boutiques that will need locals to help pencil out the books for half the year? How do you do that when your local market demographics appear to be equitable in spending power to Boise, Idaho?

In Boca Raton we have Nordstrom, Bloomingdales, Nieman Marcus, and Saks 5th Avenue, all as bookends in one mall. All do well, and all are in direct competition with each other. There's also a lot of great stores inside. If the Nordstrom would have been in Mall at Millenia it may have done better, in my opinion anyway. I know that my friends aren't going to go to Mall at Millenia and then driving to a different mall for Nordstroms, I think a lot of people probably felt the same and the sales, or lack of, proved it correct. I do not think they can sustain a large designer market, but I think the shops at Disney Springs are a good balance of not too expensive and extremely popular-maybe you don't have a sephora or lacoste or anthropologie in your area- these could be very exciting stores to shop at for someone who doesn't have one at "home".

 

[21stamps]

The Central Florida area is in the lower tier of large metropolitan areas with respect to household income. Even with the addition Nemours, various tech and health incubators that have brought much better paying jobs, the bottom line is that the area is still heavily dependent on the service industry. When we lived in Orlando, we were among the fortunate that could afford to shop at Mall at Millenia, but those who usually can, are usually wise enough with their money to not do so. Locals can't support the Disney Mall, most of the American tourists can't, and with a combination of so many of these brands bringing their outlets directly into Asia and the strength of the dollar, the usual incentives for international tourists to buy while their here quickly evaporate. Simply put, the build out of Disney Springs seems to have a lot of long-term question marks.

The biggest disconnect with the company is that there is either parity or even greater pricing on goods and services with Southern California. That flies in the face of all logic. At least at Disneyland, there isn't even a question about the greater cost of living. My kids went out to DL with my mother a month ago and they paid less for items in food and clothing than we did at the MK the prior month. Mister Gecko is all so wrong... greed is not good.

There are several very nice communities in Orlando-in the past 20 or so years people were actually moving there instead of just moving away.lol
I think you're underestimating the mindset of a typical Orlando Florida man or woman if you think they don't spend their money on a decent wardrobe.lol- at least in all of the newer areas.
The stores at Disney Springs are popular stores for most people, which already exist in almost every big city. I don't know why everyone is acting like they opened up some "only for the rich" outdoor mall. It isn't Worth Avenue, Bal Harbour, or Rodeo Drive.

I don't have a Sprinkles where I live..so I'm beyond thrilled to buy a cupcake there when visit WDW! The shopping I don't really care about, but the personalized hand painted Toms are on my radar.

I'm trying to remember the word of the week is "perception" though, and that I probably can't change someone's perception. So I'll leave it at that.

 

[SorcererMC]

the bottom line is that the area is still heavily dependent on the service industry.

quote for emphasis.

 

[21stamps]

quote for emphasis.

I wish I could provide the link. This is a good article. These communities all shop at the mall at millennia. And they're all doing much better now than they were just a few years ago.

 

[BrerJon]

Perhaps 3 = Intl Tourists who shop 'til they drop.

The problem w/ that is, what happens when they stop coming in droves? (rhetorical; we know what happens).

I think lots of the retailers sign up because they know they will be exposed to guests who perhaps don't have those brands in their home countries, and it's a good place to give them exposure.

Also, with the exchange rate it has historically been quite cheap for the British, and even the Brazilians, to purchase things in Florida at much reduced rates, so even a premium product at Disney Springs might be reasonable for the international guest.

But I wonder if the stores' planning factored in a crashed pound when signing leases? Unlikely any of the British are going to be buying $50 flip-flops any time soon, that's for sure.

 

[TP2000]

But I wonder if the stores' planning factored in a crashed pound when signing leases? Unlikely any of the British are going to be buying $50 flip-flops any time soon, that's for sure.

Like most of the Brexit fears, I think they are highly overplayed by clickbait journalists.

The Pound hit a low of $1.38 back in February '16 when Brexit wasn't a thing and many Brits began dreaming up their summer vacation plans. After a few weeks of Brexit shock and this week's announcement of the new Prime Minister the Pound is up to $1.33 today, with futures sentiment that there's more strength ahead.

That's a 5 cent drop from February's low that shouldn't impact flip-flop sales too much.