A Spirited Summer Special (AKA Phil Holmes Takes Anaheim!)

[dreamfinder]

Speaking of excellent ice cream, apparently Hershey's sells ice cream and it is fantastic....

Pretty sure it's not the Hershey's of which you speak. I see their trucks regularly and they all have disclaimers on the side. ®PRODUCTS OF HERSHEY CREAMERY CO. - NOT AFFILIATED WITH HERSHEY'S CHOCOLATE. -> www.hersheyicecream.com/aboutus.html

Wait....did you say a 21day pass? That is unheard of to an American....

WDW does love to offer cheap long term tickets to UK residents. (Maybe other countries as well)

 

[SorcererMC]

And that's where the problem lies: Those visitors all have to exchange their home currency for dollars. And if you look at numbers from 2016 as compared to 2012, the same amount of local currency from 2012 will buy far fewer dollars in 2016. I used the exchange rates from today and 7/13/2012 to compare and if you adjust to today's exchange rate and assume that the same amount of Euro, British Pound and Canadian Dollar will be spend by the tourist, today's numbers would be:
Germany: $984 (9.3% decrease), UK: $820 (15.3% decrease), Canada: $591 (22% decrease)

If you then also consider that certain costs of the vacation are rather fixed (like theme park tickets, hotel and food) and therefore require a bigger share of vacation spending, I would argue that the real drop of money being spend on shopping my international tourists if even bigger. Getting into the international tourist shopping business is a risky thing. There will be really great years, but also really bad years as exchange rates are so volatile.

This is great and thank you for this. Seeing that -22%, I see now why Canadian tourism to Orlando has been down, the stronger US$.
Agreed on the risky strategy, keep in mind that it is usually a coordinated effort between the public and private sectors. Presumably, the rewards for TWDC up to this point have far outweighed the risk, depending on how large of a consumer segment it is for them. There is speculation that exchange rates will become more volatile as a consequence of the Brexit (and other intl trade affairs)....so, greater uncertainty in the intl tourist market should be expected from here on out.

Edit: and should have been expected before as well....

Edit#2: Re: 'coordinated effort'. Increasing Intl tourists to the US has been part of the Natl Tourism Strategy since at least 2012, with President Obama making his WDW Main St speech in January, and again making comments specific to WDW tourism in March 2013 in the Export Council remarks (Iger is a member).

 

[DznyGrlSD]

Does Disneyland still have the Halloween parade?

they didn't last year - we saw Paint the Night

 

[UpAllNight]

Wait....did you say a 21day pass? That is unheard of to an American....

Yeah it's basically just £20/$30 more than a 14 day pass. Don't plan on spending 21 days in Disney but as it's 'consecutive days' it'll give us the opportunity to visit early in the holiday and also late.

Edit- things I'll probably cut back on is the novelty tat I bought last time around that ive never used since I got back I'll still do the 'tourist thing' and eat where we want too.

 

[SorcererMC]

Just got confirmation but expect some 'rearranging' in Anaheim tomorrow.

I think it will be safe to say that after these changes that One Disney is officially dead, even though TDO will probably act like it is business as usual.

Given your confirmation, I will go ahead and link to that article dated 07-05-16 , it's a profile of Disney Chief HR Officer Jayne Parker. I see it as laying the groundwork or preemptive for the HR changes you've said (as well as future potential layoffs).
http://www.talentmgt.com/2016/07/05/making-talent-dreams-come-true-at-disney/

And if they think it's still 'business as usual' for Orlando, I gather that they are in for quite a rude awakening.

 

[asianway]

Oh, and funny story about Disney and how one branch of the company, despite its storied history where you'd almost think it coined the term 'synergy', doesn't know what another is planning.

But DLR marketing was planning on using Tower of Terror as a centrepiece of its Halloweentime ad campaign. Apparently, Colglazier and Co were so busy crowing about bastardizing a classic attraction with Marvel IP that the word this was happening just never filtered out. So imagine the joy in a department that can't use ToT in its marketing and doesn't know whether it can use Ghost Galaxy yet either.

Nope, you really can't make this stuff up (well, we know some bloggers who do, but you know what I mean!)

Mouseinfo reporting Pixar parade to go dark Halloween to Spring. That about lines up with the TOT overlay, though I have a hard time believing the scope of the work requires it, more likely cost savings

 

[MerlinTheGoat]

Shanghai cuts at WDW and DL were a 2015-16 phenomenon. Just that.

And, yes, they were ordered from the highest levels of the company. Absolutely.

But how the resort is run on a day-to-day period is an ongoing effort, something before #ThanksShanghai and after. And there are many ways to make the bottom line look better without touching the Guest experience. The amount of bloat and waste at TDO is mind boggling at times (it does resemble our government often).

So, there's no contradiction at all, really.

Chappie just wants WDW run more like DL. That isn't a bad thing, by and large.

I absolutely think that's a good thing, we can all agree with that. I'm glad to hear that it could be a correctable problem on the local level as opposed to the higher ups at Burbank (who are likely never going to change their ways at this point). The reason I was somewhat confused is due to the recent notion that "TDO" is effectively dead now and that Burbank was running the show. If what you say is true, then i'm hopeful.

However i'm not certain if flying WDW leaders out to Disneyland will really do much good. Phil Holmes for instance kept HM in relatively good condition (one of the few that were), so his ability to run things seems connected to his personal tastes. And George Kalogridis' lengthy career with WDW has seen wide variations in quality. So I suspect WDW leaders are aware they have issues and may even know how to fix them. My theory why they haven't- laziness and disinterest. If i'm correct, Chappie's approach probably won't work. Education can fix ignorance, but only strict discipline and punishment can stop laziness and disinterest (including exec firings). Burbank has to clean up the filth themselves AND continue to monitor WDW after.

As always, correct me if i'm way off here '74, i'd love it if my pessimism turns out to misplaced for a change.

And as a closing thought- What if they do manage to turn things around, and Burbank turns white at the sight of a higher bill? I'm extremely curious as to how Chappie will react when his order affects their bottom line. If he gets cold feet at the rising costs, i'm concerned that they could reverse gears and issue an immediate return to cuts.

 

[alphac2005]

Greetings, Mr. Pilcher!

Yes, this is by no means a Disney issue alone. This is an economic reality. UNI, on both coasts, is struggling as well ... almost shockingly so with Potter in its first summer in Hollywood.

People keep pretending that the US economy is fine, when it isn't. It just isn't!

From the data that we've getting in our industry, consumer spending is ticking up and we're seeing wholesale improvements in areas of the country that have lagged behind in the recovery. So, here's the bigger question: Are Disney and Universal properties starting to hit a brick wall because of their pricing? I'd be interested to see how properties like Cedar Fair are doing right now with more affordable options. We've talked for years on this board about a ceiling and would it ever be hit? Astronomical price increases during the past several years could be a major answer to the slowdown let alone a strengthening dollar affecting different groups of international visitors on each coast.

 

[danlb_2000]

Pretty sure it's not the Hershey's of which you speak. I see their trucks regularly and they all have disclaimers on the side. ®PRODUCTS OF HERSHEY CREAMERY CO. - NOT AFFILIATED WITH HERSHEY'S CHOCOLATE. -> www.hersheyicecream.com/aboutus.html.

I never realized they weren't related to Hershey chocolate! Either way, it's really good ice cream.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Just got confirmation but expect some 'rearranging' in Anaheim tomorrow.

I think it will be safe to say that after these changes that One Disney is officially dead, even though TDO will probably act like it is business as usual.

If true, that could be very good news. Now bring back my damn napkins.

 

[Rodan75]

If true, that could be very good news. Now bring back my damn napkins.

I never understood why having park, hotel and attraction specific napkins was so important. It seems like a silly waste of time, energy and money to have any printed napkins. Spend the time and money on employee salaries, benefits and recruiting.

 

[Bocabear]

I never understood why having park, hotel and attraction specific napkins was so important. It seems like a silly waste of time, energy and money to have any printed napkins. Spend the time and money on employee salaries, benefits and recruiting.

that money would never end up going to the employees...and the specific napkins are all part of the details... Some people notice others don't... Why bother with theming at all? Why have attraction-specific uniforms? Restaurant-specific menus or china?.....Knock out the details and you have a Six Flags park...though I think they have printed napkins too...

 

[Rodan75]

that money would never end up going to the employees...and the specific napkins are all part of the details... Some people notice others don't... Why bother with theming at all? Why have attraction-specific uniforms? Restaurant-specific menus or china?.....Knock out the details and you have a Six Flags park...though I think they have printed napkins too...

Napkins are not a slippery slope...c'mon.

 

[BubbaQuest]

From the data that we've getting in our industry, consumer spending is ticking up and we're seeing wholesale improvements in areas of the country that have lagged behind in the recovery. So, here's the bigger question: Are Disney and Universal properties starting to hit a brick wall because of their pricing? I'd be interested to see how properties like Cedar Fair are doing right now with more affordable options.

Cedar Fair seems to be doing well -- revenue up 4% with a 3% increase in attendance: http://ir.cedarfair.com/newsroom/pr...Through-July-4th-Holiday-Weekend/default.aspx

I do think Disney and Uni have hit a wall based on pricing, but I think they hit that wall a while back with US tourists and are now just starting to hit it with other tourists based on falling exchange rates.

The US spending uptick is interesting, mainly Amazon, gasoline, and sporting goods: http://www.wsj.com/articles/online-gas-purchases-fuel-may-retail-sales-increase-1465907558. This implies to me more stay-cations (hey kids lets go play ball in the park) since many large retailers are still struggling (Walgreens, Macys).

I think this is the most telling sign about the near future, foreign investors buying cheaper homes: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/foreign-buyers-flood-us-real-estate-but-buy-cheaper-homes.html.

However, take this all with a grain of salt. I would've bet the housing market would have crashed in 2006 and still can't believe it held on for another 2 years.

I'm not wishing any ill will on any company, but if your entire business model is built on a weak US dollar instead of giving your customers real value for their money...

 

[jakeman]

Napkins are not a slippery slope...c'mon.

Everything is a slippery slope if you grease it enough.

 

[Bocabear]

Napkins are not a slippery slope...c'mon.

everything is a slippery slope...unfortunately... Napkins today....China tomorrow... Uniforms next... it is all a progression that downgrades the final product...

 

[MerlinTheGoat]

everything is a slippery slope...

Indeed, and Disney fell down that slope a long time ago (still falling).

Speaking of which, in digging through some old boxes I found some old resort specific napkins and other cool swag (particularly Grand Floridian and Polynesian) from the early 90's. Perhaps I should upload some scans and photos and share them here sometime...

 

[ford91exploder]

everything is a slippery slope...unfortunately... Napkins today....China tomorrow... Uniforms next... it is all a progression that downgrades the final product...

Disney has already moved to the China stage, Recall that AKL once had themed dinnerware in the Villas, Now it has dinnerware which looks like it came from the Enlisted mess on any US/UK military base (i.e. heavyweight off white ceramic).

 

[marni1971]

But you voted remain so there's a vested interest in looking for the wurst.

Damn right I did!

 

[ford91exploder]

Cedar Fair seems to be doing well -- revenue up 4% with a 3% increase in attendance: http://ir.cedarfair.com/newsroom/pr...Through-July-4th-Holiday-Weekend/default.aspx

I do think Disney and Uni have hit a wall based on pricing, but I think they hit that wall a while back with US tourists and are now just starting to hit it with other tourists based on falling exchange rates.

The US spending uptick is interesting, mainly Amazon, gasoline, and sporting goods: http://www.wsj.com/articles/online-gas-purchases-fuel-may-retail-sales-increase-1465907558. This implies to me more stay-cations (hey kids lets go play ball in the park) since many large retailers are still struggling (Walgreens, Macys).

I think this is the most telling sign about the near future, foreign investors buying cheaper homes: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/06/foreign-buyers-flood-us-real-estate-but-buy-cheaper-homes.html.

However, take this all with a grain of salt. I would've bet the housing market would have crashed in 2006 and still can't believe it held on for another 2 years.

I'm not wishing any ill will on any company, but if your entire business model is built on a weak US dollar instead of giving your customers real value for their money...

As to large retailers struggling, Who wants to buy low quality overpriced merchandise sourced from low wage countries yet priced at first world prices.