And The Spirit doubts me when I write that WDW will need a 5th theme park by 2025?
And support that statement with a graph?
View attachment 102282
Graphs are not (sit down for this and take your meds!) the answer for everything.
And, as I've said in response to this in other threads, you're only extrapolating continued increases in attendance based upon TEA numbers without taking into consideration other factors like:
1.) Every park including MK have HUGE areas that are dead and could contain large amounts of people if reopened or if new things were built on empty land. In other words, the capacity is there if properly utilized;
2.) Only the MK truly has major issues with overcrowding and this has been exacerbated by closing the other parks earlier, not adding reasons for people to chose them over MK, not properly utilizing all the space that is available (see #1);
3.) Adding parks largely takes Guests from other parks. Disney can build until they destroy all of the natural beauty that attracted Walt to the area to begin with, but it can't make Americans take 3-4 weeks to visit. So adding a gate isn't a smart financial move;
4.) The costs of adding a park and infrastructure that wouldn't be another 'half day' park would be at least $4-6 billion. On top of NGE and the recently funded projects, I don't see how that's financially feasible;
5.) By your thinking, WDW will simply wind up with the same problem after Gate 5 is open for awhile. Do you think they should then open sixth and seventh gates? Can you make any argument for why it's better to add new parks than add capacity at existing ones?
6.) You don't account for Disney Guests opting to cut further days from their trips to do UNI's parks or anything else (from Legoland to the O-Town Eye and all the new stuff over there on I-Drive).
I just look at TDR where you have two extremely popular parks and no dead zones in either and constantly add new things to see and do. People spread out. It's not like WDW where Studios or FW or DAK are often empty while MK is wall to wall in many places. Of course, they also take crowd control seriously. WDW believes masking tape on the pavement and a handful of outnumbered CMs screaming while wielding the kind of flashlights you could park a 747 with are the answer.