A Spirited Perfect Ten

[Frankie The Beer]

It happens all of the time. The stock is following a trend that a lot of stocks go through. Stock prices increase, investment firms become more involved, stock prices continue to rise, the public becomes more involved, investment firms begin to buy on margins, and everyone and their aunt is making making money. They're happy, people speculate and decide to start dumping. People get worried and too begin to dump. Stock drops. Bubble bursts. Same trend, different stock. Look at Apple's stocks, Marsh McLennan's stocks if you don't believe me. Believe the data.

And theories like this, or believing theories like this is why the legitimate rich 2% stay rich and the rest keep fighting for 15 dollars per hour. Believe it or not, Disney stock at this time is a license to print money and will be as long as Iger is on the throne. Among investing pundits Iger is the best CEO in the world, and with his track record, you really can't argue the stocks incredible growth under his watch. DIS, right now, is no bubble stock, that's not even logical. When Iger is gone, all bets are off, but now, when you have a film department producing smash hits with the big gun yet to be released, a consumer product division that makes money hand over ham fist and a theme park division that humiliates the competition without significant investment, DIS is a bargain, not bubble.

 

[flynnibus]

Well, I do disagree with you there.

Unless it's tied into wanting Disney to offer their product and part of a larger deal (i.e. Coke), I don't think it benefits most companies to do so. We have Norway's tourism board on record saying that's why they didn't renew - they saw no tourism uptick from it. I'm sure the story has been similar with other entities in other countries - it was seen as part "oh we need to be a part of this before all the spots are gone" and "this will increase tourism dollars".

I believe the only reason Disney got away with it EPCOT, particularly Future World, so much in the early days was simply because of the cultural/media cache around the concept of the park (a year-round ultimate World's Fair). It was never about the people in the parks actually being exposed to the "partnership" as a type of advertising, like most sponsorships (NFL, as you mentioned), it was about being able to put out a press release showing that they were associated with this forward-looking project called EPCOT. And a nice perk to be able to offer private lounges to impress business associates and possible investors. Basically, it looked good on paper.

If it were about direct advertising, like the sponsorships you are talking about - companies like Siemens or Raytheon who don't sell products to consumers would never have signed on.

You forget a few things...

One - how people discovered things 30 years ago vs today. Tour books and posters don't compare to walking through something. Now we have the Internet , 500 channels of tv, YouTube m, etc

Two... Companies advertise for more reasons than direct customer sales. Company image and brand awareness are very big. You don't buy the stuff GE, BASF, Siemens, Boeing, Northrop Grumman, etc sell... Yet they all advertise on consumer tv to create a corporate image with the public.

 

[invader]

And theories like this, or believing theories like this is why the legitimate rich 2% stay rich and the rest keep fighting for 15 dollars per hour. Believe it or not, Disney stock at this time is a license to print money and will be as long as Iger is on the throne. Among investing pundits Iger is the best CEO in the world, and with his track record, you really can't argue the stocks incredible growth under his watch. DIS, right now, is no bubble stock, that's not even logical. When Iger is gone, all bets are off, but now, when you have a film department producing smash hits with the big gun yet to be released, a consumer product division that makes money hand over ham fist and a theme park division that humiliates the competition without significant investment, DIS is a bargain, not bubble.

And if he leaves with his current contract ending in 2016? Stock options disappear, he sells his shares, instability occurs in upper management. Bubble bursts. I'm not saying $DIS is a bad investment I'm just wary of the hype.

Edit: spelling

 

[Bairstow]

It happens all of the time. The stock is following a trend that a lot of stocks go through. Stock prices increase, investment firms become more involved, stock prices continue to rise, the public becomes more involved, investment firms begin to buy on margins, and everyone and their aunt is making making money. They're happy, people speculate and decide to start dumping. People get worried and too begin to dump. Stock drops. Bubble bursts. Same trend, different stock. Look at Apple's stocks, Marsh McLennan's stocks if you don't believe me. Believe the data.

You're still not connecting the dots.
There are stocks that rise quickly and then fall.
Fine.
There are just as many stocks that rise quickly and plateau.
What data do you have that leads you to believe that Disney's stock in particular is one that soon is going to rapidly fall?

 

[PhotoDave219]

You're still not connecting the dots.
There are stocks that rise quickly and then fall.
Fine.
There are just as many stocks that rise quickly and plateau.
What data do you have that leads you to believe that Disney's stock in particular is one that soon is going to rapidly fall?

I rather agree with you on this point, however I don't feel that this type of rapid growth is sustainable long term. Awesome if it does, I just personally don't subscribe to the "things will always be this way" way of thinking.

The only thing that would torpedo this stock in a hurry (IMO) would be a major international incident that would disrupt American travel and tourism. Basically unpredictable events and even then it wouldn't tumble horribly, not with TWDS performance and ESPN continuing to the World WIde Leader in everything sports.

I know we went over this like 18 months ago during annual meeting/corporate governance/transparency things... but whats your take on paying a CEO/executive leadership in stock options in addition to a salary.

 

[AEfx]

What data do you have that leads you to believe that Disney's stock in particular is one that soon is going to rapidly fall?

That's what he is confused about. I don't think he understands "bubble".

The graphs do have a surface similarity. However, the Disney stock graph covers thirty five years!

If one went to the source of the generic graphic he is using, I'm guessing that's only a few years, maybe five or a decade at absolute most modeled.

 

[WDW1974]

Weekend Spirited Musings:

How come no one here seems to care (OK, I don't really care but it is news) that Disney Quest will be closing to make way for the NBA Experience (or whatever the hoops cafe is called)? I don't think the place has been relevant or worth a visit since about 2002, but it still was something. I guess this makes DRE completely dead as a business unit (no shock since they closed all ESPN Zones but the Anaheim location) ... and oh, how you don't know how much I yearned for having a B-Day party at the Club Disney in West Covina while having burgers across the street at In-N-Out.

Loved reading this piece of placed PR today: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/la-et-ct-disney-iger-20150607-story.html#page=1 ... you start a story with a conclusion (Bob Iger is great and can do no wrong) and then you simply back it up without offering other viewpoints. Totally balanced piece from the LA Times.

Anyone actually seeing San Andreas? I won't even though I find the Rock to be thoroughly entertaining (is it namedropping if I mention that I have known him too? he is far more interesting than George Kalogridis!)

A lot of friends are headed to DL for its actual 60th B-Day (when Bob Iger was supposed to be there originally) and were wondering about crowds. I don't think they have anything to worry about really. At least none of the O-Town Lifestylers will be there. They all were there in May and HAVE TO return for D23. Three trips in a little over three months? Not that group.

Can't wait for Marvel's Bus People and Pam to debut!!! They'll make billions, billions, I tell ya.

I am now being told to expect ''at least'' two more ''attractions'' to close at the corpse of The Disney-MGM Studios before the holidays. Honestly, I have no idea what Georgie K and the management of WDW Co are thinking. Guess that ''the rubes will come and thank you Jesus for park-hoppers.''

Can anyone answer me this with 100% certainty: can you get nuts on an ice cream sundae at the shop on MSUSA?

So, we have a second Triple Crown winner in my lifetime. And they said it would never happen.

Anyone who think that only Disney cuts quality/quantity and raises prices should try a Pei Wei like I did today for the first time since 2012 or 2013. This is standard American business practice because most of you allow it and, indeed, will defend it.

So, you can stay at the Waldorf Astoria at WDW this summer for $199 or get a $107 special rate at the All Stars. Yeah, that's a toughie. No MAGIC at the WA!

 

[WDW1974]

110 a share? Imagine What that would be if their theme park numbers had another 5-10M Guests were going to Orlando?

Imagine if instead of dropping all that capex in China or Hong Kong, they invested some in Orlando?

Oh wait, that's because Iger is paid in stock so it's in his personal best interest to keep the stock as high as possible at all costs....

Again, they can invest in China and Orlando ... and pretty much at every resort with just a tiny bit of the money they are using for buybacks. They opt not to.

Buying back your stock is what you do to pump value of the company up in the short term. @ParentsOf4 and others have explained this indepth in this thread and others.

 

[doctornick]

I agree, but I was looking at it from a content driven company as it once was not just a money making machine.

In the past Disney's success depended on creating good content. Now it depends on buying good content.

It gets said a lot, but I'm not really convinced that's an accurate way to look at it.

The Walt Disney Company is producing good content these days. I'd argue the entire MCU has been good content. Recent WDAS films have been good content. Pixar has made good content since being acquired and hopefully Inside Out is the start of a new trend there. Most people seem optimistic that The Force Awakens will be good quality.

It's easy to write that off as just having "bought content" but what does that mean? Selling reprints of 1960's Marvel comics would be "buying content" and just re-selling it. What the MCU is doing is taking established IP and using that as a basis for new, creative ideas.

Furthermore, I think a decent case could be made that Iger's acquisitions have been significant not just for the IP, but in the creative talent that has been brought under Disney employment (Lasseter, Feige, Kennedy, etc.).

 

[Mike S]

Weekend Spirited Musings:

How come no one here seems to care (OK, I don't really care but it is news) that Disney Quest will be closing to make way for the NBA Experience (or whatever the hoops cafe is called)? I don't think the place has been relevant or worth a visit since about 2002, but it still was something. I guess this makes DRE completely dead as a business unit (no shock since they closed all ESPN Zones but the Anaheim location) ... and oh, how you don't know how much I yearned for having a B-Day party at the Club Disney in West Covina while having burgers across the street at In-N-Out.

Loved reading this piece of placed PR today: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/la-et-ct-disney-iger-20150607-story.html#page=1 ... you start a story with a conclusion (Bob Iger is great and can do no wrong) and then you simply back it up without offering other viewpoints. Totally balanced piece from the LA Times.

Anyone actually seeing San Andreas? I won't even though I find the Rock to be thoroughly entertaining (is it namedropping if I mention that I have known him too? he is far more interesting than George Kalogridis!)

A lot of friends are headed to DL for its actual 60th B-Day (when Bob Iger was supposed to be there originally) and was wondering about crowds. I don't think they have anything to worry about really. At least none of the O-Town Lifestylers will be there. They all were there in May and HAVE TO return for D23. Three trips in a little over three months? Not that group.

Can't wait for Marvel's Bus People and Pam to debut!!! They'll make billions, billions, I tell ya.

I am now being told to expect ''at least'' two more ''attractions'' to close at the corpse of The Disney-MGM Studios before the holidays. Honestly, I have no idea what Georgie K and the management of WDW Co are thinking. Guess that the rubes will come and thank you Jesus for park-hoppers.

Can anyone answer me this with 100% certainty: can you get nuts on an ice cream sundae at the shop on MSUSA?

So, we have a second Triple Crown winner in my lifetime. And they said it would never happen.

Anyone who think that only Disney cuts quality/quantity and raises prices should try a Pei Wei like I did today for the first time since 2012 or 2013. This is standard American business practice because most of you allow it and, indeed, will defend it.

So, you can stay at the Waldorf Astoria at WDW this summer for $199 or get a $107 special rate at the All Stars. Yeah, that's a toughie. No MAGIC at the WA!

Honestly, I didn't even know Disney Quest was closing. I did see people mention something NBA was coming, maybe on OU since NBA city might be leaving Uni. I never went there anyway. Would've been cool just once though when I was a kid.

 

[doctornick]

Can't wait for Marvel's Bus People and Pam to debut!!! They'll make billions, billions, I tell ya.

I'm looking forward to The Winter Pam myself.

 

[invader]

You're still not connecting the dots.
There are stocks that rise quickly and then fall.
Fine.
There are just as many stocks that rise quickly and plateau.
What data do you have that leads you to believe that Disney's stock in particular is one that soon is going to rapidly fall?

That's what he is confused about. I don't think he understands "bubble".

The graphs do have a surface similarity. However, the Disney stock graph covers thirty five years!

If one went to the source of the generic graphic he is using, I'm guessing that's only a few years, maybe five or a decade at absolute most modeled.

If you two want to go purchase shares for 110/share be my guest. If you have any ROI a year and half from now I will be extremely impressed.

 

[Bairstow]

I rather agree with you on this point, however I don't feel that this type of rapid growth is sustainable long term. Awesome if it does, I just personally don't subscribe to the "things will always be this way" way of thinking.

The only thing that would torpedo this stock in a hurry (IMO) would be a major international incident that would disrupt American travel and tourism. Basically unpredictable events and even then it wouldn't tumble horribly, not with TWDS performance and ESPN continuing to the World WIde Leader in everything sports.

I know we went over this like 18 months ago during annual meeting/corporate governance/transparency things... but whats your take on paying a CEO/executive leadership in stock options in addition to a salary.

It's not something I know a lot about, really. Based on what little I know, I'd say performance-contingent bonuses in the form of common stock gets around a lot of the problems presented by non-vested stock options while still proffering adequate incentives, especially if the evaluation keyed to the bonuses is more frequent than quarterly and specifically designed not to coincide with stockholder reports.

If you two want to go purchase shares for 110/share be my guest. If you have any ROI a year and half from now I will be extremely impressed.

Can you tell us why you feel bearish on Disney?

 

[DoTheImpossible]

Weekend Spirited Musings:

How come no one here seems to care (OK, I don't really care but it is news) that Disney Quest will be closing to make way for the NBA Experience (or whatever the hoops cafe is called)? I don't think the place has been relevant or worth a visit since about 2002, but it still was something. I guess this makes DRE completely dead as a business unit (no shock since they closed all ESPN Zones but the Anaheim location) ... and oh, how you don't know how much I yearned for having a B-Day party at the Club Disney in West Covina while having burgers across the street at In-N-Out.

Loved reading this piece of placed PR today: http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/la-et-ct-disney-iger-20150607-story.html#page=1 ... you start a story with a conclusion (Bob Iger is great and can do no wrong) and then you simply back it up without offering other viewpoints. Totally balanced piece from the LA Times.

Anyone actually seeing San Andreas? I won't even though I find the Rock to be thoroughly entertaining (is it namedropping if I mention that I have known him too? he is far more interesting than George Kalogridis!)

A lot of friends are headed to DL for its actual 60th B-Day (when Bob Iger was supposed to be there originally) and was wondering about crowds. I don't think they have anything to worry about really. At least none of the O-Town Lifestylers will be there. They all were there in May and HAVE TO return for D23. Three trips in a little over three months? Not that group.

Can't wait for Marvel's Bus People and Pam to debut!!! They'll make billions, billions, I tell ya.

I am now being told to expect ''at least'' two more ''attractions'' to close at the corpse of The Disney-MGM Studios before the holidays. Honestly, I have no idea what Georgie K and the management of WDW Co are thinking. Guess that the rubes will come and thank you Jesus for park-hoppers.

Can anyone answer me this with 100% certainty: can you get nuts on an ice cream sundae at the shop on MSUSA?

So, we have a second Triple Crown winner in my lifetime. And they said it would never happen.

Anyone who think that only Disney cuts quality/quantity and raises prices should try a Pei Wei like I did today for the first time since 2012 or 2013. This is standard American business practice because most of you allow it and, indeed, will defend it.

So, you can stay at the Waldorf Astoria at WDW this summer for $199 or get a $107 special rate at the All Stars. Yeah, that's a toughie. No MAGIC at the WA!

My god, what's left? Two questions for you. Have you heard anything you can speak on regarding show changes at Hollywood Studios? Just wondering if they're planning on shuffling it up when they (hopefully) make the big changes in that park. Also, I always thought they missed a chance to overhaul Disney Quest with Wreck-It-Ralph. Any chance they try and bring a similar experience to Disney Springs in a new space or will they just let the concept finally die?

 

[AEfx]

It gets said a lot, but I'm not really convinced that's an accurate way to look at it.

It's easy to write that off as just having "bought content" but what does that mean? Selling reprints of 1960's Marvel comics would be "buying content" and just re-selling it. What the MCU is doing is taking established IP and using that as a basis for new, creative ideas.

I agree, it's a very "Disney fan" viewpoint and doesn't accurately reflect what is happening, nor does it reflect the realities of the times they are comparing to, or even the history of the company.

There are so many reasons that is true, but the main one with Marvel in particular is precisely as you say - the comic books that these films are based upon are no closer to their film counterparts created under Disney ownership than Snow White or Cinderella are to their source materials. They just didn't need to be paid for because of their age. And Disney himself certainly had no problem purchasing other folks stories - Peter Pan, Mary Poppins.

This myth that somehow the Walt Disney Company is known for creating unique or original stories is just that - a myth. I'm not saying that I think the Marvel films, for example, are of that same caliber quality - but this "they aren't Disney" is just a product of the Internet age and rose colored blinders about the history of the company. They have been mining existing stories since the beginning of feature film production.

Lucasfilm is a bit different, but let's face it - it's the biggest IP of all time, it pretty much invented the concept of "franchise", and it was the coup of the century to bring it under the Disney banner because there never really were two more perfect matches in terms of IP strength and corporate ecosystem to support it. Even the prequels couldn't kill it - they still made billions.

 

[AEfx]

If you two want to go purchase shares for 110/share be my guest. If you have any ROI a year and half from now I will be extremely impressed.

I don't gamble generally - in Vegas or on Wall Street. I do wish I had bought some a few years ago, though - for sure, just like I wish I had placed that bet on a table in Vegas I once saw pay out 10:1.

 

[novawildcat18]

NBA Experience is taking the place of DisneyQuest??

 

[Mike S]

I agree, it's a very "Disney fan" viewpoint and doesn't accurately reflect what is happening, nor does it reflect the realities of the times they are comparing to, or even the history of the company.

There are so many reasons that is true, but the main one with Marvel in particular is precisely as you say - the comic books that these films are based upon are no closer to their film counterparts created under Disney ownership than Snow White or Cinderella are to their source materials. They just didn't need to be paid for because of their age. And Disney himself certainly had no problem purchasing other folks stories - Peter Pan, Mary Poppins.

This myth that somehow the Walt Disney Company is known for creating unique or original stories is just that - a myth. I'm not saying that I think the Marvel films, for example, are of that same caliber quality - but this "they aren't Disney" is just a product of the Internet age and rose colored blinders about the history of the company. They have been mining existing stories since the beginning of feature film production.

Lucasfilm is a bit different, but let's face it - it's the biggest IP of all time, it pretty much invented the concept of "franchise", and it was the coup of the century to bring it under the Disney banner because there never really were two more perfect matches in terms of IP strength and corporate ecosystem to support it. Even the prequels couldn't kill it - they still made billions.

I think it's because Marvel most likely would've been making the same movies whether Disney bought them or not. Except for "I've got no strings" being in the Ultron trailers of course which I think fit perfectly (I haven't seen the actual movie yet). That's how I see that argument anyway. Would The Force Awakens have been made the same way without Disney though?

 

[invader]

Can you tell us why you feel bearish on Disney?

I simply can't see 110 being the true value, it has to be somewhat inflated to be at 110. Studios will not see the success of all of the movies they're putting out, they're going to oversaturate the market and the general populace can't afford 15 dollar tickets to all movies. TFA will do fine. The parks division will most likely take a hit, they've made ticket prices way too high for what they're offering per park. Comcast's investments in their domestic resorts are going to hurt them. The final straw will be the loss of revenue through cable subscriptions. Where they're at now is just not sustainable.

I don't gamble generally - in Vegas or on Wall Street. I do wish I had bought some a few years ago, though - for sure, just like I wish I had placed that bet on a table in Vegas I once saw pay out 10:1.

Agreed. 15/share six years ago would be a great starting point no matter the price now.

 

[WDW1974]

The Walt statue in Tokyo is at the end of World Bazaar, on a little terrace overlooking the Central Plaza. And it's very easy to miss.

It wasn't a Country Fair, it was the Disneyland State Fair '87, to be exact. And yeah, they put a Ferris Wheel in the middle of the Hub right in front of the Castle. And it was super tacky, and the Imagineers threw a fit.

Even the paying visitors complained. So they moved it after a month.

Except they moved it to the front of the park, right in front of the train station. Seriously.

Yes. That horrendous event (much like the much more ballyhooed EPCOT Circus Spectacular) was the only reason we even know what a Partners statue is.

The most interesting/telling item from the pics is that there is not a SINGLE stroller, wheelchair or ECV present. Amazing how much more space you have without them.