I usually agree with you. Not this time. Folks who spend two (or more) days at UNI (or even exploring the new I-Drive Live complex) ARE going to take days away from Disney. Just a day hurts. Two days really hurts. When people start taking (and they already do) Central FL vacations and not WDW ones, The Mouse will be in trouble.
My gut says the ignorance and arrogance of the folks at Disney will allow this to happen largely before they wake up to it ... they had 88% room capacity this past quarter, right? (of course, many units at high end Poly and BC were not in service and many at moderate CBR were also taken out) That's the number I think they focus on. They don't seem to get that just like DVCers, who in ever increasing numbers, opt to stay at WDW, but limit their time in Disney parks or dining at Disney locations, there's nothing stopping people from staying at AoA or PO or BW for a week and only going to WDW parks 2-3 days. I'm not sure we aren't close to the day that happens.
I don't base my opinion on my frustration with how WDW has been run for the last decade. I base it on the numbers Disney and Universal report on their financial disclosures.
Right now, Disney's domestic parks are kicking some major financial backside, with record attendance, record occupied room nights, record Per Capita Guest Spending, and record Per Room Guest Spending. Next quarter should see Disney break the $300/night PRGS barrier for the very first time.
Financially, WDW is back to being the juggernaut it was last century. Operating margins are up, back to historically normal levels. Whether you like it or not, more people than ever are visiting WDW and it's largely because of the vacationers that are being drawn to Orlando by Diagon Alley.
The first phase of WWOHP popped the WDW Bubble. Back then, WDW attendance and hotel occupancy declined as, for the first time, Guests combined WDW and Universal visits in appreciable numbers. Now each time Universal adds something, it's not stealing any
more days from WDW. As it was in 2010, Universal remains a 2-day visit for most vacationers. Now when Universal adds something exciting, Uni ends up drawing more business to Orlando, which ends up helping both Uni
and WDW. That's not going to change until Universal figures out how to become more than a 2-day visit. Uni's banking on a water park being that draw; I wish I could be as sure.
This year's approximate 1% decline in domestic available room nights is unimportant. The last 2 quarter's approximate 2.3 million
occupied room nights are all-time records for Disney. Never have so many rooms been filled at WDW and never have Guests paid so much for them.
It doesn't matter if you or I like what's happening at WDW. Instead, we need to accept that WDW's business has been booming for the last 2 quarters.