A Spirited Perfect Ten

[ParentsOf4]

I just wanna know when construction starts at tdr so we can get a time frame! Isn't there a d23 in japan this year?

OLC disclosed a 10-year ¥500 billion investment plan beginning in 2014. Last year, capex spending increased ¥16.7 billion or about $140 million.

The following graph from OLC's financial presentation might be of interest to you. As you can see, they're expecting a huge jump in capex this year (note fiscal year 2016 ends in March 2016), the biggest since the construction of DisneySea.

P.S. The following should give you an idea of what's on the plate for TDL's medium-term plan:

 

[Nmoody1]

Cheung has been pushing certain contracts that not only did Crawford not agree with, but they were in direct conflict with existing policies (and even contracts) with global vendors out of Burbank. Cheung would make decisions and insist they had to be regardless of any consequences for the project to continue to move toward completion

could this possibly be where the Pepsi deal came from? I did some work during the Beijing games and Pepsi was hardly known in the Chinese market at the time - they did some very good branding work to confuse consumers (by turning packagaing an almost coca cola red), I know Pepsi was a sponsor of Disney way back when, but I can't help but wonder how Coca Cola feel about the pepsi deal in China, not too thrilled I'd imagine!

 

[Lee]

This originally started out as a response to @TalkingHead but @jt04 happens

I never was a "comic book guy" despite my geekieness. However I have been keeping up with the MCU through all it's films and a little of the Internets (a series of spirted tubes for the Lutzes). I have a pretty good understanding where they are bringing the "Miracles" from because much like the hillbilly @Lee I didn't stop watching THE Avenger! The MCU are moving towards Thanos and then I dunno the 8th Civil War. For now the Marvel brand* has my attention, and I will be following it until the Inhumans. After that I make no promises!

I've never read a single Marvel comic. Ever. (I prefer books without pictures.). What I love are large "universes" and long form storytelling. King's Dark Tower books, X-Files on TV, and the MCU for examples.

It's nice how this season of SHIELD has dovetailed into the Avengers story. I like how the TV show seems to run parallel to the films, occasionally meeting up contribute to the larger story. Masterful use of story planning.

I'll be seeing the movie in a couple of hours. Quite looking forward to it.

 

[GoofGoof]

It really is funny when they bring in Barkley to talk about anything and everything. I think the reason companies do it is because they know he's going to tell his unfiltered opinion regardless of the topic. It really is rare to find that anywhere these days.

I have to say I find him entertaining and his opinions sometimes really do surprise you. He comes on local sports talk radio occasionally and its always a can't miss event. You never know what he'll say but you can be sure he isn't gonna hold back. It's refreshing to hear.

 

[BrianLo]

According to the 2015 Refurbishment Calendar, iasw is due to remain open for the rest of the year. Same with the Raceway and StarJets. None of the plans for NFL can start without these being moved/removed. It doesn't seem any significant construction is starting in Fantasyland this year, although there are two exceptions in Peter Pan and the Carousel (closing for 9 and 10 months respectively). I'm guessing the first work to start will be a makeover of existing facades from the tacky carnival tents to medieval-style buildings (like DL and DLP).

That's a good observation, I was also referencing the graph that @ParentsOf4 posted. It's clear by the capex that something should get underway by March 2016. It also would not surprise me that the DL fantasyland upgrades all find their way to Tokyo starting with Pan.

If I had to make a solid bet, I think the timeline will have closures starting in Jan 2016, with an eventual opening date of late 2018/early 2019 based on their predicted 'fiscal year 2018 introduction' timeline.

It's pretty much going to have the same construction/project timeline as Avatar... But I'm sure we'll hear about how much faster it was with revisionist history.

 

[Mike S]

That's a good observation, I was also referencing the graph that @ParentsOf4 posted. It's clear by the capex that something should get underway by March 2016. It also would not surprise me that the DL fantasyland upgrades all find their way to Tokyo starting with Pan.

If I had to make a solid bet, I think the timeline will have closures starting in Jan 2016, with an eventual opening date of late 2018/early 2019 based on their predicted 'fiscal year 2018 introduction' timeline.

It's pretty much going to have the same construction/project timeline as Avatar... But I'm sure we'll hear about how much faster it was with revisionist history.

It doesn't help that Avatar was announced in 2011 vs. Tokyo's plans being announced just about 2-3 years before completion.

 

[BrianLo]

It doesn't help that Avatar was announced in 2011 vs. Tokyo's plans being announced just about 2-3 years before completion.

That's what I mean though, people just haven't been really paying attention to this project and think it was "just announced":

-Internally imagineering were working on the Tokyo fantasyland expansion in Fall 2013 (at least that we know of when Carsland got thrown out).
-OLC actually made announcements about the project with their March 2014 annual report
-Height test balloons were up in June 2014
-Artwork was shown by OLC in October 2014 and now again in April 2015
-Construction may not begin until 2016
-The project will likely take 2.5-3 years from that point.
-If you go back to their 2014 announcement, they actually weren't even thinking about starting construction until 2017-2018, but that was seriously pushed up when they were caught off guard by stellar 30th anniversary number. Prior to that OLC thought the parks had hit maturity and were looking to invest mostly elsewhere.

Contrast that to Avatar, the only difference is they may have announced Avatar 6 months earlier and waited 1 year later to show artwork.

In my opinion I don't think either was mishandled, but it's funny that this gets a complete pass and Avatar was clearly mishandled when they actually both are taking 5 - 6 years from conception to opening. The exception being Frozen, which benefited from doing stellar numbers just when OLC was trying to finalize plans for an 8th port, it's definitely on an excellerated timeline.

I'm looking forward to all these projects very, very much by the way! The sheer number of dark rides coming our way in 2017-2019 is astounding.

 

[GoofGoof]

It doesn't help that Avatar was announced in 2011 vs. Tokyo's plans being announced just about 2-3 years before completion.

That's probably why they are waiting to make a Star Wars announcement. If they announced it last year and it didn't open until 2020 fanboys would be moaning about the project taking as long as Avatar. Since they own the IP and there is no need to publicly disclose a contract with a 3rd party they can design and develop the project now and wait until 2-3 years before it opens to officially announce it. So we should hear something around 2017 or so. That will make everyone happy right? Not even close. People want an announcement at D23 this year, right? Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

I know the easy solution that would make everyone here happy would be to announce it this year and open it in 2-3 years, but since that's not happening if we assume a 2020 opening date what's the better path to take? Announce it this year but not have it open until 2020 (similar to Avatarland) or wait until closer to opening to officially announce it. I don't think they would have announced Avatar in 2011 if it wasn't a material contract with a 3rd party company. They were going to be forced to disclose it in their SEC filings anyway.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

That's probably why they are waiting to make a Star Wars announcement. If they announced it last year and it didn't open until 2020 fanboys would be moaning about the project taking as long as Avatar. Since they own the IP and there is no need to publicly disclose a contract with a 3rd party they can design and develop the project now and wait until 2-3 years before it opens to officially announce it. So we should hear something around 2017 or so. That will make everyone happy right? Not even close. People want an announcement at D23 this year, right? Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

I know the easy solution that would make everyone here happy would be to announce it this year and open it in 2-3 years, but since that's not happening if we assume a 2020 opening date what's the better path to take? Announce it this year but not have it open until 2020 (similar to Avatarland) or wait until closer to opening to officially announce it. I don't think they would have announced Avatar in 2011 if it wasn't a material contract with a 3rd party company. They were going to be forced to disclose it in their SEC filings anyway.

SWL won't open for another 6 years (2021). The kids cutting their teeth on rogue whatever it is will be in High School by then.

 

[GoofGoof]

SWL won't open for another 6 years (2021). The kids cutting their teeth on rogue whatever it is will be in High School by then.

True, but completely irrelevant to my point. If it's not opening for 6 years then would you prefer to hear about it now (D23 this summer) even if we are told the project won't be complete until 2021 or wait until 2017 or 2018 to have an official announcement?

 

[PhotoDave219]

That's probably why they are waiting to make a Star Wars announcement. If they announced it last year and it didn't open until 2020 fanboys would be moaning about the project taking as long as Avatar. Since they own the IP and there is no need to publicly disclose a contract with a 3rd party they can design and develop the project now and wait until 2-3 years before it opens to officially announce it. So we should hear something around 2017 or so. That will make everyone happy right? Not even close. People want an announcement at D23 this year, right? Damned if you do and damned if you don't.

I know the easy solution that would make everyone here happy would be to announce it this year and open it in 2-3 years, but since that's not happening if we assume a 2020 opening date what's the better path to take? Announce it this year but not have it open until 2020 (similar to Avatarland) or wait until closer to opening to officially announce it. I don't think they would have announced Avatar in 2011 if it wasn't a material contract with a 3rd party company. They were going to be forced to disclose it in their SEC filings anyway.

I venture to speculate that the reason they're dragging their feet is because they don't know what they're doing....

 

[Disneyhead'71]

True, but completely irrelevant to my point. If it's not opening for 6 years then would you prefer to hear about it now (D23 this summer) even if we are told the project won't be complete until 2021 or wait until 2017 or 2018 to have an official announcement?

That is irrelevant too. If it's not opening for another 6 years, it's not opening for another 6 years. People are going to whether they announce it or not. The fact they have no intentions on opening it for another 6 years is the ridiculous part.

 

[PhotoDave219]

That is irrelevant too. If it's not opening for another 6 years, it's not opening for another 6 years. People are going to ***** whether they announce it or not. The fact they have no intentions on opening it for another 6 years is the ridiculous part.

Exactly. There's no excuse they don't even have something open in time for the new movie.

If they're looking to spread out costs, simply do it in phases.

 

[Captain Chaos]

Exactly. There's no excuse they don't even have something open in time for the new movie.

If they're looking to spread out costs, simply do it in phases.

Then people would complain out it opening in phases LOL.

 

[GoofGoof]

That is irrelevant too. If it's not opening for another 6 years, it's not opening for another 6 years. People are going to ***** whether they announce it or not. The fact they have no intentions on opening it for another 6 years is the ridiculous part.

Exactly. There's no excuse they don't even have something open in time for the new movie.

If they're looking to spread out costs, simply do it in phases.

I don't disagree with any of that. I think pretty much everyone is an agreement that it's too long to wait.

The specific post I quoted was referencing that even though the plans for Tokyo are going to take about as long as Avatar it doesn't seem as bad since they waited until 2-3 years before opening to announce the plans vs 6 years for Avatar. If that's true then they are better off waiting to announce things.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

We have been seeing all kinds of announcement strategies from the 2 resorts over the years. Universal has a huge E Ticket that is OBVIOUSLY King Kong under construction and yet they haven't announced it. They announced the last hotel by dropping a press release on their media site without sending it to anyone. Every media station in the market hs already posted the blueprints for Uni's new water park, yet not a word from Uni. All the Disney fans complain how Uni over hypes everything. I just don't see that. At least not since Mummy. They mostly don't say much of anything.

But the most frustrating big announcement so far has been the Avatarland debacle. Yes, they obviously announced it too early in the process. But theses are the media savvy professionals that held a media event to announce benches in the F! Theater. And 3 separate grand opening media events for AoA. Haha.

No one seems too be able to NAIL an announcement these days. Is it really that hard?

 

[ParentsOf4]

We have been seeing all kinds of announcement strategies from the 2 resorts over the years. Universal has a huge E Ticket that is OBVIOUSLY King Kong under construction and yet they haven't announced it.

King Kong has been officially announced. The following is from last quarter's earnings call:

At NBCUniversal, capital expenditures increased $61 million, or 5.3% to $1.2 billion during 2014 primarily reflecting increased investments in Theme Parks. In 2015, NBC Universal's capital investment plan remained relatively stable at 2014's level with over half directed to our Theme Park segment as we continue to invest in attractions, including Harry Potter and the Fast & Furious attractions in Hollywood and a King Kong attraction in Orlando. Investments in our theme parks are clearly generating strong returns as we drive increased attendance and per capita spending. We are transforming our parks into must-see destinations and are very enthusiastic about their potential.​

 

[Disneyhead'71]

King Kong has been officially announced. The following is from last quarter's earnings call:

At NBCUniversal, capital expenditures increased $61 million, or 5.3% to $1.2 billion during 2014 primarily reflecting increased investments in Theme Parks. In 2015, NBC Universal's capital investment plan remained relatively stable at 2014's level with over half directed to our Theme Park segment as we continue to invest in attractions, including Harry Potter and the Fast & Furious attractions in Hollywood and a King Kong attraction in Orlando. Investments in our theme parks are clearly generating strong returns as we drive increased attendance and per capita spending. We are transforming our parks into must-see destinations and are very enthusiastic about their potential.​

They acknowledged it (accidentally). One line during an earnings call isn't an announcement.

 

[Rteetz]

Eisner and Iger sat next to each other at the Clippers game

https://sg.news.yahoo.com/photos/nb...executive-officer-robert-photo-054357865.html

 

[ParentsOf4]

They acknowledged it (accidentally). One line during an earnings call isn't an announcement.

This was not an accident. This was part of the prepared statement read during the introduction of the call, prior to the Q&A.