A Spirited Perfect Ten

[CaptainAmerica]

I know that several families here in Maryland chose not to plan vacations over spring break or in June because of the chance of snow day makeups. It's possible this was the case in other states as well, although I wouldn't know if it was enough to affect attendance numbers at WDW. What I do know is, as long as school districts here continue to cancel school every time an inch of snow falls, then families should just get used to no longer having a week long spring break.

 

[OSUgirl77]

Exactly!

 

[WDW1974]

Yep. I don't see what all the fuss is about. Although attention speaking websites headlining $100+ steaks and making it sound like per person are likely to blame.

Speaking of attention seeking sites (and individuals behind them), do you know if they are planning a dine around/preview event with freebies to the O-Town Lifestyler base? Or will they have to be invited to the one Disney is doing with their 'media event' later this month?

 

[WDW1974]

Do you think all of these new locations will be forced on DDP? I hope not. In order to have the flexibility to offer unique items they really can't follow the DDP model. It will also potentially lead to 180 day reservations and lack of availability. People traveling for work to a conference aren't going to book 6 months in advance.

I hope not. Truly. But I can't see how Disney wouldn't try and force it on them.

 

[WDW1974]

We tried Shula's at the Swolphin last year and didn't care for it. Maybe we should give it another try. Or perhaps their other locations are better? Its a shame if if Morton's is going downhill, we always liked it.

I have never had a full dinner at the Shula's at the Dolphin because I eat at them at home and elsewhere. As to Morton's, I haven't been since 2013. It was good, but not up to previous standards at all.

 

[WDW1974]

Don't pay very well? I had to get an article pulled down of HuffPo not that long ago. Cost me a fortune.

Too bad you don't have an in with Willow Bay. She'll censor for nothing for the right people!

 

[LAKid53]

About 75-90 minutes depending on traffic conditions. I'd highly advise a stay at Vero the night before cruising.
Angie and I did it in November and it is just a smart relaxing way to ease into a cruise.

Thanks WDW1974. We took the Disney bus from our resort to the Port on our first cruise and the bus trip was about the same amount of time.

I definitely will look into the VB property.

 

[MKCP 1985]

Spirited Rip UNI Musing:

If Disco Yeti is so bad, and he is, then what do you call blowing your money scene on Gringotts by having a giant hole in the wall visible when your finale effect fails most of the time? Where's the angst and indignation?

People give Disney a pass on Disco Yeti and the Travel Channel shamelessly runs its old materials telling people how impressive the swooping yeti is. Of course that same program which ran on Easter morning tells viewers the Studios park needed a landmark so the Hat was built. Stop, already, Travel Channel!

That said, if Hogwarts changed the game for how people view the quality of Universal attractions, a major fail in the newest and greatest is going to set Universal back, eventually, unless the same cheer crowd shows up to say how great the Gringott's attraction is even without the major money finale effect.

Personally, I am not giving Disney's Animal Kingdom for my 4th day unless the yeti is fixed, so that frees up time to visit the Harry Potter stuff at . . . oh, never mind.

 

[Phil12]

Yes, too bad Bob Iger wants everyone to think Disney is in control of the CCP's new Disney Resort.

And no one on Wall Street (and they all know, trust this Spirit on that one) seems to think this should be a concern for shareholders going forward.

At this point, just getting a foot in the door in China is worth the risk. It's certainly a gamble but Iger would be foolish not walk in while the door is open.

 

[Frankie The Beer]

Clearly many of you are more flush than I am. I cannot imagine paying $115.00 for two, before tip, for dinner and drink. I guess I'll go hang out the tank top and jorts crowd.

For what it's worth.....I also usually won't pay money to see sequels at the movie theater. It's just like putting my money where that $115 steak will eventually end up.

I once spent $1750 including tip for a majestic dining experience at Alinea in Chicago, and that was getting the "cheap" wine pairings. I did have Chef Grant Achatz personally make my desert in front of me on my table.

 

[MichWolv]

Some of NextGen was most definitely capital expenditure and falls under a depreciation schedule. That even includes some of the development.

But, when we decompose NextGen, very little of the "nuts and bolts" were groundbreaking or cutting edge. MB's, RFID, the underlying infrastructure (including servers, network, etc.) all are pretty much basic blocking and tackling, and all have been done before and are in production in much larger and more real time environments than Disney hosts.

As a matter of fact, Disney isn't really in the big leagues when it comes to data size, throughput, complexity, criticality or timeliness - quite the opposite. If the Exxon/Mobils, Walmarts, Dow Jones, and Amazons are at the "PhD level", Disney would be somewhere in 8th grade by comparison. They have overnight batch windows and no mainframe, (unless that's changed recently) just to set where they actually are on the spectrum

So, what caused the huge cost overruns? The Data and the Business Rules the had to be turned into code behind everything Disney is trying to accomplish - presenting those FP ressies to future guests that places them in the Park they want them in and when they want them there. That huge - "datawarehouse- like" entity they want to be able to mine and manipulate. Use it to give those future realtime offerings of discounts, or table service openings based on where you physically are at that moment, and many, many, more, complex algorithms.

That's what was incredibly expensive, that's what caused the cost overruns. That was what was so complex about NextGen since taking those usually horribly defined and documented business requirements from the Execs, Sales, Marketing, Ops etc., and turning them into production-ready code is an art not a science and can take hundreds of man-years to accomplish.

Which is why the Accentures of the world are brought in - very expensive, but they and their brethren are pretty much the only ones who can do it. Neither Disney nor any other company retains that skill set.

Unfortunately, once you "prove" the concept of the software/data warehousing project - the largest expense, it ceases as a depreciable effort. The timing can be very grey, but definitely once you move into true beta (not that 2 year long beta Disney declared publicly). Then, those software development expenses go into FY operating costs - into the maintenance, enhancement buckets. That could have started all the way back to Dec 2012 when I saw CMs, their families and selected guests running around and showing up at rides like HM for their scheduled times that appeared on their IPads.

That was the problem for Disney and what we all saw as the pillaging of Ops budgets across the board for an FY or two. Getting the silly thing to work had crossed over into real, current FY, money that had to come from budgets they didn't plan for.

It happens all the time. And the less sophisticated a corporation is in data, infra. and just in their overall understanding of what they want (Disney), the higher the risk and the higher percentage of cost and time-to-value overruns. Even the most sophisticated corporations overrun by an average of 30 percent. They weren't sophisticated to start. Hence the issue....

And @ParentsOf4, please correct me if I've misstated any of this. I've been more on the running these instead of accounting for these, side of things....

I am not @ParentsOf4, but can comment on the accounting.

Capitalization of costs of software developed for internal use ends no later than the point at which the software is substantially complete and ready for its intended use after all substantial testing is completed. You are correct that the timing can be grey, but it far after "proof of concept". Indeed, costs incurred to test internal-use software can be capitalized and depreciated, rather than expensed directly.

Further, costs of enhancements can be capitalized and depreciated instead of expensed directly, while maintenance costs cannot be capitalized.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I am not @ParentsOf4, but can comment on the accounting.

Capitalization of costs of software developed for internal use ends no later than the point at which the software is substantially complete and ready for its intended use after all substantial testing is completed. You are correct that the timing can be grey, but it far after "proof of concept". Indeed, costs incurred to test internal-use software can be capitalized and depreciated, rather than expensed directly.

Further, costs of enhancements can be capitalized and depreciated instead of expensed directly, while maintenance costs cannot be capitalized.

Additionally, costs that would not be capitalizable on their own such as testing or QA are often capitalizable if part of the initial rollout of an integrated system. Though not assets on their own, they can be treated as components of the overall "system" asset.

 

[Phil12]

is this supposed to lead into the 'Walt was a bad guy and he's no different than Eisner or Iger " debate?

Families fight. Families with major money fight even more. And very little of it ever gets out, even when they go to court against each other as frequently happens.

When discussing Walt Disney most information about him comes from various public relations departments used by the company over the years. I often see quotes here that are attributed to Walt Disney that in fact are things that he never said. I see stories about how Walt Disney created Mickey Mouse that are pure fiction.

Walt Disney was a tough as nails businessman much in the same vein as Eisner and Iger. Except that Iger has never been as cutthroat in his business practices as Walt Disney and Eisner.

 

[Funmeister]

At this point, just getting a foot in the door in China is worth the risk. It's certainly a gamble but Iger would be foolish not walk in while the door is open.

How is it worth the risk (especially at that price tag) just to get your foot in the door? There are better ways it could have been done. Better ways it SHOULD have been done.

The Shanghai expansion has been reckless by the WDC and the impact could be devastating.

At the same time it could be a home run with a huge payoff. Not sure that is worth the risk though.

 

[Phil12]

I'm reasonably certain he didn't buy all the land he did to create a giant timeshare resort. I'm reasonably sure he wouldn't have seen the point of selling that land and building Celebration and Golden Oak. I'm reasonably sure that he'd act in a much more ethical way than the people who run what his company has become do.

Timeshares didn't exist in the USA when Walt was still around, however, I think he would have loved the concept. His EPCOT idea was very much like a timeshare including depriving the residents of voting rights and no land ownership. Of course, Walt's idea for EPCOT was much more dystopian in that residents would work for the various onsite companies and have their rent deducted from their pay. So I'm reasonably sure that Walt would be very proud of the DVC.

 

[Phil12]

How is it worth the risk (especially at that price tag) just to get your foot in the door? There are better ways it could have been done. Better ways it SHOULD have been done.

The Shanghai expansion has been reckless by the WDC and the impact could be devastating.

At the same time it could be a home run with a huge payoff. Not sure that is worth the risk though.

Every major company in the USA is manufacturing and/or doing business in China. Cheap labor and big profits are hard to ignore. TWDC is late to the party IMO.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Shula's is consistently very good. Morton's used to be my favorite in that sector, but then the economy collapsed, my finances changed and they were bought by Landry's. You should read some reviews nationally. I'd rather go to the Outback, like I did last week, and get a decent quality sirloin for $15.79 or a decent filet for $20.49, than pay expense account prices sans the account for a mediocre experience.

I'm a big fan of Longhorn, I've always had good steaks there at reasonable prices.

 

[RSoxNo1]

I just cook my own anymore. I want it between rare & medium rare, basted in olive oil with just salt & pepper on it.

Cooked over either charcoal or oak.

Preferably a nice free range black angus rib eye or filet.

Served with a nice Cabernet. Maybe a Camus or a silver oak but generally the Coppala Director's cut Cabernet.

Sweet potato. Fresh bread.

Dammit I'm hungry now.

You're welcome to come over and cook for me.

 

[Funmeister]

Every major company in the USA is manufacturing and/or doing business in China. Cheap labor and big profits are hard to ignore. TWDC is late to the party IMO.

Ok. That is not what your original post was about though. It was about the risk being worth getting their "foot in the door."

I hate to tell you this but Disney (and the third parties it licenses merchandise to) have been in China for years, when it comes to merchandising (manufacturing) as you mention. Is that what you are talking about per your most recent post? or the entertainment business? Just trying to follow you.

 

[Phil12]

Ok. That is not what your original post was about though. It was about the risk being worth getting their "foot in the door."

I hate to tell you this but Disney (and the third parties it licenses merchandise to) has been in China for years, when it comes to merchandising (manufacturing) as you mention. Is that what you are talking about per your most recent post? or the entertainment business? Just trying to follow you.

The theme park business needs to expand to China.