A Spirited Perfect Ten

[Tony Perkis]

Getting Star Wars fans excited is about as difficult as shooting fish in a barrel. Even Bob can do it.

Yep. There was even excitement for Revenge of the Sith after the first two prequels were released. Myself included.

The only reason I'm excited about Episode VII is because George Lucas is in no way, shape, or form involved. His story ideas were thrown out by Disney. Probably my favorite thing Disney has done in years.

 

[WDW1974]

Oh @WDW1974 - one more thing if you can touch on it, a knowing nod is fine as well. Iger again has asserted this 800 million expansion for SDL. What is that supposed money actually building? If that can't be shared yet, do you know if it is actually for something outside of the list of attractions you posted over a year ago?

The quote in question...

You have no idea how many times I've asked this question and I don't have a satisfactory answer as I see nothing under construction that wasn't planned before the extra 800 million dollars were put into the project.

NOTHING.

 

[WDW1974]

My guess: the answer is probably "Soarin', two temporary Performance Venues (Eastside & West side), a restaurant on the plaza, and Toy Story Playland (or its replacement)." Those are the additions from the Early Master Plan to the Late Master Plan. The extra $650 million is probably covering cost over-runs.

Any major additional attractions ready by opening day would have shown foundation work in last year's satellite pics.

Soarin has been planned since almost Day 1 ... Toy Story is not only very cheap, but was thrown in years ago now. ... And those venues and one dining locale aren't costing $800 million even with Disney, even in China.

Now, it could be going in (or has) to rip up stuff and rebuild it up to Disney/west standards. I have had nervous stammers when I've suggested this.

 

[Magenta Panther]

Here's what Iger said about Frozen today:

“I don’t think that we can underestimate the impact that ‘Frozen’ has had across our company and all of our businesses,” Iger said during an earnings call Tuesday. “Do we think ‘Frozen’ has legs?” he said. “We absolutely believe that this is the beginning of a long-term franchise.”

The first part of that would be an upcoming seven-minute “Frozen” short film, “Frozen Fever,” which will be released along with Disney’s upcoming live-action “Cinderella” next month.

The short, Iger said, should generate further growth for consumer products buying.

Well, whoop-de-frickin'-doo. I'm not much of a fan of Frozen, but that last line made me want to hurl. The man just has no shame, does he? The short, Iger said, should generate further growth for consumer products buying. Frozen is great because it sells a lot of stuff. Right, Bob. Gad. I hate this guy. What is he doing as head of Disney? He's the Scrooge to Walt's Fezziwig. He's the Wormtongue to Walt's King Theoden. He's the Blue Meanie to Walt's Sgt. Pepper. A more soulless representative of a legendarily benevolent family entertainment company I simply can't imagine.

Go away, Bob. Just go away.

 

[WDW1974]

No ripping, just sadness.

Let's start with the basics.

Domestic Parks & Resorts (P&R) revenue for the quarter is $3.2 billion, up a very strong 10.6%, it's best quarterly increase since 2Q13. This was driven by a 7% attendance gain.

Depending on how you look at it, this is great or horrible news for you and I. For the first time in ages, higher prices were not the primary driving force behind revenue growth.

The upside is price increases have slowed down. The downside is that the parks are more crowded than ever.

Also on the plus side, domestic hotel occupancy was an outstanding 89%.

Attendance is way up; hotel occupancy is way up.

These are the kinds of domestic numbers Disney wants to see.

WDW needs to build!

As I posted before on this link, WDW needs a 5th theme park.

With numbers like these, Disney has got to be investing in its theme parks, right?

Ugh, guess again.

Let's talk about the numbers fans of WDW should truly care about:

• Domestic P&R Depreciation: $297 million
• Domestic P&R Capital Expenditures: $239 million

Even with Disney Springs and Pandora construction ongoing, capex is an ungodly low 7.4% of revenue. This is getting into Six Flags territory.

Meanwhile, capex is $58 million less than depreciation. Again, this is with Disney Springs and Pandora ongoing.

I shudder to think what's happening to maintenance and upkeep.

WDW and DLR are getting old and they just don't care anymore.

Thanks for the rundown. I like what you said, but can't like the post because I fundamentally disagree with your assertion that a fifth gate is needed. It's about the only thing where I think you go off the rails a bit.

No, what is needed is expansions at all four parks and significant new attractions at every park that isn't named MK to drive traffic to the other gates and so those parks are not over-burdened.

Vacation time isn't increasing in the USA. Further cannibalizing your business makes no financial sense. And why would you add another gate when you have huge swaths of land that can be developed and/or repurposed?

As to the hotel occupancy, 89% is indeed very healthy, but is there a breakdown between Anaheim and Orlando? And look at how many rooms were out of inventory at WDW with major rehabs at BW, BC, Poly, WLV and CBR all taking place in 2014 ...

 

[Gabe1]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-results-beat-expectations-1422999022

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102389868#.

Numbers for @ParentsOf4 to rip apart ...

Nothing more than @ParentsOf4 numbers!

 

[TP2000]

As to the hotel occupancy, 89% is indeed very healthy, but is there a breakdown between Anaheim and Orlando? And look at how many rooms were out of inventory at WDW with major rehabs at BW, BC, Poly, WLV and CBR all taking place in 2014 ...

89% for all of Disney's American hotels is very healthy, but I can't help but think that even if Disneyland's hotel stock were running at 99% year after year (which probably isn't far from the truth) it would just be a couple drops in the bigger bucket.

Disneyland Resort has 2,358 Disney-owned hotel rooms, plus 50 DVC villas in the Grand Californian. That's less than 10% of the Disney-owned room stock of WDW.

Walt Disney World Resort has 23,371 Disney-owned hotel rooms, plus 4,357 DVC villas across property, and 800 campsites and 409 cabins at Fort Wilderness. Combined that's 28,937 Disney-owned "rooms" that would make up an occupancy statistic for WDW. (This doesn't count the rooms at the Swan, Dolphin, Four Seasons, or Shades of Green, which show up on someone else's financial reports)

How does one even compare the two properties? Or expect anything above an 80% occupancy rate at Disneyland to have any meaningful impact on overall Parks & Resorts occupancy rates?

 

[ParentsOf4]

89% for all of Disney's American hotels is very healthy, but I can't help but think that even if Disneyland's hotel stock were running at 99% year after year (which probably isn't far from the truth) it would just be a couple drops in the bigger bucket.

Disneyland Resort has 2,358 Disney-owned hotel rooms, plus 50 DVC villas in the Grand Californian. That's less than 10% of the Disney-owned room stock of WDW.

Walt Disney World Resort has 23,371 Disney-owned hotel rooms, plus 4,357 DVC villas across property, and 800 campsites and 409 cabins at Fort Wilderness. Combined that's 28,937 Disney-owned "rooms" that would make up an occupancy statistic for WDW. (This doesn't count the rooms at the Swan, Dolphin, Four Seasons, or Shades of Green, which show up on someone else's financial reports)

How does one even compare the two properties? Or expect anything above an 80% occupancy rate at Disneyland to have any meaningful impact on overall Parks & Resorts occupancy rates?

Sorry to quibble but ...

For the purposes of financial reporting, DVC units are counted as 2-bedroom equivalents. The way Disney counts them, the actual number of DVC units at WDW is significantly less than 4,357. In their annual report, Disney reports 3,647 DVC units in total including those at Aulani, DLR, Hilton Head, and Vero Beach. Disney also reports that WDW has "approximately 23,000 rooms and 3,000 vacation club units". The 3000 DVC units is very close to the actual number of 2-bedroom equivalents at WDW (until PVB opens) but, as you note, the 23,000 hotel rooms is low by a few hundred. (Even official Disney sources don't agree on the exact number but it is in the low 23,000's.)

In total, WDW has about 89% of all domestic hotel and DVC capacity.

Disney does not include campsites, Swan, Dolphin, Shades of Green, Four Seasons, etc. in its occupancy numbers. Campsites are not rooms while the other properties are not operated by Disney.

Echoing what you wrote, even in its worst days, DLR hotel occupancy has never been below 80%. Because DLR hotels have less than 10% of the total number of rooms and occupancy always is at least 80%, it has little effect on changes to the overall domestic hotel occupancy rate reported in Disney's 10Q.

Although there are more domestic DVC units than DLR hotel rooms, DVC units consistently run at high occupancy rates. Like DLR hotels, DVC occupancy rates don't change enough to significantly impact the 10Q number.

In the latest reported quarter, available room nights is down 29K, reflecting ~320 rooms taken out of service, representing slightly more than 1% of all domestic rooms.

To your larger point, changes to the domestic occupancy rate is mostly about what's happening at WDW hotels, although the extra 1% of domestic rooms taken out of service means the 89% domestic hotel occupancy rate is inflated by about 1% compared to last year.

 

[PREMiERdrum]

DCA ...was ... Well, I had gotten food poisoning or norovirus the night before at the media/celeb party (very different from today's blogging-whorefests). I barely made it a few hours in the park and almost puked on Paul Pressler, who I knew, in the elevator while heading back to my room at the GCH around noon. I should have gone to the ER, but went to bed instead. Yep. Really.

For DCA version 1.0, this seems completely fitting.

 

[BrerJon]

Nah, it looks like it could be promising IF it lives up to that art.

I can't think of a single project Disney has done in the last fifteen years where the final reality lived up to the concept art.

 

[ford91exploder]

You have no idea how many times I've asked this question and I don't have a satisfactory answer as I see nothing under construction that wasn't planned before the extra 800 million dollars were put into the project.

NOTHING.

Perhaps it's an incentive to complete by the new commit date

 

[ford91exploder]

Thanks for the rundown. I like what you said, but can't like the post because I fundamentally disagree with your assertion that a fifth gate is needed. It's about the only thing where I think you go off the rails a bit.

No, what is needed is expansions at all four parks and significant new attractions at every park that isn't named MK to drive traffic to the other gates and so those parks are not over-burdened.

Vacation time isn't increasing in the USA. Further cannibalizing your business makes no financial sense. And why would you add another gate when you have huge swaths of land that can be developed and/or repurposed?

As to the hotel occupancy, 89% is indeed very healthy, but is there a breakdown between Anaheim and Orlando? And look at how many rooms were out of inventory at WDW with major rehabs at BW, BC, Poly, WLV and CBR all taking place in 2014 ...

This is the great thing about globalization in the US unless you are a government employee if you are one of the few who still get vacation time you are afraid to use it and risk being seen as a slacker

In most of the civilized world there is mandated paid vacation yes even in China!.

 

[ford91exploder]

Soarin has been planned since almost Day 1 ... Toy Story is not only very cheap, but was thrown in years ago now. ... And those venues and one dining locale aren't costing $800 million even with Disney, even in China.

Now, it could be going in (or has) to rip up stuff and rebuild it up to Disney/west standards. I have had nervous stammers when I've suggested this.

Probably the most likely scenario given that it's China and quality standards are flexible unless your PM watches like a hawk

 

[the.dreamfinder]

BTW, just want to repeat that I believe Jay will get the No. 2 role before this fiscal year is out. And that it won't mean a **** thing unless Bob gets hit by a bus (Disney, of course) before his contract is up.

That's what he deserves for not expanding the monorails!

 

[ford91exploder]

Yep. There was even excitement for Revenge of the Sith after the first two prequels were released. Myself included.

The only reason I'm excited about Episode VII is because George Lucas is in no way, shape, or form involved. His story ideas were thrown out by Disney. Probably my favorite thing Disney has done in years.

Unfortunately that probably means like every Disney movie since Mulan there will be will be a comic sidekick (I knew I hated that ball robot) to play off the main characters.

Let's just say I'm expecting something like Tangled on Tattoine

 

[justavoice]

Meanwhile, capex is $58 million less than depreciation. Again, this is with Disney Springs and Pandora ongoing. via Pof4


Hmm, so Iger is using Eisner's investments to prop up his bottom line for stockholders by $58 million or is that
magic bands?

Thanks Pof4 for details great job as always.

 

[flynnibus]

If Angie doesn't want to go, then she can stay home eating pretzels und drinking beer! I bet she goes!

When you have these asides... this is the relationship I can't get out of my head..

 

[NearTheEars]

Well, he's not planning on a permanent Frozen presence either, apparently, aside from that slapdash makeover of Maelstrom, and Frozen as we all know is a huge success. So even if the new Star Wars films hit it big, that's no guarantee of anything ambitious being built in the parks, at least not as long as Iger's in charge.

Maybe they will retheme Ellen's Energy Adventure into an attraction about the Force!

 

[Goofyernmost]

Pen and Teller usually back their "bull****" videos with information and studies.

Not by "magic" or some weird "ancient aliens" book that says Midoclorians came from who knows where and made cyborg jesus live in our brains

Also, Vacinations have been proven to WORK since the creation of them.

Its like you running into a wall, you will get hurt, right?
Also thousands knows that running into a wall will hurt them based on experience and proof.
Now imagine the anti vacers as akin to someone who keeps running full speed towards a wall. All because some dude with special intere$t$ decided to shout everywhere how "running into a wall is healthy".

You missed my whole point Cesar. The point was to the person that hasn't done their research (I'm talking about real research, not something just done randomly on the web.) Penn and Teller are no more experts in the field then the celebrity that is against vaccinations. They are also just entertainers therefore have credibility only with fans not necessarily with the scientific community. I believe that I also said that I agree with them, but, in the vast world of the internet.... how do you choose who to believe. Go someplace serious and irrefutable, not listen to a comic act on You-Tube.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Nah, it looks like it could be promising IF it lives up to that art. People are hungry for details, even people who will never visit (unlike yours truly), and here's a little bit. I have high hopes for this, but worry they'll rely too much on screens and projections.

But we will see. This isn't Tim Delaney's Pirate Mountain ride that was created for HKDL.